C U C4: What Went Wrong With Carlos Correa’s Time in Minnesota, and How it Could Have Gone Differently

[Eric Blonigen]

Image courtesy of © Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

On January 11, 2023, the Minnesota Twins signaled a new era and shocked the baseball world by signing star shortstop Carlos Correa to a six-year deal with four additional team options. Correa had enjoyed his initial season in Minnesota prior to his opt-out, and the front office promised Correa that if he chose to re-sign, they would be all-in on fielding a team with World Series aspirations.

This message made it to the public, too. In a presser the day of the signing, Derek Falvey said: “What’s clear to us is that adding Carlos back to the mix, [we want to continue to add], We will continue to think about ways to be creative”.

Fresh off this signing, morale among the fanbase was at a recent high, and signs were pointing skyward. Later that season, the Twins broke their playoff curse, and after the season ended, they immediately sent a letter to fans promising the best was yet to come. 

Just 21 months after the fateful playoff series win, the Twins held a fire sale, moving on from their star shortstop less than halfway through his tenure. What were the factors that led us to this point?

Ownership kneecapping the ability to field a complete roster
Remember Falvey’s promise to field a winner? There’s no reason to doubt his intentions or that he believed he would have payroll flexibility to do so. However, shortly after the 2023 playoff run, team owner Jim Pohlad talked about “rightsizing the payroll”. We all know the impact this made on fan morale, but it also has prevented the Twins from filling canyon-sized holes on their roster.

The Twins went into 2024 with basically no money to spend despite needing a starting pitcher, a first baseman, Byron Buxton insurance, and a bullpen arm or two. Falvey was forced to shop in the scrap heap. First he traded away Jorge Polanco and his $10M contract to free up some money. Carlos Santana was a revelation for cheap, but the trio of Manuel Margot, Anthony DeSclafani, and Justin Topa were either dreadful or didn’t play. Then, at the trade deadline, in desperate need for reinforcements as the Twins held an 88% likelihood to make the postseason, the only move was to sign low-end reliever Trevor Richards. The Twins crashed and burned.

Coming into 2025, the Twins needed a first baseman and a big bat, but the budget only allowed for signing Ty France. It didn’t go well.

Looking forward, a number of players were set to head deeper into arbitration, and would be getting more expensive: Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Trevor Larnach, Royce Lewis, and Ryan Jeffers. This forced some difficult decisions and ultimately, a dismantling of the roster at the trade deadline.

When you are paying one player 30% of your payroll, have Pablo Lopez and Byron Buxton making roughly $37 million combined accounting for another 30%, that just doesn’t leave any margin for signing players that can actually move the team forward. His contract, combined with the Pohlad being richpoor, prevented the Twins from making the moves they needed to. Saving almost $70 million over the next three seasons creates some flexibility and opens possibilities that just haven’t existed for the past two seasons. If only the Pohlads had kept their implicit (and honestly, sort of explicit) promise, things could have gone differently.

 

Injuries and declining production
To be clear, when Falvey signed Correa to his mega deal, the front office was almost certainly expecting a different caliber of production and health than what they received. When you spend $35 million a year, you expect a player who is a perennial All-Star. Over the first two and a half seasons of Correa’s deal, the Twins got All-Star play in just one of them.

In 2023, Correa suffered from plantar fasciitis in his left foot. He had attempted to play through it for much of the season, and it clearly limited his approach at the plate as he put up a 94 wRC+ in 135 games.

2024 was the sort of season the Twins thought they were signing Correa for, as he was having his best season in years. He hit 55% better than average, while showing his typical stellar defense. He was, however, limited to 86 games as plantar fasciitis limited him heavily. He also suffered an oblique strain. But, by rate, he would have received some MVP votes if he had been healthy.

2025 brought us right back to 2023: Correa’s offensive production was below average, and even his typically strong defense took a step back. Additionally, he developed an alarming propensity for grounding into double plays when it mattered most. He swung at pitches at the highest level of his career, and got torn up by sliders. By WPA, Correa cost the Twins nearly four wins this season.

In short, it seems that the Twins (likely correctly) determined that they just wouldn’t get the Correa they were hoping to, and that the contract might hamper them more and more as time passes. To be clear, none of this means Correa is a bad player, or an invaluable one. Even beyond his on-field play, he’s a leader, role model, mentor, and good guy. But, he didn't consistently give the Twins what they needed to contend. If only he could have played at an All-Star clip, and stayed healthy. Maybe things would have ended up differently.

