Is Carlos Correa’s Swing Broken?

[Cody Christie]

Carlos Correa has worked for two seasons to put his plantar fasciitis issues behind him. Now, he has entered the year in relatively good health, but something is wrong with his swing.

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Carlos Correa is a tinkerer. He's sustained a focus on improving his swing throughout his career. As players age, their style at the plate can change, with decreases in bat speed and strength. Father Time is undefeated when it comes to aging baseball stars. However, some positives come from aging, with players tending to have a more selective eye at the plate. If a batter is dedicated, smart and talented enough, better pitch recognition and more consistent contact can emerge later in a career.

Last season, Correa’s swing might have been at an all-time best. During the first half, he hit .308/.377/.520, with 31 extra-base hits in 75 games. For some perspective, Correa is a career .273 hitter, and he’s only had one season (2017) where he finished with a batting average over .300. On June 12th, Correa had his first five-hit game and credited some of his success to conversations he had with former Twins infielder Luis Arraez. 

Arraez had a clear message for Correa at that time. “I just said, ‘Hey, you just need to hit the ball to the middle, right field. That’s it,’” Arraez said. “Hit it to the middle, bro. Don’t try to think too much.”

That simple philosophy has evaded Correa during the 2025 season. Entering play Tuesday, he was hitting .153/.219/.237, with five extra-base hits and a 7.8 BB% against a 15.6 K%. When he does hit the ball, it’s weak contact, with a 34.7 Hard Hit%. That would mean less frequent contact than he's posted since 2018. Correa’s .210 wOBA is in the bottom 10% among big-league batters, and his average exit velocity is under 88 mph for the first time in his career. 

What’s even more disturbing is that pitchers are starting to take note of Correa’s struggles. He has seen fastballs more regularly this season (over 60% of the time) than in any previous year of his career. Against fastballs, he is hitting .122 with a .195 SLG. Last season, he posted a .313 BA against fastballs and a .479 SLG. Pitchers don't need to rely on their secondary pitches versus Correa, because he isn’t doing damage against heaters.

So, what has changed with Correa’s swing this season? The underlying numbers point to him being on top of the ball, which doesn’t allow him to drive it. His 42.9 Topped% this year is nearly 10% higher than his career mark and over 5% higher than 2024. Because of this, his highest-value contact rates are significantly reduced. His Solid% dropped from a career 6.8% to 2.0% and his Barrel% has decreased from 9.2% to 6.1%.

Bat tracking data shows that Correa’s swing might not be completely broken. His average bat speed over the last two seasons has been around 74.5 mph. This season, he is at 74.0, with the MLB average being 71.5 mph. His batting stance data is also nearly identical to last season. His depth in the box and distance off the plate are within tenths of an inch compared to last season. He is intercepting the baseball further in front of the plate by nearly an inch (2.1” last season, compared to 3.0” this year). This slight change could mean he is not letting the ball get far enough into the zone to make more powerful contact, catching the ball on the end of the bat, but it's probably not a telling figure.  

Correa has been a slow starter throughout his career, and perhaps the 2025 season is part of a career trend. Historically, April has been Correa’s lowest-OPS month, with more strikeouts in the season’s first month than any other. Correa hits the fewest home runs, has his second-lowest slugging percentage (just ahead of August), and grounds into the most double plays to start the year. Hopefully, he's just shaking off the rust and finding his timing, as seems to be his wont.

Perhaps Correa may need to get on the phone again with Arraez and ask for some tips from the three-time batting champion. Correa’s swing has some positive signs, with his expected numbers pointing to him as unlucky. His K% and Whiff% rank in the 80th percentile or higher, so he is not swinging and missing as much as in previous years. However, he seems to be on top of the ball and meeting the ball a little too early in front of the plate. Some minor adjustments now could help him get back to the All-Star form he showcased in 2024. 

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Will Correa round into form? What stands out about his swing so far this season? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[thelanges5]

Better make those adjustments soon or it’ll be too late. Also his speed (or lack thereof) he is in the 30th percentile for sprint speed. Is he trying to preserve those heels or is he still hurting?

