Could the Twins Trade Joe Ryan? 6 Suitors to Watch if Minnesota Sells High on Their Ace

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I think they can get a decent return. 

Where I doubt this front office... is the ability to develop what they get back in return. 

 

Me too. I'll want MLB-ready prospects.

They could get decent return for Ryan but I'd want them to blow my sox off for him or I'm not selling.

[Mike Sixel]

13 minutes ago, BillyBallLives said:

You might be right — but shouldn’t we expect ownership and Falvey to be on the same page? You don’t greenlight a $200 million contract and then yank the payroll rug out from under the front office. Did anyone even think through what Correa’s deal would do to the broader payroll picture? Because if they did, it sure doesn’t look like it.

It’s like buying a Corvette and parking it in the street because you can’t afford the garage.

Now, if C4 starts hitting again — and he could — Falvey might end up looking like a genius. I’ll give him that. Being a GM isn’t easy, especially in Minnesota, where there’s no room for error. But this one’s on both the front office and ownership. They chose splash over strategy — and now they’re paying for it.

 

I thought I was more clear? I think they changed their mind after the signing.. but we don't know, but that's my belief. 

[T.O.]

3 hours ago, Sjoski said:

In the Falvey era only two trades come to mind that worked out in our favor, 

The Cruz/ Ryan deal, and I forget the other.

So, I frankly don't trust Falvey. He's more likely to reverse engineer the best trade he ever made. Whatever his process is, I don't trust it. 

 

This.
Horrible record with trades.
I have no confidence in Falvey to make a trade worth the huge value of Joe Ryan (Consistent, 2 years control, low salary). I would rather watch the Twins rot until new ownership steps in
or
Watch the Twins suddenly play like the team that beat the Cubs 2 in a row.

And why is it so many pitchers do better when they leave the Twins?

[Riverbrian]

44 minutes ago, BillyBallLives said:

That’s a great point — I’ve honestly never thought about it that way. The hidden cost of a weak farm system isn’t just in wins — it’s in wasted payroll flexibility. When you’re not getting production from league-minimum guys, you’re forced to fill holes with overpriced free agents or risky bounce-back bets.

Meanwhile, teams like the Brewers and Tigers are churning out cheap, serviceable talent, which gives them $40–50 million of wiggle room the Twins just don’t have.

I'm glad you see it. Welcome to a very small club. 

Most the time I have to over explain to no avail how I don't have a problem with Harrison Bader himself but have a problem with the need for Harrison Bader. 

Everybody not making the minimum is a dent in payroll. We are in this situation because of arbitration raises. We spend too much time looking at the big contracts. The goal should be to keep a healthy pipeline of prospects (Like other teams are successfully doing) so we can hang on to the money in the budget so we can keep players like Joe Ryan when they go up in price or add another big contract via free agency. 

This isn't a problem that just sprung on us. It's been building because of low numbers of making the minimum over the years. It's been building because of the strip mining of parts of our left handed hitting prospects, the failure (thus far) of those that they placed bets on... like Julien and Miranda, the trading of prospects like Steer for more expensive players and last but not least... the lack in faith the organization places on players that the manager won't utilize when they get a cup of coffee on the 26 man because he is too worried about the game today with no regard to tomorrow or how they could work into the future of this organization. Lee comes up and gets every opportunity. Everybody else requires multiple injuries for the chance to show they could help. Producing a 900 plus OPS in St. Paul does not remove this lack of faith in their own product at the major league level. Vet players producing below .700 OPS does not create a lack of faith in the vet or move the needle on the lack in faith in the prospect at the major league level. The result is a concentration on one or two prospects a year that they do have faith in. Lee and Keaschall for example and that will not produce the numbers necessary to afford Joe Ryan when his arb number goes up 16 million a year. 

Eventually it crashes, We can't afford the players we want to keep and we are forced to turn the kids loose anyway due to a lack of options but we will starting two years behind our competition because our influx of young talent will be year one and the other organizations will have year one, year two and year three of players making the minimum.   

