Rosenthal: The Twins Are Closing the Door on Joe Ryan Trade Talks

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

To be fair,  he got ridiculed for what he received at the trade deadline deals even though the value seems to be pretty good.  I don't want him to give away Ryan.  I also don't think Ryan will lose much value between now and the trade deadline.   If he puts up a similar season to last season while maintaining his performance towards the end of the season you could still get a really good return.  The best offer may have been at the trade deadline but its hard to know what was being offered from the Red Sox.  

Falvey's house desperately needs a coat a paint, but he's put it off for 5 years. His insurance company is threatening to cancel his policy. Luckily, he stumbled across some old paint from the 80s at a garage sale for cheap and he got right to it. Somehow he gets criticised even though he painted the house! The insurance company never should have asked him to paint, but darn it, now they.... oh, they cancel his policy just like the Pohlads should have canceled his contract.

 

[LastOnePicked]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The only reason they should keep him is if they truly believe they have good odds of winning the division.

I don't believe for a second that they believe this. Not a single second. I think it's far more likely that they were afraid of ruining Tom Pohlad's grand entrance with news of trades of popular players. He practiced that "we owe the fans hope" line, thinking that simply holding on to the same roster that lost 90 games is some sort of "gift" to the few remaining fans.

It's foolish. But, hey, that's the new "Twins Way."

[chpettit19]

50 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

I don't believe for a second that they believe this. Not a single second. I think it's far more likely that they were afraid of ruining Tom Pohlad's grand entrance with news of trades of popular players. He practiced that "we owe the fans hope" line, thinking that simply holding on to the same roster that lost 90 games is some sort of "gift" to the few remaining fans.

It's foolish. But, hey, that's the new "Twins Way."

I don't think they should believe it, but I've said since the deadline that they weren't blowing it up and were trying to win and rebuild at the same time. I think it's an awful strategy, but I think they mean it when they say they think they can compete.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

4 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I would guess that Craig Leopold may have some kind of agreement to buy the team as he kind of sticks out like a sore thumb compared to the private equity groups. I don't think it makes a ton of sense for those groups to want a stake of this team past the point of flipping it for profit. Yet at the same time I don't know why local owner Craig Leopold would want to invest in this nutty situation unless there is a path for him to secure majority ownership later.

Agreed. They’ll never admit it, but that’s what makes sense to me too. The ask is too high based on today’s market, but post CBA and TV contract, it might make sense so Leipold has dibs or right of first refusal type of situation.

[Major League Ready]

12 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think they should believe it, but I've said since the deadline that they weren't blowing it up and were trying to win and rebuild at the same time. I think it's an awful strategy, but I think they mean it when they say they think they can compete.

While at the same time the new guy in charge is saying he does not believe in half-measures.  The off-season isn't over but so far, all indications are they will follow a course that exemplifies a "half-measure".

[Riverbrian]

22 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think they should believe it, but I've said since the deadline that they weren't blowing it up and were trying to win and rebuild at the same time. I think it's an awful strategy, but I think they mean it when they say they think they can compete.

Just think about this for a second. The rebuild of this roster began on July 30 2025 and it ended on July 31 2025. 

My wife can't even drive to Ashley and buy a chair for the living room in one day.  

 

 

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Just think about this for a second. The rebuild of this roster began on July 30 2025 and it ended on July 31 2025. 

My wife can't even drive to Ashley and buy a chair for the living room in one day.  

 

 

I don’t think it was ever a rebuild.

I think they believe they can restock prospects using the bullpen and find inexpensive bullpen pieces among their many pre-arb starting arms. The first half of the plan leaves them with many FV45 to FV50 players. I am not confident that they can build a bullpen from the starters beyond number 5 but I am hopeful. The Brewers and Guardians have found several bullpen arms using few resources. The Mariners traded several closers since Dipoto took very in return for prospects. One year they traded their closer at the deadline while contending. None of these teams have tried to turn it over all at once though. Falvey’s job should be connected to its success.

