1B for next season

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I like all of this. I have a couple of questions to follow up;

1) Why Keaschall in left and not right? Just curious.

2) I have Pablo, Ryan and Bradley for sure in the rotation to start the year. I also have one of Kremer or Ober (not both) and probably Prielipp. Then behind them, you have Abel (who, if he is healthy in spring I put ahead of either Kremer or Ober) and then you have Zebby either as the 7th/8th starter or moved to the bullpen. My question is, do you keep all of those guys AND sign another starter? Or do you move some of these guys either in trade or to the bullpen and THEN sign a starter?

3) For the bullpen, all of that is easier to find room. For next year, they should have Hoffman and Gomez back, and then depending on if Anthony Banda is healthy he should be there too. I'd imagine they also would pencil in Andrew Morris again, but that leaves at least a few spots.

4) Basically, my question is, when you say to spend money on pitching, what would that look like for you? 1 starter and 2 relievers? 2 relievers? 3 relievers? How would you draw out your rotation and bullpen if it was up to you?

They had all those starters except Kremer and still ran out of starters by the third week of April and I’m non-tendering Ober, he’s cooked.

im signing a mid-rotation starter

Re-signing Jeffers C

Signing 1b/DH to pair with Keaschall (I’d love Jake Bauers)

Extending one of Lopez or Ryan (2028+ money) guessing Lopez is the most likely

 

 

 

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

1) Why Keaschall in left and not right? Just curious.

Weak arm goes to LF. He seems to be getting better in the OF. He's fast enough to cover some ground.

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I’m non-tendering Ober, he’s cooked.

Bailey Ober has the 3rd highest bWAR of any pitcher on the Twins

[Cory Engelhardt]

20 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Bailey Ober has the 3rd highest bWAR of any pitcher on the Twins

That's for this season, with both Abel and Lopez out. 

I have to think a full season (granted, barring health) of Abel and Lopez and Prielipp, I can't see Ober being above any of them in 2027. Not with his diminishing velocities.

For this season, sure.

[Cory Engelhardt]

33 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

They had all those starters except Kremer and still ran out of starters by the third week of April and I’m non-tendering Ober, he’s cooked.

im signing a mid-rotation starter

Re-signing Jeffers C

Signing 1b/DH to pair with Keaschall (I’d love Jake Bauers)

Extending one of Lopez or Ryan (2028+ money) guessing Lopez is the most likely

 

 

 

I like all of this.

Who do you like as the mid rotation starter? And how would you (knocking on wood, assume health is good) be in your opening day rotation then?

[DJL44]

Just now, Cory Engelhardt said:

That's for this season, with both Abel and Lopez out. 

I have to think a full season (granted, barring health) of Abel and Lopez and Prielipp, I can't see Ober being above any of them in 2027. Not with his diminishing velocities.

For this season, sure.

I can't see Abel or Lopez bouncing back to pitch 160+ innings next season. I expect both pitchers will have their innings monitored closely. Worst case, they can stash Ober in the bullpen until he's needed in the rotation.

[DocBauer]

Regarding the OP directly first:

I didn't vote because I'm having a tough time giving up on Lewis, but 1B is also probably the best chance to actually add a BIG BAT. Lewis has been slumping lately, but the player that came back from his demotion looks to be a .265-.275 hitter with 30 Dbls and 20 HR and a decent glove at 1B that is getting better and better.

THAT version of Lewis would be a solid 1B and BAT. But can we get that player for a full season? That's the $1M question isn't it? He's too young yet...just entering his prime years...to give up on, but too frustrating and inconsistent to necessarily want to bank on.

The Twins could also add a BIG BAT at the DH spot, but I don't know that I like that when I see so many internal options that could fill that spot just taking half days off.

OF: Buxton, Keaschall, Jenkins, and Rodriguez. For the most part, they all play every day, which is why having the DH open makes so much sense. I really don't see the logic in adding a BIG BAT in the OF with those guys on hand. However, I can see a solid,  veteran RH OF being added unless they think Gonzalez is ready. Martin is basically a LF who will hit at the bottom of the order if kept. They could use a other RH bat that can damage LHP but not stink against RHP. I don't see adding a BIG BAT here, just a solid one.

INF: For the moment, I'm leaving Houston out of the equation. Lee might be an All Star player, but he's really solid at 3B, already has about 50 XBH, including 20+ HR. You'd have to spend a ton of $ or prospect capital to do better. And you aren't going to replace K-Pepper at this point. He's probably the 2B when Houston is ready, but currently Clemens has that spot. Again, not an All Star, but a decent glove and over 50 XBH and 24 HR and over 70 RBI. Who do you get to replace that unless you go BIG. And that doesn't seem to make sense.

CATCHER: MAYBE they add someone better than Jackson, but Caratini is $10M in 2027 and Jeffers isn't going to resign barring a MAJOR offer, which makes no sense with Lackey on the way. 

So that really leaves 1B as the ONE real spot to add a BIG BAT, and move Lewis. Unless there's a Cruz clone waiting out there, I see DH as being a rotation spot for half days off, to work in all 4 primary OF, and when Houston is ready, Clemens might also spend some time there.

