These Three Twins Are Approaching Make-Or-Break Status

[tony&rodney]

Several references comparing Lewis to Buxton. How?

One could spend all day, but age 23-26 seasons for each = 3.9 WAR for RL and 9.9 WAR for BB. Buck has won a Platinum Glove Award for his work in centerfield, Lewis looks like he is learning to play a fair third base. 

There is definitely a world where Royce Lewis develops into a good baseball player in the future. One should be empathetic to his injuries and rough patch to date, but these two don't share many similarities. Both are under contract control for three more seasons and many Twins fans believe it best to continue with Royce Lewis through arbitration. The feeling is that Lewis has low value at this time, which is what folks said about Julien last year. They are not good comparisons either. I would let other teams tell me the value of Lewis and keep him if there is not a solid deal to be completed. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

None of these 3 players are make or break imo. Roden wasn't included in the Varland deal to be discarded after 40 or whatever AB's. SWR  I could see potentially being traded if we don't trade someone else, Lopez Ryan Ober. I too would like to see a switch to relief explored. Lewis isn't being dumped. I could see if a high return was offered it would be considered. But Lewis still has many chances ahead of him. I'm with others, don't like some of his ways. He cut down Kyle Schwarber in a comment this spring and that wasn't professional at all. Too much about Royce if you ask me. Frankly he's stunk for over a year now. Let your play talk.

[Major League Ready]

When I saw the title I guessed it would be Julien at the top of the list.  Gasper if he is even a consideration.  If Gasper is not even in the conversation, two of Clemens, Martin, and Larnach given all the OFers getting close to ready.  Roden has 150 ABs.  He is not even close.  Lewis will get all or at least most of next year and I don't know how SWR is even in the conversation.

[Doctor Gast]

I don't see a make-or-break on any of these players. SWR is a smart SP & is gaining experience, he'll figure out what he needs to do to stay at least at the bottom of the rotation. Rodon is on Falvey's acquisitions list, he's guaranteed continous opportunities. Lewis has gone back to his old swing so there's no problem there. Julien should have been gone last year, he's broken like Miranda. After this season Gasper is gone or at least should be. Larnach is probably traded although we won't get much for him

Falvey & Co.'s make or break  was '23/'24 offseason. Failure to see needs & trade to fill them. Failure to develop & in player evaluations. Faulty philosophies & etc. They should be gone but they have been extended & promoted. It's very difficult to truly evaluate our players through the faulty mismanagement filter. Once Falvey & Co. is gone then we can.

[Palindrome Bob]

10 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

You do an article about make or break players and pick 3 players that aren’t make or break. This year was Rodens first taste of MLB, he will get another year to show if he can adjust. SWR has been a very solid pitcher for the Twins. He is an excellent back end starter/depth starter that can come in and give you above average results. The kid just keeps trying to improve his stuff. Lewis still gets at minimum another year. 
 

Gasper Martin Julien should have been the ones you picked. 

I completely agree, on all of these points. These are not the three players I expected this article to feature, either. I was thinking Julien, Martin, and either Larnach or Wallner.
 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Palindrome Bob said:

I completely agree, on all of these points. These are not the three players I expected this article to feature, either. I was thinking Julien, Martin, and either Larnach or Wallner.
 

The hatred for Wallner on this site is truly astounding. 

[RaoulDuke]

One of the "positives" of having a developement year, like the next one will be, is you can hold on to some guys to see if they can get established/ find themselves again.  Obviously you can't do that with all of them but Royce isn't going anywhere there is too much potential upside there and Roden just got here with a promising AAA track record.

SWR gets transitioned to a pen arm before he gets punted, though they may just keep him as cheap back of the rotation depth if any of Lopez/ Ryan/ Ober succumb to the fire sale.  They have to build an entire bullpen so there will be a lot of formerly starters cycled through there.

