Week in Review: Walker's Awakening

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The Weekly Nutshell:
We've reached a point in the season where the game outcomes don't really matter. In fact, given the draft order implications, you can very well argue that losing is now more valuable than winning for the Twins. From that perspective, this was a fairly successful week: they dropped four of seven games, leaving themselves with the eighth-worst record in the majors. At present, the Twins are basically a coin flip for a ticket to the 2027 draft lottery. 

More than wins and losses, what we're really focusing on in these remaining games is positive signs from young players and future building blocks. On that front, there was much to like, with an emphatic awakening from Walker Jenkins stealing the show. Let's dig in.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/14 through Sun, 9/20
***
Record Last Week: 3-4 (Overall: 73-83)
Run Differential Last Week: -2 (Overall: -64)
Standing: 4th Place in AL Central (8.0 GB); 6.5 games out of WC

Latest Game Results

Game 150 | NYY 8, MIN 3: Bullpen Collapses in Disastrous 6-Run Eighth Inning

• Morris, Minter: 0.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 1 K 

Game 151 | NYY 8, MIN 1: Yankees Once Again Pull Away in Middle Innings

• Rogers: 1.2 IP, 4 R (0 ER), 3 H, 1 BB, 1 K

Game 152 | MIN 5, NYY 4 (13): Gómez Blows First Save, Twins Outlast Yanks in Extras

• Matthews: 6 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 2 BB, 8 K

Game 153 | LAA 5, MIN 4 (10): Twins Fall in 10 Despite Clutch Homer from Jenkins

• Jenkins: 3-4, HR, 2 RBI

Game 154 | MIN 3, LAA 0: Prielipp Delivers a Gem, Jenkins Has Another 3-Hit Game

• Prielipp: 7 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 2 BB, 8 K

Game 155 | LAA 6, MIN 5 (11): Another Winnable Game Slips Away in Extra Innings

• Ryan: 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 5 K

Game 156 | MIN 8, LAA 0: Twins Earn Split in Lopsided Shutout Win Behind Kremer

• Roden: 3-5, HR, 4 RBI

NEWS & NOTES

Kaelen Culpepper exited Tuesday's game against the Yankees after he tweaked his hamstring while trying to beat out a double play in the sixth. He went on the injured list the following day with a strain, but it's considered minor enough that Culpepper hopes to return as soon as he's eligible, which would enable him to play the final two games of the season.

Ben Ross was recalled to take over Culpepper's spot on the roster and made his first MLB start at shortstop on Wednesday, going 1-for-2 with his first big-league hit, a double. He picked up his first RBI on Sunday and scored his first run on an electric baserunning play.

 

On Friday Trevor Larnach was placed on the injured list with a left wrist sprain, ending his season. Alan Roden returned from Triple-A in a corresponding move. It was a solid season overall for Larnach, who slashed .269/.352/.436 to set a new career high in OPS by nearly 50 points, but his future fit in a crowded outfield mix is murky at best. 

Byron Buxton has undergone arthroscopic hip surgery, which involved "a labral repair with decompression and a cam resection procedure." He's got a considerable rehab journey ahead of him but it sounds like the Twins are hopeful he'll be ready for the start of the regular season, if not day one of spring training. The possibility of a lockout-driven late start to 2027 could work in Buxton's favor in terms of minimizing missed time.

HIGHLIGHTS

Friday night's win over the Angels was exactly the type you tune in for at the tail end of a lost season. It was more or less a meaningless game competitively for both teams, but performances from emerging young members of Minnesota's hopeful future core helped build enthusiasm for what comes next.

Connor Prielipp started for the Twins and pitched the finest game of his career, firing seven shutout innings with eight strikeouts and only two hits allowed. Prielipp pounded the zone with quality stuff and looked every bit like a front-end starter. He's finishing his rookie year strong, with a 2.11 ERA and 19-to-3 K/BB ratio across 21 ⅓ innings in September.

In the same game, Jenkins notched three hits including his third home run. One night earlier, he'd broken out of his career-opening slump very loudly with another three-hit game. He homered in that one as well, his first in the majors off a real pitcher, and it came at a huge moment: With the Twins down to their final out in the ninth, Jenkins tied the score with his two-run blast off a 101-MPH fastball from Angels reliever Ben Joyce. One of the most game-changing swings of the season.

 

Jenkins also had two hits on Saturday and added another one as leadoff man Sunday, rounding out a monster series in Anaheim that erased any sense of concern generated by his slow strart. By the end of weekend, Jenkins had his slash line up to a very respectable .210/.300/.387, showing just how quickly things can shift when the samples are this small. 