It's really hard to let Lewis go and potentially see him reach his potential with someone else. But then again, a "bird in the hand" might be the best approach. And through trade or FA, maybe adding a 1B as the BIG BAT this team seems to need might be the best play.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, DocBauer said:

Regarding the OP directly first:

I didn't vote because I'm having a tough time giving up on Lewis, but 1B is also probably the best chance to actually add a BIG BAT. Lewis has been slumping lately, but the player that came back from his demotion looks to be a .265-.275 hitter with 30 Dbls and 20 HR and a decent glove at 1B that is getting better and better.

THAT version of Lewis would be a solid 1B and BAT. But can we get that player for a full season? That's the $1M question isn't it? He's too young yet...just entering his prime years...to give up on, but too frustrating and inconsistent to necessarily want to bank on.

The Twins could also add a BIG BAT at the DH spot, but I don't know that I like that when I see so many internal options that could fill that spot just taking half days off.

OF: Buxton, Keaschall, Jenkins, and Rodriguez. For the most part, they all play every day, which is why having the DH open makes so much sense. I really don't see the logic in adding a BIG BAT in the OF with those guys on hand. However, I can see a solid,  veteran RH OF being added unless they think Gonzalez is ready. Martin is basically a LF who will hit at the bottom of the order if kept. They could use a other RH bat that can damage LHP but not stink against RHP. I don't see adding a BIG BAT here, just a solid one.

INF: For the moment, I'm leaving Houston out of the equation. Lee might be an All Star player, but he's really solid at 3B, already has about 50 XBH, including 20+ HR. You'd have to spend a ton of $ or prospect capital to do better. And you aren't going to replace K-Pepper at this point. He's probably the 2B when Houston is ready, but currently Clemens has that spot. Again, not an All Star, but a decent glove and over 50 XBH and 24 HR and over 70 RBI. Who do you get to replace that unless you go BIG. And that doesn't seem to make sense.

CATCHER: MAYBE they add someone better than Jackson, but Caratini is $10M in 2027 and Jeffers isn't going to resign barring a MAJOR offer, which makes no sense with Lackey on the way. 

So that really leaves 1B as the ONE real spot to add a BIG BAT, and move Lewis. Unless there's a Cruz clone waiting out there, I see DH as being a rotation spot for half days off, to work in all 4 primary OF, and when Houston is ready, Clemens might also spend some time there.

It's really hard to let Lewis go and potentially see him reach his potential with someone else. But then again, a "bird in the hand" might be the best approach. And through trade or FA, maybe adding a 1B as the BIG BAT this team seems to need might be the best play.

An outfield thread is certainly one that should maybe be different from this one. But I have a hard time penciling Rodriguez or Martin or Gonzalez into the outfield picture in 2027. I mean, Rodriguez is out of options and on the 40 and still hasn't been called up? Are we certain they believe in him being up next year? And Martin, I don't know, he was great in April and then just pretty absent otherwise. And Gonzalez, I'm not even certain he is a big leaguer, and certainly hasn't shown to be someone who can be above average defensively.

I THINK you can certainly get a big bat in the outfield and then roll with Jenkins and Keaschall and big bat addition along with HOPEFULLY Buxton being ok. But maybe Rodriguez is in their plans even though he hasn't been called up?

Infield, the middle infield specifically, I'm certain Culpepper is a part of it. I also WANT to think Houston is the one next to him. I just have this question now in my head overall with the smoke from the deadline around potentially looking into Zach Neto. I am NOT saying I think he is the answer, but I certainly am also keeping Brooks Lee around. My question is, IF Tom Pohlad is saying that he wants to do big moves to try and win, that means I'm not certain that the infield grouping includes Culepper and Lee AND Houston. IF they love Houston, great. But I don't know that he is going to be there opening day 2027, so I'm so uncertain what the 3b/ss/2b will look like outside of Culpepper and Lee at 2 of those spots. 

[DocBauer]

Secondly, consider ADDING payroll and how it might happen:

I absolutely don't want the team to spend only for the sake of spending. I want logical roster construction. 

1] I WOULD add a veteran corner, RH OF who beats up LHP and can be solid against RHP to be the 5th OF. He can also DH some. He would also allow greater depth in case of injury. Sorry, but Martin at #5 is not what this team needs. They need a veteran for $4-5M until Gonzalez or someone else is ready for the job. 

That veteran basically replaces Larnach $.

2] As already proposed, you either believe in Lewis just reaching his potential...seemingly the most healthy he's ever been...OR you go out and find a 1B via trade or FA that can be a middle of the order BIG BAT for the next 2-3 years. I just don't know that I like a full time DH that restricts the lineup, unless he's special. So 1B is the ONE spot that makes real sense.

A move for a legitimate BIG BAT 1B DOES add to the payroll. I'd say a good $15M if not a couple more.

3] I'd absolutely give Jeffers the QO and recoup the draft pick. He's going to refuse, and he should, because someone...probably the Yankees...are going to give him 4-5yrs at $15M+. And bless him, he and his family are going to be set. The Twins just aren't going to do that, and they can't/shouldn't. So the Twins gratefully accept an additional top 50 pick.