There was always a bill to pay for how they have been treating young pre-arb players. For this lack of faith in them. 

The possibility of trading Joe Ryan is what it says on this invoice. If not Ryan... others.  

[chpettit19]

To trade him now I'd need a massive return. But I'd be listening. They should always be listening. On everyone. If Baltimore thinks Joe Ryan is the key to them getting back to contention the next handful of years and they want to get him in there now so they waive Samuel Basallo plus in my face you better believe I'm listening. But I wouldn't be actively calling and trying to sell Joe Ryan at the deadline.

I might during the offseason, though. At this deadline I'm selling guys who won't be here moving forward. That's guys on expiring deals and guys I can't afford/won't pay. As @Riverbrian points out, the Twins don't have the budget to keep everyone. And I don't think they should want to. This team is what most of us thought they were, mediocre. Somewhere around .500 teams shouldn't be having you fighting to break the budget to keep them together. 

I think they have the pitching to compete. I don't think they have the hitting, fielding, or base running. So, I'd sell off anyone who I don't think will be here moving forward (Castro, Bader, France, Larnach (I don't think they'll pay his arb raises), Vazquez, Clemens) and give all the ABs to people who might be. The rest of 2025 would be about figuring out what kind of pieces I have that can contribute in 2026 and beyond and getting them experience. Can Julien and Miranda figure it out or do I need to cut them? Does Emma look completely overwhelmed or is there something there (next year is his last option year, we need to start gathering data on him at the big league level- although I'm open to trading him if he has big value)? Can McCusker show any sort of adjustment making in the majors over 2 months? Can Martin be a 4th OFer/2B? 

I 100% understand why people don't want to trade away good pitching. And it's why I wouldn't do it now. But what path do people see to improving the position player side? This isn't a blip on the radar anymore. This position player group hasn't been good enough for years. They don't have the financial resources to improve it. They haven't been good at developing all around players. I'm a prospect lover, but they have a 2 year window. Letting Ryan, Ober, Lopez, Duran, and Jax walk for comp picks after 4 years of roughly .500 teams fighting for the final wild card spot would be a disaster. So, I wouldn't trade any controllable pitching now. But I'd be open to it this offseason and moving forward. If Festa, SWR, and/or Zebby look like any sort of reliable rotation option one of Ryan, Lopez, or Ober likely needs to get dealt next offseason. If Ober doesn't come back and dominate it's Ryan or Lopez.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Trading Ryan is a very, very bad idea unless the goal is a complete tear down and rebuild. Moreover, the suggested returns are very light with the possible exception of Duran from Boston and even he isn't enough on his own. Finally, even if you were doing a complete rebuild. why wouldn't you wait until the off season after playing your younger guys to see what you have?

Let's start at the beginning. What's the the most valuable trade asset in baseball? Cost controlled quality starting pitching. Ryan is more than that, he's a cost controlled #2 or even #1 starter. The only guy with more trade value in the American League is Tarik Skubal and he's only controllable through 2026.  Garett Crochet's control years ran out this year and he starts a 6 year, $170m contract in 2026.  Conversely, Ryan will make less than $20 total in 2026 and 2027, maybe even less than $15m. Everybody wants Ryan. 

Prospects are not enough for Ryan, no matter how good and "can't miss" they are. His value is an established good cost controlled MLB hitter with a high ceiling like Duran AND a "can't miss" prospect like Lombard or Tong. No one is going to give us that. I'm not sure anyone even has that on the same team. Anything less is trading for less value. Why on earth would you do that?

I understand writers have to get eyeballs on baseball closing in on the trade deadline. This kind of speculation by Morosi is just that - clickbait. There is no good reason for the Twins to do any of those deals.  

[Major League Ready]

14 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

 

Everybody not making the minimum is a dent in payroll. We are in this situation because of arbitration raises. We spend too much time looking at the big contracts.

I generally support your position on this topic.   I agree when you point the need to bring in a player like Bader is problematic.  However, we differ on arbitration players.  Arbitration players only account for 22% of payroll.  Free agents and extensions like Buxton account for 58%.  Players in their arbitration years are generally speaking cost effective.  

