These Three Minnesota Twins Starting Pitchers Could Dominate Hitters With Baseball’s Most Predictable Pitch

[Cody Schoenmann]

Since Pete Maki took over as the Minnesota Twins’ pitching coach in late June 2022, the club has possessed one of the more unique pitching collectives in baseball, particularly when assessing the stark difference in how team decision-makers have constructed the starting rotation compared to the bullpen. Since July 1, 2022, Minnesota’s starting rotation has the fifth-lowest average four-seam fastball velocity (vFA) in MLB, at 93.1 MPH. In contrast, the club’s bullpen had the tenth-highest vFA in the league, at 94.8 MPH.

 

Unsurprisingly, the driving force behind the stark contrast was Jhoan Durán, who served as the club’s closer during that three-season stretch. Once Durán and his 100.6 MPH fastball departed the organization on July 30, 2025, the bullpen’s vFA plummeted to the third-lowest in baseball, sitting at 92.5 MPH. Interestingly, the starting rotation’s vFA ascended to 17th in the league, with a 93.8 vFA. The last time a Derek Falvey-constructed starting rotation sat that high was in 2018, when the Kyle Gibson, José Berríos, and Jake Odorizzi-led collective ended its season with the 16th-highest vFA in baseball.

 

Given the lack of high-velocity reliever additions this offseason, Minnesota’s bullpen will likely continue residing toward the bottom of the league in vFA this season. Whether intentional or not, 2026 could be the first season this decade where the Twins’ starting rotation averages a higher four-seam velocity than the bullpen, marking a meaningful shift in roster-building approach. To preface, velocity isn’t the sole factor in what makes a fastball serviceable. Bailey Ober has pitched three above-average seasons despite his fastball barely topping 90 MPH. Shape, induced vertical break (IVB), extension, arm slot, and other factors all play critical roles. Still, high velocity is the greatest indicator of four-seam success, lending merit to players’, coaches', and analysts' well-noted fixation on it.

 

Beyond parting ways with Durán and other hard-throwing relievers in Louis Varland, Griffin Jax, and Brock Stewart, Minnesota prioritized acquiring young, hard-throwing starting pitchers at last season’s trade deadline, most notably in Taj Bradley and Mick Abel. Last season, the two young arms’ four-seamers both sat at 96.2 MPH, which tied for the highest in the club’s rotation. Again, velocity doesn’t dictate how effective a starter’s four-seam is. Still, Bradley and Abel’s fastballs are grading out as elite, evidenced by the charts below:

 

As shown above, is sporting a 61-grade four-seamer over ten innings pitched this spring. Bradley is sporting a similarly impressive 69-grade four-seamer over nine innings pitched. Using the 20-80 scouting scale, both four-seams grade out as true plus pitches, with Bradley’s teetering toward plus plus (or elite). Bradley and Abel’s fastballs aren’t relying solely on high velocity. Instead, the two pitches are also sporting plus IVB and arm-side movement, generating a high number of whiffs up in the zone. Abel is at risk of beginning his 2026 campaign at Triple-A St. Paul. Still, if Bradley and Abel can sustain their plus fastball grades early into the season, Minnesota could have three starting pitchers with near-elite fastballs, joining Joe Ryan.

 

Ryan’s fastball is considerably slower than Bradley’s and Abel’s, sitting at 93.7 MPH over 171 innings pitched last season. Still, his four-seamer was the tenth most effective in baseball in 2025, netting a 17 run value. Long gone are the days of the Twins' starting rotation filled with pitchers like Carlos Silva, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, and the like, sporting low-grade fastballs that fail to top 90 MPH. Instead, the club has undergone a four-seam renaissance, fielding Ryan, Bradley, and Abel, with Zebby Matthews also fitting a similar mold. Will it lead to the rotation being an above-average unit in 2026? That is to be determined. Yet, the collective has real upside, and could blossom into the club’s best rotation since the 2023 unit that led the organization to its first playoff win in 19 years.

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[jmlease1]

Quote

Since Pete Maki took over as the Minnesota Twins’ pitching coach in late June 2022, the club has possessed one of the more unique pitching collectives in baseball, particularly when assessing the stark difference in how team decision-makers have constructed the starting rotation compared to the bullpen.

I beg of you, do not modify "unique" (or "historic"). These are binary terms: something is either unique or it isn't. My biggest grammatical pet peeve.

Otherwise, great article. I still think Abel & Bradley are more likely for the rotation than the bullpen, but I could see Zebby landing there, and would not be sad to see his 4-seamer working in the back of the bullpen...

[thelanges5]

It will be interesting to see if Zebby can hit 100 in the bullpen. 

[LambchoP]

Abel has been lights out this Spring. If he can continue pitching like this into the regular season, we just may have another Joe Ryan on our hands:)

[Patzky]

Nice effort by Taj today. The starting staff will have hiccups but won't be the reason for a miserable W-L record.

[Permanent Twins Fan]

9 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

It will be interesting to see if Zebby can hit 100 in the bullpen. 

Knowing the Twins history of injuries, he'll probably blow out his arm attempting it. 

[IndianaTwin]

12 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I beg of you, do not modify "unique" (or "historic"). These are binary terms: something is either unique or it isn't. My biggest grammatical pet peeve.