For me the real on the bubble guys are Larnach, Clemens, Julien, Martin, Funderburk, Ohl, ect.  Below the bubble guys like Gasper and Fitzgerald can go back to being AAA depth or cut.  

[rv78]

Roden and Outman look like they will fit right in. Roden hit .158 and Outman is currently .133. Good Job Falvey. You know how to pick 'em.

[JADBP]

Actually, the team is a total DUMP PAYROLL operation now.  There is NO player making over $2-3 mill that can feel safe on this team.  Even some who are not, like Varland, gets traded (an insane trade!!).  So, yeah, Larnach, Wallner, Jeffers, Ryan, Ober, and Lopez are all unsafe.  Is even Buxton safe?  But don't be surprised if he too is traded!!!  That would be SHOCKING, but the deadline madness was shocking so I'd say shocking but not surprising.  Plenty of teams would gladly trade for a Buxton who sees to be in his (somewhat late) prime.  Others with rising cost are also automatically on the bubble, like Royce, Topa, Tonkin, and Lee.  Don't get too attached to anyone!

Here are the two real problems with the Twins right now:  1)  the players have lost pretty much all respect for the coaching staff and the front office, and 2) the front office has lost the respect of both trading partners and fellow owners (they proved to be patsy's at the deadline, taking sucker trades (Varland) just to keep dealing).  

When I say players have lost respect and trust of the coaching staff, I am not limiting this to Twins players.  WHAT free agent, in their right mind, would sign with the Twins now? Falvey might try, but he just won't get any real takers in Free Agency!  The penalty will be getting bottom run players while being forced to pay a premium just to get them to sign.  The winter meetings are going to be very lonely with free agents quietly shunning the Twins.  Falvey or Rocco walk into a room and many immediately walk out.

So, they are left with only one option--start trading away players to restock a team with definite needs.  Yes, we have plenty in the pipeline--particularly outfielders, pitchers--but who is our 2026 1B or C?  We're likely to trade Jeffers (now with the third highest pay on the team (ignoring Vasquez)!).  So, expect a couple of years of really bad baseball.

Now, this all plays into the NON-SALE of the Twins.  Only an idiot would believe that dumping 40% of the team, including low cost, high upside players, was attractive to potential buyers.  Falvey got wound up by other GMs and couldn't resist trading away players to anyone who knocked on the door.  He was definitely played.  So, I have to believe that any new owner that comes in comes in with strings attached.  I'd be very surprised if Rocco and Falvey make it through next year. 

Falvey so seriously devalued the team that a sale became impossible.  He likely cost the ownership big bucks,  and if not the Pohlads, then certainly the new co-owners are looking for his replacement already.  And the stunning inability to translate top prospects into top players will cost Rocco dearly.  

Sigh....I can only blame the owners for hanging on to Falvey for so long that he cost them big bucks.  So stupid of them.  But it is their own damn fault.  

[Doctor Wu]

21 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I've owned property on Martin Island for a long time, and I'm increasingly ready to sell.

I'm with you. I was really hoping that at least his bat would come around, but he just hasn't clicked in any area yet. 

[Doctor Wu]

10 hours ago, RaoulDuke said:

For me the real on the bubble guys are Larnach, Clemens, Julien, Martin

I would think that Larnach, Julien and Martin are the three biggest question marks. Will any of them even be with the Twins once April rolls around? 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I think some of Royce's comments fall under the heading of, everyone in that clubhouse thinks it but he's the one saying it. Doesn't make it right. But his comments are the result of a franchise that is a complete trainwreck. I don't see that Twins moving him though, at least not yet. 2026 is the make or break year.

SWR isn't going anywhere. Pablo, Ryan and Ober are likely gone. And Abel, Bradley, Zeb, Festa...they could be good. They could struggle. Too many unknown quantities with the starting pitching. As long as SWR is cost effective, he'll have a spot.

Roden stinks. Harsh but true. He should be a fourth outfielder playing 2 times a week and coming in as a defensive replacement. If the Twins plan on starting him or even platooning him so he gets regular at bats, then his spot in the line up is just another black hole among several.