No change $ there except the loss of Jeffers $6+M. Unless....

4] Despite all the hubbub about how valuable Jackson is, he's super inexpensive. And he's a solid catcher. But he's nothing special, which is why he keeps slipping through waivers unclaimed. Caratini is a solid, smart, veteran receiver who's bat is OK, but inconsistent. But nobody will want him unless the Twins pay down his 2027 $10M owed. BUT, MAYBE, the Twins spend another $4-5M on a veteran catcher with a better bat than Jackson to compete and work with Caratini. I think this is a MAJOR STRETCH, but not an impossible one.

For now, neutral $ other than a bump for Caratini this upcoming season.

5] Sorry, I just don't see a signing for the starting staff. But I'd LOVE an extension for Lopez or Ryan. I think Lopez is the obvious candidate coming of his 2nd TJ. He's talented, super smart, and a leader. And he would probably realize a 3yr deal for $75M just makes too much sense for his future, and for his family. He'd still have a shot at ANOTHER contract at 33yo if he continues to pitch well. NOTHING against Ryan, who I love, I'm just looking at things as logically as I can.

Currently, 2027 has Lopez, Ryan, Bradley, Abel, Prielipp, Kremer, and Matthews as the top 7 SP options. With all due respect to Ober...who I believe has value as a back end starter...he's either traded or non tendered. And while that makes me sad, it's just a reality. But I also see Rojas as a SP option still, along with Gallagher...possibly pressed to AAA a little sooner than expected...and a few others that could be "fill in" options that might include Paredes, not to mention maybe Quick by mid season.

Lopez, Ryan, Bradley, Abel, Prielipp, etc, why do you spend $ for a FA with those options available if everyone is healthy? You trade Ryan and then have to sign someone else? What have you accomplished? Now, if you get another Abel type back, OK. But the rotation is good as is.

I don't see a payroll jump here for 2027 unless the Twins trade and sign. But as I've pointed out, it doesn't make a lot of sense.

6] The bullpen is where spending some $ starts to make sense. Gomez is cheap. So is Morris. So are countless options from Sands to Nance to Raya to Acton, etc, etc.

A healthy Banda is still under team control, but might require another $1.5-2M. I'd do that. Minter will be a FA again. He's still solid, done well so far with the Twins, but he's just not going to get another $11M deal. At 34yo in 2027 he's looking at 1 and 2 year deals that pay him $4-5M

I'd bring BOTH Banda and Minter back for 2027. Funderburk, who might play a part in the 2027 bullpen, is the ONLY internally developed LH option in years. 

Hard to calculate how much is spent here since Banda probably gets a small raise and Minter takes a dive from $11M. The Twins probably "save" $ based on past contracts, but end up spending about $12-13M to keep both LHP options. 

Hoffman costs about $7.5M with the $ thrown in by the Jays.

The Twins lose $ from FA departure, but spend additional $ on a few arbitration moves. Not many, but there are some. But Larnach and Bell gone more or less negate any internal raises. And Jeffers gone adds another $6+M. 

So roughly $18M is off the books and another what, $10-15M goes to raises and Hoffman? So the payroll is close to neutral at that point? 

So a 5th veteran RH OF is max $5M for discussion. 

A resign of Lopez doesn't factor until 2028.

Keeping Banda and resigning Minter keeps the payroll really close to $110-115 with Hoffman on board. 

The point ultimately is the Twins DON'T have to suddenly spend ONLY to spend.

They have the ability to SPEND for 2028 by resigning Lopez or Ryan.

They have the ability to keep Banda and Minter, unless they want to look elsewhere. But these are a couple of really solid LH bullpen options that don't have anyone in the system pressing them.

So maybe when we talk about the 2027 payroll, maybe we should be talking more about Keeping some of what we have, in addition to what we need to lose, or are going to lose.

YES to Keeping Banda and Minter, and MAYBE adding a FA RP to add what's on hand.

MAYBE just trade Lewis for whatever you can get and add a powerful BIG BAT at 1B and be grateful for the ADD vs any potential loss.

The CRAZY thing is, I can see a $130-140M payroll....WAY lower than it should be...where this team is very good with the young talent on hand, adding 1 BIG BAT, and keeping the bullpen as is, with a couple additions internally or externally, and be ready for a competitive 2027.

It's not about the $ spent. It's about HOW it's spent. This team, IMO, is SO CLOSE to being really good! 

But they need ownership to be on board as well. And they need a FO that can make smart decisions. 

I don't like or dislike Zole at this point. But I sure have doubts. And I don't think I'd give him more than a season to prove he's different than Falvey. 

But OK, neutral results for most options. A veteran OF simply replaces Larnach. 

An extension of Lopez doesn't factor until 2028.

Arbitration raises are pretty much covered by Jeffers and Bell, with a little left over.