Otherwise, great article. I still think Abel & Bradley are more likely for the rotation than the bullpen, but I could see Zebby landing there, and would not be sad to see his 4-seamer working in the back of the bullpen...

You probably don’t like needless redundancies then, do you? 😀

[Richie the Rally Goat]

20 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I beg of you, do not modify "unique" (or "historic"). These are binary terms: something is either unique or it isn't. My biggest grammatical pet peeve.

Otherwise, great article. I still think Abel & Bradley are more likely for the rotation than the bullpen, but I could see Zebby landing there, and would not be sad to see his 4-seamer working in the back of the bullpen...

I hadn’t thought of it that way before, but makes perfect sense

[Doctor Wu]

20 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I still think Abel & Bradley are more likely for the rotation than the bullpen

Agree totally on that. We need BOTH of those pitchers in the rotation. 

[IndianaTwin]

21 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I beg of you, do not modify "unique" (or "historic"). These are binary terms: something is either unique or it isn't. My biggest grammatical pet peeve.

Otherwise, great article. I still think Abel & Bradley are more likely for the rotation than the bullpen, but I could see Zebby landing there, and would not be sad to see his 4-seamer working in the back of the bullpen...

While we're at it, near the top of my grammatical pet peeves is people saying, "An historic." It's not a silent "h" sound, like "honor." It's "A historic..."

I usually hear that snafu from people trying to sound sophisticated. They don't.  

 

(To the point, I do like what Abel and Bradley have been showing in the rotation.)

[Linus]

15 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

While we're at it, near the top of my grammatical pet peeves is people saying, "An historic." It's not a silent "h" sound, like "honor." It's "A historic..."

I usually hear that snafu from people trying to sound sophisticated. They don't.  

 

(To the point, I do like what Abel and Bradley have been showing in the rotation.)

I try not to get too worked up over grammatical errors especially on a site like this but since you opened the door….my pet peeve is the overuse of trendy jargon. I predict a summer of references to “post- hype” prospects. Another example being “lean into” or my favorite “intentional or intent”. As in the Twins made an intentional decision to run more. You mean there is an unintentional decision?  Terms like this cast a bad light on the author in my opinion. 

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

I try not to get too worked up over grammatical errors especially on a site like this but since you opened the door….my pet peeve is the overuse of trendy jargon. I predict a summer of references to “post- hype” prospects. Another example being “lean into” or my favorite “intentional or intent”. As in the Twins made an intentional decision to run more. You mean there is an unintentional decision?  Terms like this cast a bad light on the author in my opinion. 

Then there's my favorite grammar joke...

A visitor walking through the Harvard campus stops to ask one of the locals, "Excuse me. Could you please tell me where the library is at?" 

Local, pompously: "I'm sorry, but at Harvard University, we don't end sentences with a preposition." 

Visitor, after pausing a moment: "Okay. Can you please tell me where the library is at, ... jerk?"

[Cody Schoenmann]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

I try not to get too worked up over grammatical errors especially on a site like this but since you opened the door….my pet peeve is the overuse of trendy jargon. I predict a summer of references to “post- hype” prospects. Another example being “lean into” or my favorite “intentional or intent”. As in the Twins made an intentional decision to run more. You mean there is an unintentional decision?  Terms like this cast a bad light on the author in my opinion. 

i'm happy my comment sections are a safe space for grammar pedants

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, Linus said:

I try not to get too worked up over grammatical errors especially on a site like this but since you opened the door….my pet peeve is the overuse of trendy jargon. I predict a summer of references to “post- hype” prospects. Another example being “lean into” or my favorite “intentional or intent”. As in the Twins made an intentional decision to run more. You mean there is an unintentional decision?  Terms like this cast a bad light on the author in my opinion. 

Well, at the end of the day, is trendy speak that big of a deal? 😉

[Linus]

22 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Well, at the end of the day, is trendy speak that big of a deal? 😉

That will certainly vary from person to person. I think language is interesting and important. Good writing will be above it. For me it’s about in the same category as outfielders throwing to the wrong base 😀

[JD-TWINS]

8 minutes ago, Linus said:

That will certainly vary from person to person. I think language is interesting and important. Good writing will be above it. For me it’s about in the same category as outfielders throwing to the wrong base 😀

“at the end the the day” was my trendy attempt at levity……..

[bean5302]

Scott Baker's fastball was above average in velocity for the day. In fact, most of the Twins pitchers back then were above average. 2010 median fastball velo for starter with 100+ IP was 91.4mph.

147 pitcher sample
Liriano = 94.4 (9th)
Baker = 92.3 (48th)
Duensing = 92.0 (55th)
Blackburn = 91.5 (68th)
----Median = 91.4 (74th)----
Pavano = 90.6 (93rd)
Slowey = 90.3 (100th

For interesting reference... Mets Johan Santana = 90.4 (98th)

Complaints about the old days of the Twins wasn't about fastball velocity. It was "pitch to contact" and living in the strike zone for the sake of efficiency. It was a short-sighted perspective which was best used in the 1980s and earlier when HRs weren't so prevelant and lineups had dead spots.