How Much Would the Twins Have to Spend to Prove They're Serious About 2027?

[Rufus]

It isn't how much money you spend, It's how you spend your money.   Just throwing money at over priced free agents is not the answer.  The Guardians, White Sox, and Rays have a smaller payroll than the Twins ,  The Brewers not much more and they are doing just fine.

[SE23]

4 hours ago, Exiled in Illinois said:

Make a real effort to extend Ryan and Lopez.  Sign a quality starting catcher for 2-3 years, Jeffers would be ok with me.  Let the rookies play awhile next year, if any look like franchise players, extend them.  Then it's sign more pitching.  And then more pitching.  And then more pitching until you get to 170-180 million in payroll.  Do that and you should have a contender for years to come, and we'll have nothing to complain about.  But we'll complain anyway:)

Let Jeffers (and his $17M-$22M annual salary) walk out the door and work on signing Carson Kelly to a 2-year deal for $5M-$7M per year. Lackey can come up in late-2027 and take over as primary catcher in '28.

[rv78]

4 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

This is where a first-rate FO matters, because is Jeffers on a serious path to regression? Seems like the bottom is dropping out quickly, and I question the value of continuously signing aging, unproductive catchers to multi-year deals.

What are you basing his drop off on? 2026 was his 2nd best year offensively in his career. There has been talk of him being one of the best offensive catchers in all of baseball, if not the best. Sure, he's not Joe Mauer but who the H E double LL toothpicks is anymore? He's only 29, in the prime of his career. If the Twins won't pay him I'd be willing to bet a dollar to a donut the Yankees will. The Twins have no one in the organization ready to take his place. 3 years gets them to Tait and or Lackey. Diaw is in AA and could become the backup in 2028. The cupboard is bare unless you want a Caratini/Jackson combo. That's more of the same, settling for less that we have seen, and gets us no where. 

[DocBauer]

With expected "loses" but adding projected arbitration increases and the such, the payroll sits about $100-105M entering the offseason. I believe that includes Lewis as well. 

It's true the team is going to have a large number of inexpensive players, many on the minimum, for next season. That's a positive for the payroll, and the future. But back to the $130-135M level they were at to begin 2025 is the BARE MINIMUM for Pohlad to be taken at all seriously. 

But where SHOULD the target be set? I'm agreeing with @Czelgertthat $150M-ish SHOULD be the minimum target. 

But the LAST THING I want them to do is to spend for the sake of spending and put together a roster that doesn't make sense! 

Personally, I think a quality 1B is #1 on the shopping list. I don't care if he comes via trade or FA. It could be a solid 1B in a trade, or a 3B who would simply be better at 1B, or an OF with 1B experience who moves there permanently. I'm speculating that 1B would cost around $15-18M. No problem, plenty of $ for that. And it also means you don't need to add a BAT ONLY DH who crowds the whole rest of the lineup/roster when you want to run through your primary 4 OF at the spot, and half days off for some of your INF as well.

THEN, position player wise, I want a utility player with a solid bat who can play 1B/2B/3B with a decent glove and decent bat. Just a good, well rounded player who can fill in at all 3 spots. (The ability to play some OF would only be a bonus, not a prerequisite). Think Marwin Gonzalez or a better version of Solano a few years ago. Or a slightly different version of Farmer. And Royce could be PERFECT for that spot at around $5M. And I'm NOT insulting his character in any way, but I just don't believe he would accept that role. I believe he still sees himself as a "starter" but the numbers say NO over the past 3 years. But it would a perfect fit if he were to accept that role until/unless he suddenly raises his game.

I believe Lewis should be moved for his sake, and for the team's sake. A new start for both. But I STILL want a similar player to fill that bench role as a very valuable reserve. And I'm still OK paying $5M for a FA or trade option to fill it. It's actually a very valuable role for season long depth we HAVE HAD, but didn't have in 2026.

