2014 Rotation and You Ain't Gonna Like It......

[TheLeviathan]

I agree this is the most cynical analysis possible and at the very least they will add some slop.

 

Even one legit FA doesnt significantly improve this rotation. This isn't that cynical, it's just realistic. These are the options we have and the ones we are most likely to have. If they don't look good, it isn't because of cynical analysis -it's because of the talent available.

 

This, and other responses, are unfairly chomping at the bit to label people negative/cynical rather than fairly evaluating the talent here and most likely to be here next year.

[howieramone1406390264]

I think Correia and Gibson are the only two set for next season. Hopefully in the next 40+ games one of the others will claim a spot. I have no doubt Ryan will bring in a free agent for another. I expect the starting rotation to improve from dismal to below average. Even with a below average starting rotation, I expect the Twins to finish around .500 in 2014. I'm expecting the leap to average in 2015.

[edavis0308]

even one legit fa doesnt significantly improve this rotation. This isn't that cynical, it's just realistic. These are the options we have and the ones we are most likely to have. If they don't look good, it isn't because of cynical analysis -it's because of the talent available.

 

This, and other responses, are unfairly chomping at the bit to label people negative/cynical rather than fairly evaluating the talent here and most likely to be here next year.

 

.......he's a witch!!!

[drjim]

Even one legit FA doesnt significantly improve this rotation. This isn't that cynical, it's just realistic. These are the options we have and the ones we are most likely to have. If they don't look good, it isn't because of cynical analysis -it's because of the talent available.

 

This, and other responses, are unfairly chomping at the bit to label people negative/cynical rather than fairly evaluating the talent here and most likely to be here next year.

 

We clearly have different definitions of cynical.

 

I agree the internal options to start the season in the rotation are not good. It is cynical to assume Terry Ryan will do nothing to improve the situation.

 

One legit free agent won't significantly improve the rotation but it will improve it and there is reason to hope for some internal improvement or the emergence of someone like Meyer.

[notoriousgod71]

Since I can't believe Jon Garland has never pitched for the Twins, he's my guess for our "big" FA signing.

[TheLeviathan]

One legit free agent won't significantly improve the rotation but it will improve it and there is reason to hope for some internal improvement or the emergence of someone like Meyer.

 

It has been suggested here that a pattern like last year's additions would represent non-cynical. I find that absurd. Last year we added a motley pile of barely-there options. If, and I think it's perfectly reasonable to assume this, we do something similar - this is not cynical.

 

You can hope all you want, that's call optimism. This original post was realistic, you've confused a lack of promise with a cynical analysis. Short of an out of character move by Ryan, this is what we are looking at. With Meyer's injury and only recent return, it's highly unlikely he'll be in the rotation as an impact player.

 

I share your hope to get beyond this very bleak picture, but running around with cynical labels is just plain unfair to the reality of what is being analyzed.

[ThePuck]

I'm not sure is more cynical...that Ryan will mostly stick with pitchers now, or that he'll go out and sign the kind of pitchers he signed this year. Both seem equally unappealing. I guess we should flip a coin and see which is worse and call the other side cynical...

 

Anyway, wouldn't this place be more joyful if we never criticized Gardy, Ryan or Pohlad and kept our critical comments to the players only? Or maybe just Morny and Mauer since they're the high priced guys? It'd cut down on actual reality, but maybe it'd stop the name calling...which is supposed to be curbed...

[Mike Sixel]

Cynical, silly negative.....blah, blah, balh. How about we discuss the topic, and not each other with labels?

[drjim]

It has been suggested here that a pattern like last year's additions would represent non-cynical. I find that absurd. Last year we added a motley pile of barely-there options. If, and I think it's perfectly reasonable to assume this, we do something similar - this is not cynical.

 

You can hope all you want, that's call optimism. This original post was realistic, you've confused a lack of promise with a cynical analysis. Short of an out of character move by Ryan, this is what we are looking at. With Meyer's injury and only recent return, it's highly unlikely he'll be in the rotation as an impact player.

 

I share your hope to get beyond this very bleak picture, but running around with cynical labels is just plain unfair to the reality of what is being analyzed.