The start of Jenkins' Twins career is following a familiar script — he has a history of starting slow at new levels before he inevitably finds his footing. The good news is that once he turns the corner, he doesn't look back, and if that pattern holds in the big leagues it will bode very well for him and the team next year. 

 

Count Luke Keaschall as another critical long-term cornerstone closing out his campaign on a high note. He went 9-for-24 (.375) with three walks and two steals, also setting a franchise record with his 22nd HBP. He has become embedded as Minnesota's everyday right fielder, starting 31 of their last 34 games there — including every game in September up until Sunday's day off. I'm envisioning Keaschall and Jenkins as the lineup's 1-2 combo of the future, and it wouldn't surprise me if that arrangement is in place as soon as Opening Day in 2027.

 

A few other strong performances worth noting from the penultimate week of the season, all carrying pertinence to the team's future outlook:

• Brooks Lee went 10-for-26 (.385) with a double and two RBIs. He also drew two walks, matching his total from the past 34 games. Lee has established his baseline as an average hitter, which has value, but if he's to rise above that it's going to come down to plate discipline. He's got to lay off unfavorable pitches and reduce low-quality contact. That's why I'm really paying attention to his swing decisions here in these final plate appearances. 
• Ryan Kreidler homered twice in his 15 at-bats, pushing his season total to eight. Combine that power production with his defensive skill and versatility, and you've got yourself a very useful roster piece. With both Kreidler and Austin Martin out of options next spring, and suited for somewhat redundant roles, it'll be interesting to see how the Twins proceed.
• I'm also curious to see how the Twins move forward with Roden. He drew a rare start on Sunday and made the most of it, tallying three hits and driving in four. He's also struggling to make a dent in the outfield mix even with Buxton and Larnach down. As I recall, the Twins hinted when they acquired Roden that they might try working him in at first base, where he played some in college. I wonder if they revisit that idea next spring. It's easily his clearest path to semi-regular playing time.
• Zebby Matthews had the best month of his career in August, going 5-0 with a 2.90 ERA, and then got lit up in his first two starts of September (0-2, 11.05 ERA). He got right back on track in his latest turn on Wednesday, helping the Twins avoid a sweep by holding the Yankees scoreless over six frames. Matthews is enigmatic in his variance from start to start, but ultimately he has pitched to the level of a solid back-end starter. Still feels like there is a lot more upside to be tapped in a relief role.
• Taj Bradley completed seven innings the next night, allowing three runs on five hits with one walk and nine strikeouts. His 172 innings pitched not only lead the staff by a wide margin, but are the most logged by any Twins starter in the past two years. A very impressive feat for a guy who did miss time with an IL stint. Bradley's next strikeout will be his 200th — a figure no Twins pitcher has reached since Pablo López in 2023. Before that, José Berríos was the last to do it in 2018.
• Jeff Hoffman is looking like a massive addition to the 2027 bullpen picture. He's been outrageously dominant for the Twins here in September. After posting four more hitless appearances in the past week, he's up to to 8 ⅓ shutout innings this month with 15 strikeouts, three walks and one hit allowed. Overall he's got a 2.12 ERA as a Twin after coming over from Toronto with a 3.94 mark. 

LOWLIGHTS

While Jenkins showed us how quickly a fledgling rookie's fortunes can change for the better, Emmanuel Rodriguez illustrated the opposite. In his first handful of games, he showcased why the Twins are so high on his potential, generating tons of hard contact including a two-run triple against the Yankees on Monday. But in the Angels series, we saw Rodriguez's biggest red flag — the swing and miss — on full display. He went 1-for-14 with seven strikeouts in the series, and now has a 12-to-1 K/BB ratio through 34 MLB plate appearances. 

His overaggressiveness and tendency to chase belie a minor-league track record where Rodriguez's patience often bordered on passivity. It wouldn't surprise me if this is intentional. If the Twins are encouraging him to go out there and take hacks I'm all for it, but going forward we'll need to see him recapture some of that trademark discipline. There's just too much whiff in his game to survive a lack of selectiveness.

While we're on the subject of undisciplined at-bats, Royce Lewis is the banner example. He went 5-for-27 (.185) with nine strikeouts and zero walks, and now has a 20-to-3 ratio here in September. Minnesota's offense has been lagging down the stretch and Lewis is a big reason for it, with a .182 average and one home run in his past 30 games. It sure feels like he's punching his ticket out of town with this finish; the Twins simply have to find more production at first base next year. 

