How Much Would the Twins Have to Spend to Prove They're Serious About 2027?

[Rufus]

It isn't how much money you spend, It's how you spend your money.   Just throwing money at over priced free agents is not the answer.  The Guardians, White Sox, and Rays have a smaller payroll than the Twins ,  The Brewers not much more and they are doing just fine.

[SE23]

4 hours ago, Exiled in Illinois said:

Make a real effort to extend Ryan and Lopez.  Sign a quality starting catcher for 2-3 years, Jeffers would be ok with me.  Let the rookies play awhile next year, if any look like franchise players, extend them.  Then it's sign more pitching.  And then more pitching.  And then more pitching until you get to 170-180 million in payroll.  Do that and you should have a contender for years to come, and we'll have nothing to complain about.  But we'll complain anyway:)

Let Jeffers (and his $17M-$22M annual salary) walk out the door and work on signing Carson Kelly to a 2-year deal for $5M-$7M per year. Lackey can come up in late-2027 and take over as primary catcher in '28.

[rv78]

4 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

This is where a first-rate FO matters, because is Jeffers on a serious path to regression? Seems like the bottom is dropping out quickly, and I question the value of continuously signing aging, unproductive catchers to multi-year deals.

What are you basing his drop off on? 2026 was his 2nd best year offensively in his career. There has been talk of him being one of the best offensive catchers in all of baseball, if not the best. Sure, he's not Joe Mauer but who the H E double LL toothpicks is anymore? He's only 29, in the prime of his career. If the Twins won't pay him I'd be willing to bet a dollar to a donut the Yankees will. The Twins have no one in the organization ready to take his place. 3 years gets them to Tait and or Lackey. Diaw is in AA and could become the backup in 2028. The cupboard is bare unless you want a Caratini/Jackson combo. That's more of the same, settling for less that we have seen, and gets us no where. 

[DocBauer]

With expected "loses" but adding projected arbitration increases and the such, the payroll sits about $100-105M entering the offseason. I believe that includes Lewis as well. 

It's true the team is going to have a large number of inexpensive players, many on the minimum, for next season. That's a positive for the payroll, and the future. But back to the $130-135M level they were at to begin 2025 is the BARE MINIMUM for Pohlad to be taken at all seriously. 

But where SHOULD the target be set? I'm agreeing with @Czelgertthat $150M-ish SHOULD be the minimum target. 

But the LAST THING I want them to do is to spend for the sake of spending and put together a roster that doesn't make sense! 

Personally, I think a quality 1B is #1 on the shopping list. I don't care if he comes via trade or FA. It could be a solid 1B in a trade, or a 3B who would simply be better at 1B, or an OF with 1B experience who moves there permanently. I'm speculating that 1B would cost around $15-18M. No problem, plenty of $ for that. And it also means you don't need to add a BAT ONLY DH who crowds the whole rest of the lineup/roster when you want to run through your primary 4 OF at the spot, and half days off for some of your INF as well.

THEN, position player wise, I want a utility player with a solid bat who can play 1B/2B/3B with a decent glove and decent bat. Just a good, well rounded player who can fill in at all 3 spots. (The ability to play some OF would only be a bonus, not a prerequisite). Think Marwin Gonzalez or a better version of Solano a few years ago. Or a slightly different version of Farmer. And Royce could be PERFECT for that spot at around $5M. And I'm NOT insulting his character in any way, but I just don't believe he would accept that role. I believe he still sees himself as a "starter" but the numbers say NO over the past 3 years. But it would a perfect fit if he were to accept that role until/unless he suddenly raises his game.

I believe Lewis should be moved for his sake, and for the team's sake. A new start for both. But I STILL want a similar player to fill that bench role as a very valuable reserve. And I'm still OK paying $5M for a FA or trade option to fill it. It's actually a very valuable role for season long depth we HAVE HAD, but didn't have in 2026.

