Royce Lewis Is Heating Up at the Perfect Time for the Twins

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Royce Lewis has long been one of the more fascinating (and frustrating) players not just on the Twins’ roster, but in all of Major League Baseball. When he’s right, Lewis looks like an All-Star-caliber player. The power is obvious, the athleticism is obvious, and there are stretches where he looks capable of taking over games in a way very few players across the entire league can. The problem has been finding that version of Lewis consistently enough. 

That inconsistency has been on full display again this season, but perhaps the most encouraging development for the Twins is that Lewis appears to be trending in the right direction at exactly the right time. On the season as a whole, Lewis is hitting .239 with a .313 on-base percentage and a .739 OPS. Those are fine numbers on their own, but they don’t exactly jump off the page. More importantly, they fail to capture just how dramatically his season has changed over the past few weeks.

For much of the first half, Lewis was struggling. Prior to the All-Star break, he hit just .219 with an on-base percentage below .300 and an OPS below .700. His 94 wRC+ further underscored those struggles, putting him below league average offensively. Eventually, things deteriorated to the point where the Twins optioned Lewis to Triple-A. That obviously wasn’t what the team had hoped to see, but the demotion may have ultimately served as something of a reset. And since the All-Star break in particular, the difference has been striking.

Across 22 games, Lewis is hitting .293 with a .359 on-base percentage and an .859 OPS. He has recorded 10 extra-base hits and five stolen bases during that span, showcasing the well-rounded skill set that has always made him such an intriguing player. His 136 wRC+ since the All-Star break may be the most telling number of all. Lewis hasn’t simply been hitting for a decent average during this stretch. He has been well above league average offensively, and he’s been impacting the game in multiple ways.

That matters because the version of Lewis the Twins need down the stretch isn’t necessarily the player who hits 30-plus home runs or produces at an MVP level for an extended period. They simply need the player who can consistently put pressure on opposing teams. When Lewis is seeing the ball well, his power changes the way pitchers have to attack him, and his speed gives him another way to create offense once he reaches base. That combination is what gives him such a high ceiling. It’s also why his recent surge is particularly meaningful for a Twins team that remains firmly within striking distance of the postseason.

Despite coming off of a disappointing series in Milwaukee, Minnesota came into the week just four games back in the American League Central and 1.5 games behind the final American League Wild Card spot. There’s obviously plenty of work left to do, and the Twins have little margin for error. But they’re close enough that a strong final month-and-a-half could completely change the outlook of their season. And if that happens, Lewis is going to have to be part of it.

The Twins’ offense, especially without Byron Buxton, has been needing some players to step up. Lewis provides a different dimension when he’s playing at his best. There is a ceiling to this lineup that simply isn’t there when he is struggling to make consistent contact or get on base. That’s what makes his current stretch so encouraging.

It would be misguided to assume that Lewis is suddenly going to maintain an .850 OPS for the remainder of the season. His track record suggests there will be some ups and downs along the way, and another cold stretch would hardly be surprising. The goal should be consistency, not perfection. If Lewis can settle somewhere around a high-.700s to low-.800s OPS over the remainder of the regular season, that would be a meaningful contribution to a Twins lineup trying to fight its way into October. And if he can do more than that, Minnesota could have something even more valuable.

His streakiness can be a gift and a curse. Right now, though, it's working in the Twins’ favor. Lewis is playing his best baseball of the season while Minnesota is trying to make up ground in a crowded American League playoff race. That doesn’t guarantee anything, but it gives the Twins something they desperately need: another potentially dynamic bat playing at a high level.

There is still a long way to go. The Twins will need better pitching, more consistent production throughout the lineup, a healthier roster, and plenty of other things to break their way if they are going to make a legitimate push for October. But Lewis doesn’t need to carry the entire team; he needs to continue being the player he has been over these last few weeks.

If he can do that, the Twins suddenly have a much more dangerous lineup than they did earlier in the season, especially if Buxton returns in the coming days. And perhaps most importantly, they have a player who is starting to look like the version of Royce Lewis everyone knew was still somewhere in there. For a Twins team still fighting for its season, the timing couldn’t be much better.

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[weitz41]

Hopefully this hot streak lasts until the end of October. 😉 

[thelanges5]

Royce has been looking good as of late. Great to see!

Team needs Larnach, Jeffers, and Buck to start pitching in here if they’re to have any chance. 

[Nick Nelson]

What I struggle with is many of his plate appearances continuing to be so egregiously bad. Still seems like a lot of guesswork up there even when he's swinging well. Lewis has a 1.025 OPS in his last 12 games but a 15-to-1 K/BB ratio.

As Sam notes in the article, the Twins don't need Lewis to necessarily keep up at this rate, but they can't have him go back in the tank. That kind of plate discipline lends itself to extended slumps.

[Linus]

Too much hyperbole in describing Royce’s abilities. He has legit power and he is running better which is good to see. He’s always been streaky so I am more than willing to wait until the end of the season and see how he ends up. 

[nicksaviking]

12 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

What I struggle with is many of his plate appearances continuing to be so egregiously bad. Still seems like a lot of guesswork up there even when he's swinging well. Lewis has a 1.025 OPS in his last 12 games but a 15-to-1 K/BB ratio.

As Sam notes in the article, the Twins don't need Lewis to necessarily keep up at this rate, but they can't have him go back in the tank. That kind of plate discipline lends itself to extended slumps.

Royce seems to go in the tank when the team as a whole goes in the tank, and he lights up the box score when the team is playing well. One could argue if there is a correlation, but history suggests that if he goes in the tank again, that means the team has already folded up shop for the year and it won't matter.

