The 5 Biggest What-Ifs for the 2026 Twins

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

There is still baseball left to play, but the 2026 Minnesota Twins are already in the process of becoming a massive what-if. The Twins entered the season believing they could contend. Last winter, they held onto Joe Ryan, Byron Buxton and Pablo López after plenty of offseason speculation about the direction of the franchise. They added pieces at the trade deadline rather than immediately tearing things apart, hoping their veteran core could keep them in the postseason race.

Instead, Minnesota has watched its season unravel. Some of that was predictable. Some of it was self-inflicted. And some of it came down to circumstances nobody could have completely controlled.

The Twins currently find themselves looking toward 2027 rather than October. That makes it worth looking back at the biggest turning points of the season. There are plenty of individual moments that could have changed Minnesota's fortunes, but these five what-ifs stand above the rest.

1. What if Pablo López stayed healthy?

This one is impossible to ignore. López was supposed to be one of the anchors of Minnesota's rotation. Instead, an elbow injury ended his 2026 season before spring training had barely started. 

The timing was particularly painful because Minnesota entered the season with questions about whether some starters would need to move to bullpen roles. Joe Ryan and Lopez were supposed to lead the group. Without López, the Twins were forced to ask younger and less proven arms to take on larger roles.

That changed the entire complexion of the rotation. A healthy López would not have solved every problem, but he would have given Derek Shelton another legitimate frontline starter. It could have reduced the workload on the younger pitchers, provided more stability during stretches when the rotation struggled and potentially changed the Twins' decision-making at the deadline.

There is also a larger question here. Would Minnesota have been in a different position entering August if López had been healthy all season? That is one of the biggest unanswered questions of 2026.

2. What if Joe Ryan avoided his second-half struggles?

Ryan's first half made the Twins' decision to remain competitive much easier. He established himself as an All-Star-caliber starter and was one of the most important reasons Minnesota remained within striking distance of the postseason picture. That made the idea of trading him at the deadline difficult, even as his name continued to appear in trade speculation.

Then the second half happened. Ryan's struggles have been well documented, and they came at precisely the wrong time for a team that needed its best starting pitcher to consistently deliver. Even when Minnesota's offense showed signs of life, the rotation needed Ryan to provide length and stability.

Instead, the Twins have spent much of the second half searching for that version of Ryan. What if he had continued pitching like the pitcher Twins fans saw earlier in the year? 

Maybe Minnesota never falls out of contention. Maybe the additions of A.J. Minter, Dean Kremer and Jeff Hoffman become pieces of a legitimate postseason push rather than additions to a team that eventually faded. Ryan's second half doesn't explain the entire collapse, but it certainly belongs on the list.

3. What if Byron Buxton stayed healthy?

This is the easiest what-if to understand. When Buxton is healthy, he changes the Twins. He changes the lineup. He changes the defense. He changes the way opposing pitchers approach Minnesota. Most importantly, he gives the team a superstar capable of carrying an offense for stretches.

Buxton was having another productive season before injuries once again interrupted his year. He hit .254 with 25 home runs and 46 RBIs in 93 games before a right hip injury ended his season and sent him toward surgery. That means Minnesota received fewer than 100 games from one of its most important players.

It is difficult to build a playoff-caliber roster around constant uncertainty at the top of the lineup. Buxton's production is important, but so is simply having him available.

What if Buxton played 110 games? The Twins would have had another middle-of-the-order threat for the entire season. They would have had their best defensive center fielder available more often. And they would have had one of the most dangerous players in the American League putting pressure on opposing teams every night.

There is no guarantee that changes the season. But it certainly changes the possibilities.

4. What if the Twins added to the bullpen last winter?

This might be the biggest organizational what-if. Minnesota knew it had bullpen questions entering 2026. The previous year's deadline sell-off had stripped away several established relief options, and rebuilding that group should have been one of the team's biggest priorities.