 

I would agree the assessment of the options for the opening day rotation that are currently on the roster was pretty accurate.

 

However, to then take the position that the rotation will not be further improved is indeed the most cynical position one can take. It could also be correct (though I highly doubt it).

 

I am indeed an optimist but I really honestly believe Ryan will do something to improve the state of the rotation going into next year. Mostly because it won't be that hard to do so. As you said, whatever he does do won't significantly improve the rotation on its own, it will also require significant internal improvement or emergence from guys currently in the organization to make said significant improvement.

[drjim]

I'm not sure is more cynical...that Ryan will mostly stick with pitchers now, or that he'll go out and sign the kind of pitchers he signed this year. Both seem equally unappealing. I guess we should flip a coin and see which is worse and call the other side cynical...

 

Anyway, wouldn't this place be more joyful if we never criticized Gardy, Ryan or Pohlad and kept our critical comments to the players only? Or maybe just Morny and Mauer since they're the high priced guys? It'd cut down on actual reality, but maybe it'd stop the name calling...which is supposed to be curbed...

 

I think they do sign a free agenthe that is better than what they signed last year.

[drjim]

Cynical, silly negative.....blah, blah, balh. How about we discuss the topic, and not each other with labels?

 

I don't think I called anyone anything, but perhaps you read differently.

 

I do think people should own their positions and not be so offended.

[TheLeviathan]

However, to then take the position that the rotation will not be further improved is indeed the most cynical position one can take. It could also be correct (though I highly doubt it).

 

You can honestly believe whatever you want about Ryan, but it's not cynical to expect his moves to be low-impact. That's all we've seen from him throughout his tenure. It's realistic to expect a long-time tendency to continue. This rush to label people cynics seems like a merit badge people want to earn so they can say "hey, at least I'm still a real fan" or some other hogwash. There are far simpler ways to share your optimism without trying to attach a label on someone to facilitate your argument.

 

You are welcome to suggest that we will significantly add to our talent base this offseason - I hope we do - but I could very easily see Ryan look at Diamond, Worley, Gibson, Correia, Albers, Hendricks, Deduno, and possibly a resigned Pelfrey and say "Well, we have a lot of guys already to compete for 5 spots" and only look for Harden-type gambles. Read that scenario again...it just feels Twins-ish.

 

I will share your optimism this offseason (quite foolishly, so the pragmatist in me says), but our options in-house aren't pretty and it's unlikely we will look to upgrade more than one spot. So even with an unlikely upgrade of significant value - it still "ain't likable" to go back to the original post.

[Kwak]

Last year (and perhaps before then) Ryan said "...he wants lots of arms."--options. I have to believe that he still has that opinion and will act to do so for 2014. The statement by Pohlad about free-agent pitching is not so clear--especially when that is exactly what was done last year--sign free agent pitchers! Some perceive that means a top 50 guy, some maybe top 100 pitcher, and then it could be just like last year!

 

The names provided as a discussion point are mostly correct I believe, but I do expect Albers to make the rotation provided he doesn't fall apart. But I actually think there will be a FA pitcher signed. I think the Twins would very much like to sign Johan, even with a gentleman's agreement that he would be traded in July. Players do tend to "come home" for a stop. But, if not Johan, somebody.

[nicksaviking]

I would agree the assessment of the options for the opening day rotation that are currently on the roster was pretty accurate.

 

However, to then take the position that the rotation will not be further improved is indeed the most cynical position one can take. It could also be correct (though I highly doubt it).

 

I am indeed an optimist but I really honestly believe Ryan will do something to improve the state of the rotation going into next year. Mostly because it won't be that hard to do so. As you said, whatever he does do won't significantly improve the rotation on its own, it will also require significant internal improvement or emergence from guys currently in the organization to make said significant improvement.

 

I will share your optimism that the Twins will sign a higher quality pitcher this offseason, but that hope is irrational and bound to cause frustration. My hope is unfounded, so I am curious why you think it is highly unlikely that Ryan doesn't sign a quality pitcher? He has no track record of doing so. What makes you think the cynical view is so unlikely when this team was in the same postion the last two years and the cynical view turned out to be accurate?