So KEEPING Banda and Minter and Hoffman and ONE BIG BAT adds something close to $20-25M TOPS? Rough calculations at this point. So a $130M payroll is where the Twins were a year ago? IMO, that's the MINIMUM for ownership to prove they are invested. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

12 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Secondly, consider ADDING payroll and how it might happen:

I absolutely don't want the team to spend only for the sake of spending. I want logical roster construction. 

1] I WOULD add a veteran corner, RH OF who beats up LHP and can be solid against RHP to be the 5th OF. He can also DH some. He would also allow greater depth in case of injury. Sorry, but Martin at #5 is not what this team needs. They need a veteran for $4-5M until Gonzalez or someone else is ready for the job. 

That veteran basically replaces Larnach $.

2] As already proposed, you either believe in Lewis just reaching his potential...seemingly the most healthy he's ever been...OR you go out and find a 1B via trade or FA that can be a middle of the order BIG BAT for the next 2-3 years. I just don't know that I like a full time DH that restricts the lineup, unless he's special. So 1B is the ONE spot that makes real sense.

A move for a legitimate BIG BAT 1B DOES add to the payroll. I'd say a good $15M if not a couple more.

3] I'd absolutely give Jeffers the QO and recoup the draft pick. He's going to refuse, and he should, because someone...probably the Yankees...are going to give him 4-5yrs at $15M+. And bless him, he and his family are going to be set. The Twins just aren't going to do that, and they can't/shouldn't. So the Twins gratefully accept an additional top 50 pick.

No change $ there except the loss of Jeffers $6+M. Unless....

4] Despite all the hubbub about how valuable Jackson is, he's super inexpensive. And he's a solid catcher. But he's nothing special, which is why he keeps slipping through waivers unclaimed. Caratini is a solid, smart, veteran receiver who's bat is OK, but inconsistent. But nobody will want him unless the Twins pay down his 2027 $10M owed. BUT, MAYBE, the Twins spend another $4-5M on a veteran catcher with a better bat than Jackson to compete and work with Caratini. I think this is a MAJOR STRETCH, but not an impossible one.

For now, neutral $ other than a bump for Caratini this upcoming season.

5] Sorry, I just don't see a signing for the starting staff. But I'd LOVE an extension for Lopez or Ryan. I think Lopez is the obvious candidate coming of his 2nd TJ. He's talented, super smart, and a leader. And he would probably realize a 3yr deal for $75M just makes too much sense for his future, and for his family. He'd still have a shot at ANOTHER contract at 33yo if he continues to pitch well. NOTHING against Ryan, who I love, I'm just looking at things as logically as I can.

Currently, 2027 has Lopez, Ryan, Bradley, Abel, Prielipp, Kremer, and Matthews as the top 7 SP options. With all due respect to Ober...who I believe has value as a back end starter...he's either traded or non tendered. And while that makes me sad, it's just a reality. But I also see Rojas as a SP option still, along with Gallagher...possibly pressed to AAA a little sooner than expected...and a few others that could be "fill in" options that might include Paredes, not to mention maybe Quick by mid season.

Lopez, Ryan, Bradley, Abel, Prielipp, etc, why do you spend $ for a FA with those options available if everyone is healthy? You trade Ryan and then have to sign someone else? What have you accomplished? Now, if you get another Abel type back, OK. But the rotation is good as is.

I don't see a payroll jump here for 2027 unless the Twins trade and sign. But as I've pointed out, it doesn't make a lot of sense.

6] The bullpen is where spending some $ starts to make sense. Gomez is cheap. So is Morris. So are countless options from Sands to Nance to Raya to Acton, etc, etc.

A healthy Banda is still under team control, but might require another $1.5-2M. I'd do that. Minter will be a FA again. He's still solid, done well so far with the Twins, but he's just not going to get another $11M deal. At 34yo in 2027 he's looking at 1 and 2 year deals that pay him $4-5M

I'd bring BOTH Banda and Minter back for 2027. Funderburk, who might play a part in the 2027 bullpen, is the ONLY internally developed LH option in years. 

Hard to calculate how much is spent here since Banda probably gets a small raise and Minter takes a dive from $11M. The Twins probably "save" $ based on past contracts, but end up spending about $12-13M to keep both LHP options. 

Hoffman costs about $7.5M with the $ thrown in by the Jays.

The Twins lose $ from FA departure, but spend additional $ on a few arbitration moves. Not many, but there are some. But Larnach and Bell gone more or less negate any internal raises. And Jeffers gone adds another $6+M. 

So roughly $18M is off the books and another what, $10-15M goes to raises and Hoffman? So the payroll is close to neutral at that point? 

So a 5th veteran RH OF is max $5M for discussion. 

A resign of Lopez doesn't factor until 2028.

Keeping Banda and resigning Minter keeps the payroll really close to $110-115 with Hoffman on board. 

The point ultimately is the Twins DON'T have to suddenly spend ONLY to spend.

They have the ability to SPEND for 2028 by resigning Lopez or Ryan.

They have the ability to keep Banda and Minter, unless they want to look elsewhere. But these are a couple of really solid LH bullpen options that don't have anyone in the system pressing them.

So maybe when we talk about the 2027 payroll, maybe we should be talking more about Keeping some of what we have, in addition to what we need to lose, or are going to lose.

