Berardino: For Twins' Terry Ryan, the July Nightmare Scenario is Repeating

[East Coast Twin]

Interesting article about Terry Ryan's past history with deadline trade, especially last year's trade of Francisco Liriano.

 

Terry also claims the Scott Erickson trade to Baltimore was his best ever. Why? Because he had to shed payroll and found someone willing to take Erickson.

 

For Twins' Terry Ryan, the July nightmare scenario is repeating - TwinCities.com

[nicksaviking]

Nice link. Nothing better than an article that starts my blood boiling on a Saturday morning.

 

If this wasn't Berardino I'd think it was made up or a mis-quote. Our GM actually is most proud of the move that only helped shed payroll. Wow.

 

This gives little hope that the Twins will eat any of Morneau's contract in exchange for a better prospect.

 

Additionally, there is no rule that Liriano had to be traded right at the deadline, there were plenty of us saying last year that he should be moved ASAP before he had his blowup moment. Others were saying his value wouldn't have changed much, Ryan clearly believed it did.

[old nurse]

Nice link. Nothing better than an article that starts my blood boiling on a Saturday morning.

 

If this wasn't Berardino I'd think it was made up or a mis-quote. Our GM actually is most proud of the move that only helped shed payroll. Wow.

 

This gives little hope that the Twins will eat any of Morneau's contract in exchange for a better prospect.

 

Additionally, there is no rule that Liriano had to be traded right at the deadline, there were plenty of us saying last year that he should be moved ASAP before he had his blowup moment. Others were saying his value wouldn't have changed much, Ryan clearly believed it did.

 

Context would be a wonderful thing here. Erickson was to be a free agent that winter, and pitching poorly. That the Twins were shedding payroll might also have been known.The comment would make more sense as to why he was proud of the trade if there was information like "we had no offers for him, little interest" etc. He could be proud he got something with promise for maybe a lot of work on his part.

[jokin]

Context would be a wonderful thing here. Erickson was to be a free agent that winter, and pitching poorly. That the Twins were shedding payroll might also have been known.The comment would make more sense as to why he was proud of the trade if there was information like "we had no offers for him, little interest" etc. He could be proud he got something with promise for maybe a lot of work on his part.

 

In 1995 he traded 4 Twins pitchers, Aguilera, Erickson, Tapani and Guthrie for:

 

Rodriguez (5.20 ERA as a Twin)

Klingenbeck (8.30 ERA as a Twin- and a guy who thought air traffic controllers had a cushy job flying around in helicopters all day)

Coom-dog (or Barney Rubble, as Kirby called him. Twins OPS+ of 88)

 

Not an inspiring list to hang your hat on for all your hard work, I'd say.

[big dog]

Context would be a wonderful thing here. Erickson was to be a free agent that winter, and pitching poorly. That the Twins were shedding payroll might also have been known.The comment would make more sense as to why he was proud of the trade if there was information like "we had no offers for him, little interest" etc. He could be proud he got something with promise for maybe a lot of work on his part.

 

Another significant problem was that Erickson was really complaining. Decent track record (high ceiling, high variability), but pitching poorly, paid well, and carping. I remember at the time thinking he had to go just to help the rest of the team concentrate on baseball.

 

Still, to claim that's your best trade? It's kind of like saying you had that used car that had been on the lot for years, people thought you would have to junk it, but you persuaded someone to give you $500 instead. I suppose you could say it was personally satisfying, but I don't really see how it helped the team other than addition by subtraction.

 

That was a ridiculously discouraging set of trades. Aggie made 30 appearances with Boston and was 20/21 in save opportunities- of course, people thought Frankie Rodriguez was actually a real pitcher. Oops. Tapani still had some gas in the tank, too.

[Willihammer]

Ironically the whole reason Erickson was complaining was because the FO was pinching pennies.

[big dog]

Ironically the whole reason Erickson was complaining was because the FO was pinching pennies.

 

That's basically what I remember, although I think the gist of it was that he thought they ought to be spending as much as the Yankees/Dodgers/etc- his scale did seem a little off. Going to the WS as a rookie can skew expectations, I guess.

[Thrylos]

Well, bottom line of this article is that TR cannot make a decent deadline trade; but to be fair I'd put his Reed for Lawton and his Steward for Kielty trades up there. These 2 helped the Twins, but not his other deadline trades... Letting Thome go to just go, was pathetic too.

[Mike Sixel]

I think being most proud of shedding payroll says it all. Makes me sad, really. If just once he had tried to play for the present, they might have another World Series. But I do not think it is in him. You all keep saying, just wait, things are different now. But so far, three years in, it is mor of the same.

