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Posted
1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Except he’s a C- level player. They paid for C- production and he gave them what they paid for.

The pay range was slightly above warm body for payrange. The production was league average, but by available free agents he was much better dollar to production 

Posted
4 hours ago, mike8791 said:

Can't quarrel with grades too much, but from this list a few things stand out:

1. Keaschall looks like a leadoff hitter for years to come if they can find a suitable position.  Just can't see him as a corner OF with his lack of power.

2.  Bell's 96 ribbies is hard to overlook.  Too many people dismiss him prematurely.  Is there a better DH internally or FA who is as reasonably priced?

3.  You have highlighted the 2 major positions that must be addressed - 1B & C.   This is where Pohlad has to spend money in FA to bolster a lineup sadly lacking #3/4 hitters.

 

Keaschall's wRC+ for the 2nd half was 163.  The lack of power is not a problem.  LF is the best place to hide his defensive deficiency unless they can convert him to a 1B.  I wonder if working on 1B is in the off-season plan.  That flexibility would be a big plus.

Posted
2 hours ago, Twins GFP said:

I imagine this comment will not go over well with some individuals...

I think Keaschall's grade might be too high. You give Larnach a B-, but Keaschall gets a B+ for relative similar production over the course of the year. Everyone rails on Larnach for his defensive liabilities, but Keaschall gets a pass? The comparison isn't perfect, but it is closer than most people will admit (especially those who hate Larnach out of principle).

Keaschall going forward will be an interesting watch. He had a strong 2/3 of the year offensively, but IMO his bat is still not enough to be a full-time DH. His defensive liabilities are compounded by the OF prospects pushing for those spots. Unless he can take over 1B, I am not sure where they will hide him.  If he pulls a Lewis and has a poor start to the 2027, his opportunities may evaporate quickly.

If you wish to ignore progression and regression through the season they are the same. 

Old-Timey Member
Posted

Jeffers is a C- at best; run-at-will 10.6 caught stealing rate is even worse than his rookie year.

Bell and Lewis at First base neither was truly bad with the glove especially compared to Keaschall.

Bell image.png.ebdc88d2ab3f5ecfe7e9a3f007c9c5d0.png

Lewis image.png.36ead13297a5088f1b3c92067a788f94.png

image.png

Old-Timey Member
Posted
41 minutes ago, rv78 said:

If 96 RBI's is C- production, your bar is very high. 5th most in the AL. Team High. 2nd best of his career. All for $7M. I was not thrilled with his signing but without his bat in the lineup this team wouldn't have won 60 games.

The 96 RBI are mostly due to batting 4th every day. He stayed healthy and had a lot of players on base ahead of him (which is where the credit should go). Keaschall and Buxton drove the offense, not Bell.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
43 minutes ago, old nurse said:

The pay range was slightly above warm body for payrange. The production was league average, but by available free agents he was much better dollar to production 

The production was below league average, -1.4 WAA according to baseball reference.

Posted

Twins FO/Jeremy Zoll - D+

Cycled through an endless amount of bullpen arms, many of which were not MLB caliber, in the first half of the season before settling on trades that netted competent, not great, arms.

Wasted a valuable roster spot with a backup catcher that the manager found no reason to play for almost half a season.  A roster spot that could have been given earlier to more deserving prospects with a future for the club.  

Appeared before the media as the head of an organization about as well and as often as J. Pohlad.  

Posted
2 minutes ago, Czelgert said:

Twins FO/Jeremy Zoll - D+

Cycled through an endless amount of bullpen arms, many of which were not MLB caliber, in the first half of the season before settling on trades that netted competent, not great, arms.

Wasted a valuable roster spot with a backup catcher that the manager found no reason to play for almost half a season.  A roster spot that could have been given earlier to more deserving prospects with a future for the club.  

Appeared before the media as the head of an organization about as well and as often as J. Pohlad.  

He was doing what Tommy boy wanted. 

Posted
51 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

m a big believer that players should be judged on performance, not on ratings hype or perceived ceiling. If we look at performance, Roden clearly has outperformed both Jenkins and Rodriguez and he did so while getting inconsistent ABs,

How can this be true? What Jenkins was able to do in 93 plate appearances at age 21 (.293/.393/.686), compared to what Roden did in his first 153 plate appearances at age 25 (.261/.294/.556)?

I am not saying Roden doesn't have a chance for a good career, but nobody compares these two players and says Roden is going to be the better player.

