How the Tarik Skubal Trade Impacts Joe Ryan’s Potential Market This Winter

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Detroit Tigers may have helped shape the Minnesota Twins' offseason plans without even picking up the phone. Saturday night's blockbuster sent Tarik Skubal to the Los Angeles Dodgers, ending one of the biggest trade sagas of the summer. While the Twins were never expected to be involved, the deal established an important benchmark for another American League ace: Joe Ryan.

Minnesota isn't expected to move Ryan before Monday's trade deadline, nor should it. The Twins have spent the past week reinforcing their roster by adding two relievers (Tommy Nance, A.J. Minter) and a back-end starter (Dean Kremer). Those moves signal a front office focused on making the postseason, not taking a step backward. Trading a two-time All-Star who anchors the rotation would undermine everything they have done to improve the club.

Ryan's recent performance only strengthens the argument for waiting. After another outstanding first half, Ryan has struggled in his first two starts after the All-Star break. The Twins also pushed back one of those outings multiple times because of arm fatigue. 

He also has a well-documented history of posting weaker numbers after the break. In the first half, Ryan has pitched like one of baseball's elite starters, posting a 3.17 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and allowing opponents just a .632 OPS. After the All-Star break, those numbers have slipped considerably, with a 4.93 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and a .776 OPS allowed. It's easy to understand why rival clubs would try to discount his value if he were made available today.

That doesn't mean his long-term value has disappeared. If anything, the Skubal trade offers a glimpse into what the Twins could reasonably expect this winter, when Ryan has had time to finish the season healthy, reset over the offseason, and allow interested clubs to evaluate his complete body of work instead of a stretch of second-half struggles.

The Dodgers sent Detroit outfielder Zyhir Hope (MLB Pipeline's No. 25 prospect), right-hander River Ryan (No. 68), and right-hander Brady Smith, the organization's No. 17 prospect before the trade. While that package may have felt lighter than expected for one of baseball's best pitchers, it also reflected today's market for frontline starters on expiring contracts.

Teams have become increasingly hesitant to surrender overwhelming prospect hauls, even for elite talent. But Skubal's return still featured multiple premium prospects, and it provides a useful starting point for evaluating pitchers with similar value.

Ryan's value could still change significantly over the final two months of the season. He'll have an opportunity to show that his recent struggles are merely a temporary setback rather than a larger concern. Unlike Skubal, who will make only a handful of starts for the Dodgers before reaching free agency, Ryan could enter the offseason with his value trending back toward its peak. 

Minnesota could also follow the blueprint that clubs like the Brewers have used in recent years by dealing a frontline starter during the winter, when more teams have the financial flexibility and prospect capital to engage. One potential complication is the looming threat of a player lockout, which could freeze transactions and create a shortened offseason, leaving less time for a blockbuster deal to develop.

Minnesota has consistently viewed Ryan as a foundational piece of its rotation, and nothing about the organization's recent actions suggests that opinion has changed. A healthy Ryan gives the Twins a far better chance to contend. This winter, however, the conversation could look very different.

With a full offseason for clubs to assess their rotations, greater financial flexibility across the league, and a healthier version of Ryan entering another year of control, the Twins would be negotiating from a position of strength rather than urgency. The Skubal trade may ultimately serve less as a missed opportunity and more as an early indicator of the type of return Minnesota could pursue if it ever decides the timing is right.

For now, the Twins' priority is chasing a playoff berth with Ryan leading their rotation. If trade discussions ever become serious, this offseason, not the next 48 hours, appears far more likely to be when his market reaches its peak.

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Did the Skubal trade establish a realistic benchmark for Ryan, or would Minnesota need an even bigger return to justify dealing a two-time All-Star?

 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Why are these two players related in any way? 

[Andy MacPhail]

There is a big difference between deadline & offseason trades. Also, from an All-Star to CY winner. Besides there are very few teams that can match up well to LAD's promising young MLB-ready SPs that the Twins'll need to get in return. I agree that the MLB negotiations will affect trades, when there is uncertainty.