[Riverbrian]

On 12/31/2025 at 5:54 PM, jorgenswest said:

I don’t think it was ever a rebuild.

I think they believe they can restock prospects using the bullpen and find inexpensive bullpen pieces among their many pre-arb starting arms. The first half of the plan leaves them with many FV45 to FV50 players. I am not confident that they can build a bullpen from the starters beyond number 5 but I am hopeful. The Brewers and Guardians have found several bullpen arms using few resources. The Mariners traded several closers since Dipoto took very in return for prospects. One year they traded their closer at the deadline while contending. None of these teams have tried to turn it over all at once though. Falvey’s job should be connected to its success.

It certainly wasn't a rebuild. It may not be a retooling either. It just might be business as usual. 

In regards to the bullpen... I agree with everything you say. I'm half not worried about pen and half worried about it. 

My not worried half comes from many years of looking at the bullpens of every team. Successful bullpens contain pitchers that most haven't heard of. Closers are created by giving someone the closer role. 

My worried half comes from the size of the job to be done,  It might be without precedent. I don't recall any bullpen this blown up. 

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 12/31/2025 at 5:54 PM, jorgenswest said:

I don’t think it was ever a rebuild.

I think they believe they can restock prospects using the bullpen and find inexpensive bullpen pieces among their many pre-arb starting arms. The first half of the plan leaves them with many FV45 to FV50 players. I am not confident that they can build a bullpen from the starters beyond number 5 but I am hopeful. The Brewers and Guardians have found several bullpen arms using few resources. The Mariners traded several closers since Dipoto took very in return for prospects. One year they traded their closer at the deadline while contending. None of these teams have tried to turn it over all at once though. Falvey’s job should be connected to its success.

They also didn’t start the prospect conversion to reliever last August. They finished out the year with waiver cast offs instead of at least a couple of the Prielipp/Festa/etc in the bullpen to close out the year. If this was the plan all along, a couple months head start for two of them would have made 2026 all the more feasible when there’s 5-6 of em.

[bean5302]

On 12/30/2025 at 5:26 PM, chpettit19 said:

I don't think they should believe it, but I've said since the deadline that they weren't blowing it up and were trying to win and rebuild at the same time. I think it's an awful strategy, but I think they mean it when they say they think they can compete.

 

On 12/31/2025 at 6:11 AM, Major League Ready said:

While at the same time the new guy in charge is saying he does not believe in half-measures.  The off-season isn't over but so far, all indications are they will follow a course that exemplifies a "half-measure".

I don't know what you guys are talking about. Following the Colorado Rockies model (but you know, spending 20% less, cause the Scrooge McDuck moneybin is getting a little low...) always leads to success. I'm glad the Twins have figured it out!

[Major League Ready]

20 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

 

I don't know what you guys are talking about. Following the Colorado Rockies model (but you know, spending 20% less, cause the Scrooge McDuck moneybin is getting a little low...) always leads to success. I'm glad the Twins have figured it out!

I keep hearing the failure is a product of being cheap.  However, they have spent more than the other teams in the division and as much than most teams with similar revenue.  The conclusion that the primary problem is spending just does not track with the facts.  I see the problem as not drafting well enough and not managing their roster and assets like Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Tampa.   Those teams are all spending significantly less and getting much better results.  Does spending another $30M equate to equivalent results?

Building a winner requires periodic rebuilds.  Even with considerably more revenue, the Red Sox and cubs just went through rebuilds.  The Twins organization appears to be unwilling to do what's necessary.  They are using duct tape when they need to build a new foundation.   

Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Tampa have their ups and downs, but they do not waste their opportunities to build long-term assets by moving short-term assets.    If we look at their trade practices and results compared to other modest revenue teams or even all teams it would appear their practices are more effective.  

[TJSweens]

On 12/24/2025 at 11:15 AM, sampleSizeOfOne said:

Going for what?

