How Twins' Jhoan Duran Has Adjusted to Lower Velocity to Remain Elite

[Eric Blonigen]

Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

An interesting thing happened in Sunday’s game against the Red Sox. Jhoan Duran came into the game for a save opportunity with a one-run lead on the line. He threw nine pitches, closed out the game, and didn’t throw a single four-seam fastball. What should we make of this, and what does it tell us about his evolution?

Over the past couple of years, there’s been a lot of hand-wringing surrounding Jhoan Duran’s decreased velocity. Despite this, he’s found ways to be an elite pitcher. But how has he compensated for throwing just 100 miles per hour? Has the burly hurler become more of a pitcher and less of a thrower? I’d buy that. Has he become a (gasp) soft-tossing, crafty junkballer?

Ok, ok, no, that’s a bridge too far. Clearly, though, he’s made some real changes to his approach on the mound. And it’s working! Let’s talk results. So far in 2025, Duran has the lowest barrel rate, batting average, and slugging percentage, and the best launch angle sweet spot and whiff rates of his career.

Further, Duran has not allowed a pulled batted ball in the air (you know, those pesky shots that have a chance to go yard). Not one! Is that good? That seems good. I hear you yelling at the screen, “But how! How has he done this!?” I get it. You are tired of the exposition. Fine. Let’s dig in.

There are three major tweaks to Duran’s game over the past 180 games or so, which come into sharp focus so far in 2025: the shape of his fastball, the addition of the sweeper, and the overall change in his pitch mix. These changes have led to the development of a true, four-pitch arsenal that would make the best starters in baseball blush with all that movement.

The Shape of His Fastball
The average fan might look at a guy who throws well over 100 on his heater and assume that his four-seamer is his best pitch. For Duran, it’s not. It’s probably his third- or even fourth-best pitch. While it has 100th percentile velocity, it has much less spin than an average fastball. The saving grace is that it moves more than average.

Under the right circumstances (throwing 104 miles per hour), this can make it harder for hitters to square up, and can produce some gaudy strikeout numbers. In 2023, hitters put up a 103 wRC+ against the pitch. With decreased velocity as well as pitch predictability, however, this has led to his fastball being easier to spot and track, and in the past, hitters have done some damage against the pitch. In 2024, Duran allowed a wRC+ of 135. It was clear that it could no longer be the primary pitch for him.

Duran has made some adjustments that have helped the pitch be a bit more effective at reducing hard contact in the air. In 2023, Duran’s arm slot came in at 39 degrees. Last season, he dropped his slot to 34 degrees, getting just slightly closer to a sidearm angle. The result of this change was to reduce his heater’s vertical movement (and resulting whiffs), but also to increase the amount of horizontal run (and weak contact). In 2025, there have been no further changes to Duran’s arm slot. However, he has found a way to coax an extra inch or so of horizontal run, further weakening the quality of contact hitters can make. Thus far, hitters have been held to a paltry 25 wRC+ on the heater.

The Addition of the Sweeper
This one is potentially huge, as a good sweeper, thrown by a good righty, is absolute death to same-sided hitters. In 2024, against righties, Duran’s pitch mix was a roughly even split of four-seamers, splinkers, and big curves. This worked out… ok, as he put up a .719 OPS against the weaker platoon side. Basically, in the aggregate, righties collectively produced average corner outfielder results against him. They didn't bash him, but nor did he dominate them.

In 2025, though? Righties are producing to the tune of just a .614 OPS. That’s what you might expect from, say, a backup catcher. While he hasn’t thrown the sweeper a ton—just 5% of his pitches so far this season—he has gotten tremendous results, with a ridiculous 60% whiff rate on the pitch. That tells us that hitters really aren’t expecting it, or its full 12 inches of break to the glove side. Duran does a nice job of pitch tunneling and release point matching, and all of his pitches look almost identical at first. The curve and the sweeper have similar velocity, but move completely differently at the end, and the same is true of his heater and his splinker.

So, even if hitters are discerning enough to gather that an incoming pitch isn’t a four-seamer or splinker based on velocity, they are probably expecting the curve, since he throws it so much more frequently—and thus, they are fooled by the sweeper. Since this is a newer pitch for him, what remains to be seen is whether he will start to throw it more to righties, and if so, will they guess correctly more often? Even if he keeps it an infrequent weapon, it sure looks as though it’ll help him get outs against righties.