[Mike Sixel]

I would be most proud of Kielty for Stewart also, the fact he isn't? Wow.

[jorgenswest]

In 1995 he traded 4 Twins pitchers, Aguilera, Erickson, Tapani and Guthrie for:

 

Rodriguez (5.20 ERA as a Twin)

Klingenbeck (8.30 ERA as a Twin- and a guy who thought air traffic controllers had a cushy job flying around in helicopters all day)

Coom-dog (or Barney Rubble, as Kirby called him. Twins OPS+ of 88)

 

Not an inspiring list to hang your hat on for all your hard work, I'd say.

 

In the Aguilera trade they received one of the better starting pitching prospects in Frankie Rodriguez. He was BBAs #36 prospect and had been listed as high as 9 in an earlier season. Aguilera was a rental and the Twins resigned him as a free agent the following winter.

 

Getting a top near major league ready starting pitching prospect for Perkins is what everyone is seeking. Those prospects don't always work out.

[Winston Smith]

This quote was left out:

"We're into making money and the more payroll I can cut the happier the Pohlads are".

[jokin]

Another significant problem was that Erickson was really complaining. Decent track record (high ceiling, high variability), but pitching poorly, paid well, and carping. I remember at the time thinking he had to go just to help the rest of the team concentrate on baseball.

 

Still, to claim that's your best trade? It's kind of like saying you had that used car that had been on the lot for years, people thought you would have to junk it, but you persuaded someone to give you $500 instead. I suppose you could say it was personally satisfying, but I don't really see how it helped the team other than addition by subtraction.

 

That was a ridiculously discouraging set of trades. Aggie made 30 appearances with Boston and was 20/21 in save opportunities- of course, people thought Frankie Rodriguez was actually a real pitcher. Oops. Tapani still had some gas in the tank, too.

 

Erickson was yet another example of trading a player at the worst possible time. Scott had a complete reversal of fortune that year for the Orioles, who bought Erickson at the absolute low-point of his Twins career (5.95 ERA/81 ERA+) to an amazing resurgence that same year for the Birds ( 16 starts/3.89 ERA/123 ERA+). And he gave them 4 very solid workhorse years after that, averaging around 230 IP/yr.

 

For that, TR got 77 innings and an 8.30 ERA from Scott Klingenbeck.

 

Oh, and for all that "hard work" and self-satisfied, self-back-slapping, Ryan saved less than half of Erickson's 1995 salary- a princely sum of $931,250.

[PseudoSABR]

While there's plenty to be cynical of, I found this quote illuminating and reassuring:

"We're not into respectability," Ryan said July 13. "We're into winning ... and getting into postseason."

[jokin]

In the Aguilera trade they received one of the better starting pitching prospects in Frankie Rodriguez. He was BBAs #36 prospect and had been listed as high as 9 in an earlier season. Aguilera was a rental and the Twins resigned him as a free agent the following winter.

 

Getting a top near major league ready starting pitching prospect for Perkins is what everyone is seeking. Those prospects don't always work out.

 

That would qualify in my book for the understatement of the day.

 

Rodriguez was a ML failure before he joined the Twins, when he was a Twin and after he was a Twin. In 7 ML years, he cracked below the 5.00 ERA line just once (4.63).

 

The author of the piece got it right, Rodriguez was extremely over-hyped, Ryan bought into that hype without kicking the tires a little bit more. As you stated, he was a BA top prospect, whose ranking was continually falling as he persistently failed to meet those lofty expectations with Boston. His suspect minor league peripherals and smallish physical stature just didn't make this a good bet.

 

Since you mentioned Perkins, his 3 most recent appearances hasn't helped his trade value any. I hope the Twins aren't tempted to panic by Perk's temporarily diminished value by another Frankie Rodriguez type, oh-so-tantalyzingly dangled in front of them.

[Rosterman]

The bigger question is what will the player cost in the near future, and where do they fit in erms of the organization...now.

 

Justin Morneau...will cost money to retain, can be repalced by cheaper parts...but if you have the money, why not spend.

 

Jamey Carroll, Josh Roeincke, Mike Pelfry...if you can get an unproven yet promising low-level prospect in a position of need, do it.

 

Josh Willingham.....think if you just wish to shed salary. of course, who is playing the outfield...Herrmann, Parmelee...or do you advance Buxton.

 

Correia.....if you can shed his salary, do it. Really, you can repalce him with henriks for all I care.

