If Twins Must Play 2026 on a Miserly Budget, They Should Blow Up the Roster and Build a Super-Farm

[Mike Sixel]

20 minutes ago, T.O. said:

Sure, trade all the quality players for low or mid level prospects. With the Twins record at player development you'll have a team of players like Julien, Miranda, Lee, Larnach, Wallner, and Lewis. Or pitchers that can't make it a third time through the order and have to go to the bullpen. Players with promise that ultimately are average at best, mediocre most of the time. 
The only bright spot in development is Keaschall and it may be to early to tell with him.
This approach at best would yield a team barely making .500 but mostly south of that.
Something has to change in the organization.

Zero people have said this. I mean, I have no idea what you want if you think they can't develop players. Just, keep the ones they haven't developed?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 12/3/2025 at 1:02 PM, ashbury said:

It's not going to be what you think.  Front offices will gladly trade you volumes of second-tier prospects for your MLB talent, but the very top echelon prospects are simply not for sale, or you have to bowl them over with your offer. If Joe Ryan's our best bargaining chip, he (in a package) may net us one sure-fire young guy, but everything else we obtain in a fire sale will be speculative guys who we might be able to "coach up" to a high level of play but more likely will be average players if they develop at all.

"Loading up" is going to be with Roden- and SWR-level guys.  In a few seasons we'll be back to .500 at best, and then the players will start to be expensive.

Lather, rinse, repeat.   This is the MLB of today for some franchises..

While I agree, this is already a bottom 3 team (if not dead last) in baseball. If they aren’t going to spend their way to mediocrity, they’ll never ever get there with this current group.

the damage is done. 4 players have more value in trade, than in winning 55 wins or 50.

[Major League Ready]

11 hours ago, T.O. said:

Sure, trade all the quality players for low or mid level prospects. With the Twins record at player development you'll have a team of players like Julien, Miranda, Lee, Larnach, Wallner, and Lewis. Or pitchers that can't make it a third time through the order and have to go to the bullpen. Players with promise that ultimately are average at best, mediocre most of the time. 
The only bright spot in development is Keaschall and it may be to early to tell with him.
This approach at best would yield a team barely making .500 but mostly south of that.
Something has to change in the organization.

When you start with the absurd assumption of trading quality players for "low or mid-level prospects" the conclusion is most assuredly going to be equally absurd.  If you honestly believe that's what would happen, the problem is that you believe the FO is dumber than every poster on this site because not one of us would even consider what you are suggesting.   I understand your disappointment, but this is not an informed take.

[NYCTK]

16 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Dude we have already been through this on previous posts. The Mets should keep McLean in my opinion. What you state as fact is me telling you I won 6 Cy Young awards. Never/always/everyone/no one - word choice matters. My friends in MLB might tell me differently what your friends in MLB tell you.

FWIW, I will remind you of my opinion. I don't think the Twins should trade Ryan to the Mets. I can see a Lopez for Tong plus deal as the guy on Fangraphs suggested, but I didn't read that one.

I can give you an East Coast Mets fan trade in reverse though just for fun. The Twins trade Trevor Larnach, Kyle DeBarge, and Ricardo Olivar for Nolan McLean. Go to a Mets blog and you see the reverse of this quite a bit. The Mets should keep McLean.

Well, you made a declarative statement that is wrong, and I'm pointing out why it's wrong. That's all that's going here. 

No one would trade McLean for Ryan, ergo Ryan is not "way more valuable" than McLean. 

[tony&rodney]

8 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Well, you made a declarative statement that is wrong, and I'm pointing out why it's wrong. That's all that's going here. 

No one would trade McLean for Ryan, ergo Ryan is not "way more valuable" than McLean. 

Ok. I admit it. I didn't win 6 Cy Young's. There. Now it's finished. I came clean.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

While I agree, this is already a bottom 3 team (if not dead last) in baseball. If they aren’t going to spend their way to mediocrity, they’ll never ever get there with this current group.

the damage is done. 4 players have more value in trade, than in winning 55 wins or 50.

Yeah, I wish I could be more constructive.  I'm not saying not to make the trades.  I'm just setting expectations; it's not going to be the sudden influx of multiple Walker Jenkinses that some people seem to anticipate.  A franchise's fortunes tend to be cyclical; I forsee the highs for the Twins becoming less high and the lows getting ever lower.