NEXT, I'd pursue a resign of Minter. He's not the same pitcher he was when he got his crazy $11M per deal. And he's older now as well. But he also still knows how to pitch, and has done well with the Twins. Personally, I don't have a problem with 3 LH options in the pen. Some teams have a hard time finding one. And arms get injured. THREE solid LHRP is a nice luxury to have. If the market doesn't go crazy, I'd expect him to sign for $5M to $7M TOPS. But it's also been interesting the last few offseasons how many solid, veteran arms have been signed for less than projections.

It's a very positive idea that young arms like Raya, and CJ Culpepper, and a few others will take a step forward next season. Hell, while doubtful, if the pitching depth looks so good, maybe Matthews gets converted despite making some major strides this season. And what IF Festa is ACTUALLY healthy and ready to pitch again? He's probably headed to the pen for the rest of his career.

But LH options on the upper levels are rare other than Prielipp...who's staying in the rotation...and Rojas who the Twins SAY is staying as a SP. That makes resigning Minter all the better. But since we aren't quite sure about Gomez, and Sands is a mystery, why not signing a RHRP with a solid track record? This OP isn't necessarily about WHO, but rather, WHAT for payroll. So I'm going to say the Twins DOUBLE DIP and sign a RHRP of some quality to go along with Minter for $5-7M.

LASTLY, this team has been DESPERATE for a 4th or 5th RH OF of quality that can help the roster, especially against LHP, for some time now. And I don't mean a Martin who can only hit against LHP, generally, with no power. And with no FIXED DH, you not only get to rotate your OF, you get the option of semi platoons with a veteran OF who can not only PH, but can also DH once in a while. But with the top 4 OF already set, and a proposed 1B addition, the 5th OF might be ANYONE worthy of the spot.

NOTE: Someone like Grichek would have been a PERFECT option the last few years. But probably not now. MAYBE there's someone similar out there to sign if the Twins don't want to stay internal? Just speculation. 

UNFORTUNATELY, I don't see a way to improve the catching for 2027 unless we sign a veteran for 1yr at $3-5M to replace Jackson. And I honestly haven't looked lately at the FA options available. But the Twins sure aren't going to trade for a catcher with Lakey in the pipeline. So it's probably good defense and good game calling and poor throwing for 2027. It's even possible Jackson overtakes Caratini as the #1 option. But as a receiver only, Caratini is not a bad backstop.

So let's add up the additions and look to the high $ value.

1B: 18M

Minter: $7M

RHRP: $7M

UTILITY INF: $5M

That's $15-18M-ish for a proposed contract for a 1B addition and resigning Minter and adding another solid RHRP to the staff. You want to just push it to $30M, I'm OK with that.

That pushes a potential $100 payroll, without Lewis, to $142M-ish. That is still a LOW payroll. 

I could live with that for 2027 IF they ACCOMPLISHED that. 

Again, I don't want to spend just for the sake of spending.

At that point they COULD just trade Ryan for whatever prospects they could get. But it's a weird point where you trade a TOP SP for whatever you can get, but then sign another pitcher FA to replace him? That makes little sense to me unless you get another Abel type of prospect back. 

What does that cost? Is it worth it based on the rotation on hand and the prospects who have already shown flashes?  ONLY if some team is GOING FOR IT and doesn't care about losing a quality prospect in their intent.

I just don't see a logical reason to sign any FA SP that doesn't cost $40M vs keeping what we have, maybe making a resign, and also trusting in Bradley and Prielipp, etc.

 

[JCT66]

Instead of throwing out round numbers like 30 million or 60 million and opining as to whether that’s good enough, why don’t you actually do the work of figuring out what holes they need to fill in order to be a good team and then determining how much money they would need to fill those holes?  They have a lot of positions filled with fairly young and inexpensive players so I don’t really think they need to go back to the 2023 payroll to be competitive  

They need a bat first catcher on a one year deal. They need a bat at either 1st base or potentially 2nd base if they want to move Clemens to first, and they need at least two set up quality relievers.  I would suggest dedicating real money at those positions would indicate they are serious about 2027. $15 million each for the two position players and another $12 million for the two relievers would represent a huge free agent investment for the Twins compared to the last few years. Thats $42 million in new money.

