These Three Minnesota Twins Starting Pitchers Could Dominate Hitters With Baseball’s Most Predictable Pitch

Since Pete Maki took over as the Minnesota Twins’ pitching coach in late June 2022, the club has possessed one of the more unique pitching collectives in baseball, particularly when assessing the stark difference in how team decision-makers have constructed the starting rotation compared to the bullpen. Since July 1, 2022, Minnesota’s starting rotation has the fifth-lowest average four-seam fastball velocity (vFA) in MLB, at 93.1 MPH. In contrast, the club’s bullpen had the tenth-highest vFA in the league, at 94.8 MPH.

Unsurprisingly, the driving force behind the stark contrast was Jhoan Duran, who served as the club’s closer during that three-season stretch. Once Durán and his 100.6 MPH fastball departed the organization on July 30, 2025, the bullpen’s vFA plummeted to the third-lowest in baseball, sitting at 92.5 MPH. Interestingly, the starting rotation’s vFA ascended to 17th in the league, with a 93.8 vFA. The last time a Derek Falvey-constructed starting rotation sat that high was in 2018, when the Kyle Gibson, José Berríos, and Jake Odorizzi-led collective ended its season with the 16th-highest vFA in baseball.

Given the lack of high-velocity reliever additions this offseason, Minnesota’s bullpen will likely continue residing toward the bottom of the league in vFA this season. Whether intentional or not, 2026 could be the first season this decade where the Twins’ starting rotation averages a higher four-seam velocity than the bullpen, marking a meaningful shift in roster-building approach. To preface, velocity isn’t the sole factor in what makes a fastball serviceable. Bailey Ober has pitched three above-average seasons despite his fastball barely topping 90 MPH. Shape, induced vertical break (IVB), extension, arm slot, and other factors all play critical roles. Still, high velocity is the greatest indicator of four-seam success, lending merit to players’, coaches', and analysts' well-noted fixation on it.

Beyond parting ways with Durán and other hard-throwing relievers in Louis Varland, Griffin Jax, and Brock Stewart, Minnesota prioritized acquiring young, hard-throwing starting pitchers at last season’s trade deadline, most notably in Taj Bradley and Mick Abel. Last season, the two young arms’ four-seamers both sat at 96.2 MPH, which tied for the highest in the club’s rotation. Again, velocity doesn’t dictate how effective a starter’s four-seam is. Still, Bradley and Abel’s fastballs are grading out as elite, evidenced by the charts below:

As shown above, he is sporting a 61-grade four-seamer over ten innings pitched this spring. Bradley is sporting a similarly impressive 69-grade four-seamer over nine innings pitched. Using the 20-80 scouting scale, both four-seams grade out as true plus pitches, with Bradley’s teetering toward plus plus (or elite). Bradley and Abel’s fastballs aren’t relying solely on high velocity. Instead, the two pitches are also sporting plus IVB and arm-side movement, generating a high number of whiffs up in the zone. Abel is at risk of beginning his 2026 campaign at Triple-A St. Paul. Still, if Bradley and Abel can sustain their plus fastball grades early into the season, Minnesota could have three starting pitchers with near-elite fastballs, joining Joe Ryan.

Ryan’s fastball is considerably slower than Bradley’s and Abel’s, sitting at 93.7 MPH over 171 innings pitched last season. Still, his four-seamer was the tenth most effective in baseball in 2025, netting a 17 run value. Long gone are the days of the Twins' starting rotation filled with pitchers like Carlos Silva, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, and the like, sporting low-grade fastballs that fail to top 90 MPH. Instead, the club has undergone a four-seam renaissance, fielding Ryan, Bradley, and Abel, with Zebby Matthews also fitting a similar mold. Will it lead to the rotation being an above-average unit in 2026? That is to be determined. Yet, the collective has real upside, and could blossom into the club’s best rotation since the 2023 unit that led the organization to its first playoff win in 19 years.