[DataNerd]

The only reason that we would trade Ryan in the offseason would be the same reason that the Brewers traded Peralta; some team decided to massively overpay for him.

[bean5302]

I have no idea how Skubal's trade impacts Joe Ryan's trade value. Skubal's arbitration ruling at the beginning of this year will undoubtedly have a major impact on the CBA, and therefore, Joe Ryan's trade value.

If the CBA were to continue as is, the Skubal ruling probably puts Joe Ryan into a $20MM/yr arbitration value for next year. Obviously, the CBA is going to change, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the arbitration rules being graded in a way that continues to make Joe Ryan a $15-20MM ruling for next year.

[PuckettPond]

Ryan needs to be traded for pitching prospects. Time to move forward with younger players. Remember last year's trades brought us great young players plus this year's draft picks which look to be one of the better drafts in Twins history. Watch, wait & see.

[LA Vikes Fan]

37 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I have no idea how Skubal's trade impacts Joe Ryan's trade value. Skubal's arbitration ruling at the beginning of this year will undoubtedly have a major impact on the CBA, and therefore, Joe Ryan's trade value.

If the CBA were to continue as is, the Skubal ruling probably puts Joe Ryan into a $20MM/yr arbitration value for next year. Obviously, the CBA is going to change, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the arbitration rules being graded in a way that continues to make Joe Ryan a $15-20MM ruling for next year.

That sounds about right for an arbitration result, and about right for his value if not even a little light. He's probably a $25m a year guy for 4-5 years on a long term contract. He's not a $30m a year guy because of his history of second half injuries/swoons and he's really a #2 starter, not a #1 IMHO. He's already going to be 31 next June so he's not a guy any team can afford to give a 6-7 year deal other than the Dodgers or the Yankees. 

I think the likely trade return is basically Skubal light. Instead of 2 top 100 prospects, he probably brings one top 100 prospect with a likely MLB trajectory so Hope or River Ryan, not both, plus a competent MLB bullpen arm or decent prospect (think a Minter or Nance type, or a Gallagher if it's a prospect), plus the high upside lottery ticket. I think that's probably what he's worth this offseason assuming there's a new CBA at some reasonable point.  

I say we offer him 4 years, $100M staring in 2027 to buy out his last arb year, with a willingness to go 5 years at the same level or maybe a little higher. Remember that a $25m pitcher in 5 years is equivalent to a $20m pitcher today with inflation and the way baseball salaries keep rising. If that's not enough, trade him for the kind of return I outlined. If we can't get that, get his usual great first half in 2027 and then at the 2027 deadline choose between the available return or keep him and give him a a QO in 2028 and collect the draft choice. 

 

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

That sounds about right for an arbitration result, and about right for his value if not even a little light. He's probably a $25m a year guy for 4-5 years on a long term contract. He's not a $30m a year guy because of his history of second half injuries/swoons and he's really a #2 starter, not a #1 IMHO. He's already going to be 31 next June so he's not a guy any team can afford to give a 6-7 year deal other than the Dodgers or the Yankees. 

I think the likely trade return is basically Skubal light. Instead of 2 top 100 prospects, he probably brings one top 100 prospect with a likely MLB trajectory so Hope or River Ryan, not both, plus a competent MLB bullpen arm or decent prospect (think a Minter or Nance type, or a Gallagher if it's a prospect), plus the high upside lottery ticket. I think that's probably what he's worth this offseason assuming there's a new CBA at some reasonable point.  

I say we offer him 4 years, $100M staring in 2027 to buy out his last arb year, with a willingness to go 5 years at the same level or maybe a little higher. Remember that a $25m pitcher in 5 years is equivalent to a $20m pitcher today with inflation and the way baseball salaries keep rising. If that's not enough, trade him for the kind of return I outlined. If we can't get that, get his usual great first half in 2027 and then at the 2027 deadline choose between the available return or keep him and give him a a QO in 2028 and collect the draft choice. 