 

[Coach Wheels]

On 8/23/2025 at 7:28 AM, yeahyabetcha said:

It was more like Roden for France, not Varland 

It would be hard to imagine Varland not being who the Jays were pursuing on trade day, he has 3 years of team control left. I believe the Twins would have DFA'd France if the Jays hadn't taken him as a throw in.  

[tony&rodney]

19 hours ago, RaoulDuke said:

Royce isn't going anywhere there is too much potential upside there and Roden just got here with a promising AAA track record.

Isn't this exactly why many conversations should occur seeking out a team that likewise sees potential in Royce Lewis, or Roden too if that has any chance? What is the bottom range of Lewis? Would Milwaukee (always rebuilding players and seeking power) give up Jeferson Quero for RL?

[RpR]

On 8/23/2025 at 8:37 AM, mikelink45 said:

SWR is interesting when I compare his era with Festa, Ober, and Matthews we could make a case that he should replace them.  It always seems like he is singled out among starters but he has accumulated 1.5 WAR this year and 2 last year.  I do not see him as a really good pitcher, but on a team with only Ryan leading the way in the rotation, he is adequate.  

I hope one of the young guys you listed beat out Roden and I hope we see more OF hitting - not sure Wallner and Larnach are really the answers there or 1B or DH.  

I don't see Royce leaving or the team giving up on him.  We struggled through a lot of down years with Buxton but waited out health and got the star we wanted.  I see Royce on the same path. 

Buxton had a premium glove; Lewis DOES NOT!

[Mike Sixel]

13 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

I would think that Larnach, Julien and Martin are the three biggest question marks. Will any of them even be with the Twins once April rolls around? 

No chance Larnach is. That's not a question for me. 4 million to be bad? No chance. 

Julien has no position, and hasn't hit for a year. I'm not sure that's a question either. 

As much as I want Martin to be Castro with speed..... He's not. That's partially a question I think. 

[Palindrome Bob]

On 8/23/2025 at 7:06 PM, Mike Sixel said:

The hatred for Wallner on this site is truly astounding. 

I definitely wouldn’t call it hatred, at least in my case — I’m just disappointed with his performance this year. With the next crop of outfield prospects breathing down his neck, next year is the definition of make-or-break for him, at least with this organization.

 

On 8/23/2025 at 7:06 PM, Mike Sixel said:

The hatred for Wallner on this site is truly astounding. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

34 minutes ago, Palindrome Bob said:

I definitely wouldn’t call it hatred, at least in my case — I’m just disappointed with his performance this year. With the next crop of outfield prospects breathing down his neck, next year is the definition of make-or-break for him, at least with this organization.

 

 

People want him DFA or demoted. He's going to put up 2 war, his OPS is at or around ,800..... And people just want to get rid of him. Lots of people here.

[Coach Wheels]

On 8/24/2025 at 9:21 PM, Palindrome Bob said:

I definitely wouldn’t call it hatred, at least in my case — I’m just disappointed with his performance this year. With the next crop of outfield prospects breathing down his neck, next year is the definition of make-or-break for him, at least with this organization.

 

 

He's hitting .215 with 19 HR and 32 RBI. That's a ridiculous ratio of HR to RBI. He has to do more offensively

[USAFChief]

On 8/24/2025 at 9:56 PM, Mike Sixel said:

People want him DFA or demoted. He's going to put up 2 war, his OPS is at or around ,800..... And people just want to get rid of him. Lots of people here.

His .800 OPS has had precious little impact. 

I don't want to get rid of him. But he's hard a marginal season. He needs to hit better to have a positive impact. I don't think he's as bad an outfielder as some, but he's certainly not an asset defensively. So he needs to provide offensive impact. Not a few scattered solo HRs here and there.

You can worship at the alter of SLG all day, it doesn't convince most of us. 

And fWAR? Heh.