Posted
28 minutes ago, old nurse said:

If you wish to ignore progression and regression through the season they are the same. 

Progression and regression could also be stated as early slump or late slump. The terminology probably depends on your feelings towards said players.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
12 minutes ago, MapleGroveTwinsFan said:

How can this be true? What Jenkins was able to do in 93 plate appearances at age 21 (.293/.393/.686), compared to what Roden did in his first 153 plate appearances at age 25 (.261/.294/.556)?

I am not saying Roden doesn't have a chance for a good career, but nobody compares these two players and says Roden is going to be the better player.

I would say Roden is better than Jenkins right now, but I also think he won’t be able to say that by May of next season.

I am less optimistic about Emmanuel Rodriguez. It will be hard for him to adjust his batting approach. I don’t think he is ready for a full time role in the lineup but his glove should get him playing time in late innings.

Posted

Ah man...I gotta do this, fully expecting plenty of 'down' votes. Bring it on!

Giving Tristan Gray an F was cold, Nick ☠️ Look, I agree he was on the roster for too long. But he gets a D in my book for being fairly solid (and RISP clutch) the first two months of the season. Lost his mojo once he returned from paternity leave after the series in Boston. 

 

Posted

Re: RBI totals vs opportunities and the inherent knack for driving runners in, I found a fun little site that calculates the percentage of runners driven in (just the runners on base - no credit for driving in yourself with a home run) for any player going back to the 70s.  It's not perfect - a runner on first isn't the same opportunity as a runner on third, and not all runners are created equally (read: who's more often on base when you get up - the speedy lead-off hitter or the backup catcher?), but it's a pretty good approximation of how well players turn their RBI opportunities into runs.  For reference, average is roughly 15%

For this season, Bell drove in 18.47% of his baserunners.  This was good for 21st in the league among players with at least 100 runners on base.  He ranked 13th in raw RBI totals and roughly 34th in number of baserunners.  For comparison, Buxton was at 8.94%.  So this year, Bell certainly made more out of his opportunities on top of having more opportunities 

Now, is this a repeatable, predictable skill, or is it driven by random noise?  Going back the last five years, Bell was never that high (14.65 was next best), while Buxton was never that low (10.48 was next worst).  Last year, Buxton outpaced Bell 17.14 to 13.09.  For their careers, they're pretty close - Bell is 14.82, Buxton is 13.09.

So did Buxton forget how to hit with runners on base this year? Did Bell uncover the secret to hitting with runners on at age 34? Or is this a phenomenon similar to BABIP where extreme outliers should be expected to normalize over time?   You be the judge

A few miscellaneous notes: Brooks Lee found his way into the top 5 in 2024 while having a career rate that's roughly average.  This year's top 5 are Tyrone Taylor, Owen Cassie, Graham Pauley, Nick Kurtz, and Jake McCarthy (not exactly a replica of anyone's MVP ballot)

Also, Kirby Puckett was apparently really good at this (18.30 for his career!  Good for 4th since 1974 among those with at least 1000 runners) and Mauer was better than a lot of people probably think (16.47, good for 44th during his career, better than guys like Gary Sheffield, Jason Giambi, and Edgar Martinez, and literally right next to Torii Hunter in the ranking.  And he was over 17.5 through 2010 before the injuries started getting to him)

And among players in the top 20 in the data set in terms of runners on, Derek Jeter is the only one with a below-average RBI percentage (14.77)

Old-Timey Member
Posted
18 minutes ago, Saxophone Joe said:

Ah man...I gotta do this, fully expecting plenty of 'down' votes. Bring it on!

Giving Tristan Gray an F was cold, Nick ☠️ Look, I agree he was on the roster for too long. But he gets a D in my book for being fairly solid (and RISP clutch) the first two months of the season. Lost his mojo once he returned from paternity leave after the series in Boston. 

 

Two Grand Slams kept him playing but his glove was at Keaschall level.

Posted
21 minutes ago, Saxophone Joe said:

Ah man...I gotta do this, fully expecting plenty of 'down' votes. Bring it on!

If I'm ever down and out in this world, I want Sax Joe in my corner.