The Change in His Pitch Mix
This is also sort of a big deal. When Duran debuted in 2022, he was throwing his heater nearly 50% of the time; the splinker accounted for 16%; and the rest of the arsenal was his curve. Fast-forward to 2025, and you see a mix that looks like this.

Interestingly, his splinker has gone from 16% usage all the way to 38%. By decreasing his heater percentage, Duran is better able to keep hitters guessing. With the addition of a fourth pitch (at least to righties), he is able to prevent hitters from sitting fastball, which makes them ever more defensive. And, his splinker and curve are coaxing hitters to beat the ball into the ground: both pitches have a negative average launch angle on the season.

Against lefties, Duran has always had a strong complement of weapons. This season, he’s allowing a minuscule .252 OPS against them. That’s probably not sustainable. But, an OPS against in the high .500s probably is. With the sweeper, Duran can now strive to do the same against righties.

Honestly, if there’s one flaw in Duran’s game at this point, it’s that he’s walking too many guys. Part of this can be attributed to an increased reliance on pitches designed to live in the shadow of the zone, or to start near the black and move into chase space, coaxing whiffs out of the zone. He’s walking guys with the splinker at roughly double his career rate. That could just be the still-small sample, or it could be that hitters are being more patient with that pitch, knowing they can’t do much against it. Could he be tipping it slightly? The curious part is that his zone rate is statistically similar to every other year of his career. If he can decrease his walk rate even a bit toward his career norms, Duran will once again be one of the best handful of pitchers in the world, even while throwing "just" 101.

We are watching an evolution happening in real time. Should Duran lose a little more velocity but continue tinkering as a pitcher, there’s no reason to think he can’t be elite for at least the next handful of years. This is a great development, and one that is sure to help the Twins bullpen weather the challenges typical of a 162-game season. Kudos to Duran and the Twins coaching staff for finding ways to continue to improve.

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[LambchoP]

Duran has looked great the last two nights, and really all year. He can still throw 101-102 mph which is more then enough. His addition of the sweeper to throw as a 4rth pitch is much more important than a few mph's of velo. His splinter has looked better than last year too. If he keeps this up he would probably be an all star if only he had more save opportunities. His numbers are all elite, but it's almost impossible for relievers to make the all star team without being one of the save leaders...

[amjgt]

I personally feel like his drop in velocity is overstated.

2022 - 100.8

2023 - 101.8

2024 - 100.5

2025 - 100.5

Extremely flat over the last 4 years. Maybe 2023 was the outlier. 

Also, that 1.3mph drop somehow always gets round up to "2 mph drop" by people trying to make a point. And they talk about 2023 like he was gassing it up to 104 every outing. 

I'm not totally sure how to look it up, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if there were actually just a couple months in 2023 where he WAS regularly in that 103-104 range that pulled his yearly average up 1 mile per hour over his 2022 average. 

I know this wasn't REALLY the point of this article and I did enjoy reading it, but I just needed to vent a little about this decreased velocity narrative. 

Edited to add: He threw 12 pitches 103.0 or higher in 2023

[bean5302]

Duran has the highest velo in MLB. His "diminished" velocity is the same as it was in his rookie season and last year. I can see it now. Duran throws a 103mph fastball some game this year. Next game, he only hits 101. TD writers recap  "Jhoan Duran's decreased velocity, and how he learned how to pitch with this crippling disability."

[DJL44]

Good time to reward him with a long-term contract extension.

[NYCTK]

55 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

His numbers are all elite, but it's almost impossible for relievers to make the all star team without being one of the save leaders...

Not really. There were 11 RP all stars last season. 5 were among the leaders, another 4 were good closers, and 2 were just really good RP. 

[Cris E]

Lower velo? Seriously? Last year this was maybe a thing, but his avg 4 seam is over 100 this year. He's learning to pitch, and oh by the way he's fixed the FB too. This is a fine article about a broadened repertoire,  but it seems to use the lower velocity aspect as clickbait. Let the good work stand on its own and resist the temptation to hunt for views. Thx.