We only have two players that are bad investments.  (Correa & Vasquez) Three if you count Dobnak.  Correa is by far and away the biggest problem.  That's the risk anytime one player represents such a high percentage of  payroll.  Yet, fans call for this type of signing and many here were insistent upon the Twins signing him, some of them even when the contract was $300M+.  Point being many fans see this very different than you and I am in your camp.  I got a lot of flak when I pointed out that there are virtually no examples of successful teams paying this percentage of payroll to one player.

I would position this as they can easily have half the roster in arbitration years if they minimize the need for free agents.   

[BillyBallLives]

40 minutes ago, T.O. said:

And why is it so many pitchers do better when they leave the Twins?

Let check on the last one....Alcala 
 

 OUCH. From an 8.88 ERA in Minnesota to a 0.96 in Boston. Sure, the Red Sox have only used him in low-leverage mop-up roles — wisely — but if he keeps dealing like this when the pressure’s on? Then yeah, the question becomes very real: what were the Twins thinking?

And to make it sting even more — look who they replaced him with. Joey Wentz had a 4.15 ERA in Pittsburgh. In Minnesota? Try 15.75.

The Twins essentially gave away a 0.96 ERA arm and replaced him with a guy getting torched to the tune of 15.75.   

Still an un-tested sample size, but the numbers are definitely sloping the wrong way.

Either there’s something in the water here… or this coaching staff has a serious development problem.

[T.O.]

6 minutes ago, BillyBallLives said:

Let check on the last one....Alcala 
 

 OUCH. From an 8.88 ERA in Minnesota to a 0.96 in Boston. Sure, the Red Sox have only used him in low-leverage mop-up roles — wisely — but if he keeps dealing like this when the pressure’s on? Then yeah, the question becomes very real: what were the Twins thinking?

And to make it sting even more — look who they replaced him with. Joey Wentz had a 4.15 ERA in Pittsburgh. In Minnesota? Try 15.75.

The Twins essentially gave away a 0.96 ERA arm and replaced him with a guy getting torched to the tune of 15.75.   

Still an un-tested sample size, but the numbers are definitely sloping the wrong way.

Either there’s something in the water here… or this coaching staff has a serious development problem.

Look at Thielbar this year with Cubs vs last few with Twins.

[Riverbrian]

31 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I generally support your position on this topic.   I agree when you point the need to bring in a player like Bader is problematic.  However, we differ on arbitration players.  Arbitration players only account for 22% of payroll.  Free agents and extensions like Buxton account for 58%.  Players in their arbitration years are generally speaking cost effective.  

We only have two players that are bad investments.  (Correa & Vasquez) Three if you count Dobnak.  Correa is by far and away the biggest problem.  That's the risk anytime one player represents such a high percentage of  payroll.  Yet, fans call for this type of signing and many here were insistent upon the Twins signing him, some of them even when the contract was $300M+.  Point being many fans see this very different than you and I am in your camp.  I got a lot of flak when I pointed out that there are virtually no examples of successful teams paying this percentage of payroll to one player.

I would position this as they can easily have half the roster in arbitration years if they minimize the need for free agents.   

No argument. 

I'll add a couple of thoughts though. Arb players are generally cost effective unless... they are really successful like Joe Ryan. That changes the equation and of course... and I know you know this... the years spent in arbitration. We will only have two entering Arbitration next year on the low end of the pay scale. That 22% is about to go up. 

Anyway... I know we are not in disagreement. This team has a budget and how that budget is spent... either big at the top or players at the minimum will determine if you can afford Joe Ryan.

Correa certainly creates an obstacle that the front office needs to work around. But, this Correa obstacle was placed into the path of this car 3 years ago and it's not really movable but it's existence didn't sneak up on the front office driving the car. So the next thing to look at is... How do you work around it? or better yet and more positively how do you work with it? The money is spent... what are you doing with the rest of it?   