Whatever you're drinking, pretend this round is on me. I think you're way too optimistic on pretty much everything Twins, but I like your comment board style.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
4 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

Re: RBI totals vs opportunities and the inherent knack for driving runners in, I found a fun little site that calculates the percentage of runners driven in (just the runners on base - no credit for driving in yourself with a home run) for any player going back to the 70s.  It's not perfect - a runner on first isn't the same opportunity as a runner on third, and not all runners are created equally (read: who's more often on base when you get up - the speedy lead-off hitter or the backup catcher?), but it's a pretty good approximation of how well players turn their RBI opportunities into runs.  For reference, average is roughly 15%

For this season, Bell drove in 18.47% of his baserunners.  This was good for 21st in the league among players with at least 100 runners on base.  He ranked 13th in raw RBI totals and roughly 34th in number of baserunners.  For comparison, Buxton was at 8.94%.  So this year, Bell certainly made more out of his opportunities on top of having more opportunities 

Now, is this a repeatable, predictable skill, or is it driven by random noise?  Going back the last five years, Bell was never that high (14.65 was next best), while Buxton was never that low (10.48 was next worst).  Last year, Buxton outpaced Bell 17.14 to 13.09.  For their careers, they're pretty close - Bell is 14.82, Buxton is 13.09.

So did Buxton forget how to hit with runners on base this year? Did Bell uncover the secret to hitting with runners on at age 34? Or is this a phenomenon similar to BABIP where extreme outliers should be expected to normalize over time?   You be the judge

A few miscellaneous notes: Brooks Lee found his way into the top 5 in 2024 while having a career rate that's roughly average.  This year's top 5 are Tyrone Taylor, Owen Cassie, Graham Pauley, Nick Kurtz, and Jake McCarthy (not exactly a replica of anyone's MVP ballot)

Also, Kirby Puckett was apparently really good at this (18.30 for his career!  Good for 4th since 1974 among those with at least 1000 runners) and Mauer was better than a lot of people probably think (16.47, good for 44th during his career, better than guys like Gary Sheffield, Jason Giambi, and Edgar Martinez, and literally right next to Torii Hunter in the ranking.  And he was over 17.5 through 2010 before the injuries started getting to him)

And among players in the top 20 in the data set in terms of runners on, Derek Jeter is the only one with a below-average RBI percentage (14.77)

I wonder if pitchers adjust their style when there are runners on base and Buxton did not adjust to that as much as Bell did.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
24 minutes ago, Saxophone Joe said:

Ah man...I gotta do this, fully expecting plenty of 'down' votes. Bring it on!

Giving Tristan Gray an F was cold, Nick ☠️ Look, I agree he was on the roster for too long. But he gets a D in my book for being fairly solid (and RISP clutch) the first two months of the season. Lost his mojo once he returned from paternity leave after the series in Boston. 

 

LOL, you got thumbs down from the expected seats in the gallery.🤣

At that , thumbs down simply means disagree.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
2 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

Re: RBI totals vs opportunities and the inherent knack for driving runners in, I found a fun little site that calculates the percentage of runners driven in (just the runners on base - no credit for driving in yourself with a home run) for any player going back to the 70s.  It's not perfect - a runner on first isn't the same opportunity as a runner on third, and not all runners are created equally (read: who's more often on base when you get up - the speedy lead-off hitter or the backup catcher?), but it's a pretty good approximation of how well players turn their RBI opportunities into runs.  For reference, average is roughly 15%

For this season, Bell drove in 18.47% of his baserunners.  This was good for 21st in the league among players with at least 100 runners on base.  He ranked 13th in raw RBI totals and roughly 34th in number of baserunners.  For comparison, Buxton was at 8.94%.  So this year, Bell certainly made more out of his opportunities on top of having more opportunities.

Assuming an average hitter in place of Bell gives us 78 RBI instead. That means Bell produced an extra 18 RBI compared to an average batter. Of course, if Bell doesn’t drive in those runners and doesn’t make the 3rd out, the next batter would have had a chance for the RBI, and we can assume they drive in 15%, which negates roughly 3 of those extra RBI. That means Bell drove in 15 more runs than an average batter in his situation.

He is also really slow, so he is scoring runs at a less than average clip. He scores a -3 Rbaser, Subtract those from the total. 

That means his -1.4 WAA is pessimistic when you consider the actual luck he had driving in runners. Add back those extra 12 runs and he’s a -0.2 WAA player. A C- might be a little harsh. I’m willing to give him a solid C. The Twins probably finish 75-87 without him.

Posted
2 hours ago, MapleGroveTwinsFan said:

How can this be true? What Jenkins was able to do in 93 plate appearances at age 21 (.293/.393/.686), compared to what Roden did in his first 153 plate appearances at age 25 (.261/.294/.556)?

I am not saying Roden doesn't have a chance for a good career, but nobody compares these two players and says Roden is going to be the better player.