Misalignment with Correa’s wishes
I won't go into this one deeply, as Cody Christie did so already. I will say that this is obviously tricky, because the Twins didn’t sign Correa to be a third baseman. They couldn’t afford to pay a third baseman that kind of money, especially one that doesn’t have a .900 OPS, and especially when they didn’t have a solid shortstop to replace him. And, Falvey couldn't control ownership's tightening of the purse strings. But, it's clear that misalignment was a clear factor that took this deal across the finish line. If only the Twins had actual roster flexibility rather than theoretical, things could have gone differently.

For all of these reasons, the front office determined that they just wouldn’t be able to build a reliably competitive team while the Pohlads and Correa coexisted in the same city.

It’s too bad, really, as this is yet another case of what could have been. Thanks, Pohlads.

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[laloesch]

Pretty good summary I think.  I believe that the Pohlads decided not long after Correa was signed that they were gonna sell especially after the debacle with broadcast tv deals with Bally.  They checked out and started penny pinching again, especially with all of their commercial holdings lagging still from Covid.  It was really bad timing.  I think Correa would be fine if he had a Mauer, Moreau, Stewart types alongside him, but as a stand alone star it’s tough to be effective for most guys.  Not ideal and honestly he’s not what he was when he was with the Astros he’s definitely declined 

[Reptevia]

“If only the Twins had actual roster flexibility rather than theoretical,“

Just about this entire team was always “theoretical”. “Expected” outcomes are not ACTUAL outcomes, and you can’t simply wish something into existence. That is something that powerless people tell themselves to feel better about their lot. Useful from a coping standpoint, but it doesn’t really affect outcomes. 

[tony&rodney]

No argument that the Pohlads decided to cut back on the roster budget. It has been fairly established that after Grandma Pohlad died there was no interest in baseball within that family. They have other concerns, hobbies, duties, and interests. 

The inability of the people in charge of building a strong baseball roster failed mightily and that is where things went wrong. When the Twins lost to Houston in 2023 there were glaring needs/holes that needed to be addressed. The issues were ignored. Correa did what he could. His production wasn't very good this year but the systemic problems are directly attributable to the plans of the front office. A mishmash of slow, defensively challenged position players that struggle to hit wasn't ever going to work. Half a dozen DH types makes for a headache for the pitchers and the dilemma of who can the manager hide where. Correa was just a sideshow. Good for everyone that he can reset in Houston and that the Twins can move on. Also good that the Twins have a reminder each of the next 3 years of their deal ($11M+ to C4). So it goes. Things can get better with 2-4 really good trades in this coming winter.

[Eris]

I feel that discussion of money is just a sideshow to distract from the fundamental issue—how many position players with their current level of production would be starting on playoff caliber teams. Beyond Buxton probably no one. Yes, the Twins are losing money as per the > $400 million debt that the Pohlads want covered in the sale. But don’t let that detract from the real issue which is the failure to draft and develop talent. Even had they been able to afford a $20 million 1B, this would still not be a playoff caliber team. 

[LastOnePicked]

All good points, but I can't help but wonder if 5 inches hadn't made the difference between him being traded or staying. If that loud, long out in Dodger Stadium had instead gone over the wall tied the game, and if the Twins would have taken that crucial series, I can imagine a momentum shift big enough to see him as a part of a 2026 quick retool and a 2027 team comeback.

Nah, nevermind. This team didn't have the gas.

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Reptevia said:

“If only the Twins had actual roster flexibility rather than theoretical,“

Just about this entire team was always “theoretical”. “Expected” outcomes are not ACTUAL outcomes, and you can’t simply wish something into existence. That is something that powerless people tell themselves to feel better about their lot. Useful from a coping standpoint, but it doesn’t really affect outcomes. 

They looked good on paper but can't (hit) play.

[Doc Lenz]

Keep talking about right sizing the payroll by ownership. Yet other teams in the division have and have had lower payrolls during this time. For me that puts it on Front Office and manager and staff. When you spend more than your division rivals and can’t win that’s mismanagement and a good excuse seen here all the time.

[Doctor Gast]

The Twins' biggest problem wasn't about not getting enough money but how Falvey allocated the money he got. He feels he had to overpay for those players he wanted. He overpaid for FAs like Donaldson, Gallo, Vazquez and Correa. Donaldson & Correa were long contacts that we had to get rid of & paid through the nose to get rid of them. There are some FAs whom he didn't pay that much for but the players were so bad that he overpaid. They took big salary dumps on worthless players like DeSclavini, Margot & Sanchez, And gave a big extension to players like Paddack while rehabbing. We aren't NYY, where we can throw money around. We also had a lot of players that hit the top of their trade value & weren't needed, who could have been traded to shore up our fragile areas (where we didn't need to spend money). But they didn't & their trade values have tanked. He also extravagantly brought in FAs, where our own players were as good or even better than those they brought in. We could have made the Twins much more competitive w/o having to depend on a boatload from the Pohlads.

