Bailey Ober is One of Twins’ Most Valuable Starters of Target Field Era

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Bailey Ober's 2026 season hasn't gone to plan. The right-hander has battled through a noticeable decline in velocity, and the results have been middling. There have been stretches where Ober hasn't looked like the pitcher Twins fans became accustomed to seeing over the previous several seasons. That doesn't mean his entire body of work should be forgotten, though—particularly if this weekend is the last time he dons the home uniform at Target Field. Ober has quietly become one of the better starting pitchers the Twins have developed over the last two decades.

His career hasn't followed the traditional path of a highly-touted prospect becoming a frontline starter. Instead, he went from a 12th-round pick with limited expectations to a reliable big-league starter who ranks near the top of the organization's pitching leaderboard. His 2026 season deserves criticism. His career deserves appreciation.

Ober's Velocity Problem Has Made 2026 a Challenge

The biggest issue for Ober this season has been his diminished velocity. Ober has never been a pitcher who overpowered hitters with elite velocity. His success came from a combination of command, deception, pitch shape, extension and the ability to keep hitters from getting comfortable. When the velocity drops, however, there is less margin for error. Hitters can sit on pitches longer. Mistakes become easier to punish. The difference between a well-executed pitch and one left over the middle becomes even more important. That has been part of the story in 2026. 

Ober has still shown flashes of the pitcher he can be, but there haven't been enough of those stretches to make this season feel like a major step forward. It's fair to wonder what the diminished velocity means for his future, especially when the Twins are evaluating a rotation that could look considerably different next season. Still, one difficult season shouldn't erase everything that came before it.

From 12th-Round Pick to Big-League Starter

Ober's development might be one of the more impressive pitching stories of the current Twins era. Minnesota selected him in the 12th round of the 2017 MLB Draft out of the College of Charleston. There wasn't much expectation that he would eventually become a major-league starting pitcher.

Ober had to create that opportunity for himself. The COVID-19 shutdown gave him an unusual opportunity to work on his delivery and make changes that might not have been possible during a normal season. He used that time to hone his mechanics and, importantly, increase his velocity. That work helped transform him.

Instead of remaining a tall right-hander with interesting raw traits who might eventually reach the upper levels of the minors, Ober developed into a legitimate pitching prospect. The Twins eventually called him to the majors, and he established himself as more than just a temporary rotation option.

Ober's Place in the Target Field Era

When looking at the Twins' starting pitchers since Target Field opened in 2010, Ober's career stands out even more. Only Joe Ryan, José Berríos and Kyle Gibson have accumulated more fWAR among Twins starting pitchers during the Target Field era. That's impressive company for a pitcher who never fully felt like he was in the team’s long-term plans.

Ober's best stretch came from 2022 through 2024. During those three seasons, he posted a 115 ERA+, a 3.74 FIP and a 1.03 WHIP while averaging 126 innings per season. Those aren't the numbers of a dominant ace. Ober was never consistently dominant. He didn't routinely overpower lineups or spend entire seasons looking like a Cy Young candidate. But he was good, and he had stretches when he looked extremely good.

There were games when everything clicked and Ober looked nearly impossible to square up. Over a full season, consistency mattered more than those dominant moments. That's why his overall value has been so important to the Twins. He provided volume and stability at some vital periods in the team's last half-decade.

What Happens Next?

Ober is likely to receive one more opportunity to take the mound before the 2026 season ends, with a potential weekend start at Target Field against Texas. It could be another chapter in a Twins career that still has plenty left to write. But it could be his final start wearing a Minnesota uniform. Next season will be his final year before free agency, and his salary is likely to increase through arbitration after making $5.2 million in 2026. The Twins could have a crowded group competing for rotation spots next season. That combination creates an interesting offseason decision. Ober has value because of what he has already proved, but the Twins have to determine how much they believe in his ability to regain some of the velocity that helped make him successful. 

Only Ryan, Berríos and Gibson have accumulated more fWAR as Twins starters since 2010. That's not a bad legacy for a pitcher who entered professional baseball with very few expectations.

Whatever happens this offseason, Ober has already earned his place among the organization's better starting pitchers of the last 15-plus years. His 2025 and 2026 seasons may have complicated his future, but they shouldn't diminish what he accomplished to get here.