[John Bonnes]

Well, I don't think this is outlandish or cynical. I'm not even sure that I necessarily disagree with it. I do feel like Diamond and Worley are better than we've seen.

 

I haven't broke down the list, but I would like to see the Twins go after one top of the rotation arm. That would provide a solid base and let the rest sort out who should be the middle of the rotation arms, but leave room for May or Meyer too.

 

But I got to say - I think the chances of that happening are slim. There certainly is no precedent for that kind of move.

[Rosterman]

If Johan can actually pitch, even partially, why not. Let's bring back Silva, too.

 

Seriously, maybe the Twins will finally land Bruce Chen.

 

I see them comfortable with Worley, Albers, Hendriks, Deduno, Gibson, Correia. Maybe a lowend free agent. Maybe a couple more PJ Waletrs types.

 

There is all that hope in the funnel: Darnell Logan, Logan Darnell, Wimmers, Meyer, May and that 18-year-old. Wait, he might make it in 2015 with Berrios.

 

Don't see the Twins doing any big bucks spending next season. Don't see it at all.

 

Yes, Santana would be nice. Even if he is disabled list fodder. Just one more game, please!

[JB_Iowa]

People post like there is something wrong with being a cynic.

 

Over the last 3 years, the cynics have been right a lot more than the non-cynics.

 

I hope that changes ..... but I'm not holding my breath.

 

I do expect Ryan to sign some jetsam and flotsam that may add some depth and provide some options when the inevitable happens -- someone gets injured; someone simply doesn't perform, etc.

 

I don't expect him to rely totally on what's in the system. I also don't expect him to spend a lot of bucks the possibilities.

[drjim]

I will share your optimism that the Twins will sign a higher quality pitcher this offseason, but that hope is irrational and bound to cause frustration. My hope is unfounded, so I am curious why you think it is highly unlikely that Ryan doesn't sign a quality pitcher? He has no track record of doing so. What makes you think the cynical view is so unlikely when this team was in the same postion the last two years and the cynical view turned out to be accurate?

 

The cynical view may very well turn out to be correct.

 

I don't think so for the following reasons:

1. While it is true that Ryan has no track record, there really are only two seasons of a record to draw upon (I consider pre-Target Field to be relatively meaningless in drawing conclusions), and I think a reasonable argument can be made that either offseason wasn't the right time to make such a signing. 2011 because 4 rotation spots were locked in and 2012 because of the many reasons that have been debated to death. Terry Ryan has guaranteed almost $50 million in free agent contracts to players from outside the organization in the past two offseasons, so it's not like he doesn't spend.

 

2. The supply of free agent pitchers this offseason is more advantageous than last season. It doesn't have any pitcher as good as Greinke or Sanchez, but there is some depth in the next tier (where the Twins should be shopping).

 

3. The statements by both Terry Ryan and Jim Pohlad have hinted at more action. I also sense they will feel much more pressure this offseason to make a significant move than they have the previous two years. The doubletalk will not be nearly as effective and Pohlad will start to be hit in the pocketbook a lot harder if nothing is done.

 

I also want to be clear on "quality pitcher". By that I'm thinking someone like Hughes or Vargas (or others of their ilk). Not an ace by any means but a step up from what has been signed the past two seasons.

 

I think they sign one "quality pitcher" and also at least one other guy one a one year flier type contract (or someone in the Pelfrey mold). It is also possible they do a trade instead of a signing, but those are harder to predict for obvious reasons.

[Thrylos]

1. Deduno

2. Albers

3. Gibson

4. Corriea

5. Flotsam from AAA

 

Makes you want to go right out and renew those season tickets......(I actually think it could be a .500 rotation if they catch a break or two). What do you think?

 

I think that if this is the rotation to start 2014, Ryan should be fired on the spot.

[drjim]

People post like there is something wrong with being a cynic.

 

Over the last 3 years, the cynics have been right a lot more than the non-cynics.

 

I hope that changes ..... but I'm not holding my breath.

 

I do expect Ryan to sign some jetsam and flotsam that may add some depth and provide some options when the inevitable happens -- someone gets injured; someone simply doesn't perform, etc.

 

I don't expect him to rely totally on what's in the system. I also don't expect him to spend a lot of bucks the possibilities.