(Sorry, i wasn't paying attention)

Going for being the best team in a bad division.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

They also didn’t start the prospect conversion to reliever last August. They finished out the year with waiver cast offs instead of at least a couple of the Prielipp/Festa/etc in the bullpen to close out the year. If this was the plan all along, a couple months head start for two of them would have made 2026 all the more feasible when there’s 5-6 of em.

I honestly have no idea if that would have made a difference. They could have given any of these seven time in the bullpen to end the season.

Matthews, Woods Richardson had spots in the rotation until the end.

Starting Abel and Bradley gave them the opportunity to see the most innings out of these two new acquisitions.

Festa was injured.

Prielipp was on a schedule that appeared to me to be very connected to rebuilding his arm. They didn’t deviate much from that progression.

Raya was moved to the bullpen. His last start was 6 innings on August 14. After that he made 10 relief appearances. He was still needed in the rotation. McLaughlin started at least three bullpen days in September. I am not sure if the move to the pen was about gaining bullpen experience or lessening his innings or both.

With Lopez, Ryan and Ober these seven make 10 starters with a few others that need to get starts in AAA. I think the plan was to use some of these arms to build a bullpen this year. I hope it works.

 

 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

It just might be business as usual. 

Falvey is going for his own personal Threepeat. Roll it back / do as little as possible = the offseasons after 2023, 2024, 2025. It has nothing to do with money. The guy has his dream team already.

All we can do is hope for the best. All MLB players and organizational top twenty prospects have talent. The trick is whether the players stay healthy and perform at a high level on a consistent basis. It might be discouraging to know the Twins keep with the status quo with their philosophies and practices but I'm still going to sleep like a baby and I'm still going to watch baseball. 

[Riverbrian]

In comparison with their peers (Typical spending range). They were money aggressive for the first 5 or 6 years from Cron and Schoop to Carlos Correa and Christian Vazquez. 

They hit a financial wall in 2023 and they became not aggressive going on 3 years straight now. No deals at the deadline in back to back years of contention (2023 and 2024). They have become financially passive on a grand scale and I've always assumed that is because the money is no longer there. 

There just seems to be no adaptation to the funds not being there as we go on year 3 as you mentioned.   

I don't expect them to ever spend enough money to make it work with money being the thing that plugs the holes left by the lack of development.

Once you reach the point that you have to sign Ty France for everyday playing time at a million for financial reasons.... It's over at that point... you are out of cash and you need to change course. That's out of Money with a payroll in the 150 range. That range is now 50 to 60 less and you still need a Ty France.    

They must adapt to succeeding with multiple pre-arb players like Milwaukee and Cleveland are able to do and you have to commit to multiple pre-arb players in order to do that and this would be the perfect time to start.   

Develop or Die and the development track record has been unable to develop a hitter that can survive the jump from AAA to the Majors. 

Shelton can say it's a hard jump to make... I believe that it is but Milwaukee and Cleveland are able to navigate this hard jump multiple times and stay competitive. Hard Yes... Impossible? No it's not impossible as evidenced by Cleveland and Milwaukee.  

 

  

 

[bunsen82]

4 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

They also didn’t start the prospect conversion to reliever last August. They finished out the year with waiver cast offs instead of at least a couple of the Prielipp/Festa/etc in the bullpen to close out the year. If this was the plan all along, a couple months head start for two of them would have made 2026 all the more feasible when there’s 5-6 of em.

When will people realize - losing and tanking at the end of the year was as much a goal as getting the other prospects.  Its why they needed to not get burned on the lottery which they didn't.  They will be getting a 60 level prospect which is better than anything they can get in a trade except for Ryan.   

Now they will at least put some effort into rebuilding a bullpen,  although will not feel nearly as good at this point.    Even I have been disappointed at the lack of resources put into it.  I felt you needed 2 more solid to really good reliever options.   

