Article: Marketable Twins (1st of two-part series)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2060-Marketable-Twins-(1st-of-two-part-series)

[howieramone1406390264]

Good article Jeremy. Better news tomorrow?

[beckmt]

You never know, but none of these 4 will bring back much value except salary relief. Pelfrey has a chance to be good the next 2 weeks and actually bring back some value. He could be of use here next year. Correria do not think will be traded, little value and decent contract.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Good article Jeremy. Better news tomorrow?

 

I hope it's better. Definitely more complicated.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

You never know, but none of these 4 will bring back much value except salary relief. Pelfrey has a chance to be good the next 2 weeks and actually bring back some value. He could be of use here next year. Correria do not think will be traded, little value and decent contract.

 

Liriano was lights-out for almost a month and the return (at the time) wasn't exciting (though it provided two more productive players than anticipated). Pelfrey could deal for two weeks and the return wouldn't be great, though I think there could be a market.

 

I don't think Correia will be traded either, but I'd take "decent" down a notch to describe his contract.

[B Richard]

Not gonna lie, I read the thread title and laughed that this could be a two-part series

[jokin]

Correia is an interesting case. He signed a 2-year/$10 million deal which fans and local media hated instantly. He then started out the season pitching much better than expected. Now he’s leveled off and isn’t doing anything to help the Twins or his trade value (though he was pretty good tonight).

 

N/M

[jokin]

Correia is an interesting case. He signed a 2-year/$10 million deal which fans and local media hated instantly. He then started out the season pitching much better than expected. Now he’s leveled off and isn’t doing anything to help the Twins or his trade value (though he was pretty good tonight).

 

Our standards for minimal expectations have dropped significantly if KC's start was "pretty good". I will grant that he was pretty good at dodging bullets last night (literally and figuratively). He had his worse stint in terms of wildness on the season- 5 BBs and only 58 strikes out of 108 pitches. His single-game ERA was 5.06 and with the 5 hits given up had a WHIP close to 2.00. The big problem is how predictably ineffective he becomes in his "big out situations." On 3-1 counts this year, Correia is giving up an unbelievable .1825 OPS with a .483 OBA. Guess what the count was on Kelly Johnson in the 6th inning?

 

Guys (like Kelly Johnson) batting 7-9 in the batting order have a BA of .320 and an .845 OPS on the season, unacceptable.

 

Though not applicable tonight, on the theme of big-out situations, with 2 outs, KC for the season is letting batters hit .342BA with a .893 OPS.

[TheLeviathan]

What's sad is that there has been a rush to forgive Ryan for KC because he hasn't been as awful as expected (deserved to a degree) but he still is basically acknowledged as worthless? Ouch, worthless even in a surprisingly positive season really illuminates why that signing got so much criticism.

 

Also, Willingham should be dealt or it dealt based on return....definitely not to free salary. That's a non-issue.

[Thrylos]

I'd throw Casey Fien's name there as well. He has been pitching over his head and will never have as much value.

As far as what the Twins can get in return for some of these guys, I'd wait to see who the MLB will suspend. If there are names of 3-4 pitchers in contending teams, Pelfrey's and Correia's value will increase. Get a couple of 1B out of the picture and Morneau will actually have some value (and he leads the team in RBIs ; hope that there is another organization out there that values RBIs... )

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Jokin - I hadn't had that line in there... but then thought he was thisclose to actually getting a win, which someone would have pointed out had I not mentioned that. After posting and looking closer at his stats, ugh. Though I think Gardy said he did "pretty darn well", which made me chuckle.

[roger]

I agree that Pelfrey should continue to get better the rest of the season as he gets further from his surgery. That would lead to the expectation that he could be the pitcher he was again in 2014, which was pretty good.

 

Unless Mr. Ryan gets something worthwhile in July, I see him standing pat until the year end. Pelfrey then becomes one of two players he could consider offerring arbitration to. If Pelfrey accepts, one year of the good Pelfrey is worth $13mm dollars, especially with where the overall budget is. If Boras gets him a multi-year deal elsewhere, the Twins get a lot more than they will later this month.