[Twodogs]

My only problem with trading Ryan is who replaces him? Or who do you have to go out and get to replace him and what's the cost of something like that?  That's why I'd trade expiring contracts.  Paddack, Bader, Castro, etc....  then go and trade Duran and Jax. Shop them to the Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, etc....  Lots of teams need backend help for the playoffs stretch.  Those main teams actually have a lot of questions in the back of their bullpens.  The Twins already probably have guys that can replace Duran and Jax in guys like Varland, Stewart, etc.....  I mean they just flat out drop guys like Megill and Henriquiz over the last couple of years.  So they obviously can put together a nice bullpen when needed.  So I think the big piece, if the Twins fall out of the race should be Duran and or Jax.  Then I think Paddack could bring back something decent.  I think Bader and Castro could bring back something decent at the lower levels.  But if you pit the Dodger and Padres against each other for Duran I think you could pull something big.  Relievers are very volatile, trade Duran and Jax now.  You can replace them.  Don't trade Ryan, very hard to replace him with all of the salary constraints.  

[BillyBallLives]

57 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm glad you see it. Welcome to a very small club. 

Most the time I have to over explain to no avail how I don't have a problem with Harrison Bader himself but have a problem with the need for Harrison Bader. 

There are only three ways to build an MLB roster:

1. Draft and develop

2. Trade

3. Free agent signings

That’s it. That’s the entire blueprint.

The problem? The Twins are struggling in all three areas.

• Draft and develop: The farm system hasn’t produced enough league-minimum, impact players — the kind of cheap talent that gives you payroll flexibility. Compare that to what the Brewers or Tigers are rolling out, and the gap is glaring.

• Trade: Too many lopsided deals, and the ones that do work out feel more like accidents than vision. The Joe Ryan trade was a win. But how many others can we really say that about?

• Free agents: When you’re a mid-market team, you can’t miss on the big contracts. Yet they’ve done just that — Josh Donaldson flopped, and now Correa’s $200 million deal is handcuffing the roster.

Yes, there are bright spots in each category. But the problem is, in a franchise with such little margin for error, one big mistake in any area cancels out progress in the others. 

[BillyBallLives]

7 minutes ago, T.O. said:

Look at Thielbar this year with Cubs vs last few with Twins.

I just looked.  5.32 to 1.83

Bull pens numbers can be misleading. It's how do they perform in high stakes situations.
Allowing inherited runners to score is the best way to tell.

A reliever can enter a game with a 6-1 lead, give up 4 runs and get credited with a HOLD.

[P Meyer]

The "right move" is to trade Joe Ryan. Selling high on any asset is rarely a bad move.  It is unrealistic to think this iteration of the Twins will be competing in high level playoff series where having two dominant starting pitchers is so critical. The Twins are realistically 2 years away from their higher level prospects being able to contribute at the MLB level which would give the roster the influx of talent it needs. FA is not a viable options for the Twins to do this. A good "build through the minors" organization would be able to turn Ryan into multiple contributors over the next few years,

 

The issue is (as others have said) is the Twins have yet to prove they are able to execute this type of plan. Larnach and Lewis are the latest examples of the system producing players who were once thought of as key parts of the future only to see them sputter at the MLB level. So the reality of turning Ryan into multiple, lesser players is not very appealing.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, BillyBallLives said:

There are only three ways to build an MLB roster:

1. Draft and develop

2. Trade

3. Free agent signings

That’s it. That’s the entire blueprint.

The problem? The Twins are struggling in all three areas.

• Draft and develop: The farm system hasn’t produced enough league-minimum, impact players — the kind of cheap talent that gives you payroll flexibility. Compare that to what the Brewers or Tigers are rolling out, and the gap is glaring.

• Trade: Too many lopsided deals, and the ones that do work out feel more like accidents than vision. The Joe Ryan trade was a win. But how many others can we really say that about?

• Free agents: When you’re a mid-market team, you can’t miss on the big contracts. Yet they’ve done just that — Josh Donaldson flopped, and now Correa’s $200 million deal is handcuffing the roster.