[CRF]

I haven't seen any lower velo, that isn't done intentionally. He still hits 100-102 when he wants to. That's plenty good enough. 

[NYCTK]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Duran has the highest velo in MLB.

Did Mason Miller die? 

[NYCTK]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Good time to reward him with a long-term contract extension.

You wanna pay him 5 yr/70M? Two years of arb plus 3 year FA? That's probably about what it takes. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

He’s a smart and talented guy.  He’s made some adjustments to try to be the best he can be. He definitely seems to be succeeding.  Why would we be surprised?  Velocity isn’t the only worthwhile measure of a pitcher.  I know I wouldn’t want to even try to hit some of the crazy stuff he’s throwing up there. 

[jmlease1]

It'll be very interesting to see where the data lands by the end of the season. One of the biggest concerns with the 4-seamer is that with a loss of velocity (which is funny when it's still averaging 100mph, but he isn't humping it up to 102-104) whether or not he could get by simply blowing it past guys. But if they can't catch up to it enough to more than foul it off, it still generates strikes, even if it's less effective in finishing a hitter off.

The splinker is still ridiculous. The fact that he can throw that at 98-99 mph is absurd. But the curve is flat-out filthy as well. If he's able to mix in a sweeper and balance his pitch mix even more, he's well positioned to keep dominating without needing to hit 104.

There's some concern about the walks, but with dominating stuff, I'd rather have him walking the extra guy from time to time than giving up hits. baserunners are less scary with a guy throwing this kind of gas, deadly K-rates and a WHIP under 1.00.

He's doing very well, and his consistency has been nice in a season where Jax has had some awful luck, fluky results, etc.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, NYCTK said:

You wanna pay him 5 yr/70M? Two years of arb plus 3 year FA? That's probably about what it takes. 

He's coming off a base of $4M this season, so two years of arb will probably cost $17M. I wouldn't pay him $53M for 3 seasons after that and I doubt anyone else will either - that's $17.6M a season. That would make him one of the top 5 highest paid relievers in baseball.

I would offer $13M for one season of free agency at age 30 - 3 years $30M guaranteed. He gets life changing money now and gets to be a free agent at age 30. He's never made much money, this is his first contract above the league minimum and he got a tiny $65k signing bonus.

[Blyleven2011]

I can't resist ...

Trade Duran and throw Rocco in as a bonus  , just kidding ...

Duran has showed better performance this year , last year he started the year on IL list and didn't seem to be the same pitcher when he returned  , good but not great ...

This year is alot different , he's on his game as long as he doesn't pitch in the 7th or 8th to often  ...

[miller761]

Love the movement on his pitches, As long as he has command of his pitches he will be just fine, I can only hope we can give him all the save chances he can handle, And maybe a few more like tonight!

[Fatbat]

Adjusting his arsenal. Sounds like a warrior that is smarter and more talented than most.  Keeping batters off balance and swinging defensively. Sounds like he will continue his success. 

[saviking]

On 5/9/2025 at 10:01 AM, DJL44 said:

Good time to reward him with a long-term contract extension.

Trade Correa and we could lock up Ober, Ryan, Duran and maybe ... O yah. Correa isn't tradable with his salary so we're stuck with him. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, saviking said:

Trade Correa and we could lock up Ober, Ryan, Duran and maybe ... O yah. Correa isn't tradable with his salary so we're stuck with him. 

Ober and Ryan are already under team control through the ages you would want to keep them.

[h2oface]

I understand all the stats et al, but what I see in the games is an enormous amount of contact. Maybe not the last 2 games, but last year and the beginning of this year, almost every pitch the batters would swing at they would touch the ball. Batters make contact on almost all his pitches. It got to be the feared Eddie G save. At least a hit and a walk every outing with two men on base, and hope for the best. Soft contact too often still results in runs at crunch time, especially with the Twins sad defense these days. If he continues to become "that" pitcher, with his increased offerings, he could be a starter, as he has expressed a desire to do, for his next team, when the Twins are too cheap to keep him.

[Fatbat]

15 hours ago, saviking said:

Trade Correa and we could lock up Ober, Ryan, Duran and maybe ... O yah. Correa isn't tradable with his salary so we're stuck with him. 

Pohlads should just pay the right players to win a WS.