I would recommend parting with Ober, Royce and Larnach so that probably saves ~$15 million.  Not sure what adjustments for the remaining arbitration eligible players would total. Perhaps $10 million?  That would put total payroll in the $145 million range.  I think that could put a competitive team on the field in 2027. 
 

[terrydactyls]

Trade Ryan and Lopez and use the money (plus extra) to sign Skubal and Graterol.  Try to resign Jeffers but don't go overboard just to get him.  I could live with a #9 hitting catcher with very good defensive skills.  Any money left over could be used for extensions for young players.  2027 may be a shortened season, so I wouldn't be too worried about innings limits for some of the young guys (or even Graterol if he needs a longer spring training to recover from back surgery).  Once the World Series is complete, qualifying offers either accepted or rejected, and the actual free agent list is complete, then we should look at the Twins bulging wallet and how we can spend it all.

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, DocBauer said:

LASTLY, this team has been DESPERATE for a 4th or 5th RH OF of quality that can help the roster, especially against LHP, for some time now. And I don't mean a Martin who can only hit against LHP, generally, with no power. And with no FIXED DH, you not only get to rotate your OF, you get the option of semi platoons with a veteran OF who can not only PH, but can also DH once in a while. But with the top 4 OF already set, and a proposed 1B addition, the 5th OF might be ANYONE worthy of the spot.

I assume you have Buxton, Keaschall, Jenkins and Erod as the top 4 OF already set. 

Are we are "desperate" for Lane Thomas? How much should we spend for someone who is going to take left on left opportunity from Erod or Jenkins? Play 28% of the time. 

And who will it be... Will it be Erod or Jenkins that is going to be chosen as not able to hit left handed pitching for the rest of his career. 

Take my hand... I'll help you climb out of this Rabbit Hole. 

 

[killercarewoliva]

16 hours ago, NYCTK said:

There's a lot I disagree with here, but I'll focus instead on the inflation since that's an interesting question. Seems based on the other information you  provided that $4.50 would be something like $50 today.

But more importantly, I want to point out that despite everyone loving to complain about rising ticket prices, MLB tickets are one of the entertainment products that have failed to explode in cost. Outpaced inflation, perhaps, but not by massive leaps and bounds.

Helps that the Mets are atrocious, but I think the average ticket price I paid in my trips to the ballpark the last couple season was something like $15-$20. Comparing that to concert tickets or a lot of other entertainment products, a trip to the ballpark is still a remarkably good deal! 

The concessions are another beast. 

Yes, even the New York Yankees have a cheap seat way up in the upper deck. but keep in mind and this was some years ago that it cost $1600 behind the Yankees dugout to watch one regular season game. that's what I was referring to things like that and I think the Minnesota twins back seat behind home plate. I'm not sure. I think it's roughly $300 maybe. so when I look at the fans with the view around the stadium less people sit behind home plate than anywhere else

[Whitey333]

Lots of great comments .  I think one of the Twins biggest problems has not been the total payroll dollars but where they are allocated.  Falvey did a terrible job of managing payroll.  The Twins had the highest and second highest payroll kn the Central for most of falveys tenure.  Throwing money at it doesn't guarantee anything except for multi million dollar debt load.  This team needs new upper management.  Plus they just fired their long timr player director Deron Johnson.  A 32 year employee.  

[DJL44]

17 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Payroll should absolutely be a topic in 2027, but there are different ways of spending payroll than on big ticket FAs.  The Twins need to start acting more like successful middle revenue teams like the Brewers, Rays, Guards, etc and sign their future stars to extensions early.  Sure the FA class may be terrible, but if so it's a great opportunity to sign Jenkins and/or Culpepper, ERod, Priellip, Houston, Lackey to long term deals.  It's going to take some payroll to do that though.  