Yes, there are bright spots in each category. But the problem is, in a franchise with such little margin for error, one big mistake in any area cancels out progress in the others. 

Lopez. 

[Road trip]

32 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Lopez. 

Also getting Duran for Eddie E (loved Eddie, but that one worked out well).

Getting Maeda for Graterol was probably a minor win, given the Graterol hasn't quite become the stud many hoped for.

Jake Odorizzi seems like ancient history now, but that was also a good get... gave up nothing of value.

But yeah, overall, they are maybe hitting .500 at best on trades as we could also name several that didn't work out.

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Also getting Duran for Eddie E (loved Eddie, but that one worked out well).

Getting Maeda for Graterol was probably a minor win, given the Graterol hasn't quite become the stud many hoped for.

Jake Odorizzi seems like ancient history now, but that was also a good get... gave up nothing of value.

But yeah, overall, they are maybe hitting .500 at best on trades as we could also name several that didn't work out.

People here mostly don't remember the trades that don't fit their narrative. I'm not in love with some of the decisions when they are made, but I also don't think they are stupid or inept or clueless or any of the other words they are called. I just don't think they are quite good enough.

[Linus]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

People here mostly don't remember the trades that don't fit their narrative. I'm not in love with some of the decisions when they are made, but I also don't think they are stupid or inept or clueless or any of the other words they are called. I just don't think they are quite good enough.

Well put. I’m not a fan of the FO but they know more than me. Unfortunately for us you nailed it: they just aren’t quite good enough. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I’m really not sure why so many assume that it’s all black or white with no gray area in between.  I’m in the never sell a guy like Joe Ryan camp, because he is a quantity that is difficult to find and replace under the type of budget that we know the Twins will likely have going forward.  However, it’s not because “the manager doesn’t know how to manage anyway”, nor because “the GM can’t be trusted to identify talent”, or because “the team doesn’t know how to get prospects to the majors”, or because “everybody does better before/after they play for the Twins”.  Can you find instances of truth in each one of those?  Absolutely.  Does the preponderance of the evidence say any of those things taken as a whole?  I think not.  I don’t think any of these people are geniuses (nor are any of the gm’s/managers/staff of any other team), but I think they are decent at what they do.  Are there better people out there?  Probably, but are there ones that aren’t already in a job like that elsewhere? That’s a tough one.  If you think that our guys are well below average, then there is room for growth by moving on.  But if you think they are average or even slightly above average, then there is quite a bit of danger in getting someone new.  Remember, half of the league will have average to below average people working for them.  That’s how it works.  At the moment, I think we are near the average — some things they do better and worse than others, but overall near the average.  

In the short term, I say don’t trade Joe Ryan.  But certainly choose the right baseball reasons to either make or not make that move rather than some fatalistic rant.  Things can absolutely get worse, but YMMV.  

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Trading Ryan is a very, very bad idea unless the goal is a complete tear down and rebuild. Moreover, the suggested returns are very light with the possible exception of Duran from Boston and even he isn't enough on his own. Finally, even if you were doing a complete rebuild. why wouldn't you wait until the off season after playing your younger guys to see what you have?

Let's start at the beginning. What's the the most valuable trade asset in baseball? Cost controlled quality starting pitching. Ryan is more than that, he's a cost controlled #2 or even #1 starter. The only guy with more trade value in the American League is Tarik Skubal and he's only controllable through 2026.  Garett Crochet's control years ran out this year and he starts a 6 year, $170m contract in 2026.  Conversely, Ryan will make less than $20 total in 2026 and 2027, maybe even less than $15m. Everybody wants Ryan. 

Prospects are not enough for Ryan, no matter how good and "can't miss" they are. His value is an established good cost controlled MLB hitter with a high ceiling like Duran AND a "can't miss" prospect like Lombard or Tong. No one is going to give us that. I'm not sure anyone even has that on the same team. Anything less is trading for less value. Why on earth would you do that?

I understand writers have to get eyeballs on baseball closing in on the trade deadline. This kind of speculation by Morosi is just that - clickbait. There is no good reason for the Twins to do any of those deals.  