 

Seems your best bet might be getting a worthwhile advanced prospect for Duening. Bring up Aaron Thompson in his place.

 

What is sad is that you look at the Twins 40-man roster AND Rochester roster, and you don't really see much worth in players that if you put them on a chart, won't be a Twin in 2014 or even 2015 (Parmelee, Plouffe)

[DaveW]

There is a big difference between Aggie and Perkins. Aggie was a pending free agent (as was Erickson) it sucks we didn't get some big haul back, but neither guy was some huge trade target for anyone at the time.

 

Ditto with Liriano. It's hard to get on Ryan too much about July deals, more often then not under Ryan the Twins are not in sell mode in late July.

[jokin]

Another significant problem was that Erickson was really complaining. Decent track record (high ceiling, high variability), but pitching poorly, paid well, and carping. I remember at the time thinking he had to go just to help the rest of the team concentrate on baseball.

 

Still, to claim that's your best trade? It's kind of like saying you had that used car that had been on the lot for years, people thought you would have to junk it, but you persuaded someone to give you $500 instead. I suppose you could say it was personally satisfying, but I don't really see how it helped the team other than addition by subtraction.

 

That was a ridiculously discouraging set of trades. Aggie made 30 appearances with Boston and was 20/21 in save opportunities- of course, people thought Frankie Rodriguez was actually a real pitcher. Oops. Tapani still had some gas in the tank, too.

 

Just for my own masochistic fun, I looked up Mark Guthrie's post-Twins career. He pitched 8.5 more years and was anything from serviceably competent- to very effective- as a lefty RP over that span. The Twins saved about $400,000 for moving him in '95.

[jokin]

The bigger question is what will the player cost in the near future, and where do they fit in erms of the organization...now.

 

Justin Morneau...will cost money to retain, can be repalced by cheaper parts...but if you have the money, why not spend.

 

Jamey Carroll, Josh Roeincke, Mike Pelfry...if you can get an unproven yet promising low-level prospect in a position of need, do it.

 

Josh Willingham.....think if you just wish to shed salary. of course, who is playing the outfield...Herrmann, Parmelee...1)or do you advance Buxton?

 

2) Correia.....if you can shed his salary, do it. Really, you can repalce him with henriks for all I care.

 

3) Seems your best bet might be getting a worthwhile advanced prospect for Duening. Bring up Aaron Thompson in his place.

 

What is sad is that you look at the Twins 40-man roster AND Rochester roster, and you don't really see much worth in players that if you put them on a chart, won't be a Twin in 2014 or even 2015 (Parmelee, Plouffe)

 

1) Yes! on Buxton

2) Yes! on Correia- Albers, Blackburn, Hendriks

3) Yes! on Duensing, add Swarzak (both are arb eligible)- Thielbar's emergence as a lefty makes Duens superfluous (his lefty split isn't good this year)-with P. Hernandez available when he comes off the DL, besides Aaron Thompson, this would also potentially open up a spot for Tonkin. I'd also like to find out if Ibarra is for real or just a flash in the pan.

[big dog]

Just for my own masochistic fun, I looked up Mark Guthrie's post-Twins career. He pitched 8.5 more years and was anything from serviceably competent- to very effective- as a lefty RP over that span. The Twins saved about $400,000 for moving him in '95.

 

Those were dark days, no question about it. I was stunned when Guthrie was more or less thrown in with Tapani and sent to the Dodgers for practically nothing. Losing both in the same trade felt like just firing the pitching staff and completely giving up.

 

When he first came up as a starter, I thought Guthrie was going to be a very good pitcher- I loved his stuff. He never became what I hoped for, but he was definitely a valuable major league pitcher, before and after the trade.

[LastOnePicked]

While there's plenty to be cynical of, I found this quote illuminating and reassuring:

 

I wish I felt the same way. Ryan says this an awful lot, but seems entirely incapable of making the changes to the organization that might make this happen. I'll be stunned if the Twins reach the postseason again under his second GM tenure, and this "July nightmare" scenario is one of the many reasons.

[DaveW]

What are the odds we can trade Willingham? would he make it far enough in waivers for a team "in the hunt" like the Yankees or someone to put a claim on him? Or would teams like the Astros and other bottom feeders put a claim in to block everyone?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Letting Thome go to just go, was pathetic too.

 

Really? I thought it was a decent thing for Ryan to do. Let an aging slugger and general all-around good guy go back to a team he wants to play for that had an outside shot at the playoffs.