 

Joe Ryan probably drops in at $25MM assuming 8MM per year. Given arbitration is light on the pay, I think $20MM is probably ball-parkish. He's consistently been a 3 WAR pitcher, and it certainly looks like he'll be right at that this year.

The problem is he's not worth any big trade value if he's making $20MM and he's got $25MM of value production, is he?

$25MM value, $20MM salary. $5MM trade value. You're talking like a #10-15 org prospect. 

[tony&rodney]

We get to find out this winter. I'm guessing that Tarik Skubal had a resume that would have no resemblance to what Joe Ryan puts together. The figure could be around $15M, give or take two. 

The demand for Ryan will largely depend on how Ryan closes out this season. Thus we are ahead of this question concerning value.

[Supfin99]

I guess it would be hard for me to disagree with this article more. Ryan should have absolutely been traded at deadline. Let’s start with Ryan’s well documented history now of being terrible or injured or both in 2nd half of seasons. What exactly r Twins going to miss this year?  2nd because of the lockout there is a strong chance we most Ryan for nothing in a year. Even a partial lockout could eliminate a trade deadline during season. Also when new CBA is done owners r going to have to give on certain things to get a cap. FA compensation will almost assuredly be 1 of them. Who is going to trade for Ryan in Nov when they have no idea if there will be a season next year n if Ryan will even play for that team?  I’d put chances at more that 50% that Ryan leaves for ZERO compensation at end of lockout. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Supfin99 said:

I guess it would be hard for me to disagree with this article more. Ryan should have absolutely been traded at deadline. Let’s start with Ryan’s well documented history now of being terrible or injured or both in 2nd half of seasons. What exactly r Twins going to miss this year?  2nd because of the lockout there is a strong chance we most Ryan for nothing in a year. Even a partial lockout could eliminate a trade deadline during season. Also when new CBA is done owners r going to have to give on certain things to get a cap. FA compensation will almost assuredly be 1 of them. Who is going to trade for Ryan in Nov when they have no idea if there will be a season next year n if Ryan will even play for that team?  I’d put chances at more that 50% that Ryan leaves for ZERO compensation at end of lockout. 

The lockout? Here is a way to think about that issue. Are there people who want to go on a trip to Yellowstone Park? Yes, there are a ton of people who make plans. Yellowstone Park is high on the list for spectacular natural disasters, from fires, to earthquakes. We all know that. Still people make the trip. Could a short lockout occur or even worse? Yes, but MLB teams are not shutting down their businesses because of the threat. Teams will have meetings, discussions, and make plans for next year. If a lockout happens, there will be a pause in activity. 

Joe Ryan has quite a bit of value. How much will be determined by how he finishes the year. Clearly the Twins were not selling last winter or at the recent trade deadline. Some of us may have been confused by the Twins pulling back from a supposed deal with the Red Sox last July and a further flummoxed by holding Ryan Jeffers and Joe Ryan now. The delay will naturally reduce the value that Joe Ryan has going into the winter, but he still will have decent value. The comparisons to Tarik Skubal never made any sense in my mind. Skubal had won two Cy Young Awards, Ryan was down the list. I'm not very worried about Joe Ryan. The Twins have a need to solve their outfield defense .... still.

[TopGunn#22]

Interesting article.  I think we will revisit this topic more than a couple times during the coming off season.  I think the expected compensation for Ryan with a 4-5 year extension is certainly in the ballpark.  I also agree that the possible return on a trade is well thought out.

Which is ultimately disappointing.

It is certainly easy to 2nd guess, but the time to have traded Ryan was last winter and when you look at the proposed compensation for a trade this off season it pales in comparison to the Red Sox "Tolle and Arias" trade.  Heck, just drop Arias altogether and just make it a Tolle for Ryan trade.  