FYI Crochet was controlled through 2026 when he was dealt. And he's 26, Joe is 29. 

Hunter Brown is more valuable than Ryan. I don't think Seattle trades Bryan Woo to MN for Ryan straight up. Or George Kirby. Detroit hangs up on Falvey if he offers Ryan for Jobe straight up. Or Olson. Joe Ryan is not the 2nd most valuable trade asset in the American League. The Tigers have 3 pitchers alone who are more valuable than him. 

Joe Ryan has never made it through a full season maintaining this kind of performance. I'm not saying the Twins should trade him, but he's not Crochet who was an ace for a full season and is 3 years younger with only "half" a season less control. We need to be more realistic about who Joe Ryan is. As somebody else mentioned earlier in the thread, we need to very much consider that this is an outlier season for Joe. He's never done this for a full season. He's a full 1.4 bWAR ahead of any full season he's ever had already. 

Again, not saying they should be looking to trade Joe Ryan right now. And he's very valuable. But he's absolutely not the 2nd most valuable trade piece in the American league. Those were just the pitchers I could think of off the top of my head. Ryan is good and valuable, but let's be a little more realistic about who he is.

And if this half season has truly vaulted him to the Tarik Skubal stratosphere of trade value, then I change my stance and the Twins should be shopping him hard because he's not that valuable of a player and they'd be selling him for more than he's actually worth and they'd actually have a chance to rebuild this thing while they still have Lopez, Ober, Jax, and Duran under control.

[BillyBallLives]

47 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Jake Odorizzi seems like ancient history now, but that was also a good get... gave up nothing of value.

Good to remind us Falvey haters of this better trades. I forgot about this one too. On top of that. Twins resigned him as a FA for the next year  and has his best year as a pro in 2019.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, BillyBallLives said:

Good to remind us Falvey haters of this better trades. I forgot about this one too. On top of that. Twins resigned him as a FA for the next year  and has his best year as a pro in 2019.

I love your willingness to listen! Thank you.

[KBJ1]

Ryan IS the top.prospect you want in a trade. Trading him away for "prospects" doesn't work unless you trade away the rest of your highly paid players & go total rebuild. Because when they are gone in a few years and the "prospects" for Ryan don't pan out, you've got nothing. Trade everybody and 2 or 3 most likely work out, maybe you have something and some money for free agents.

[tony&rodney]

The bottom line remains .... How does another team value Joe Ryan in terms of completing a transaction to reel him in? I mentioned Nick Kurtz and Jackson Holliday in other posts. Those will not happen. Someone mentioned a requirement of both Anthony and Mayer from Boston. That will not happen either. I'm intrigued by the Dodgers and what they might offer, but perhaps they are more focused on a relief pitcher or bats. If the Twins can gather talent that will play, they need to assess the situations. 

The poor outfield play was on display today as was the lack of speed and hitting. This needs to be addressed in some manner. Maybe Keaschall and Culpepper make a difference. Maybe a trade occurs. Right now the Twins have Ryan, Festa, Woods Richardson, and Paddack as starting pitchers with Lopez, Matthews, and Ober returning at some point, perhaps before August 1. We all know that there is no such thing as too much pitching. Nevertheless, at some point, either through rookies promoted or players acquired the Twins will absolutely need to escape their current condition as described so aptly by chpettit19 in the comment above. It isn't going to hurt the Twins to find trading partners for most or all of Paddack, Vazquez, France, Bader, Larnach, and Castro. Obviously, some of the returns will be light. The Twins should listen on every player. While the most optimal time to trade is in November or December, anything that improves the talent should be welcome.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I probably overrate Ryan's value, but I don't think I overrate his value to the Twins. IF we want to compete in the next couple of years we need Ryan and Lopez to be a high end one-two punch at the front of the rotation. While I don't want to hold onto players this year so we can win 83 games instead of 78, I'm not ready for a complete tear down and rebuild. I think trading Ryan is a step we should only take as part of a complete rebuild. I think having him along with Lopez at the front of the rotation is a crucial element for the Twins to compete in 2026 or 2027. 