YES to Keeping Banda and Minter, and MAYBE adding a FA RP to add what's on hand.

MAYBE just trade Lewis for whatever you can get and add a powerful BIG BAT at 1B and be grateful for the ADD vs any potential loss.

The CRAZY thing is, I can see a $130-140M payroll....WAY lower than it should be...where this team is very good with the young talent on hand, adding 1 BIG BAT, and keeping the bullpen as is, with a couple additions internally or externally, and be ready for a competitive 2027.

It's not about the $ spent. It's about HOW it's spent. This team, IMO, is SO CLOSE to being really good! 

But they need ownership to be on board as well. And they need a FO that can make smart decisions. 

I don't like or dislike Zole at this point. But I sure have doubts. And I don't think I'd give him more than a season to prove he's different than Falvey. 

But OK, neutral results for most options. A veteran OF simply replaces Larnach. 

An extension of Lopez doesn't factor until 2028.

Arbitration raises are pretty much covered by Jeffers and Bell, with a little left over.

So KEEPING Banda and Minter and Hoffman and ONE BIG BAT adds something close to $20-25M TOPS? Rough calculations at this point. So a $130M payroll is where the Twins were a year ago? IMO, that's the MINIMUM for ownership to prove they are invested. 

I like all of this. I really do.

Instead of a 5th OF type though, I'd rather they either trade for or sign a legit starting option. I don't know who that is, but man would Randy Arozarena look good here. He can DH or play left pretty well, and he would be fantastic in the middle of the lineup.

I'm sure there are other names, but I'd very much want to target a legit option over someone who would just be brought in to face lefties.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

9 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Secondly, consider ADDING payroll and how it might happen:

I absolutely don't want the team to spend only for the sake of spending. I want logical roster construction. 

1] I WOULD add a veteran corner, RH OF who beats up LHP and can be solid against RHP to be the 5th OF. He can also DH some. He would also allow greater depth in case of injury. Sorry, but Martin at #5 is not what this team needs. They need a veteran for $4-5M until Gonzalez or someone else is ready for the job. 

That veteran basically replaces Larnach $.

2] As already proposed, you either believe in Lewis just reaching his potential...seemingly the most healthy he's ever been...OR you go out and find a 1B via trade or FA that can be a middle of the order BIG BAT for the next 2-3 years. I just don't know that I like a full time DH that restricts the lineup, unless he's special. So 1B is the ONE spot that makes real sense.

A move for a legitimate BIG BAT 1B DOES add to the payroll. I'd say a good $15M if not a couple more.

3] I'd absolutely give Jeffers the QO and recoup the draft pick. He's going to refuse, and he should, because someone...probably the Yankees...are going to give him 4-5yrs at $15M+. And bless him, he and his family are going to be set. The Twins just aren't going to do that, and they can't/shouldn't. So the Twins gratefully accept an additional top 50 pick.

No change $ there except the loss of Jeffers $6+M. Unless....

4] Despite all the hubbub about how valuable Jackson is, he's super inexpensive. And he's a solid catcher. But he's nothing special, which is why he keeps slipping through waivers unclaimed. Caratini is a solid, smart, veteran receiver who's bat is OK, but inconsistent. But nobody will want him unless the Twins pay down his 2027 $10M owed. BUT, MAYBE, the Twins spend another $4-5M on a veteran catcher with a better bat than Jackson to compete and work with Caratini. I think this is a MAJOR STRETCH, but not an impossible one.

For now, neutral $ other than a bump for Caratini this upcoming season.

5] Sorry, I just don't see a signing for the starting staff. But I'd LOVE an extension for Lopez or Ryan. I think Lopez is the obvious candidate coming of his 2nd TJ. He's talented, super smart, and a leader. And he would probably realize a 3yr deal for $75M just makes too much sense for his future, and for his family. He'd still have a shot at ANOTHER contract at 33yo if he continues to pitch well. NOTHING against Ryan, who I love, I'm just looking at things as logically as I can.

Currently, 2027 has Lopez, Ryan, Bradley, Abel, Prielipp, Kremer, and Matthews as the top 7 SP options. With all due respect to Ober...who I believe has value as a back end starter...he's either traded or non tendered. And while that makes me sad, it's just a reality. But I also see Rojas as a SP option still, along with Gallagher...possibly pressed to AAA a little sooner than expected...and a few others that could be "fill in" options that might include Paredes, not to mention maybe Quick by mid season.

Lopez, Ryan, Bradley, Abel, Prielipp, etc, why do you spend $ for a FA with those options available if everyone is healthy? You trade Ryan and then have to sign someone else? What have you accomplished? Now, if you get another Abel type back, OK. But the rotation is good as is.

I don't see a payroll jump here for 2027 unless the Twins trade and sign. But as I've pointed out, it doesn't make a lot of sense.

6] The bullpen is where spending some $ starts to make sense. Gomez is cheap. So is Morris. So are countless options from Sands to Nance to Raya to Acton, etc, etc.