The Twins were not expected to contend in any way in 2026, but here we are 3 games behind the division leading White Sox and only 1.5 games out of the final Wild Card chasing the Texas Rangers.  This is classic Monday Morning QB'ing, but I was pushing strongly for a Ryan trade last winter.  And if we HAD made that trade we might even be in a better position today if all we'd gotten was Tolle.

Tolle:  7-6 3.20 ERA  1.10 WHIP  143 K's in 123 IP.  23 years old. (Left Handed SP)                                          Ryan:  6-8  3.65 ERA 1.14 WHIP 138 K's in 126 IP. (Soon to be making $20-$25 million per year at age 31.)

We blew it, plain and simple.  Stack everything up and disregard the age and cost in the future.  The Twins FO blew it.  I am very skeptical of Ryan signing an extension, just as I'm 100% sure Jeffers won't either.  Ryan should have been traded last winter, and Jeffers should have been traded to the Yankees. Both the Twins and Yankees blew that one.  The Yankees are still playing .136 hitting Wells at Catcher.  They blew it worse than the Twins.   

[Linus]

There is no question Ryan will be substantially less valuable after this season simply because his arbitration number will be substantial.  In other words much less excess value in the contract. But the Twins FO obviously knew this so it’s not like they got fooled. 

[TNtwins85]

19 hours ago, DataNerd said:

The only reason that we would trade Ryan in the offseason would be the same reason that the Brewers traded Peralta; some team decided to massively overpay for him.

Joe Ryan is not getting traded. The only way Tom Pohlad allows that to happen is this. A massive overpay. A full season nets you 2 top 100’s and probably a lottery ticket or two as well. Doesn’t matter what his arbitration number is. It’s still a bargain unless Joe Ryan somehow commands a Skubal arbitration number which won’t happen. If none of these things happen which I figure they won’t you roll into the season. Look at the Jeffers situation. This is how it’s handled. If they’re competitive still in July they keep him. If they’re not they trade him for a slightly less package. This is the only part of the scenario resembling Skubal. They get 1 top 100 and another organizations top 10-15. If they’re competitive they keep him and offer the QO which may still be in place next offseason but who knows. That is the plan. It has almost nothing to do with Skubal this year. Also, the Twins are not signing a 30 year old SP to any long term deals. If that happens then you should be outraged because that’s bad value and it won’t be for $20-$25M.

[weitz41]

I guess I'm going to go against the crowd here. I don't think they're going to trade or should trade Ryan this off season. Nor do I think the Skubal trade makes a big difference in what Ryan may or not bring back in a trade. Yes, they definitely missed out on some high-end prospects by not trading him. Same for Jeffers or even Larnach.

My reasoning why is:

Neither the players nor the owners are going to want to give up much of their 2027 monies...A late start sure, half a season...5% chance. There will be changes, not a complete wrecking ball to what the last CBA is/was.

By May of 2027 a starting staff of Ryan, Pablo, Bradley, Prielipp and Kremer is a powerful augment to keep the band together. Abel, Matthews, Rojas, Festa(hopefully) and Parades all waiting for their shot. 

The entire bull pen could be back minus Minter and Rogers. If they keep Banda that's 1 BP spot to fill.

The entire offense will be back minus Jeffers and Bell. Jenkins, Emma, possibly Mendez and GG (he's been playing 1B lately) should be on the 26 man or taking and Uber back and forth from St Paul all season.

With no REAL money spent to this point.

That's 3 26-man roster spots to fill with two prospects who may get them before the end of this season and Tom saying they expects payroll to increase for 2027. That could just be arbitration raises...or on free agents. Now throw in that the QO is part of the new CBA. (50/50 chance of that) After 2027 season you QO Lopez and Ryan. That would be 5 picks in the top 75 in the 2028 draft?

One last thing. We're in the AL central not the East or NL.