NEXT, I'd pursue a resign of Minter. He's not the same pitcher he was when he got his crazy $11M per deal. And he's older now as well. But he also still knows how to pitch, and has done well with the Twins. Personally, I don't have a problem with 3 LH options in the pen. Some teams have a hard time finding one. And arms get injured. THREE solid LHRP is a nice luxury to have. If the market doesn't go crazy, I'd expect him to sign for $5M to $7M TOPS. But it's also been interesting the last few offseasons how many solid, veteran arms have been signed for less than projections.

It's a very positive idea that young arms like Raya, and CJ Culpepper, and a few others will take a step forward next season. Hell, while doubtful, if the pitching depth looks so good, maybe Matthews gets converted despite making some major strides this season. And what IF Festa is ACTUALLY healthy and ready to pitch again? He's probably headed to the pen for the rest of his career.

But LH options on the upper levels are rare other than Prielipp...who's staying in the rotation...and Rojas who the Twins SAY is staying as a SP. That makes resigning Minter all the better. But since we aren't quite sure about Gomez, and Sands is a mystery, why not signing a RHRP with a solid track record? This OP isn't necessarily about WHO, but rather, WHAT for payroll. So I'm going to say the Twins DOUBLE DIP and sign a RHRP of some quality to go along with Minter for $5-7M.

LASTLY, this team has been DESPERATE for a 4th or 5th RH OF of quality that can help the roster, especially against LHP, for some time now. And I don't mean a Martin who can only hit against LHP, generally, with no power. And with no FIXED DH, you not only get to rotate your OF, you get the option of semi platoons with a veteran OF who can not only PH, but can also DH once in a while. But with the top 4 OF already set, and a proposed 1B addition, the 5th OF might be ANYONE worthy of the spot.

NOTE: Someone like Grichek would have been a PERFECT option the last few years. But probably not now. MAYBE there's someone similar out there to sign if the Twins don't want to stay internal? Just speculation. 

UNFORTUNATELY, I don't see a way to improve the catching for 2027 unless we sign a veteran for 1yr at $3-5M to replace Jackson. And I honestly haven't looked lately at the FA options available. But the Twins sure aren't going to trade for a catcher with Lakey in the pipeline. So it's probably good defense and good game calling and poor throwing for 2027. It's even possible Jackson overtakes Caratini as the #1 option. But as a receiver only, Caratini is not a bad backstop.

So let's add up the additions and look to the high $ value.

1B: 18M

Minter: $7M

RHRP: $7M

UTILITY INF: $5M

That's $15-18M-ish for a proposed contract for a 1B addition and resigning Minter and adding another solid RHRP to the staff. You want to just push it to $30M, I'm OK with that.

That pushes a potential $100 payroll, without Lewis, to $142M-ish. That is still a LOW payroll. 

I could live with that for 2027 IF they ACCOMPLISHED that. 

Again, I don't want to spend just for the sake of spending.

At that point they COULD just trade Ryan for whatever prospects they could get. But it's a weird point where you trade a TOP SP for whatever you can get, but then sign another pitcher FA to replace him? That makes little sense to me unless you get another Abel type of prospect back. 

What does that cost? Is it worth it based on the rotation on hand and the prospects who have already shown flashes?  ONLY if some team is GOING FOR IT and doesn't care about losing a quality prospect in their intent.

I just don't see a logical reason to sign any FA SP that doesn't cost $40M vs keeping what we have, maybe making a resign, and also trusting in Bradley and Prielipp, etc.

 

[JCT66]

Instead of throwing out round numbers like 30 million or 60 million and opining as to whether that’s good enough, why don’t you actually do the work of figuring out what holes they need to fill in order to be a good team and then determining how much money they would need to fill those holes?  They have a lot of positions filled with fairly young and inexpensive players so I don’t really think they need to go back to the 2023 payroll to be competitive  

They need a bat first catcher on a one year deal. They need a bat at either 1st base or potentially 2nd base if they want to move Clemens to first, and they need at least two set up quality relievers.  I would suggest dedicating real money at those positions would indicate they are serious about 2027. $15 million each for the two position players and another $12 million for the two relievers would represent a huge free agent investment for the Twins compared to the last few years. Thats $42 million in new money.