You misread my post, I must not have been clear. My point is that Roden had the best 2026 of the 3 OF contenders, 4 if you count Martin, so I don't understand why people here automatically assume he is being passed by younger and allegedly "better" players. You are misreading the data on Jenkins by a lot. It would be great if he had a .293 batting average, but he actually hit .226. Going into 2027, I think you have to look at Roden and Jenkins as fighting for that 3rd/4th OF spot with EmRod and Martin going in pretty far behind and GG and Mendez not even in the conversation.  Long term, who knows who is going to be the better player. Hopefully they will all be solid or better MLB players with at least 1 star. Jenkins is the most likely star but Roden looks like he has a ceiling of at least a solid player with a chance to be a star, EmRod is a complete crapshoot with a ceiling anywhere between star and washout, and Martin is 4th OF at best.  

Let's at least agree on the basic facts even if we disagree on conclusions. Jenkins line this year and so far in his career is 93 PAs, 84 ABs, 19 hits, 4 HRs, 10 RBIs, ,226/.293/.393 (.686) with 7 BBS, 19 SO, for a 7.5% BB rate and a 20.4% SO rate . Roden's line in 2026 was 94 PAs, 79 ABs, 1 HR, 14 RBIs, .291/.376/.392 (.768) with 12 BBs and 12 SOs, with an identical 12.75% walk and strikeout rate. EmRod only had 48 PAs, so a smaller sample size, 45 ABs, 8 hits, 2 HRs, 5 RBIs, with 16 SOs and 3 BBS for a 6.25% BB rate and 33.3% SO rate. The strikeout rate is in line with his 26.5% SO rate at AAA - most players' SO rate goes up 3-5% moving up to MLB from AAA. His approach may give him the high SO rate at the Majors without the walk he got in AAA but it's very early. 

I think looking at 2026 you have to say that Roden looks the farthest along at the plate, Jenkins looks like he belongs but still needs experience, and EmRod is still an unknown. I was reacting to the idea that Jenkins and EmRod have somehow "passed" Roden. They haven't. They are still behind him. Let's not anoint guys until they produce. Plus, Roden can hit LH pitching both at AA and MLB, Jenkins has not hit LH pitching yet at either level. That all may change in 2027 but I would give Roden a close to everyday shot in 2027 and see if he can be an above average OF. I would basically play Keaschall, R Buxton, Roden and Jenkins every day at the 3 OF spots and DH for at least a couple of months and see if it works. EmRod can work in 2-3 days a week and Martin whenever there is a LH starter.         

Posted
26 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Let's at least agree on the basic facts even if we disagree on conclusions. Jenkins line this year and so far in his career is 93 PAs, 84 ABs, 19 hits, 4 HRs, 10 RBIs, ,226/.293/.393 (.686) with 7 BBS, 19 SO, for a 7.5% BB rate and a 20.4% SO rate . Roden's line in 2026 was 94 PAs, 79 ABs, 1 HR, 14 RBIs, .291/.376/.392 (.768) with 12 BBs and 12 SOs, with an identical 12.75% walk and strikeout rate. EmRod only had 48 PAs, so a smaller sample size, 45 ABs, 8 hits, 2 HRs, 5 RBIs, with 16 SOs and 3 BBS for a 6.25% BB rate and 33.3% SO rate. The strikeout rate is in line with his 26.5% SO rate at AAA - most players' SO rate goes up 3-5% moving up to MLB from AAA. His approach may give him the high SO rate at the Majors without the walk he got in AAA but it's very early. 

Oh, I can agree that 26 year old Roden put up better numbers than 21 year old Jenkins and 23 year old Erod. Roden and Erod should have been given more of a chance this year, but the Twins thought running 27 year old Martin, and 28 and 29 year old Wallner and Larnach who can't hit lefties were a better idea. 

The Twins screwed up not seeing what the had with Erod at the beginning of the year and now he is out of options and must be on the roster, traded or let go. 

Roden has 2 options left, so pretty much he is going to take a back seat to Jenkins and Roden, unless of course he becomes a first basemen, which in that case he is still likely to go back to the minors. 

I think the Twins have proven playing older players at the expense of young guys getting experience is the quick way to spend multiple years struggling to play even .500 baseball. 

Jenkins has a career OPS of .895 in the minors (between the age of 18 and 21), Roden has an OPS of .870 in the minors (between the age of 22 and 26), no team in the majors would have Roden be anything more than a depth for Jenkins. 

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