A healthy Banda is still under team control, but might require another $1.5-2M. I'd do that. Minter will be a FA again. He's still solid, done well so far with the Twins, but he's just not going to get another $11M deal. At 34yo in 2027 he's looking at 1 and 2 year deals that pay him $4-5M

I'd bring BOTH Banda and Minter back for 2027. Funderburk, who might play a part in the 2027 bullpen, is the ONLY internally developed LH option in years. 

Hard to calculate how much is spent here since Banda probably gets a small raise and Minter takes a dive from $11M. The Twins probably "save" $ based on past contracts, but end up spending about $12-13M to keep both LHP options. 

Hoffman costs about $7.5M with the $ thrown in by the Jays.

The Twins lose $ from FA departure, but spend additional $ on a few arbitration moves. Not many, but there are some. But Larnach and Bell gone more or less negate any internal raises. And Jeffers gone adds another $6+M. 

So roughly $18M is off the books and another what, $10-15M goes to raises and Hoffman? So the payroll is close to neutral at that point? 

So a 5th veteran RH OF is max $5M for discussion. 

A resign of Lopez doesn't factor until 2028.

Keeping Banda and resigning Minter keeps the payroll really close to $110-115 with Hoffman on board. 

The point ultimately is the Twins DON'T have to suddenly spend ONLY to spend.

They have the ability to SPEND for 2028 by resigning Lopez or Ryan.

They have the ability to keep Banda and Minter, unless they want to look elsewhere. But these are a couple of really solid LH bullpen options that don't have anyone in the system pressing them.

So maybe when we talk about the 2027 payroll, maybe we should be talking more about Keeping some of what we have, in addition to what we need to lose, or are going to lose.

YES to Keeping Banda and Minter, and MAYBE adding a FA RP to add what's on hand.

MAYBE just trade Lewis for whatever you can get and add a powerful BIG BAT at 1B and be grateful for the ADD vs any potential loss.

The CRAZY thing is, I can see a $130-140M payroll....WAY lower than it should be...where this team is very good with the young talent on hand, adding 1 BIG BAT, and keeping the bullpen as is, with a couple additions internally or externally, and be ready for a competitive 2027.

It's not about the $ spent. It's about HOW it's spent. This team, IMO, is SO CLOSE to being really good! 

But they need ownership to be on board as well. And they need a FO that can make smart decisions. 

I don't like or dislike Zole at this point. But I sure have doubts. And I don't think I'd give him more than a season to prove he's different than Falvey. 

But OK, neutral results for most options. A veteran OF simply replaces Larnach. 

An extension of Lopez doesn't factor until 2028.

Arbitration raises are pretty much covered by Jeffers and Bell, with a little left over.

So KEEPING Banda and Minter and Hoffman and ONE BIG BAT adds something close to $20-25M TOPS? Rough calculations at this point. So a $130M payroll is where the Twins were a year ago? IMO, that's the MINIMUM for ownership to prove they are invested. 

Yes the Twins have to be smart about spending money - they need to start spending but where?  Its extensions - go talk to Ryan's camp but but my guess is they want free agency.  Lopez is the one who you can likely get a reasonable extension done after his injury.  He is so smart and works so hard at keeping his body in good shape.   

1.  So my first order of business is doing an extension with Lopez for 3 years  $50 to $60 million.   

2. You have to keep Joe Ryan.  With the injury I see no one overpaying.  If they do so be it you can consider it, but as of now you keep him.  With his propensity to wear down and get injured at the end of the season, I am not sure he is one I want to invest a ton of money in for long term unless you have a plan to get him rest in the middle of the season.  If we are out of contention at the deadline you can trade him.  The Qualifying offer is likely gone.  We will see if Toms relationship with Joe can get him to sign an undervalued extension, I just don't see it.  

3. 1st Base -  The free agent class is atrocious so unless you are going to trade for a 1st baseman you give Lewis 1 more shot with Clemens as your backup.   Marek Houston is likely starting in AAA next year.  So there is a very real chance he comes up at some point,  Culpepper likely moves to 2nd and then you have Lewis and Clemens fighting for 1st base duties.   See if Lewis can make progress with the bat and that the improvement Clemens has made is real.   

4. Bullpen - I resign Minter 1 year $8 million.   The dude is nails.  I don't see anyone paying him massive money with the decreasing velocity, but I think he has also appreciated the Twins trusting him and pitching him a lot more than the Mets did.  1-2 year deal.    Closer Gomez    High end relievers - Minter, Hoffman   Potential High end - Morris         -   Funderburk, Banda as your lefties.    Nance likely as your 7th arm.  Then Orze, Sands, Anderson, Acton fighting for your last spot and to fill in for injuries.  Continue to work in failed starters during the season but that feels really solid.  

Catcher - Caratini and Jackson -  Just like this year Jackson is cheap insurance - if you can find someone better so be it.   You give the Qualifying offer to Jeffers and every indication is he turns it down.  If he accepts,  there is your better option at Catcher.    Most likely the Twins end with a comp pick.  Jackson is solid but by the DFA's is not someone the Twins are married to even though they do appear to like him as they they have kept him on the roster for the majority of the year.  2027 is a placeholder for 2028.  