[Brandon]

As far as what the Twins can get in return for some of these guys, I'd wait to see who the MLB will suspend. If there are names of 3-4 pitchers in contending teams, Pelfrey's and Correia's value will increase. Get a couple of 1B out of the picture and Morneau will actually have some value (and he leads the team in RBIs ; hope that there is another organization out there that values RBIs... )

 

This is the wildcard to the whole trade deadline deals. NY needs a first baseman and Morneau and Moralas (Sea) are the headliners. Boston and maybe Tampa(see above quote) a 3B

 

I will say paying 2-3 million of KC contract next year for a fringe organizations top 30 prospect is no bueno. Why pay 2-3 million when you can get a FA reliever for a million or less? Also with what the Twins have in their rotation right now why would they want to trade KC or Pelfry? There isn't anyone ready to step up in their place. Albers and Hernandez and maybe Hendriks is all we got left in the cupboard until next year...oh and Swarzak. But I do agree that they do not hold much value.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

This is the wildcard to the whole trade deadline deals. NY needs a first baseman and Morneau and Moralas (Sea) are the headliners. Boston and maybe Tampa(see above quote) a 3B

 

I will say paying 2-3 million of KC contract next year for a fringe organizations top 30 prospect is no bueno. Why pay 2-3 million when you can get a FA reliever for a million or less? Also with what the Twins have in their rotation right now why would they want to trade KC or Pelfry? There isn't anyone ready to step up in their place. Albers and Hernandez and maybe Hendriks is all we got left in the cupboard until next year...oh and Swarzak. But I do agree that they do not hold much value.

 

I agree with your assessment on the pitchers, I dont think they will trade them. I got responses that they will/should trade them so that's why they're included. One hidden benefit though is the part you don't like - you give guys like Hendriks and Albers extended looks to help make a decision on next year.

[ThePuck]

What's sad is that there has been a rush to forgive Ryan for KC because he hasn't been as awful as expected (deserved to a degree) but he still is basically acknowledged as worthless? Ouch, worthless even in a surprisingly positive season really illuminates why that signing got so much criticism.

 

Also, Willingham should be dealt or it dealt based on return....definitely not to free salary. That's a non-issue.

 

He hasn't been as awful as expected, yet...but he's starting to move in that direction and his FIP right now is 4.70. He has stayed healthy and he's giving us innings, which helps I guess. Half his starts have been quality ones, though 5 of them were in April and only 4 since then. For those who put stock in Fangraphs value numbers, he's in line to be worth what his salary is...so far.

[gil4]

I think Gardy said he did "pretty darn well", which made me chuckle.

 

I would expect a manager to say that in public and something else in private. My concern would be that maybe Gardy actually meant it.

[ThePuck]

This is the wildcard to the whole trade deadline deals. NY needs a first baseman and Morneau and Moralas (Sea) are the headliners. Boston and maybe Tampa(see above quote) a 3B

 

I will say paying 2-3 million of KC contract next year for a fringe organizations top 30 prospect is no bueno. Why pay 2-3 million when you can get a FA reliever for a million or less? Also with what the Twins have in their rotation right now why would they want to trade KC or Pelfry? There isn't anyone ready to step up in their place. Albers and Hernandez and maybe Hendriks is all we got left in the cupboard until next year...oh and Swarzak. But I do agree that they do not hold much value.

 

I'm sorry, I probably misread, but did you say Tampa needs a 3B?

[Winston Smith]

Any trade that gives them salary relief has great value so we can get the Pohlad brothers off food stamps!!

[DaveW]

Willinghams 2014 salary should not be a concern for this team, with the current team as of now and arbitration etc the Twins will be heading into 2014 with about 55 million owed. That means that even with Willingham on the books the Twins have between 30 mil and 50 million they could legitimately spend in free agency/trades before next year.

 

The best bet with Willingham is to let him come back and produce, if he does then maybe you can trade him in the off-season, if not, go ahead and roll with him as a DH/LF for 2014, if someone like Buxton is ready by June then deal him for whatever you can come the trade deadline, if you are still in contention at the all star break and Willingham is preforming well then maybe you think about just holding onto him and taking the comp pick at the end of 2014?

 

Either way, no reason to sell low on him.