 

Another factor hurting the Twins in their latest September collapse: their two best relievers for the bulk of the season have been ravaged by regression to the mean. Andrew Morris took the loss in Monday's series opener against the Yankees, coughing up three runs while recording just one out. It was his sixth time being charged with a loss in 20 appearances since the start of August — during this span he has a 7.71 ERA, four blown saves, and the second-lowest WPA among MLB relievers (negative-1.84).

Also near the bottom of that WPA list is Yoendrys Gómez, whose charmed run as Twins closer has come to a crashing halt. He was charged with his first blown save in 23 attempts on Wednesday, and his second came the following night in a loss to the Angels. Saturday brought another costly clunker: Gómez allowed two runs to cut a three-run lead down to one, setting up an eventual comeback win for Los Angeles.

 

Gómez gave up multiple runs in three of his four appearances last week, and now has a 13.50 ERA and 10-to-10 K/BB ratio in his past eight, lifting his ERA as a Twin by nearly two full runs (from 1.85 to 3.83). There have been some redeeming aspects to this ugly stretch — still missing bats, keeping the ball in the park — but the lack of command is becoming a very serious issue. I certainly wouldn't say he's playing his way out of the team's plans next year but he might be pitching his way out of a high-leverage role. We're coming to see why Gómez has passed through five organizations in the past two years.

TRENDING STORYLINE

The last week of the season is upon us. The Twins were officially eliminated from postseason contention on Sunday night, so thus our attention turns to one vital question: how do they avoid the same fate next year?

The players to watch closely will be those who can catalyze the turnaround. Will Jenkins build upon this breakout series and finish strong? Can Rodriguez shake off his strikeout woes and take some momentum into the offseason? Will Culpepper make it back for the final weekend at Target Field? 

We'll also see one last turn through a rotation that enters the offseason with some uncertainty looming. Matthews, Bradley and Prielipp are scheduled to start consecutive games in the middle of the week, and are the main sources of optimism for this unit going forward: all controlled for multiple years and coming off healthy, largely effective second halves. Each of the three hurlers set a new career high for workload. We'll see if Prielipp makes that last scheduled start on Friday or if the Twins opt to shut him down and call it good at 120 innings pitched.

The veterans surrounding these three are where the uncertainty comes in. Bailey Ober was scheduled to start the series opener in San Francisco before entering Sunday's game in relief of Dean Kremer, with whom he combined for a shutout. Those two represent key decision points for 2027 rotation planning. They each provided some value as reasonably priced back-end starters, and it seems likely that one will be back next year but probably not both. Which one would you hold, if either?

Joe Ryan was shaping up as an offseason trade candidate before another injury-fueled second-half fade torpedoed his stock. He's looked merely okay in three starts since coming off the IL, and the Twins have lost six straight games with him on the mound. Ryan will enter his walk year with much to prove.

LOOKING AHEAD

The final week on the schedule opens with a three-game series in San Francisco against one of the seven teams in baseball boasting a worse record than the Twins. Neither club will be too invested in the outcome. That figures to change in the last series, at least on one side. The Rangers are neck-and-neck with Houston atop the AL West and will be playing with urgency in a postseason race almost regardless what happens in the next few days. 

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 21: TWINS @ GIANTS — TBD v. RHP Landen Roupp
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 22: TWINS @ GIANTS — RHP Zebby Matthews v. RHP Blade Tidwell
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 23: TWINS @ GIANTS — RHP Taj Bradley v. RHP Anthony Molina
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 25: RANGERS @ TWINS — RHP Cal Quantrill v. LHP Connor Prielipp
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 26: RANGERS @ TWINS — RHP Jacob deGrom v. RHP Joe Ryan
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 27: RANGERS @ TWINS — LHP MacKenzie Gore v. RHP Dean Kremer

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[Mike Sixel]

Lewis for a minor league pitcher..... That's my plan. 

[mikelink45]

36 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Lewis for a minor league pitcher..... That's my plan. 

That won't be a very good prospect 

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Lewis for a minor league pitcher..... That's my plan. 

Maybe Matt Mikulski is available again?

[Geno48]

Yes, Lewis needs to go.   He’s in the way of promising prospect… his body building program not designed  for baseball…apparently.

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Lewis for a minor league pitcher..... That's my plan. 

I'd be fine with it being another change of scenery type player too. Don't know who that is, but it feels like he could use a change of scenery too.