Maybe in Falvey's mind, he thought he was signing an elite SS for many years, just like he thought many players he acquired were going to be good but weren't & SPs Mahle, Desclavani & Paddack's arms were healthy when they weren't. While Falvey thought he had an elite SS for years & paid for it, despite SF & NYM didn't think so. In reality he got a 3Bman for the bulk of the contract & should have paid accordingly.

Since we are talking about how things could have been better. Although Falvey probably has an open door policy so players could come in & air their opinions. But I'd like to question how much does Falvey really listens? Correa shared that he had for 2 yrs. told Falvey that he needed to shift to 3B, Correa has made it known to Falvey who the Twins should target. It appears that it met deaf ears. Do you think that this could have affected the morale? Varland was sad & surprised about being traded & Paddack wasn't surprise but was sad. But they have adjusted well & are happy, both have dominated for their teams, Correa, Castro & Duran seem to be very happy & are also dominating. Although the Twins had the talent to compete, they were very flat, Could it because of the atmosphere the Twins created? 

 

[gman]

The Pohlads didn't really want to spend for a winner, or they would have planned from the beginning to spend more money. The Twins can't keep up with the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Astros or at least a half dozen other clubs in the Al and a similar number in the NL.

Correa didn't want to be in Minnesota. The Twins were just the team he used to increase the bidding. He always assumed he would get a $350 million dollar contract from someone. Again the Twins were the only team to give him basically a 1 year deal for $35 million and an opt out. If he had wanted to be in Minnesota he would have signed the deal they offered him for $250 million during his first year. Next he went to the Giants to talk to them about their $300 million deal, failed the physical. Then went to the Mets and did the same thing. No other team got into that bidding war for him but the Twins. They had the highest deal on the table by about $75 million plus the option years. You will notice that he still kept his Houston home and that no others joined him in MInnesota.

Falvey was trying to make the team as good as possible and hoped that Correa would attract other good free agents to the team. Unfortunately that's when the Pohlads dropped the bombshell and said they weren't paying for any more.

 

[darin617]

Correa never should have been signed in the first place. 

[h2oface]

The biggest failure was Correa himself. Couldn’t stay on the field and didn’t provide superstar consistency offensively. All the other things mentioned are true as well, but Correa didn’t provide close to the value paid. 

[Doctor Wu]

What went wrong? Well, he couldn't stay healthy for extended periods of time for one thing. And obviously his numbers were down overall too.  Sure, there were some positives with having Correa on the team, but frankly I'm relieved that he's gone and that we shed (most) of that albatross of a contract. Give some of these hot-shot prospects a shot at shortstop now, and I'm talking about someone other than Brooks Lee. So far he's been a huge disappointment. 

[Doctor Wu]

18 hours ago, gman said:

Correa didn't want to be in Minnesota.

I think that's true. We were the fallback plan. Certainly Minnesota was not on his list of preferred destinations. Oh well, it was interesting for a while, now time to turn the page. 

[Whitey333]

Perhaps if Falvey was better at budgeting the payroll dollars given we would have been better off.  Perhaps if Baldelli was an actual major league manager we would be better off.  Perhaps if the players, especially Correa, performed better we wouldn't have been in this spot.  But with the Pohlads Perhaps not.  But it see

[TwinsDr2021]

20 hours ago, h2oface said:

The biggest failure was Correa himself. Couldn’t stay on the field and didn’t provide superstar consistency offensively. All the other things mentioned are true as well, but Correa didn’t provide close to the value paid. 

In 22 CC put up a 5.3 WAR, played 136 games and the Twins took 3rd in the Division. 23, he put up a 1.3 WAR in 135 (not great), in 24 he put up 3.7 in 86 games. This year wasn't good, but there isn't really a reason to believe he can't become a 3+ WAR if healthy. Also he had only twice played more than 110 games 7 seasons, so the injuries should be expected. CC wasn't in the top reasons for 22, 24, 25, him being on the team might be but that is more on the FO them him. And if he was playing hurt and telling the FO he should be moved to third, again that is on the FO. 

Paying free agents big bucks usually doesn't work for Mid Market teams, but you know what is worse, not developing all star players or even everyday players (Via trades or the draft) and again that is on the failing FO. 

I mean CC was't great this year but he did hit .267 with a .704 OPS. (Only Buxton had a higher batting average, and his OPS was 7th (but only .70 points from 4th) and again that is more of a sign of this FO than him. 

I am not trying to give him a pass, but I am thinking he is singing Morgan Wallen in his head:

Why they ever sign a guy like me in the first place?
Then turn around say that I'm the worst thing

You hate that when you look at me, you halfway see yourself
And it got me thinkin'
If I'm the problem
The Front Office might be the reason!