 

Pelfrey is a "unique" Boras client, he most likely took less money to come to Minnesota and it wouldn't shock me if he did the same again. We aren't talking about the difference between a 7 year 140 mil contract and a 5 year 90 mil contract, we are talking about maybe a mil or two less to stay in Minnesota. If he remains healthy I would offer him a 2 year 10-12 mil contract with plenty of incentives.

 

If we want to keep Pelfrey, then I would trade Correia for anything we can get, I do like Correia but we don't need a bunch of #4/#5's to compete. I would rather take some of that saved 5 million and put it towards a Hughes signing.

 

If you can get something for Carroll then do it, if not, just don't give him away for literally nothing. I think having a veteran amongst a bunch of rookies/youngsters in the INF actually is beneficial and I believe the Twins have said as much. Besides, its not like anyone is really pushing him for those at bats...

[ThePuck]

There are 45 starting pitchers in the AL that have enough innings to be considered qualified for stats. While he's started enough games, the fact that he has given us barely 5 innings an outing in his 15 starts doesn't quite put him over the edge to be considered qualified for stats. If he had just a few more innings, he'd be ranked 45th out of 46 in ERA (right below Diamond at 44). He's been bad. His FIP says not as bad as his ERA shows, though. His FIP says he's been better than Correia.

 

He is getting better though. Three of his last four outing have been quality starts.

[notoriousgod71]

Liriano was lights-out for almost a month and the return (at the time) wasn't exciting (though it provided two more productive players than anticipated). Pelfrey could deal for two weeks and the return wouldn't be great, though I think there could be a market.

 

I don't think Correia will be traded either, but I'd take "decent" down a notch to describe his contract.

 

I wouldn't consider Hernandez and Escobar productive. A 5.54 ERA and 1.69 WHIP and .596 OPS are very easily replaceable. Nick Blackburn and Matt Tolbert were better.

[nicksaviking]

Also with what the Twins have in their rotation right now why would they want to trade KC or Pelfry? There isn't anyone ready to step up in their place. Albers and Hernandez and maybe Hendriks is all we got left in the cupboard until next year...oh and Swarzak. But I do agree that they do not hold much value.

 

I'd trade either of them in a losing year to give Hendriks one last extended look. Aside from Albers and Hernandez, Worley is still at Rochester and Walters cleared waivers. Logan Darnell looks like he could get a shot and perhaps Trevor May if he continues to show improved control. The options maybe do not sound pretty, but really, are Pelfrey and Correia that much prettier?

[stringer bell]

Doumit has been my trade chip of choice. I still think the Twins should move him.

[ThePuck]

Anyway, to continue on with the conversation, I'd think Doumit would have some value. Willingham isn't performing up to snuff and is hurt. Not sure we'll be able to move him before the deadline but if we can, we should. I like the idea of letting Carroll go to a contender. We aren't playing him, so why not? I used to be on the trade Morneau bandwagon, but I think I've had my mind changed in here on that. I'd like to see us keep him if the price is right and if not.

 

Perkins. There are people who say that we shouldn't bother signing quality people now because we aren't going to be competitive until 2015, 2016 at the earliest and there's all those wasted years, but argue we should keep Perkins, who is only cheap now, but who we likely won't pay to keep when he prices himself out of town. He's only signed through 2015 with a 2016 option, so if we can get a good haul for him, why not trade him?

[beardybuddha]

I could get more for my broken PS3 and my old Xbox (original) than anything the Twins could get in return for the players above. It's a sad, sad time to be a Twins fan. At least we don't have to worry about contraction again...

[Mike Sixel]

The Mets and Twins Should Remember Joakim Soria | FanGraphs Baseball

 

trade anyone over 29 you get an offer for. And the link reminds us why Perkins should be dealt.

[jun]

Do not trade Plouffe, Perkins or any of the young boys except Parmelee.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

I could get more for my broken PS3 and my old Xbox (original) than anything the Twins could get in return for the players above. It's a sad, sad time to be a Twins fan. At least we don't have to worry about contraction again...

 

On the whole I agree--none of these guys (Morneau, Doumit, Pelfry, Correia, etc.) will give us a good MI or SP or even a top prospect. The exception is Perkins--since he is a lefty and could be brought into specific situations in 8th or 9th innings. Parmalee could also bring decent return, but I wouldn't trade him until I was sure about Sano.