I don't think Falvey and his FO are incompetent.  They just don't have some sort of "special sauce" relative to their peers.  I don't think ownership is especially terrible, at least in the context that like most of their peers they view it as a business and not an expensive hobby.  I just think the deck is stacked to a degree greater than 1987-1991, the era we look back at so fondly.  A team winning 55 or 50 will just serve to shrink the revenue stream further, and the lower revenue isn't going to "teach ownership a lesson" or whatever it is that gets touted.

[TopGunn#22]

This has been fleshed out on a couple other articles but the premise makes perfect sense.  What are the realistic expectations for this Twins team if they essentially keep Ryan, Buxton, Lopez and Jeffers and add around the fringes with bargain basement players (who just happen to be a little bit better than the ones they currently have?  A third place finish at best probably.  Ahead of the White Sox and one other A.L. Central team.

And what will the outlook be with this Twins team once they start playing games sometime in 2027?  Probably not good.

The idea of a total housecleaning and rebuild is starting to make more sense to me as the days go by.  

It's not that I WANT it.  it's more that I just kind of feel that's the way the wind is blowing.  Once Buxton said he'd be willing to waive his no-trade clause, that probably has to shove the front office's thinking in that direction.  There would be quite an impressive haul of near major league ready prospects if the Twins traded Buxton, Ryan, Lopez, Jeffers, Ober,  Wallner and Larnach.  Bring on the kids !!

[Major League Ready]

8 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

This has been fleshed out on a couple other articles but the premise makes perfect sense.  What are the realistic expectations for this Twins team if they essentially keep Ryan, Buxton, Lopez and Jeffers and add around the fringes with bargain basement players (who just happen to be a little bit better than the ones they currently have?  A third place finish at best probably.  Ahead of the White Sox and one other A.L. Central team.

And what will the outlook be with this Twins team once they start playing games sometime in 2027?  Probably not good.

The idea of a total housecleaning and rebuild is starting to make more sense to me as the days go by.  

It's not that I WANT it.  it's more that I just kind of feel that's the way the wind is blowing.  Once Buxton said he'd be willing to waive his no-trade clause, that probably has to shove the front office's thinking in that direction.  There would be quite an impressive haul of near major league ready prospects if the Twins traded Buxton, Ryan, Lopez, Jeffers, Ober,  Wallner and Larnach.  Bring on the kids !!

I am not sure what place they would take but it sure seems unlikely to earn a playoff spot.  This is why I have been among the biggest supporters of a rebuild.   I just can’t see us contending next year and the 27 season is quite uncertain.  Let’s talk about 2026.

Our BP is non-existent.  That would be fixable with the Dodgers budget but we have to convert a few starters.  The good news is that we have several good candidates.  The bad news is that will take the entirety of the 2026 season and will probably still be in progress in 2027.  

The OF also requires the transition of both corner OFers.  The good news is that two of our top prospects are OFers and we have a couple other possibilities in Roden/Gonzalez.  The bad news is that these top prospects still need a little Milb time.  In other good news, we have Martin and Roden who deserve a shot and this gives us maximum opportunity to fill these starting positions with very good players.  The bad news for 2026 is that this transition requires a focus on developing players and that process will take most of 2026.

Where the INF We have no 1B which could be fixed.  We have a 3B with significant potential but he is performing well below average.  We have a SS whose defense would require offensive production well above average and he is well below average.  The good news is we have a top prospect to transition.  The bad news is he is not quite ready.  The sum of these three parts tells me the best thing for this team is to focus on transitioning all of these players.  How often can a team rebuild to this degree in 1 year?

If it all came together, we would likely contend for a playoff spot in 2027 but we would lose Ryan, Lopez after 2027 and Buxton would be in his last year.   The question becomes, should we forego acquiring several players, some of which have a good chance to be impact players through 2032-33 for a reasonable shot at making the playoffs in 2027.   Keeping in mind, contention in 2027 assumes many things come together, do we want a one year shot or several years with the addition of what would be a considerable addition of talent from trading Ryan, Lopez, and perhaps Buxton.
 

[MGX]

22 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Well, you made a declarative statement that is wrong, and I'm pointing out why it's wrong. That's all that's going here. 

No one would trade McLean for Ryan, ergo Ryan is not "way more valuable" than McLean. 