Keaschall and Bradley should be at the top of the list of extensions. It would be nice to have both of them until they're 30. Jenkins and Culpepper would be next on the list.

[Woof Bronzer]

Lots of folks here seem to think increasing payroll only means signing big dollar FAs.  It doesn't.  The Twins are never going to outbid the Dodgers, Yankees, etc for big dollar FAs, and the reality is, for big dollar FAs you are paying a high premium for past performance, and so a lot of those deals turn out to be terrible value.  But the Dodgers, Yankees can afford a few sunk cost contracts.  The Dodgers are paying Tucker $60m/yr for 4 years and in year 1 he's produced a whopping 1.1 WAR.  That sort of value would essentially wreck the Twins for the length of that contract.  (Don't even start on long term deals for starting pitchers in their 30s - yes the Pohlads are cheap as hell but one thing to give them credit for is just not doing these deals, because they rarely pay off.)

Leaving the big ticket FAs to the top revenue teams actually improves competitive balance.  Take the Mets, they are paying 4 players more than $25m/year - Soto, Bichette, Lindor, Simien, for a total of $164m/yr.  This year they got a grand total of 6.2 WAR from those players.  So the Mets paid about $26m per 1 WAR.  That's crazy expensive! (They also have $63m in dead money).  The Twins, on the other hand, spent $20m on their top 4 position players and got 4.1 WAR, so around $5m/WAR.  Sure, the Mets have a payroll 3x the Twins on paper...but if you factor out the WAR premium and the dead money, that $344m payroll effectively becomes a $150m payroll.  With investment, effective leadership, and a competent FO, the Twins should absolutely be able to compete with that. 

Where the Twins do need to spend money is locking up young talent to team friendly extensions before they hit FA.  There's still the risk that not all of them will pan out, so they really need to improve their drafting and development to get to a point where there's a clear plan in place, the right people to execute it, the commitment to believe in your people and processes and follow it through, and the willingness to play younger, less polished, cheaper/better value players.

[DJL44]

9 hours ago, JCT66 said:

Instead of throwing out round numbers like 30 million or 60 million and opining as to whether that’s good enough, why don’t you actually do the work of figuring out what holes they need to fill in order to be a good team and then determining how much money they would need to fill those holes?  They have a lot of positions filled with fairly young and inexpensive players so I don’t really think they need to go back to the 2023 payroll to be competitive  

They need a bat first catcher on a one year deal. They need a bat at either 1st base or potentially 2nd base if they want to move Clemens to first, and they need at least two set up quality relievers.  I would suggest dedicating real money at those positions would indicate they are serious about 2027. $15 million each for the two position players and another $12 million for the two relievers would represent a huge free agent investment for the Twins compared to the last few years. Thats $42 million in new money.

I would recommend parting with Ober, Royce and Larnach so that probably saves ~$15 million.  Not sure what adjustments for the remaining arbitration eligible players would total. Perhaps $10 million?  That would put total payroll in the $145 million range.  I think that could put a competitive team on the field in 2027. 
 

I think I would actually prefer a skilled defensive catcher. It is a good spot for them to upgrade their overall defense which has been a problem all season. I would add one of the free agent 2B to the roster (Would Jazz get along with Culpepper?). I would add a couple relievers AND move Ober to the bullpen. If Ober wants to add some years to his career, he should learn how to pitch in relief. I would probably try to trade Joe Ryan before he loses all trade value.