[Road trip]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

People here mostly don't remember the trades that don't fit their narrative. I'm not in love with some of the decisions when they are made, but I also don't think they are stupid or inept or clueless or any of the other words they are called. I just don't think they are quite good enough.

I'm similar.  It's a tough gig, with the payroll/revenue deck being stacked against them.  They may not be quite good enough to get where we would all like to be.  Development of many top prospects has stalled, which may be an injury and coaching thing more than a FO selection thing.  Philosophically, the roster looks like it is a bit stuck fighting the last war (big, slow, powerful position players that would have been very desirable, circa 2018) instead of designed for the way the game has evolved.

One thing I will credit them with is finding some value from the waiver wire and low draft picks.  We all cringe and joke about this, but its a skill set that low payroll teams benefit from.  In the past three years they have found real value in other team's castoffs:  Castro, Stewart, and this year Clemens being the prime examples.  You could argue that the Twins go dumpster diving too much, or sometimes give too long a leash to their selections (Bride), but I think the payroll limitations mean they have to try.  They've also had some low draft picks do very well: Varland, Ober, Sands.  With both of these groups there have been far more misses than hits, but that's the nature of fixing or developing players who have flaws in their profile.

So, I might give the FO a grade in the B range.  Problem is the Twins need an A to compete against the big spenders.  Tough gig indeed.

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

No argument. 

I'll add a couple of thoughts though. Arb players are generally cost effective unless... they are really successful like Joe Ryan. That changes the equation and of course... and I know you know this... the years spent in arbitration. We will only have two entering Arbitration next year on the low end of the pay scale. That 22% is about to go up. 

Anyway... I know we are not in disagreement. This team has a budget and how that budget is spent... either big at the top or players at the minimum will determine if you can afford Joe Ryan.

Correa certainly creates an obstacle that the front office needs to work around. But, this Correa obstacle was placed into the path of this car 3 years ago and it's not really movable but it's existence didn't sneak up on the front office driving the car. So the next thing to look at is... How do you work around it? or better yet and more positively how do you work with it? The money is spent... what are you doing with the rest of it?   

We are on the same path.  Just discussing nuance at this point.   Tampa, Cleveland, and Milwaukee all rely on this type of plan because they have to.  As you point out, Correa’s contract means we will also have to rely on filling the upcoming expiring contracts from within.

I am not worried about them being able to keep the team together through 2027 when Ryan becomes a free agent.  They have $40M coming off this year.  That should cover all the arbitration raises for 2026 and 2027.  

Obviously, prospects are going to need to replace some current players.  Let’s start with the OF.  I think the odds of replacing Bader and perhaps Larnach by the start of 2027 are very good between Martin / Jenkins / Rodriguez / Gonzalez and Rosario and Keaschall could end up in the OF or a Willi Castro role.  I pray the starting OF by the halfway point next year is Buxton / Jenkins / Rodriguez.  This changes the ratio we have been talking about by at least two (Bader/Larnach) and Wallner could go too.

Royce is kind of the linchpin for the IF.  It’s hard to say who plays what position but they should be able to put it SS/2B/3B together.  Culpepper likely is part of the solution by 2027.   1B and Catcher are iffy.  I am pulling hard for Sabato to be our Max Muncy.  That would really help the problem you are illustrating here.  Julien is not an inspired choice but could be adequate.  Keaschall’s athleticism would be under utilized at 1B but that could be the fall-back position or Lewis at 1B.  Man do we need Cardenas, Diaw, and /or Olivar to work out although a back-up catcher can be had for a modest sum.  

Here is my best case (dream) scenario.  They develop enough pitching by the end of 2026 to trade Pablo.  I love Pablo but the 21.75M could be spent elsewhere and they could get a nice return if the SP prospects really step up.  I know it’s a longshot but that would be ideal.
 