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I keep hearing the failure is a product of being cheap.  However, they have spent more than the other teams in the division and as much than most teams with similar revenue.  The conclusion that the primary problem is spending just does not track with the facts...

My point was the Twins seem to be following the Colorado Rockies roster model, except spending less. Spending less doesn't make bad strategies better.

I posted an image the other day which surprised me. In the past decade, no team in the bottom half of spending has won a World Series. 

Team in blue, won a World Series
Team in green, made it to the world series.
Division in blue, won a League Championship (made a WS)
Division in green made it to a division champsionship.

Teams do not have to spend $200MM to make it to the World Series. But if they can't get at least to about league average, it's not happening anymore.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

In comparison with their peers (Typical spending range). They were money aggressive for the first 5 or 6 years from Cron and Schoop to Carlos Correa and Christian Vazquez. 

They hit a financial wall in 2023 and they became not aggressive going on 3 years straight now. No deals at the deadline in back to back years of contention (2023 and 2024). They have become financially passive on a grand scale and I've always assumed that is because the money is no longer there. 

There just seems to be no adaptation to the funds not being there as we go on year 3 as you mentioned.   

I don't expect them to ever spend enough money to make it work with money being the thing that plugs the holes left by the lack of development.

Once you reach the point that you have to sign Ty France for everyday playing time at a million for financial reasons.... It's over at that point... you are out of cash and you need to change course. That's out of Money with a payroll in the 150 range. That range is now 50 to 60 less and you still need a Ty France.    

They must adapt to succeeding with multiple pre-arb players like Milwaukee and Cleveland are able to do and you have to commit to multiple pre-arb players in order to do that and this would be the perfect time to start.   

Develop or Die and the development track record has been unable to develop a hitter that can survive the jump from AAA to the Majors. 

Shelton can say it's a hard jump to make... I believe that it is but Milwaukee and Cleveland are able to navigate this hard jump multiple times and stay competitive. Hard Yes... Impossible? No it's not impossible as evidenced by Cleveland and Milwaukee.  

 

  

 

Keeping Larnach is the opposite of the Cle/TB strategy.....

[Riverbrian]

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Keeping Larnach is the opposite of the Cle/TB strategy.....

Are you sure? 

Are you saying those clubs never employed 1st or 2nd year Arb players?

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Are you sure? 

Are you saying those clubs never employed 1st or 2nd year Arb players?

 

 

I'm saying they don't do it when they have 4-6 other options that make zero money, yes. Never? I don't deal in absolutes, they aren't realistic at all. 

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Falvey is going for his own personal Threepeat. Roll it back / do as little as possible = the offseasons after 2023, 2024, 2025. It has nothing to do with money. The guy has his dream team already.

All we can do is hope for the best. All MLB players and organizational top twenty prospects have talent. The trick is whether the players stay healthy and perform at a high level on a consistent basis. It might be discouraging to know the Twins keep with the status quo with their philosophies and practices but I'm still going to sleep like a baby and I'm still going to watch baseball. 

I will watch them.  When up there I will buy tickets to see them.  I just don't think I will see much winning.  Hope I'm wrong.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

My point was the Twins seem to be following the Colorado Rockies roster model, except spending less. Spending less doesn't make bad strategies better.

I posted an image the other day which surprised me. In the past decade, no team in the bottom half of spending has won a World Series. 

Team in blue, won a World Series
Team in green, made it to the world series.
Division in blue, won a League Championship (made a WS)
Division in green made it to a division champsionship.

Teams do not have to spend $200MM to make it to the World Series. But if they can't get at least to about league average, it's not happening anymore.

No surprise.  I have posted several times that the only one team in the bottom half of revenue (2015 Royals) has won the WS in the past 20 years.  I made these posts because occasional people will use that as a valid measure of success which makes little sense given its rarity.  This is the present day reality.  The question is do we want to take our chances with the type of teams the Brewers have put together.