Instead, the bullpen remained a major concern throughout the season. That doesn't mean every reliever needed to be an expensive free-agent signing. The Twins could have added depth, competition and another proven late-inning arm. 

Instead, they eventually had to address the problem during the season. The Twins added Minter and Hoffman at the deadline, but by then the margin for error was much smaller. The bullpen was being asked to hold together games in a playoff race rather than enter the season as a strength.

If Minnesota had entered April with a deeper and more reliable bullpen, perhaps some of those early close losses become wins. Perhaps the team enters July with a better record. Perhaps the front office has more flexibility at the deadline. A few extra bullpen wins can completely change the trajectory of a season.

5. What if the Twins had sold at the deadline?

This is the biggest philosophical what-if. Minnesota had every reason to sell.

The organization had already demonstrated that it was willing to prioritize the future after last year's deadline sell-off. The Twins were not a clear postseason team entering this year's deadline, and there were legitimate questions about whether their roster was good enough to make a sustained run.

Instead, they bought. That decision wasn't necessarily unreasonable at the time. The Twins were close enough to the playoff picture (roughly 30% playoff odds) to justify taking a shot, and the additions of Minter, Kremer and Hoffman were designed to improve the roster immediately.

But what if they had gone the other direction? Ryan Jeffers, Josh Bell and other veterans could have generated significant interest. Minnesota could have added more prospects to an organization that already needs to balance its current major-league roster with its next competitive window.

The biggest benefit would have been clarity. Rather than spending August and September wondering whether the team could make one more push, the Twins could have fully committed to 2027 and beyond. Of course, selling would have come with its own risks. It would have meant admitting that the 2026 season was over while the team was still technically within reach of a playoff spot. That is exactly why this is a fascinating what-if.

A Not So Unrealistic Fantasy

The frustrating part about the 2026 Twins is that none of these scenarios require an unrealistic fantasy. A healthy López was possible. A strong second half from Ryan was possible. A healthy Buxton was possible. A better bullpen entering the season was possible. And selling at the deadline was certainly possible.

None of those things guarantees the Twins would be playing postseason baseball. But the combination of them paints a dramatically different picture of the season. That is ultimately what makes 2026 so frustrating. Minnesota didn't need everything to go perfectly to make the playoffs. It simply needed more things to go right than actually did.

Now the organization has to figure out which lessons from this season actually matter. The Twins can't change what happened in 2026. They can, however, make sure the same what-ifs aren't still defining this team a year from now.

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Would you add other "what ifs" to the list? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[LastOnePicked]

It's not an unrealistic fantasy, no - but the outcome wasn't exactly unexpected. Lopez and Buxton have significant injury histories. Ryan has had hiccups that suggest late-season fatigue. The fact that Buxton, Ryan, Lopez and Jeffers were all in good condition in the offseason was something of a miracle. To me, it would have signaled a clear opportunity to move on while value was high. Especially right after a bullpen-decimating fire sale.

I get that this wouldn't have been a popular move. I guess I'd rather have ownership that was focused on maximizing it's chances to improve the organization than seeming like the "good guy" with an already-dwindling fanbase. 

It was a risk, and it all utterly backfired. It didn't bring even a WC berth and it certainly hurt the team's future prospects for winning. I'd say that's Tom Pohlad's problem, but in reality it's probably more of a problem for those of us who want to see the Twins in a World Series again someday.

[PuckettPond]

If Twins fans supported the team by attending games. Giving ownership reason to move the team to Vegas. Worst attendance in decades.

[Andy MacPhail]

What if Varland wasn't traded? That would have gone a long way. What if they started cleaning house with Falvey a year earlier? What ifs doesn't do us any good. What is done is done & try to learn from the past. 

[TheLeviathan]

3 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

It's not an unrealistic fantasy, no - but the outcome wasn't exactly unexpected. Lopez and Buxton have significant injury histories. Ryan has had hiccups that suggest late-season fatigue. The fact that Buxton, Ryan, Lopez and Jeffers were all in good condition in the offseason was something of a miracle. To me, it would have signaled a clear opportunity to move on while value was high. Especially right after a bullpen-decimating fire sale.