I would recommend parting with Ober, Royce and Larnach so that probably saves ~$15 million.  Not sure what adjustments for the remaining arbitration eligible players would total. Perhaps $10 million?  That would put total payroll in the $145 million range.  I think that could put a competitive team on the field in 2027. 
 

[terrydactyls]

Trade Ryan and Lopez and use the money (plus extra) to sign Skubal and Graterol.  Try to resign Jeffers but don't go overboard just to get him.  I could live with a #9 hitting catcher with very good defensive skills.  Any money left over could be used for extensions for young players.  2027 may be a shortened season, so I wouldn't be too worried about innings limits for some of the young guys (or even Graterol if he needs a longer spring training to recover from back surgery).  Once the World Series is complete, qualifying offers either accepted or rejected, and the actual free agent list is complete, then we should look at the Twins bulging wallet and how we can spend it all.

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, DocBauer said:

LASTLY, this team has been DESPERATE for a 4th or 5th RH OF of quality that can help the roster, especially against LHP, for some time now. And I don't mean a Martin who can only hit against LHP, generally, with no power. And with no FIXED DH, you not only get to rotate your OF, you get the option of semi platoons with a veteran OF who can not only PH, but can also DH once in a while. But with the top 4 OF already set, and a proposed 1B addition, the 5th OF might be ANYONE worthy of the spot.

I assume you have Buxton, Keaschall, Jenkins and Erod as the top 4 OF already set. 

Are we are "desperate" for Lane Thomas? How much should we spend for someone who is going to take left on left opportunity from Erod or Jenkins? Play 28% of the time. 

And who will it be... Will it be Erod or Jenkins that is going to be chosen as not able to hit left handed pitching for the rest of his career. 

Take my hand... I'll help you climb out of this Rabbit Hole. 

 

[killercarewoliva]

16 hours ago, NYCTK said:

There's a lot I disagree with here, but I'll focus instead on the inflation since that's an interesting question. Seems based on the other information you  provided that $4.50 would be something like $50 today.

But more importantly, I want to point out that despite everyone loving to complain about rising ticket prices, MLB tickets are one of the entertainment products that have failed to explode in cost. Outpaced inflation, perhaps, but not by massive leaps and bounds.

Helps that the Mets are atrocious, but I think the average ticket price I paid in my trips to the ballpark the last couple season was something like $15-$20. Comparing that to concert tickets or a lot of other entertainment products, a trip to the ballpark is still a remarkably good deal! 

The concessions are another beast. 

Yes, even the New York Yankees have a cheap seat way up in the upper deck. but keep in mind and this was some years ago that it cost $1600 behind the Yankees dugout to watch one regular season game. that's what I was referring to things like that and I think the Minnesota twins back seat behind home plate. I'm not sure. I think it's roughly $300 maybe. so when I look at the fans with the view around the stadium less people sit behind home plate than anywhere else

[Whitey333]

Lots of great comments .  I think one of the Twins biggest problems has not been the total payroll dollars but where they are allocated.  Falvey did a terrible job of managing payroll.  The Twins had the highest and second highest payroll kn the Central for most of falveys tenure.  Throwing money at it doesn't guarantee anything except for multi million dollar debt load.  This team needs new upper management.  Plus they just fired their long timr player director Deron Johnson.  A 32 year employee.  

[DJL44]

17 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Payroll should absolutely be a topic in 2027, but there are different ways of spending payroll than on big ticket FAs.  The Twins need to start acting more like successful middle revenue teams like the Brewers, Rays, Guards, etc and sign their future stars to extensions early.  Sure the FA class may be terrible, but if so it's a great opportunity to sign Jenkins and/or Culpepper, ERod, Priellip, Houston, Lackey to long term deals.  It's going to take some payroll to do that though.  

Keaschall and Bradley should be at the top of the list of extensions. It would be nice to have both of them until they're 30. Jenkins and Culpepper would be next on the list.