Outfield - Rodriguez, Jenkins Buxton, Keaschall,  Gonzalez/Mendez.     Thats a loaded outfield but I see Buxton transitioning to a lot more DH.   Save the hip and try to let him age out gracefully.   Its a young outfield and we will take our lumps - but this is shooting for 28 in my opinion.  Gonzalez and Mendez will likely start getting some 1st base work as well.  

SP - Pick the best pitcher between Ober and Kremer,  trade the other or DFA.  You likely aren't getting much back,  potentially a little more back with Kremer.   I could see more return than what the Twins paid if he can give you 3 more solid starts to end the season.   Personally I keep Kremer as I think the velocity is going to continue to decline for Ober that makes him Unplayable.  You can start the season with a 6 man and transition to a 5 man with injuries or underperformance.  With Lopez and Abel both coming back and Ryans propensity for wearing out during the season,  I would do a lot more rotation of starting pitchers.  Rojas I want a majority of the year in AAA really refining his stuff and to be ready for 28.  

Ryan, Bradley, Lopez, Kremer, Priellip, Abel, Matthews, Rojas 

Ultimately - unless you are spending big on bullpen pitcher (make me laugh),  I don't see where on this team you are going to be spending a lot of money.   Maybe in a year or two.  The issue is if the Twins are forced to increase salary which then maybe we see an early extension to Culpepper or Jenkins.   

This team has  a lot more upside but Catcher position will most likely be a downgrade.   You run with what the team has.  There is a lack of speed on the roster - so maybe Martin finds himself back on the team but I just think for where this team is going I don't see a spot for him.  

I see 27 as the last transition year and 2028 as the year when the offense is good enough to go for it.   So I save most of my money for that year to fill in the holes.  

 

 

[Whammy]

I'm struggling with the idea of signing a mid-rotation starter. At first blush it sounds logical, based on what has happened this year and the depth that was required, but in practice it squeezes the roster/organization in ways that probably don't make sense. If I'm the GM I'd prepare for a few injuries, but preparing for extreme injury issues might start to do more harm than good.

In my mind it's sort of like QBs in the NFL. Does it make sense to have an extremely capable backup QB? In a vacuum, yes. If your star QB gets injured, you don't want your season to completely tank. But that backup might cost $10M and in your ideal world he sits on the bench all year. And does a borderline starting caliber QB even WANT to sign up to be the backup for Jalen Hurts (for example)?

And actually, history is littered with examples of a star player getting injured and it paving the way for unbelievable success. 
Matt Cassell getting injured and having to rely on late round pick Tom Brady. 
David Robinson getting injured leading to the #1 overall pick and getting Tim Duncan

Now, it's different in baseball, because we're talking about a group of players, but let's play this forward with the 2027 Twins starters

Barring a trade these guys are locks:
Pablo Lopez
Joe Ryan
Taj Bradley

So, you have two core spots available and here are the guys you have access to:
Bailey Ober
Zebby Matthews
Connor Prielipp
Dean Kremer
Mick Abel
Mike Paredes
Kendry Rojas

Some of those are easy. I agree that Ober will likely get non-tendered. Paredes to AAA as depth. Rojas either to the bullpen or AAA as depth.

But were still left with 4 guys for 2 spots. And if you sign a mid-rotation starter, that's 4 guys for 1 spot and to be honest, I think it would be Kremer. So now you've got Zebby, Prielipp, and Abel ALL at AAA?

It sounds fun to have that much depth, but to me it doesn't make sense. It's the equivalent of spending $20M on a backup QB that you hope to never use.

So, this my long way of saying, spend money on 1B. Heck... SPLURGE on 1B. Because there's no reason to spend another dime on starting pitching depth.

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

14 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I like all of this.

Who do you like as the mid rotation starter? And how would you (knocking on wood, assume health is good) be in your opening day rotation then?

I like Bubic, I think the Twins can help him refine his sweeper so it’s not so fat in the zone

rotation

Ryan

Lopez

Bradley

Bubic

Kremer

AAA

Abel

Matthews

Rojas

Prielipp

Paredes

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Whammy said:

So now you've got Zebby, Prielipp, and Abel ALL at AAA?

Yup!

[Whammy]

That seems very shortsighted and an inefficient deployment of resources

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Yup!

What a waste. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

30 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I like Bubic, I think the Twins can help him refine his sweeper so it’s not so fat in the zone

rotation

Ryan

Lopez

Bradley

Bubic

Kremer

AAA

Abel

Matthews

Rojas

Prielipp

Paredes

 

That AAA starting pitching lineup is ridiculous.  No way that happens.   My guess is we Non Tender or trade 1-2 pitchers.   Ober may get you a low end prospect.  Kremer could get you more than you traded for him if he can have 2-3 more starts.    

[Whammy]

23 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

It all comes down to wins, if a player is not going to help us in being a winning team find ones who will.  Which is why I really hope Zoll is gone in the next two weeks, I don't think he is capable of this evaluation.

