Reusse: Extending Morneau might be better than a trade

[jorgenswest]

Extending Morneau might be better than a trade | StarTribune.com

 

Reusse suggests a 2 year contract extension at 10 million per year.

 

I think a better option would be to make a qualifying offer which will be in the 14 million range. I don't think it is wise to commit multiple years to him. However if he thinks he can get 20 million over 2 years or even a Cuddyer type offer, he may reject the offer and the Twins would get a pick that is probably a little more valuable than a marginal prospect.

 

The best option is to trade him for a good prospect, but that offer may not come. So the real trade option might be trade him and acquire two marginal prospects.

 

Assuming there are no obviously worthwhile trade offers, what would you do?

 

1) extend Morneau at 2/10 committing 20 million.

2) plan to make a qualifying offer of 1 and around 14 million

3) trade him this month for marginal prospects

[Halsey Hall]

The best option is to trade him for a good prospect, but that offer may not come. So the real trade option might be trade him and acquire two marginal prospects.

 

Ahh, NO! The best option is to extend him.

[jorgenswest]

The best option is to trade him for a good prospect, but that offer may not come. So the real trade option might be trade him and acquire two marginal prospects.

 

Ahh, NO! The best option is to extend him.

 

You would extend him for 2 at 10 million per?

[ThePuck]

You would extend him for 2 at 10 million per?

 

Well, I guess it would depend. If the money isn't going to be spent on any one other player in that price range, and it wouldn't, would you rather they A: extend him, B: Spend that money on two or three has-beens, or (most likely scenario) C: pocket the money?

[Halsey Hall]

You would extend him for 2 at 10 million per?

 

In a heartbeat.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Eh, if the Twins make a qualifying offer to Justin, he's going to take it. No one will approach that number in FA unless he completely turns it around in the second half.

[Guest USAFChief]

I'd rather see Morneau playing 1st base for the Twins in 2014 and 15, so I'd say if he'll take a reasonable extension, do it. 2/20 is reasonable, IMO, and won't kill the Twins if he tanks or gets injured. What else are they going to spend the money on?

[cmb0252]

No qualified offer because he will take it in a heart beat. I just don't see the value at 10 million a year. He hasn't been worth that in 3+ years.

[Red Holstein]

If they cant trade him just let him walk. I would not risk him accepting the qualifying offer. Im happy with plouffe or mauer moving to 1st base.

[JB_Iowa]

In a perfect world, I'd put the $20 million (or whatever) in a pool (of money) toward buying a starting pitcher (realizing that they have to find one to buy).

 

I like Morneau but I still don't trust his health. I really hope they can find a trade that returns something but otherwise, I'd probably let him walk.

 

(Now, if he wants to talk about a real discount because of all the money he collected when he didn't play, that's another story).

[jorgenswest]

Eh, if the Twins make a qualifying offer to Justin, he's going to take it. No one will approach that number in FA unless he completely turns it around in the second half.

 

By not trading him, they gamble (a few marginal prospects) that he will project 2+ WAR next year.

 

Why might that be a reasonable gamble?

 

His fly ball rate is near his career norm. It has dropped from (40.4 to 37.5). The difference is an increase in line drive rate. His IF/FB rate is actually lower than his career norm. His HR/FB rate is just below half his career norm at 6.5. A few weeks ago I wrote that the 3% HR/FB rate he was carrying wasn't sustainable and that he would hit double digit home runs the remainder of the season.

 

Even with the low HR rate, his WAR is 0.9 at midseason. Just adding a few extra home runs will put that over 2 for the season.

 

Why might he reject the offer?

 

Let's suppose he has a second half similar to the first with a few more home runs. His numbers would comp with Cuddyer from 2011 at the same age. It has to be in his mind that it will be his last chance to get a multiyear offer. Would 3/27 or 3/30 be so far out of reach that he wouldn't go for it?

 

What if he doesn't do well in the second half?

 

The Twins don't have to make the offer. The Twins lose the opportunity to acquire guys like Escobar or Hernandez.

 

What if he does well and accepts the offer?

 

It is a one year commitment where the break even point is around 2.5 WAR. They certainly have the payroll space to take a one year risk.

 

I think the worst case for the Twins is to commit 20 million through 2015 by the trade deadline (as Mr. Reusse suggested) and risk greater decline without seeing how he performs the rest of this season.

 

I am certain that I will read later in this thread that the Twins should trade him for a good prospect or sign him to some bargain deal (as many advocated for Baker last year). If that happens, it is easy to be the GM. Take either of those deals. It's GM reality when there is no obvious option.

 

1) Offer 2/20 extension before trade deadline

2) Trade for marginal prospects

3) Let the season play out (and make a qualifying offer if he achieves 2+ WAR)

[Brock Beauchamp]

Valid points. I'm not against retaining Justin, I'm just saying that making a qualifying offer virtually guarantees that he will be with the team in 2014. We shouldn't even be talking about potentially getting picks for him.

[Kwak]

I say take Justin's $14MM salary add the $5.5MM of Blackburn's salary and sign the best free agent pitcher to a 5 year deal--even if it's Matt Garza! The Twins can pocket the residual.

 

Who would play 1B? There are many in-house candidates--take your pick.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I don't think Justin has much trade value. If you offer him the "qualifying offer" he will take it. I think a better offer is 2/13.5 That's James Loney money and less production... If he rejects, fine. Like Kwak said, there's plenty of in-house candidates to back fill.