 

I don't want to speak for anyone else - but I don't think anyone said there is anything wrong with being a cynic.

[drjim]

I think that if this is the rotation to start 2014, Ryan should be fired on the spot.

 

I would agree.

[drjim]

Well, I don't think this is outlandish or cynical. I'm not even sure that I necessarily disagree with it. I do feel like Diamond and Worley are better than we've seen.

 

I haven't broke down the list, but I would like to see the Twins go after one top of the rotation arm. That would provide a solid base and let the rest sort out who should be the middle of the rotation arms, but leave room for May or Meyer too.

 

But I got to say - I think the chances of that happening are slim. There certainly is no precedent for that kind of move.

 

There are no top of the rotation arms in free agency. There are several mid-rotation arms.

 

Potential Free Agents for 2014 | Cot's Baseball Contracts

[TheLeviathan]

The statements by both Terry Ryan and Jim Pohlad have hinted at more action. I also sense they will feel much more pressure this offseason to make a significant move than they have the previous two years. The doubletalk will not be nearly as effective and Pohlad will start to be hit in the pocketbook a lot harder if nothing is done.

 

We obviously disagree in general and that's fine - but I don't think this is true at all. This same doubletalk has been around in various forms for about two decades, it's effectiveness with savvy fans has long been spent. The Twins are banking on the all-star game and all the season ticket tie-ins to keep their pocketbooks fat for at least another year.

 

People may eventually start sending a message via their own pocketbooks soon....but I can't imagine that will spur this team to act. If anything, I imagine the windows will be shuttered even tighter. It's one of my greatest fears about the team long-term, if we don't start winning (and spending more to do it) soon - we may see revenues start to shrink and then our expanded payroll flexibility may start to shrink quickly at the worst possible time.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't want to speak for anyone else - but I don't think anyone said there is anything wrong with being a cynic.

 

You and at least one other poster have implied it heavily.

[clutterheart]

No. Please no.

 

That would be a crime and a signal to a player like Mauer that they are not committed to winning.

 

This town seems to really want to support the Twins. I read today that the FO is expecting huge attendance for the next Albers start. This should convince the FO that a FA investment in pitching will bring a return.

 

Now they just need to convince Ryan to hold his nose and actually pay market price. (if we can beleive the reports that its Ryan, not the Pohlads who refuses to spend)

[LaBombo]

Oh boy, more painting the worse case scenario as the likely outcome!

The "worst case scenario" has been the most accurate predictive model for the Twins for going on three seasons now.

 

It's not surprising that people are angry. What's surprising is who they're angry at, and who they're not.

[drjim]

You and at least one other poster have implied it heavily.

 

I would like to see a quote that implies that, even slightly. I'm cynical about several things, just not the Twins.

 

My only point on this would be for people to own their cynicism and not be so sensitive/offended when they get called out on it.

[howieramone1406390264]

There are 15-20 aces in all of baseball. So a max of what, 60 top of the rotation arms? When you read about draft picks, prospects etc., it sounds like they grow on trees. Hence back of the rotation starters are considered to be what the cat dragged in. It's very complicated and usually takes some luck to build a solid rotation.

[TheLeviathan]

I would like to see a quote that implies that, even slightly. I'm cynical about several things, just not the Twins.

 

I don't blame anyone, like the OP, who don't like an inaccurate label being put on their position that (whether you intend it or not) belittles the accuracy of their position.

 

Most everyone but you and one other person don't see this as cynical, just realistic. As for the quote - you used the same term and "agreed" with another poster aggressively pushing it as a negative. Perhaps you should read the quotes you "agreed" with and then consider who exactly needs to own up to their position.

[LaBombo]

There are no top of the rotation arms in free agency. There are several mid-rotation arms.

 

Potential Free Agents for 2014 | Cot's Baseball Contracts

 

Yeah, it's not like there's a Tim Lincecum or Josh Johnson in that FA crop.

 

And if there were, they would never come here unless the Twins severely overpay them.

 

And even if they did, it wouldn't help build a contender, because that only happens through the draft and through trades for prospects.

 

And Kevin Correia and Edwin Jackson are essentially the same caliber of pitchers.

 

We've got it already.