At the beginning of the season I had a strong belief that this season was going to be Zoll's only shot, unless the team strongly overperformed. There were times this season when that looked possible, but with where we are at this point, it looks unlikely.

I believed Zoll was on borrowed time not because he's done a poor job, which is subjective and different people will have different opinions, but because I just don't expect Tom Pohlad to operate that way. He doesn't seem to be the type of person that will let someone grab hold of the most important job in the organization by default, which is how Zoll got the job. 

Tom strikes me as the type of guy who would hire a Dave Dombrowski-type. Knowledge. Experience. Those are the qualities that I suspect Tom values.

Tom had to scramble this offseason as he took charge and Falvey departed. It made sense to maintain course with Zoll. But I just don't see that continuing, short of a miracle last 2.5 weeks. 

[HarmonK03]

21 minutes ago, Whammy said:

At the beginning of the season I had a strong belief that this season was going to be Zoll's only shot, unless the team strongly overperformed. There were times this season when that looked possible, but with where we are at this point, it looks unlikely.

I believed Zoll was on borrowed time not because he's done a poor job, which is subjective and different people will have different opinions, but because I just don't expect Tom Pohlad to operate that way. He doesn't seem to be the type of person that will let someone grab hold of the most important job in the organization by default, which is how Zoll got the job. 

Tom strikes me as the type of guy who would hire a Dave Dombrowski-type. Knowledge. Experience. Those are the qualities that I suspect Tom values.

Tom had to scramble this offseason as he took charge and Falvey departed. It made sense to maintain course with Zoll. But I just don't see that continuing, short of a miracle last 2.5 weeks. 

I agree that Zoll was really the only option with the timing of Falvey's departure.  But he has had a major say in this team's construction for the last 5 years.  He has had a chance and we need to move on soon.  

[HarmonK03]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I like Bubic, I think the Twins can help him refine his sweeper so it’s not so fat in the zone

rotation

Ryan

Lopez

Bradley

Bubic

Kremer

AAA

Abel

Matthews

Rojas

Prielipp

Paredes

 

Kremer has not outpitch anyone enough to earn a spot for next year.  Either non tender him or put him in the bullpen.

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I like Bubic, I think the Twins can help him refine his sweeper so it’s not so fat in the zone

rotation

Ryan

Lopez

Bradley

Bubic

Kremer

AAA

Abel

Matthews

Rojas

Prielipp

Paredes

 

I wanted to add, I really like the Bubic idea. 

[djvang]

Look where that pitch is. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

5 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

That AAA starting pitching lineup is ridiculous.  No way that happens.   My guess is we Non Tender or trade 1-2 pitchers.   Ober may get you a low end prospect.  Kremer could get you more than you traded for him if he can have 2-3 more starts.    

If you can trade Ober, great! I gotta think his Arb salary will be higher than what he signs for in free agency

Im starting Kremer because he’s a decent back of the rotation guy and out of options. The other 5 have options remaining, and there’s not a lot in double A pushing for ML roster positions. Paredes is a huge drop off, and it’s threadbare behind him

[HarmonK03]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

If you can trade Ober, great! I gotta think his Arb salary will be higher than what he signs for in free agency

Im starting Kremer because he’s a decent back of the rotation guy and out of options. The other 5 have options remaining, and there’s not a lot in double A pushing for ML roster positions. Paredes is a huge drop off, and it’s threadbare behind him

Kremer is just another league average at best veteran who will block a spot for younger guys who have earned a shot to be in the rotation.  We need to get off this treadmill at some point.   If you want to keep him for depth, put him the bullpen as the long guy, that is better use of resources.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, djvang said:

Look where that pitch is. 

These are his hero.

https://www.mlb.com/news/players-who-hit-pitches-that-bounced-in-mlb

[darin617]

Second base is the real infield wildcard they still have. I would expect to see Kulpepper move there after Marek Houston is ready.

I honestly don't have any problem just leaving Kody Clemens there.

[RpR]

1B for next season

Maybe they can  trade Lewis or Rodriquez for France.

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

On 9/9/2026 at 11:59 PM, Richie the Rally Goat said:

rotation

Ryan

Lopez

Bradley

Bubic

Kremer

AAA

Abel

Matthews

Rojas

Prielipp

Paredes

Interesting list, but if they are all healthy, I expect Abel, Mathews, and Prielipp in the starting rotation, and even Rojas at some point. I still don't see a scenario where we keep Joe Ryan next season, assuming there really will be a next season. Feeling very pessimistic lately. 

[Brandon]

I would give Lewis another shot at 1B.  Not because he is so deserving of it but because he does have potential and we have a Mendez and Gonzales in AAA and Clemens can take over if needed too. And the sleeper option is Wallner moving to 1B for another shot if Lewis gets injured or slumps again.

[HarmonK03]

10 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I would give Lewis another shot at 1B.  Not because he is so deserving of it but because he does have potential and we have a Mendez and Gonzales in AAA and Clemens can take over if needed too. And the sleeper option is Wallner moving to 1B for another shot if Lewis gets injured or slumps again.

I don't see any way that Wallner is on the 40 man next year.  The organization has moved on from him, which is probably best for both sides.