How the Tarik Skubal Trade Impacts Joe Ryan’s Potential Market This Winter

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Detroit Tigers may have helped shape the Minnesota Twins' offseason plans without even picking up the phone. Saturday night's blockbuster sent Tarik Skubal to the Los Angeles Dodgers, ending one of the biggest trade sagas of the summer. While the Twins were never expected to be involved, the deal established an important benchmark for another American League ace: Joe Ryan.

Minnesota isn't expected to move Ryan before Monday's trade deadline, nor should it. The Twins have spent the past week reinforcing their roster by adding two relievers (Tommy Nance, A.J. Minter) and a back-end starter (Dean Kremer). Those moves signal a front office focused on making the postseason, not taking a step backward. Trading a two-time All-Star who anchors the rotation would undermine everything they have done to improve the club.

Ryan's recent performance only strengthens the argument for waiting. After another outstanding first half, Ryan has struggled in his first two starts after the All-Star break. The Twins also pushed back one of those outings multiple times because of arm fatigue. 

He also has a well-documented history of posting weaker numbers after the break. In the first half, Ryan has pitched like one of baseball's elite starters, posting a 3.17 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and allowing opponents just a .632 OPS. After the All-Star break, those numbers have slipped considerably, with a 4.93 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and a .776 OPS allowed. It's easy to understand why rival clubs would try to discount his value if he were made available today.

That doesn't mean his long-term value has disappeared. If anything, the Skubal trade offers a glimpse into what the Twins could reasonably expect this winter, when Ryan has had time to finish the season healthy, reset over the offseason, and allow interested clubs to evaluate his complete body of work instead of a stretch of second-half struggles.

The Dodgers sent Detroit outfielder Zyhir Hope (MLB Pipeline's No. 25 prospect), right-hander River Ryan (No. 68), and right-hander Brady Smith, the organization's No. 17 prospect before the trade. While that package may have felt lighter than expected for one of baseball's best pitchers, it also reflected today's market for frontline starters on expiring contracts.

Teams have become increasingly hesitant to surrender overwhelming prospect hauls, even for elite talent. But Skubal's return still featured multiple premium prospects, and it provides a useful starting point for evaluating pitchers with similar value.

Ryan's value could still change significantly over the final two months of the season. He'll have an opportunity to show that his recent struggles are merely a temporary setback rather than a larger concern. Unlike Skubal, who will make only a handful of starts for the Dodgers before reaching free agency, Ryan could enter the offseason with his value trending back toward its peak. 

Minnesota could also follow the blueprint that clubs like the Brewers have used in recent years by dealing a frontline starter during the winter, when more teams have the financial flexibility and prospect capital to engage. One potential complication is the looming threat of a player lockout, which could freeze transactions and create a shortened offseason, leaving less time for a blockbuster deal to develop.

Minnesota has consistently viewed Ryan as a foundational piece of its rotation, and nothing about the organization's recent actions suggests that opinion has changed. A healthy Ryan gives the Twins a far better chance to contend. This winter, however, the conversation could look very different.

With a full offseason for clubs to assess their rotations, greater financial flexibility across the league, and a healthier version of Ryan entering another year of control, the Twins would be negotiating from a position of strength rather than urgency. The Skubal trade may ultimately serve less as a missed opportunity and more as an early indicator of the type of return Minnesota could pursue if it ever decides the timing is right.

For now, the Twins' priority is chasing a playoff berth with Ryan leading their rotation. If trade discussions ever become serious, this offseason, not the next 48 hours, appears far more likely to be when his market reaches its peak.

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Did the Skubal trade establish a realistic benchmark for Ryan, or would Minnesota need an even bigger return to justify dealing a two-time All-Star?

 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Why are these two players related in any way? 

[Andy MacPhail]

There is a big difference between deadline & offseason trades. Also, from an All-Star to CY winner. Besides there are very few teams that can match up well to LAD's promising young MLB-ready SPs that the Twins'll need to get in return. I agree that the MLB negotiations will affect trades, when there is uncertainty.

[DataNerd]

The only reason that we would trade Ryan in the offseason would be the same reason that the Brewers traded Peralta; some team decided to massively overpay for him.

[bean5302]

I have no idea how Skubal's trade impacts Joe Ryan's trade value. Skubal's arbitration ruling at the beginning of this year will undoubtedly have a major impact on the CBA, and therefore, Joe Ryan's trade value.

If the CBA were to continue as is, the Skubal ruling probably puts Joe Ryan into a $20MM/yr arbitration value for next year. Obviously, the CBA is going to change, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the arbitration rules being graded in a way that continues to make Joe Ryan a $15-20MM ruling for next year.

[PuckettPond]

Ryan needs to be traded for pitching prospects. Time to move forward with younger players. Remember last year's trades brought us great young players plus this year's draft picks which look to be one of the better drafts in Twins history. Watch, wait & see.

[LA Vikes Fan]

37 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I have no idea how Skubal's trade impacts Joe Ryan's trade value. Skubal's arbitration ruling at the beginning of this year will undoubtedly have a major impact on the CBA, and therefore, Joe Ryan's trade value.

If the CBA were to continue as is, the Skubal ruling probably puts Joe Ryan into a $20MM/yr arbitration value for next year. Obviously, the CBA is going to change, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the arbitration rules being graded in a way that continues to make Joe Ryan a $15-20MM ruling for next year.

That sounds about right for an arbitration result, and about right for his value if not even a little light. He's probably a $25m a year guy for 4-5 years on a long term contract. He's not a $30m a year guy because of his history of second half injuries/swoons and he's really a #2 starter, not a #1 IMHO. He's already going to be 31 next June so he's not a guy any team can afford to give a 6-7 year deal other than the Dodgers or the Yankees. 

I think the likely trade return is basically Skubal light. Instead of 2 top 100 prospects, he probably brings one top 100 prospect with a likely MLB trajectory so Hope or River Ryan, not both, plus a competent MLB bullpen arm or decent prospect (think a Minter or Nance type, or a Gallagher if it's a prospect), plus the high upside lottery ticket. I think that's probably what he's worth this offseason assuming there's a new CBA at some reasonable point.  

I say we offer him 4 years, $100M staring in 2027 to buy out his last arb year, with a willingness to go 5 years at the same level or maybe a little higher. Remember that a $25m pitcher in 5 years is equivalent to a $20m pitcher today with inflation and the way baseball salaries keep rising. If that's not enough, trade him for the kind of return I outlined. If we can't get that, get his usual great first half in 2027 and then at the 2027 deadline choose between the available return or keep him and give him a a QO in 2028 and collect the draft choice.