OF: Keaschall, Buxton, Jenkins, Roden, Martin, Rodriguez

IF: Caratini, new C, Lee, Culpepper, new 2B, Clemens, Lewis, Kreidler (that's 14 position players but someone will be on the injured list or optioned to start the season)

SP: Lopez, Bradley, Kremer, Abel, Prielipp (Matthews, Rojas)

RP: New RP, New RP, Hoffman, Morris, Banda, Gomez, Ober, Nance (Funderburk, Adams, Acton, Sands, Raya)

That payroll looks to be about $95M before adding the C, 2B and two relievers. If Joe Ryan is still around it's only $110M. That means they can pursue one of the top 3 second basemen (Arraez, Jazz, Lowe). They can afford to bring back Jeffers if they want. They can certainly afford to spend $10-$15M on the bullpen.

[Riverbrian]

I really don't care about the money at this moment. The front office has to make a decision this off-season because a wall is coming.

The choice for them is to attempt to mitigate the upcoming collision with the wall this off-season or run full speed into next off-season. 

The wall is really simple to see. We have 4 starting pitchers next year that will be in their last years of control. Ryan, Lopez, Ober and Kramer. The Twins can either: 

A. Take the starting pitching that they have next year and the depth provided by Bradley, Matthews, Preilipp, Abel. and say... We have the starting pitching to compete in 2027. This isn't unreasonable. 

B. Move some of that starting pitching next season to soften the blow with the ball. This also isn't unreasonable.  

Those 8 pitchers have the potential to comprise a very competitive rotation with the depth necessary to get through 162 games. Yes we will need others to rise up and perform on the mound but every team will need others just to get through a season. 

Joe Ryan's trade value has (I assume) plummeted to the point that the return may not be worth it now. Pablo Lopez probably doesn't have the trade value to be worth it. However... In my opinion both Ryan and Lopez have the potential to be good pitchers for us and if the trade value has been reduced... I'd consider keeping them now. Ober and Kramer have the ability to be at least average and Bradley looks like a potential superstar to me.  I'll also add that I like what I'm seeing out Matthews, Prielipp and Abel having them in St. Paul is a good thing. 

That pitching staff can support a young developing core on the offensive side and the team can still win ball games because I do not believe a young core means bad year. The Washington Nationals have one of the youngest offensive teams in baseball and they are third in runs scored and third in OPS. It's their pitching that really sucks. 

So... if the front office chooses to take that starting pitching and go for it. 

What does the team need? BULLPEN... BULLPEN and infield insurance.  

The outfield is going to be fine even if we have some injuries or failures. Buxton, Keaschall, Jenkins, Erod and Wallner along with Roden is a good group of 6 to work with. Not to mention Gonzalez or Mendez who could find some time in the sun and Clemens is also an option to play some OF. 

Y'all will notice that Wallner is still on my list. I know many will disagree with that but if you leave the DH spot alone and don't get a Bell type replacement. I'm going to point out that Wallner is a 30 home run potential guy who still has 2027, 2028 and 2029 before he is eligible for free agency. He is out of options though so he would have to get that 5th OF spot. I apologize to those who curse his name but I'm not ready to give up on him yet. 

Y'all will notice that Larnach and Martin are not my list.

I'll defend Larnach from all the senseless attacks on him from members of this community and I will keep defending him but you trade him for whatever you can this off-season or simply release him if you don't have a taker. Larnach is on his last year and this makes him the same as any one year rental that we have been surviving for the past decade and I personally don't like. Martin... if he is just a short side platoon robbing Erod or Jenkins or Roden of full development. Trade him or place him in St. Paul until he learns to hit right handed pitching and is allowed to hit right handed pitching when he gets called up. If there is any temptation to platoon Jenkins or Erod... Martin is someone who will provide that temptation. I want him gone to remove any such temptation.   