I get that this wouldn't have been a popular move. I guess I'd rather have ownership that was focused on maximizing it's chances to improve the organization than seeming like the "good guy" with an already-dwindling fanbase. 

It was a risk, and it all utterly backfired. It didn't bring even a WC berth and it certainly hurt the team's future prospects for winning. I'd say that's Tom Pohlad's problem, but in reality it's probably more of a problem for those of us who want to see the Twins in a World Series again someday.

Even full health I don't think we're in all that different a position.  What would a healthy Buxton and Ryan have added?  A couple of wins?  We're about to be 11 games under .500, I think people (not you I know) need to stop pointing at injuries.

This was a team that was only "in contention" for these highly dubious reasons:

1) Their offense - lead by such stalwarts as Victor Caratini, Trevor Larnach, Tristan Gray, Ryan Kreidler, and others - hit out of their minds for about a month.  They especially hit out of their minds in the most convenient of circumstances - with runners on and in scoring position.  They sequenced their way into way more chances than they deserved and then capitalized on them at a ridiculous rate.  That wasn't sustainable and, contrary to arguments made by those still living in a fantasy world, was completely predictable.  More than once even!

2) The AL was hot garbage.  The idea that the rest of the league was going to spend two more months being terrible, when they had likely regression as well (but in a good way!), was also a dubious bet.  That has also proven true as several teams have improved their play enough to make the final spot likely to require 83+ wins.  To hit 83 wins, at the deadline, would've required the Twins to play significantly better baseball than they played all year AND survive the inevitable swoon of their offensive luck.

It was just a really, really obviously bad bet to make.  But man, we were fired up about it!  These posts.....are......embarrassing.  

[strumdatjag]

2 hours ago, PuckettPond said:

If Twins fans supported the team by attending games. Giving ownership reason to move the team to Vegas. Worst attendance in decades.

Vegas already has the Athletics.   Maybe, Nashville, New Orleans, maybe even Louisville (which has a long history of supporting minor league baseball). 

[D.C Twins]

"That decision wasn't necessarily unreasonable at the time."

(Narrator's Voice)  It was... 

[D.C Twins]

2 hours ago, PuckettPond said:

If Twins fans supported the team by attending games. Giving ownership reason to move the team to Vegas. Worst attendance in decades.

Don't worry... the Pohlads aren't smart or savvy enough to pull anything like that off. 

[bjorks]

While I don't disagree, there's a few assumptions we're making here that are 

1) All BB has proven (sadly) through his career is his magic number for games played sits in the 90-100 range. There's ZERO evidence he's more than that. 140 games 1x (2017) and played over 100 2x since 2017. He's never going to be that guy and trying to "get" him to play 110'ish or more games hurts us (like this year) more than it helps. It's a waste of energy to guess what BB playing 130 games means because it simply hasn't happened. He's averaged 82 games since 2015.

2) Similar thing with JR - 1st half over is career (516+ inn, 3.17 ERA) vs 2nd half (245 inn, 4.96 ERA). While his xFIP between the two are similar, JR is a bit of an outlier because you can't exactly pinpoint where it's going wrong other than injury and hard hit %. JR, like BB, has done nothing (over his shorter career arch) to prove otherwise. We hope he figures it out, but hope is not a strategy. 

If there's any type of season in 2027, I have optimism we'll compete for AL Central. They're most likely going to have to spend, maybe a considerable amount. Our season ending payroll is I think less than $110MM - what IF they had to reach a floor of a suspected $171MM+ floor? $60MM can fix a lot of our problems and it doesn't mean just going and signing Skubal to a $45/yr deal. 

Would be fun to go after a Pivetta (metrics are way better than #'s), Carlos Estevez, Alec Bohm, and obviously the BP. And so F'ing help me if we go into next year with Caratini as our #1!