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What stands out about Ober's time in Minnesota? Where does he rank among starting pitchers in the Target Field era? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[LastOnePicked]

Another one of my favorite Twins. If this is it, I can only tip my cap to him. I remember watching him pitch 7-8 dominant innings in a 1-0 game back in 2022 and I thought, if this is the pitching pipeline, the Twins might be okay.

It wasn't, and the Twins weren't. But Ober was a bright spot. If he wants to be here and if they bring him back, I won't complain.

[PDX Twin]

I agree! It's great to see different pitching styles be effective. We don't need everyone to throw 110 mph. It reminds me of Wilbur Wood, Hoyt Wilhelm, and Eddie Fisher---slow-throwing knuckleballers who drove hitters crazy, especially out of the bullpen.

[rv78]

Target Field opened in 2010. Only 3 pitchers have been better than Bailey Ober. That pretty much sums up the state of this organization for the last 16 years. Pathetic.

[MeleMouth]

Good article and we should always respect a 12th round pick who becomes a multi-year mainstay. However, to elaborate on what was said by rv98, if Joe Ryan and his 13.5 fWAR are the most accumulated by a Twins pitcher since 2010, that's as much an indictment of the organization as the fact that Ober is fourth is a credit to him.

Edit: in that time, only the Athletics, Orioles, and Padres have as their pitcher with the most fWAR someone with less than 13.5.

[PuckettPond]

If Ober is in the starting rotation then the Twins will have a failed season because of injuries or FO sitting on their hands this winter. We can & must do better.

[old nurse]

 

[RaoulDuke]

Bailey Ober is an awesome success story, a very unconventional prospect that ended up having a couple really good MLB seasons.  He has still been a very interesting watch as a back of the rotation guy making it on 87 and off speed stuff but his time with the Twins is probably over at this point with the arbitration wage putting him in the 7-8 million range next year.

The fact that he is in the top 5 of a now 16 year old time frame is pretty damning for the organization.  They don't sign top of the line free agent talent, they don't trade for established top of the rotation talent, they don't trade for major pitching prospects, and they don't draft pitchers high in the first round. 

All those things are risky for sure, pitching is the riskiest thing but also carries the most value when the risk pays off.  Chase Petty was maybe the biggest draft risk they have taken recently (he hasn't been good) and they turned him into Sonny Gray pretty quick, Gray has been probably the best pitcher through here in the Target Field era.

 

[Rosterman]

When he is good he is very different than the norm. WHen he is bad, scouting must see something and he needs to adjust.

[TopGunn#22]

PDX, if Ober could throw a knuckleball it would probably be a different story altogether.  Can you imagine how successful a knuckleball pitcher would be in this day and age with hitters being so focused on effectively hitting high velocity pitches?  It makes me wonder why teams haven't pursued this path for some velocity challenged pitchers in their organizations.  

Cody has made a great case for why Ober needs to be traded to a team desperate to find a "semi-dependable" back-end #5 SP.  There is indeed value in that, it's just that the Twins should be focused on getting innings for young pitchers like Zebby, Prielipp, Abel and Rojas, NOT someone like Ober.  

[Whitey333]

One thing fun about Ober is since his velocity is down so much he must use craftiness to pitch.  His control must be fine point.  If its not he gets banged around.  But when he is on it is fun watching the opposing batters flail away .   Its fun to see someone that can actually pitch instead of throwers of 100 mph fastball that just fling it up there and see what happens.  Just would be run to see him be better more than not.  I say keep him.

[offensive_loons_fan]

I'm sure people are out there doing this, but I would love to see a more comprehensive retroactive review of previous top prospects and how they have actually performed in the big leagues, and of lower-rated prospects and how they have panned out.

It's definitely some cynicism and selective memory on my part, but it feels like 85% of "next big thing" guys fizzle out. Then there are a disproportionate rate of guys who were low rated and ended up becoming at least viable. This isn't just baseball but seems to be true across a lot of sports to varying degrees.

What is going on there? What is so fundamentally flawed in prospecting that it seems like everyone is just guessing?

[Hunter4848]

Much more of indictment of how bad the Twins are than an endorsement of Ober...

[DannySD]

Ober is 55th in WAR among MLB pitchers over the last 5 years. A lot of complaining for a guy who's been better than most teams' #3 starter. 

He's not always good, but valuable when he is, he probably deserves another year. 

[jkcarew]

Tip of the cap to Ober, for sure.

Remember when you could read here…almost daily (pun intended)…and as recently as last year…how great the Twins org is at developing pitching?