Is Carlos Correa’s Swing Broken?

Carlos Correa is a tinkerer. He's sustained a focus on improving his swing throughout his career. As players age, their style at the plate can change, with decreases in bat speed and strength. Father Time is undefeated when it comes to aging baseball stars. However, some positives come from aging, with players tending to have a more selective eye at the plate. If a batter is dedicated, smart and talented enough, better pitch recognition and more consistent contact can emerge later in a career.

Last season, Correa’s swing might have been at an all-time best. During the first half, he hit .308/.377/.520, with 31 extra-base hits in 75 games. For some perspective, Correa is a career .273 hitter, and he’s only had one season (2017) where he finished with a batting average over .300. On June 12th, Correa had his first five-hit game and credited some of his success to conversations he had with former Twins infielder Luis Arraez. 

Arraez had a clear message for Correa at that time. “I just said, ‘Hey, you just need to hit the ball to the middle, right field. That’s it,’” Arraez said. “Hit it to the middle, bro. Don’t try to think too much.”

That simple philosophy has evaded Correa during the 2025 season. Entering play Tuesday, he was hitting .153/.219/.237, with five extra-base hits and a 7.8 BB% against a 15.6 K%. When he does hit the ball, it’s weak contact, with a 34.7 Hard Hit%. That would mean less frequent contact than he's posted since 2018. Correa’s .210 wOBA is in the bottom 10% among big-league batters, and his average exit velocity is under 88 mph for the first time in his career. 

What’s even more disturbing is that pitchers are starting to take note of Correa’s struggles. He has seen fastballs more regularly this season (over 60% of the time) than in any previous year of his career. Against fastballs, he is hitting .122 with a .195 SLG. Last season, he posted a .313 BA against fastballs and a .479 SLG. Pitchers don't need to rely on their secondary pitches versus Correa, because he isn’t doing damage against heaters.

So, what has changed with Correa’s swing this season? The underlying numbers point to him being on top of the ball, which doesn’t allow him to drive it. His 42.9 Topped% this year is nearly 10% higher than his career mark and over 5% higher than 2024. Because of this, his highest-value contact rates are significantly reduced. His Solid% dropped from a career 6.8% to 2.0% and his Barrel% has decreased from 9.2% to 6.1%.

Bat tracking data shows that Correa’s swing might not be completely broken. His average bat speed over the last two seasons has been around 74.5 mph. This season, he is at 74.0, with the MLB average being 71.5 mph. His batting stance data is also nearly identical to last season. His depth in the box and distance off the plate are within tenths of an inch compared to last season. He is intercepting the baseball further in front of the plate by nearly an inch (2.1” last season, compared to 3.0” this year). This slight change could mean he is not letting the ball get far enough into the zone to make more powerful contact, catching the ball on the end of the bat, but it's probably not a telling figure.  

Correa has been a slow starter throughout his career, and perhaps the 2025 season is part of a career trend. Historically, April has been Correa’s lowest-OPS month, with more strikeouts in the season’s first month than any other. Correa hits the fewest home runs, has his second-lowest slugging percentage (just ahead of August), and grounds into the most double plays to start the year. Hopefully, he's just shaking off the rust and finding his timing, as seems to be his wont.

Perhaps Correa may need to get on the phone again with Arraez and ask for some tips from the three-time batting champion. Correa’s swing has some positive signs, with his expected numbers pointing to him as unlucky. His K% and Whiff% rank in the 80th percentile or higher, so he is not swinging and missing as much as in previous years. However, he seems to be on top of the ball and meeting the ball a little too early in front of the plate. Some minor adjustments now could help him get back to the All-Star form he showcased in 2024. 

Will Correa round into form? What stands out about his swing so far this season? Leave a comment and start the discussion.