McLean in in 2023 was struggling in college ball, in 2024 was ok in AA. Now he had a great 2025 which culminated in 48 IP at the MLB level. The Mets may be so high on him they won't trade him for anyone & that's fine. There is no way for you or anyone else to know if any other team would trade McLean for Ryan.

Obviously, as a fan my opinion doesn't matter, but if I were in Falvey's shoes there is no way I'd trade Ryan for McLean straight up.

[Fatbat]

It will be interesting what happens after the draft lottery. If we get a top 3 pick and the draft goes well in July, (deep college age talent) the FO may get 2-4 guys that are only 2 years away from MLB. At that point, do you sell off the current core in total or maybe 1 or 2 of them?  Lets just say Jeffers, Buck, Lopez, Ober and Ryan are all having a very nice solid season but we are scraping by at a .493 win %.  My guess is they all get traded out and the team gets a whole reset.  There will be plenty of clubs looking for a guy to add for their playoff runs. 
Now lets just say that the Twins are 10 games over .500 at the trade deadline and a nice rookie crop is contributing to what seems like a quick rebuild, will the FO buy some more immediate MLB talent or will they be content and wimper out by just missing the playoffs or lose in 5 games to the Blue Jays or Yankees? 
And then we cycle right back into the middle of the pack of almost contenders for another decade….

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, MGX said:

Obviously, as a fan my opinion doesn't matter, but if I were in Falvey's shoes there is no way I'd trade Ryan for McLean straight up.

Then you'll absolutely be disappointed with the return of any trade. McLean for Ryan would be an absolute steal. Falvey would go on a week long bender to celebrate getting 6 years of McLean for 2 years of Ryan. 

[tony&rodney]

If the Twins must play on a budget below $100M, they will need to trust a few of their prospects. The bigger move would be to acquire players, which requires some trades. An unknown is how intransigent the Twins or other front offices are on moving certain players. How highly do the Twins value good players like Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner, a prospect like Emmanuel Rodriguez, or their flock of young pitchers? The list of ideas seems nearly endless and perhaps futile to even suggest. My thoughts are that the Twins need to make an attempt to change the makeup of the roster. I don't dislike or feel particularly down on any individual player but the roster is unbalanced and needs adjustments. 

The next question is whether any team sees value in the Twins players to their benefit, which could result in transactions. A few off the cuff examples ..... Sacramento would like young pitchers and someone to play 2B/3B. Does a Lee or Lewis plus a pitcher (one of Festa, Matthews, Morris, SWR, Prielipp, Abel, Bradley), and Marek Houston return Leodalis De Vries? Would TBR or MN consider a Emmanuel Rodriguez for Tre' Morgan deal? Is Jordan Lawler available for something along the lines of Bailey Ober or Taj Bradley plus Kyle DeBarge? 

How risk adverse are the Twins and other organizations? It doesn't seem necessary right now to send any or all of Ryan, Lopez, Buxton away in trades. It does seem necessary to make some changes. The scariest part of the offseason thus far is whenever Falvey states, for the umteenth time, that he likes the Twins team and the roster is very talented and can compete with anyone. This has turned into an annual meme. There are options. I'm hopeful that mutually beneficial trades are completed that balance the Twins roster.

[bean5302]

Okay, let's look at this from a homer perspective, just because the negativity around here is a bit much even for me hahah.

C - Ryan Jeffers 2.5 WAR (free agent year performance)
1B - Trevor Larnach 2.0 WAR
2B - Luke Keaschall 3.0 WAR
SS - Kaelyn Culpepper 4.0 WAR
3B - Royce Lewis 5.0 WAR
LF - Austin Martin 2.5 WAR
CF - Byron Buxton 5.0 WAR
RF - Walker Jenkins 4.0 WAR
BC - Jackson 1.0 WAR
UO - Roden 1.0 WAR
UI - Lee 1.0 WAR
Util - Clemens 0.5 WAR

SP1 - Lopez 3.5 WAR
SP2 - Ryan 3.5 WAR
SP3 - Ober 2.5 WAR
SP4 - Matthews 2.5 WAR
SP5 - Bradley 2.5 WAR
Spot - Abel 1.0 WAR

Cl - Festa 2.0 WAR
8th - Prielipp 1.5 WAR
BP3 - SWR 1.0 WAR
BP4 - Topa 0.5 WAR
BP5 - Sands 0.5 WAR
BP6 - Funderburk 0.5 WAR
BP7 - Rojas 0.5 WAR
BP8 - Morris 0.5 WAR

That's 54 WAR = 99 Wins!!!