[Road trip]

The power is obvious, yes.  Due to multiple injuries the athleticism is largely a thing of the past, unfortunately.  Average speed, average arm, range rated as downright poor at Baseball Savant, although that may be due to learning new positions.  He's unfortunately pretty much a 1-tool player now, although if you are going to have a tool the power is a good one to have.

I'm rooting for him, and his bat is badly needed, but I'll be stunned if he ever becomes a dominant player or "star".  Solid everyday player seems likely to be his career path... and that too has value.

[HarmonK03]

28 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

What I struggle with is many of his plate appearances continuing to be so egregiously bad. Still seems like a lot of guesswork up there even when he's swinging well. Lewis has a 1.025 OPS in his last 12 games but a 15-to-1 K/BB ratio.

As Sam notes in the article, the Twins don't need Lewis to necessarily keep up at this rate, but they can't have him go back in the tank. That kind of plate discipline lends itself to extended slumps.

His plate discipline has looked better since coming back.  June and July was just over 2 to 1 K/BB.  The last 4 games he has struggled, of course one was against the Mis who makes many struggle.  I was encouraged last night, his first two at bats did not look good, but his last two, he looked like he was tracking the ball better and taking better swings.  It seemed like he was making some in game adjustments which he hasn't always done.

[mikelink45]

If I remember correctly, he doesn't do slumps so I guess he will maintain this pace.  

I feel like this is a companion piece to the Ryan article.  Ryan great first half, bad second, Royce bad first half, great second half,  

And then there is Wallner who fails two seasons in a row in the first half a season, goes to AAA and goes crazy, but we won't bring him up this time. 

[PuckettPond]

I guess the move to 1st base was what he needed. Will he also try his hand @ 2nd base next year? Playing like he was a former 1st overall draft pick. We don't need more cowbell we need more Lewis.

[HarmonK03]

I am not sure if anyone gets as much scrutiny from at bat to at bat as Royce.  I get that he has struggled and made comments that I wish he would have kept to himself.  And I am still a believer in him, and as the article states he is one of the few players on this team that can take a game over by himself.  I would hope we would want somebody like that on our team.  If he can put some consistency together, he will be a contributor and maybe more on a winning team.

But it feels almost like people are waiting for him to fail.  On the game thread on Sunday, one at bat, he actually had timed up a couple of fastballs from Mis, so Mis threw his first slider and it was a filthy pitch to strike him out.  I am not sure many hitters could have laid off that pitch.  The comments that Mis broke him or that he was back to his old habits were not reasonable in my opinion.  Even last night his first two at bat's he didn't look good, and the comments came again the Mis has broken him.  The last two at bats he looked better..  

I know everyone has their opinion and it is not wrong.  But I would urge to give him some credit. he has been one of our best hitters the last two months and has had a key at bat in many of our recent wins.

[bean5302]

Nothing to do with first vs. second half. Lewis came up and was immediately effective after his recall on 6/6.

6/6-7/12 = .266/.328/.500 OPS .828 wRC+ 129, 8.8% BB, 23.4% K
7/17-8/10 = .293/.359/.500 OPS .859 wRC+ 136, 8.7% BB, 21.7% K

June = .279/.330/.512 OPS .842 wRC+ 132. 7.4% BB, 22.3% K, .311 BABIP
July = .217/.313/.410 OPS .743 wRC+ 99, 12.5% BB, 20.8% K, .246 BABIP
August = .405/.436/.676 OPS 1.112 wRC+ 213, 2.6% BB, 28.2% K, .542 BABIP

He's been pretty consistently hitting balls well and producing.

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

...But it feels almost like people are waiting for him to fail...

100%

[HarmonK03]

21 minutes ago, PuckettPond said:

I guess the move to 1st base was what he needed. Will he also try his hand @ 2nd base next year? Playing like he was a former 1st overall draft pick. We don't need more cowbell we need more Lewis.

He needs to be given one position and right now it should be 1B or else move him back to third.  He is not a utility player.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Throughout his career at the MLB level Lewis has just shown flashes but then has effectively be a subpar hitter the majority of the rest of the time.  His April and May were atrocious.  In 11 games in May he had a -7 OPS+.  I don't think I have ever seen a negative number before.  He had lost all confidence and approach at the plate.   He was sent down and I think most felt this was likely the end of the career.  

He started off a little slow in AAA then he seemed to have accepted his situation and for the first time in a few years started to change his approach at the plate.  He tried to adjust his mechanics last year then said he reverted back and complained about it stating its too hard to change during the year.  However he did start to change.  1st being more aggressive early in the count.  When getting to a deeper count and in general he has started to drive the outside pitch away.   Early in the year and last year,  pitchers were almost exclusively pitching him away outside the zone.  All Royce was doing was striking out or creating weak contact trying to pull it.  Now he has been more aggressive early in counts but he has done something strategically different.  He 1. Is not swinging at as many balls outside the zone forcing pitchers to come middle and in more.  2.  When it is outside he is going away and driving the ball.  Home Runs, doubles ect.   He then started drilling the inside pitches, that when the few mistakes occurred earlier in the season he was whiffing on as well.  He hit really well in AAA came back to the big leagues and seems to keep improving as time has gone on.   

He has completely transformed during the season,  and its all because of Royce.   His confidence is back as well.   His bat can be one of the few difference makers currently in this lineup.   

[LA Vikes Fan]

31 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

If I remember correctly, he doesn't do slumps so I guess he will maintain this pace.  

I feel like this is a companion piece to the Ryan article.  Ryan great first half, bad second, Royce bad first half, great second half,  

And then there is Wallner who fails two seasons in a row in the first half a season, goes to AAA and goes crazy, but we won't bring him up this time. 

Can't bring Wallner up because he can't play in the field and we actually have a competent DH. I like the guy and hope he gets a chance but I think it will have to be with another organization.