 

Sometimes, life it about more than just squeezing the world for all it will give.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Since you mentioned Perkins, his 3 most recent appearances hasn't helped his trade value any. I hope the Twins aren't tempted to panic by Perk's temporarily diminished value by another Frankie Rodriguez type, oh-so-tantalyzingly dangled in front of them.

 

I think it's safe to say that Ryan has learned a couple of things since the Rodriguez trade that occurred nearly two decades ago.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I wish I felt the same way. Ryan says this an awful lot, but seems entirely incapable of making the changes to the organization that might make this happen. I'll be stunned if the Twins reach the postseason again under his second GM tenure, and this "July nightmare" scenario is one of the many reasons.

 

"Stunned"? They have a future HoFer on the roster, play in an incredibly weak division (that is only going to get weaker as Detroit's high dollar players age), and have the best farm system in baseball.

 

Frankly, I'd be stunned if they didn't see the postseason at least once in the next 5-6 years.

[The Wise One]

In 1995 he traded 4 Twins pitchers, Aguilera, Erickson, Tapani and Guthrie for:

 

Rodriguez (5.20 ERA as a Twin)

Klingenbeck (8.30 ERA as a Twin- and a guy who thought air traffic controllers had a cushy job flying around in helicopters all day)

Coom-dog (or Barney Rubble, as Kirby called him. Twins OPS+ of 88)

 

Not an inspiring list to hang your hat on for all your hard work, I'd say.

 

Frankie Rodriguez was rated at 39 best baseball prospect at that time. The Red Sox also sent JJ Johnson who was a top 10 prospect in their system at one time. Hansell and Parra were both in the 10 ten prospects for the Dodgers. Bartee who was received as TPTBNL in the Erickson trade was rated as the 8th best prospect in the Oriole at that time. Would the lesson from those trades be then don't trade your veterans for highly ranked prospects?

[Benchwarmerjim]

remember, the 1995 season was shortened because the 1994 strike lingered into the next season . The Twins were 30-56 and 30 games behind 1st place by August 1, headed for 88 losses in only 144 games played. Trading off veterans (even to save money with a payroll of roughly $25 mil) was the thing to do that year.

[DaveW]

Trading Jim Thome was done as a favor to Thome, and frankly the Twins had no reason to be giving at bats to him at that point.

[big dog]

Frankie Rodriguez was rated at 39 best baseball prospect at that time. The Red Sox also sent JJ Johnson who was a top 10 prospect in their system at one time. Hansell and Parra were both in the 10 ten prospects for the Dodgers. Bartee who was received as TPTBNL in the Erickson trade was rated as the 8th best prospect in the Oriole at that time. Would the lesson from those trades be then don't trade your veterans for highly ranked prospects?

 

I'm certainly not opposed to trading veterans for highly ranked prospects. But being in a team's top 10 doesn't necessarily make you a good prospect- think about who was in the Twins' top 10 a few years ago. Matt Moses...Adam Johnson...

 

The reporter asked Ryan for a retrospective look at his best trades. In retrospect, we got nothing. They may have seemed like a good bet at the time, but they certainly didn't work out. Not one. When we traded Aguilera the second time, we got Lohse. That's a vastly better trade than any of these (even if I do risk hurting Coomer's feelings).

 

Saving the Pohlads money has never been a high priority of mine. I don't blame them for wanting more, but I really don't see cutting payroll as a benefit to the team itself unless the money is spent to improve somewhere else on the field. And it didn't keep Carl from offering to contract the team a few years later.

[Kwak]

Erickson was yet another example of trading a player at the worst possible time. Scott had a complete reversal of fortune that year for the Orioles, who bought Erickson at the absolute low-point of his Twins career (5.95 ERA/81 ERA+) to an amazing resurgence that same year for the Birds ( 16 starts/3.89 ERA/123 ERA+). And he gave them 4 very solid workhorse years after that, averaging around 230 IP/yr.

 

For that, TR got 77 innings and an 8.30 ERA from Scott Klingenbeck.

 

Oh, and for all that "hard work" and self-satisfied, self-back-slapping, Ryan saved less than half of Erickson's 1995 salary- a princely sum of $931,250.

 

Maybe Ryan considers this his best trade because Pohlad praised and rewarded him? Words like: "Ryan 'knows' how to be a GM", or "Ryan's the guy". Ryan dumped salary and likely didn't complain a bit--just kept his mouth shut and did his assignments. Perhaps that's why he was brought back too? It appears to me that slashing payroll was his #1 job from when he came back. Winning? Since there is no schedule, any claim is spurious--just say "we do things 'the right way' here".