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Okay, let's look at this from a homer perspective, just because the negativity around here is a bit much even for me hahah.

C - Ryan Jeffers 2.5 WAR (free agent year performance)
1B - Trevor Larnach 2.0 WAR
2B - Luke Keaschall 3.0 WAR
SS - Kaelyn Culpepper 4.0 WAR
3B - Royce Lewis 5.0 WAR
LF - Austin Martin 2.5 WAR
CF - Byron Buxton 5.0 WAR
RF - Walker Jenkins 4.0 WAR
BC - Jackson 1.0 WAR
UO - Roden 1.0 WAR
UI - Lee 1.0 WAR
Util - Clemens 0.5 WAR

SP1 - Lopez 3.5 WAR
SP2 - Ryan 3.5 WAR
SP3 - Ober 2.5 WAR
SP4 - Matthews 2.5 WAR
SP5 - Bradley 2.5 WAR
Spot - Abel 1.0 WAR

Cl - Festa 2.0 WAR
8th - Prielipp 1.5 WAR
BP3 - SWR 1.0 WAR
BP4 - Topa 0.5 WAR
BP5 - Sands 0.5 WAR
BP6 - Funderburk 0.5 WAR
BP7 - Rojas 0.5 WAR
BP8 - Morris 0.5 WAR

That's 54 WAR = 99 Wins!!!

Fangraphs has always loved the Twins. When they put up their numbers, we can see what a positive view of the roster looks like. 

FWIW, you forgot Emmanuel Rodriguez at 6.0 WAR. You cut Matt Wallner?

 

[twinstalker]

They don't know how.  I should start trading stocks to make millions, too.

[LyleCole]

On 12/4/2025 at 7:03 AM, Riverbrian said:

I agree with your overall sentiment. I'm a big fan of your posts and attitude. May you live long and prosper. 

Just want to mention that rebuilds don't have to take a long time.

Where you start matters. If the Team wants to back up another 1,000 miles to make it take longer... They can... they may not have to. They can also choose to drive 40 mph instead of 80 mph.

Thinking they wouldn't have room or if they would be unwilling to make room for a healhy Eisenrich and a young Kirby Puckett on the same 1984 roster is driving 40 mph and yes... it will lengthen the rebuild. 

It's all about identifying talent right now. If they pour enough players through... they'll find talent. Find out who's Dave Meier and who is Tim Tuefel.  

They had Eisenreich on the 1982 opening day roster AND starting lineup.

But Kirby represents another aspect of the full rebuild:  it needs to extend to through the entire organization.   Look at Kirby's career.  3rd overall pick of the JANUARY Phase of the 1982 draft.  The Jan Phase meant that he got 305 plate appearances in Rookie Ball in 1982.   In 1983 he played at Visalia, A ball.  Then in 1984 he played AAA and then 121 games with the Twins.  

His OPS in AAA in 1984 was sub .700.   The Twins moved him rapidly through the system.

In a rebuild you cannot move methodically and slow.  You have to get your prospects up, especially the more advanced college drafted players.  

Another critical point I will raise is that it is almost impossible to rebuild 100% of the players needed on a MLB roster.  A team like the Twins needs to do MOST of the rebuild internally, and once that core group matures fill in the blanks with players like Al Newman, DANNNN Gladden, Jeff Reardon, Juan Berenguer, and Bert Blyleven/Roy Smalley reincarnations.   The 1991 team added Shane Mack (probably the best player on the 1991 team), Chili Davis, Brian Harper, and Jack Morris.3

But you got to get to that critical mass with the internal prospects (I include players like Tapani who were prospects acquired in trades).  The Twins CANNOT rebuild via free agency.

 

 

[LyleCole]

On 12/4/2025 at 8:12 AM, MGX said:

I don't see how we can say Eisenreich was blocking Puckett. He had a health issue that took him out of baseball for a while. He debuted in '82 with a solid showing in 111 PA's, but in '83 he only had 8 PA's & '84 36 PA's. That isn't blocking anyone.

Meanwhile, Puckett was in rookie ball in '82 & A ball in '83, he skipped a level & went to AAA in '84 & debuted the same season. If anything Puckett was fast tracked to MLB.

The idea that players are blocked is exaggerated IMO. When a player is ready & plays well enough to force a promotion they'll get there chance. 