The infield is still scary. Lee at 3B, Culpepper at SS, Clemens at 2B and Lewis at 1B. We do not have the necessary depth. We hope Lee continues to improve and we hope he never gets hurt. We hope Culpepper is the Culpepper we expect him to be and we hope that he never gets hurt. We hope Clemens continues doing what he has been doing and we hope that he never gets hurt. We hope that Lewis snaps back out of whatever the hell he is in and we hope that he never gets hurt but if anything goes wrong on the infield. We don't have sufficient depth and this must be addressed this off-season regardless if we sell some starting pitching this year or not. I liked what Kriedler did for us this year but we need to aim a little higher. We don't have a proper additional SS and counting on Lewis is just too risky at this point with his protracted below averageness. I'm not throwing Lewis away but I would place him into a 3B, 2B and 1B utility spot. Give him some playing time and make him earn his way to more playing time. The only 1B free agent that interests me is Jake Bauers.

Yandy Diaz also interests me but only if he can actually play 1B. Tampa doesn't allow it and I do not want to sign a DH because we will need the DH spot for our accumulating depth. 

The SS who can also play 2B or 3B. Go young. This is where we try make a trade to bring in someone with years of control. Major league ready prospect is what I'd like to see. 

Who do we trade to get that SS. I don't know. But we should try to get that done. 

Catching... We got Caratini and Jackson and catchers rising from the system. Leave it alone. 

Bullpen... We probably need to be a player here in FA. Get someone with some Gas. Spend money here.  

Whatever the team above costs. That's what we should spend.  

[LastOnePicked]

11 hours ago, rv78 said:

What are you basing his drop off on? 2026 was his 2nd best year offensively in his career. There has been talk of him being one of the best offensive catchers in all of baseball, if not the best. Sure, he's not Joe Mauer but who the H E double LL toothpicks is anymore? He's only 29, in the prime of his career.

I'm basing it off reality, sadly:

He also doesn't seem to be able to throw out base-stealers anymore.

I'm not sure 29 is the prime of a catcher's career. It could be, but that position carries more wear and tear than any on the diamond.

I hope he gets a wonderful payday - he's been a great catcher and one of my favorite Twins. I just don't see the value in keeping a player just because he's a good guy and we like him.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, killercarewoliva said:

Yes, even the New York Yankees have a cheap seat way up in the upper deck. but keep in mind and this was some years ago that it cost $1600 behind the Yankees dugout to watch one regular season game. that's what I was referring to things like that and I think the Minnesota twins back seat behind home plate. I'm not sure. I think it's roughly $300 maybe. so when I look at the fans with the view around the stadium less people sit behind home plate than anywhere else

Oh well.

The only important thing is it's still very affordable to go to a professional baseball game, and blaming the players for a non-existent problem is especially foolish. 

[umterp23]

30 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

I'm basing it off reality, sadly:

He also doesn't seem to be able to throw out base-stealers anymore.

I'm not sure 29 is the prime of a catcher's career. It could be, but that position carries more wear and tear than any on the diamond.

I hope he gets a wonderful payday - he's been a great catcher and one of my favorite Twins. I just don't see the value in keeping a player just because he's a good guy and we like him.

I’m going to give him a pass on the back half of his season for a couple reasons. Probably won’t be popular, but that is fine.

Coming off hamate bone injury isn’t a quick recovery. Look at Ramirez with guardians. He hasn’t been his normal self since he came back and in sept he is hitting below .200 in a pennant chance. Holiday with o’s has been awful If you watch Jeffers he doesn’t celebrate with his left hand at all. Rehab and getting ready post injury he can only do so much to get baseball ready. Off season work starts all over again as a catcher, where you may be doing running and throwing but he isn’t catching or hitting for weeks on end. I like Jeffers a lot, unfortunate he got hurt

Now imagine you are hearing your name for months being traded to Yankees, rays, other playoff contenders and then poof you are not and you are on a rudderless ship to no where. He was energized upon return from injury, deadline was mental toughness and the jolt of I’m still here and let see how this goes chasing playoffs was exciting. It hasn’t worked out. Only one playoff season the whole time he is here, doesn’t bode well for let’s sign long term deal to play for an organization that isn’t serious about contending anytime soon. He will be missed but good for him to earn and make a choice to be competitive the back end of his career