[notoriousgod71]

I'd rather have Morneau than Parmelee at first base. And Plouffe just doesn't hit righties well enough to make him a first baseman.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

If they cant trade him just let him walk. I would not risk him accepting the qualifying offer. Im happy with plouffe or mauer moving to 1st base.

I guess mauer to first is inevitable, but I would rather see him catch. His defense at catcher adds value to the singles production. I like Plouffe at 1 but we have fewer immediately viable 3b candidates. If you retain Morneau (cheaply) for 2 years, then move Plouffe/sano to 1, you've got better options, and less immediate drop in production. If Morneau walks, I think Parmelee is the best stop-gap

[Thrylos]

This is ridiculous. I bet Colabello/Parmelee can have the same performance the next couple years for $19M less...

[Mike Sixel]

Bah, sign random dude to play first for a couple of million, then sign 2 legit MLB players with all the money they have. This is not rocket science. 20 million comes off the book.

[beckmt]

Might take that bet. I think there is a greater chance if Parmelee does not heat up here is not here next year. And I have seen nothing that suggests that he should be. You could move Plouffe to 1st and start Sano at third and get better production than Parmelee is showing.

[Larsbars08]

Morneau isn't going to get anything approaching the 15 million he earns this year. If nobody is willing to trade a decent prospect, than I have no problem with them offering him a 2 year/15 million dollar contract. Obviously he wants more, and he'll have to take a large paycut. But if he continues to play like he has this year, who realistically is going to offer him more? He's been a soft hitting 1st baseman for two years now, with a history of concussions. No team is going to offer him a contract approaching the one he is finishing.

[diehardtwinsfan]

extending Morneau is just like making a trade.

[Kwak]

extending Morneau is just like making a trade.

 

It's more like using millions of dollars as charcoal for your backyard grilling.

[Highabove]

If we want to get the payroll under 60 million next year, Morneau will have to come off the books.

[Benchwarmerjim]

maybe this thing will shake out like Rick Aguilera. Aggie was traded in the middle of the 95 season to the BoSox (for Frankie Rodriguez!) and then in the offseason sign as a free agent with the Twins.

Later the Twins traded him and Scott Downs to the Cubs for Kyle Lohse

[kab21]

At this point I don't care if the Twins trade Morneau for marginal prospects or keep him and he becomes a FA. The last thing they should do is sign him to an above market value extension or extend a qualifying offer. Let him enter FA and bring him back if there isn't any significant interest. By the end of next year the Twins are going to need to find room for Buxton and Sano. Actually they are going to need to find room for Parmelee and Plouffe and the OF/1B/DH positions are already crowded.

 

It would be nice to have Morneau back since fans like him but it isn't a priority since aging .750 OPS hitters aren't difficult to find. The Twins also have Doumit for 3.5M and he can actually play C (albeit badly). Strangely Doumit has few fans on here and he is significantly cheaper than the 2/20 or the qualifying offer that some are suggesting.

[old nurse]

The current offensive production outside of RBI of Morneau is comparable to Overbay after 2010. The next contract Overbay signed was for 5 million. I don't think the inflation in baseball contracts would make him a 10 million kind of player unless you are touting his RBI total as a significant stat.

[jorgenswest]

It would be nice to have Morneau back since fans like him but it isn't a priority since aging .750 OPS hitters aren't difficult to find. The Twins also have Doumit for 3.5M and he can actually play C (albeit badly). Strangely Doumit has few fans on here and he is significantly cheaper than the 2/20 or the qualifying offer that some are suggesting.

 

I like Doumit as a bench bat/DH. He appears to be a good guy to have in the clubhouse. The money doesn't hurt the Twins at all. I don't think the Twins should ever put him behind the plate. I would rather carry a back up catcher that can defend than a 13th pitcher or 2 utility infielders. How many games have each of the 4 middle infielders play in this year? Did it help the Twins win any of those games?

[jorgenswest]

Back to the topic...

 

I did not see any posts agreeing with Mr. Reusse that the Twins should offer a 2/10 per year contract. There is not reason for Morneau to do a team friendly extension during the season. In his mind, he has to believe the power will come back at some level in the second half.

 

 

Therefore if he is not worth a 10 million per contract (which pays off at less than 2 WAR year), he is not worth anything more than marginal prospects. We can't fault the Twins for taking that type of deal.

 

 

It really isn't very different from Liriano last year. No one was advocating for the Twins to offer him a qualifying offer or give him anything but a team friendly extension. If he didn't have that kind of value to the Twins, he didn't to other clubs also.

 

 

As for Morneau, of the Twins three choices in extend (not team friendly), trade (marginal return) or wait. I would wait until the end of the season. If he shows good power in the second half, I would make that qualifying offer. If not, I would let him go.

 

 

Of course, if some team offered a solid prospect or Morneau was interested in a team friendly extension, any would take that offer.

[TKGuy]

I think if he'd take 2/$20 I would do it. I like the idea of having him around playing first base when Sano and Rosario (even Santana???) are here. It's not like we are going to spend $20/year on a starter so they money is not going to steal from next year's signings. The payroll should not even be a consideration at this point. If the Twins see Parmelee as the long term 1b option, then by all means let him walk. However, if Parmelee is an OF/1b backup and bench bat, keep Justin around.

[Halsey Hall]

Sure you did. Go back to page one.