You can't?   The point is the route the Twins chose in 1982 meant he was NOT blocking Puckett.  But what happens if the Twins decide to move Jimmy Eisenreich to AA in 1982 instead of putting him as the starting centerfielder on the major league team in 1982?  Kirby was drafted in 1982 and played Rookie ball.  Then in 1983 they move Kirby to A and Jimmy to AAA.  

Your point about "fast tracking" is just agreeing to my point.  YOu move Eisenreich to the majors after just A ball.  YOU skip AA for Kirby.  You move the prospects up fast.  They either show or they don't.  But if you move station by station, it blocks the entire rebuild because you don't get the inforamtion fast enough.

[Riverbrian]

14 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

They had Eisenreich on the 1982 opening day roster AND starting lineup.

But Kirby represents another aspect of the full rebuild:  it needs to extend to through the entire organization.   Look at Kirby's career.  3rd overall pick of the JANUARY Phase of the 1982 draft.  The Jan Phase meant that he got 305 plate appearances in Rookie Ball in 1982.   In 1983 he played at Visalia, A ball.  Then in 1984 he played AAA and then 121 games with the Twins.  

His OPS in AAA in 1984 was sub .700.   The Twins moved him rapidly through the system.

In a rebuild you cannot move methodically and slow.  You have to get your prospects up, especially the more advanced college drafted players.  

Another critical point I will raise is that it is almost impossible to rebuild 100% of the players needed on a MLB roster.  A team like the Twins needs to do MOST of the rebuild internally, and once that core group matures fill in the blanks with players like Al Newman, DANNNN Gladden, Jeff Reardon, Juan Berenguer, and Bert Blyleven/Roy Smalley reincarnations.   The 1991 team added Shane Mack (probably the best player on the 1991 team), Chili Davis, Brian Harper, and Jack Morris.3

But you got to get to that critical mass with the internal prospects (I include players like Tapani who were prospects acquired in trades).  The Twins CANNOT rebuild via free agency.

 

 

Agreed

The Twins needs to attack this with youth full speed head on. Whatever happens in 2026... Happens.

Let the success/failure ratio do it's thing. 

The players will tell you who needs to be replaced. The players will tell when and where to infuse cash and where to infuse the next wave. 

 

 

[tony&rodney]

30 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

They had Eisenreich on the 1982 opening day roster AND starting lineup.

But Kirby represents another aspect of the full rebuild:  it needs to extend to through the entire organization.   Look at Kirby's career.  3rd overall pick of the JANUARY Phase of the 1982 draft.  The Jan Phase meant that he got 305 plate appearances in Rookie Ball in 1982.   In 1983 he played at Visalia, A ball.  Then in 1984 he played AAA and then 121 games with the Twins.  

His OPS in AAA in 1984 was sub .700.   The Twins moved him rapidly through the system.

In a rebuild you cannot move methodically and slow.  You have to get your prospects up, especially the more advanced college drafted players.  

Another critical point I will raise is that it is almost impossible to rebuild 100% of the players needed on a MLB roster.  A team like the Twins needs to do MOST of the rebuild internally, and once that core group matures fill in the blanks with players like Al Newman, DANNNN Gladden, Jeff Reardon, Juan Berenguer, and Bert Blyleven/Roy Smalley reincarnations.   The 1991 team added Shane Mack (probably the best player on the 1991 team), Chili Davis, Brian Harper, and Jack Morris.3

But you got to get to that critical mass with the internal prospects (I include players like Tapani who were prospects acquired in trades).  The Twins CANNOT rebuild via free agency.

 

 

Do you think the current front office has what it takes to navigate a full rebuild?

[LyleCole]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Do you think the current front office has what it takes to navigate a full rebuild?

No.  They just seem to lack a confidence in their actual talent evaluation and I think that has limited their ability to maintain the team and rebuild it.   They would rather ride Jonah Bride or Ryan Fitzgerald than bring up any of their internal prospects.    

I think their minor league development concept has been too "station to station" and they are too risk adverse to be in charge of a full rebuild.  

So, I think the Twins will pretend again and try to split the middle.  They keep the core of Lewis-Buxton-Jeffers (trading away a AAA catcher drafted in the Rule V draft seems to indicate that they plan on keeping him) Lopez-Ryan-Ober core.  They will try their luck at finding a closer and set up relievers on the cheap.   

This team, led by its ownership, has always shot for being a "wild card" rather than a true contender.