[$tryf4Life]

I am a results person.

So yes, I would say it is broken. 

[RpR]

Hmm, Simmons still has a .263 career average but it only took two years and he could no longer hit.

Bad omen.

[TwinsChupacabra]

Broken swing?  Yes.  Broke the Twin's bank with his terrible contract?  Yes.  Broke the rules in the cheating scandal?  Yes.

Awesome   

[Fatbat]

Someone fix him. Whatever he is doing, isn’t working. 

[CRF]

If his swing is broken, he's got some teammates right there with him. 

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, TwinsChupacabra said:

Broken swing?  Yes.  Broke the Twin's bank with his terrible contract?  Yes.  Broke the rules in the cheating scandal?  Yes.

Awesome   

I don't really care about the cheating much. But my goodness any twins fan that booed Altuve while cheering Correa really is the biggest dope. 

[FlyingFinn]

No, but his wrist may be broken - as he leaves the game.

[knothole61]

2 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

No, but his wrist may be broken - as he leaves the game.

Finn, you scooped me on that one!

[Trov]

Sounds like the wrist has been an issue all season so far, finally hit point he said no mas. 

[LambchoP]

I think it's hilarious that all we've heard all off-season was that Buxton and Correa were finally fully healthy. Correa felt good all spring training. Of course now that he's gotten off to the worst start in his career, we hear about a wrist injury that he's been dealing with since last year. I KNEW this was coming, just said it in another thread. An injury would pop up to allow the twins to bench him for awhile and he'd say he's been hurt all year using it as an excuse as to why he's been so horrible. I just think his best days are behind him. At least we didn't sign him to some 12 year deal.

[Beast]

There are 6 other guys on the roster who have gotten fairly significant playing time that are hitting .200 or less.  There are 2 players who have 10 or more ABs with an OPS over .750.  As a team, the slash line is .213/.282/.338/.620.  Two of the 3 guys hitting right are new to the organization (France and Bader), and haven’t been destroyed yet (give it some time).

Correa has demonstrated sustained elite performance in the highest stakes baseball for his whole career prior to coming here.

Maybe it’s not Correa that’s the problem?  Anyone ever consider that?

This organization is incompetent and a disgrace from top to bottom.  Has been for decades now.  I can’t put that on one player.  It’s ridiculous to see the routine Twins’ fan knee jerk, “see, this is why free agent contracts are bad.”

How well was it going here before the Correa contract?  We literally set the record for playoff ineptitude across any professional sport on the entire planet.

Let’s all get a regrip on the reality of this franchise.  Coming back now with hindsight and blaming the litany of organizational woes on Correa’s contract is lazy, and false.  I still applaud them for attempting to take a shot at winning something meaningful.  But, they got scared and didn’t finish their shot, resulting in an air ball.

The leadership structure, from ownership and FO, to management/coaching, is gangrenous and needs to be amputated.  It doesn’t matter what players we have here.

[D.C Twins]

Thanks for doing this article....very interesting!

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

If his wrist was hurting last season why didn't he get it fixed in the off-season?  Kirilloff had wrist issues and got surgeries on them.  He had no issues with the wrist the last 2 seasons.  Why do these guys always think rest alone fixes their injuries?

That's my thought as well, but I also understand things just decide to "hurt" randomly as we get older. Whether it's just something Correa will have to live with or whether or not there's something going on we'll have to find out. Honestly, the area Correa was looking at seems a bit like it could be a potential hamate issue.

In regard to Kirilloff, it was a pain management issue. He had no/little cartilage left in his wrist after he wore it all out and he had to have the head of his radius shaved a little to reduce the bone on bone wear and subsequent inflammation as I recall.

We have no idea whether or not Correa's been told it's a pain management thing or that rest will permanently heal it or whatever. It apparently wasn't serious enough to impact him last year.

[h2oface]

It's Thursday AM. The MRI's for Wallner and Correa were done Wednesday AM. Correa played the field Wednesday afternoon. What are the MRI results already?