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I’m really not sure why so many assume that it’s all black or white with no gray area in between.  I’m in the never sell a guy like Joe Ryan camp, because he is a quantity that is difficult to find and replace under the type of budget that we know the Twins will likely have going forward.  However, it’s not because “the manager doesn’t know how to manage anyway”, nor because “the GM can’t be trusted to identify talent”, or because “the team doesn’t know how to get prospects to the majors”, or because “everybody does better before/after they play for the Twins”.  Can you find instances of truth in each one of those?  Absolutely.  Does the preponderance of the evidence say any of those things taken as a whole?  I think not.  I don’t think any of these people are geniuses (nor are any of the gm’s/managers/staff of any other team), but I think they are decent at what they do.  Are there better people out there?  Probably, but are there ones that aren’t already in a job like that elsewhere? That’s a tough one.  If you think that our guys are well below average, then there is room for growth by moving on.  But if you think they are average or even slightly above average, then there is quite a bit of danger in getting someone new.  Remember, half of the league will have average to below average people working for them.  That’s how it works.  At the moment, I think we are near the average — some things they do better and worse than others, but overall near the average.  

In the short term, I say don’t trade Joe Ryan.  But certainly choose the right baseball reasons to either make or not make that move rather than some fatalistic rant.  Things can absolutely get worse, but YMMV.  

This is a great post. 

I have my concerns and I'm not afraid to express them but I'm pretty sure it's a tough tough job that comes with immediate expectation and future expectation. You got to balance winning today with an eye toward the future. 

The gray area is immense... the black and the white areas are thin thin hard to see lines. 

I just can't endorse these guys handling a rebuild because if we require a rebuild, it will be due to this development lull that has happened on their watch. I don't who or why... but the what seems to be apparent at this point.    

 

 

[Riverbrian]

20 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

We are on the same path.  Just discussing nuance at this point.   Tampa, Cleveland, and Milwaukee all rely on this type of plan because they have to.  As you point out, Correa’s contract means we will also have to rely on filling the upcoming expiring contracts from within.

I am not worried about them being able to keep the team together through 2027 when Ryan becomes a free agent.  They have $40M coming off this year.  That should cover all the arbitration raises for 2026 and 2027.  

Obviously, prospects are going to need to replace some current players.  Let’s start with the OF.  I think the odds of replacing Bader and perhaps Larnach by the start of 2027 are very good between Martin / Jenkins / Rodriguez / Gonzalez and Rosario and Keaschall could end up in the OF or a Willi Castro role.  I pray the starting OF by the halfway point next year is Buxton / Jenkins / Rodriguez.  This changes the ratio we have been talking about by at least two (Bader/Larnach) and Wallner could go too.

Royce is kind of the linchpin for the IF.  It’s hard to say who plays what position but they should be able to put it SS/2B/3B together.  1B and Catcher are iffy.  I am pulling hard for Sabato to be our Max Muncy.  That would really help the problem you are illustrating here.  Julien is not an inspired choice but could be adequate.  Keaschall’s athleticism would be under utilized at 1B but that could be the fall-back position or Lewis at 1B.  Man do we need Cardenas, Diaw, and /or Olivar to work out although a back-up catcher can be had for a modest sum.  

Here is my best case (dream) scenario.  They develop enough pitching by the end of 2026 to trade Pablo.  I love Pablo but the 21.75M could be spent elsewhere and they could get a nice return if the SP prospects really step up.  I know it’s a longshot but that would be ideal.
 

Your scenerio would be awesome... I've just lost faith.

We have had a top ranked farm system for back to back to back to back years and still find the team in this position.

A mass import from the farm like you suggest would change the ratios and provide payroll flexibility to keep players we'd like to keep.

But... I'm just not in a good place right now. I can't shake the feeling your scenerio is a ready or not here they come because we have no choice scenario. Now that scenerio did work for the Tigers very well last year but do the Twins have that in them... I'm not sure.

The Brewers have been steadier in a year by year filling of the gaps from within which doesn't require the mass harvest.   

[Vanimal46]

Selling Joe Ryan right now, who’s a top 5 player in the whole organization is premature. I’m open to it this offseason when the Pohlads sell and Falvey is gone