The Minnesota Twins Bullpen Has Been Very Good and Very Bad

[Nick Nelson]

The overall numbers are impressive, but the situational outcomes have been pretty disastrous so far.

Image courtesy of William Purnell-Imagn Images

Here's a fact that might surprise you if you've been following the Twins' dreadful 4-9 start to the season: Their bullpen ranks second in the American League with a 2.38 ERA, second only the Cleveland Guardians. That's not a luck-driven mirage either, as their 3.25 FIP ranks fourth. In this regard, the Twins relief corps is living up to its lofty preseason billing. 

But like I said, if you're paying any attention to this slumping ballclub, the numbers don't compute. Anyone can recognize that the offense is more responsible than the pitching staff for Minnesota's struggles, but the bullpen has been far from adequate in answering the call when needed.

That's expressed by this statistic, which far better matches up to what we've seen: The Twins bullpen ranks 13th out of 15 AL teams in Win Probability Added (WPA), which measures how much a player’s actions increase or decrease their team’s chances of winning, based on the game situation before and after each play. 

On Thursday, we watched Cole Sands enter in the seventh inning with a one-run lead and surrender it almost immediately. Two nights earlier, on Tuesday, theoretical bullpen ace Griffin Jax came on in the eighth inning of a 1-1 game and handed Kansas City the lead with a devastating error. Already Jax had given up two costly homers in his first three appearances. There was also the game during the opening homestand where Jorge Alcala entered in the 6th inning of a 1-1 game and combined with Louie Varland to make it 4-1. That's a lot of lapses in this early slate of games.

Again, let me be clear: the languishing lineup deserves a much larger share of blame here. The Twins have shown minimal ability to build leads or bounce back from deficits, which is a massive problem. And while I expect it will get somewhat better, I'm losing hope that this offense has potential to become consistent or much better than average overall. In order to turn things around and start winning, Minnesota needs its bullpen to step up and deliver when it counts.

In that regard, they've been coming up woefully short for quite a while now. Dating back to August 18th last year, when Alcala's implosion in Texas set off this nightmarish stretch, the Twins bullpen ranks 29th out of 30 MLB teams in WPA, ahead of only (you guessed it) the White Sox. 

So yes, they do have a nice shiny ERA this year, thanks in large part to garbage-time contributions from Randy Dobnak and Darren McCaughan, who are now both off the 40-man roster but — quite tellingly — are tied for second in relief innings pitched for the Twins, with 5 ⅓ innings apiece of one-run ball. The reality is that in terms of affecting games, this bullpen has been just about the worst in baseball for an extended time, and in order to succeed this team needs the exact opposite.

So where does that leave us? Despite the rocky moments and another discouraging start, there is reason to believe this bullpen can be part of the solution rather than the problem. Pitching performance — especially when backed by a strong FIP and elite ERA — tends to stabilize over time, unlike the more volatile nature of situational stats like Win Probability Added. The underlying talent is real, and reinforcements like Brock Stewart could be back soon to bolster the group’s late-inning credibility.

But none of that changes what the Twins are facing right now. They've dug themselves an early hole, and the margin for error is rapidly narrowing. A bullpen that keeps its composure and executes in leverage spots isn’t a luxury at this point — it’s a vital necessity. Until that shows up with consistency, it’s hard to have full confidence in this team’s ability to claw back into contention.

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[Fire Dan Gladden]

You mean relief pitchers are volatile? Really?  I did not know that.

The good bullpen numbers are weighted by mop-up guys coming in and pitching well.  Take them out of the equation and this group has not been overly effective.  Kind of a broken record right now...

[Muppet]

Interesting way to gauge bullpen performance with different metrics, but the WPA would be much higher if the offence were able to able to score more than 2 runs per game. All of those scoreless frames would have been worth more WPA if there were more runs to protect. As it is, almost every bullpen run scored can be the difference between winning 2-1 or losing 1-2. The isolated Sands and Jax performances aside, I'd say the pitching is looking pretty good.  Bob Gibson and Mariano Rivera would have losing records and terrible WPAs on this team. 

[Nick Nelson]

33 minutes ago, Muppet said:

Interesting way to gauge bullpen performance with different metrics, but the WPA would be much higher if the offence were able to able to score more than 2 runs per game. All of those scoreless frames would have been worth more WPA if there were more runs to protect. As it is, almost every bullpen run scored can be the difference between winning 2-1 or losing 1-2. The isolated Sands and Jax performances aside, I'd say the pitching is looking pretty good.  Bob Gibson and Mariano Rivera would have losing records and terrible WPAs on this team. 

I get it but the Twins have lost 7 straight games decided by 3 runs or less dating to last year. Yeah the bullpen has been subjected to too many close games and low margins for error but that's probably just not gonna stop. They need to step up, period.

[thelanges5]

This offense is leaving no margin for error for the pitchers and defense. Ugly baseball right now and hard to see a path out of it. There’s no calvary coming on the offensive side in the short term. 

[IndianaTwin]

The Twins have to be leading the league in No. 8 guy in the bullpen performance. 😀

Dobnak, McCaughan and Blewett have combined for a 1.38 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in their 13 innings. And that doesn't even count the scoreless inning from Castro. 

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, Muppet said:

Interesting way to gauge bullpen performance with different metrics, but the WPA would be much higher if the offence were able to able to score more than 2 runs per game. All of those scoreless frames would have been worth more WPA if there were more runs to protect. As it is, almost every bullpen run scored can be the difference between winning 2-1 or losing 1-2. The isolated Sands and Jax performances aside, I'd say the pitching is looking pretty good.  Bob Gibson and Mariano Rivera would have losing records and terrible WPAs on this team. 

Thanks. Separate from this particular discussion, I've been intrigued by WPA as a stat, but I hadn't thought about it being contextual based on a team's offense. The 1927 Yankees, for example, may well have had low WPA numbers for their pitching staff. 

[tony&rodney]

The metrics are largely fictitious to me. Why? Because there are many instances when I am watching a game where a routine ground ball or an easy pop up or a fly ball drop which results in runs. The official scorer rules "no play" if it was in foul territory and most commonly awards a base hit if the ball is in fair territory. This has most often gone well beyond what would be a normal play for an MLB player. Since this occurs with such frequency in games I actually witness, it makes it difficult to know what goes on in the games I don't see. I get the fascination with numbers and this is just my response to what seems like an unfair tilt against pitchers and in favor of poor defenders. 

There was some conversation related to how often balls drop in the outfield with an adequate fielder versus a poor one just before the season started this year. Some people suggested it occurred once or twice a week at most. Just for kicks, I charted a few games. A couple were Twins games and three were other games not involving the Twins. It was in the first week, so weather may be seen as an excuse but 3-5 hits were awarded in each game. I gave up keeping track. Even in minor league games you can see some obvious doubles that should have been F9 (fly out to right fielder). I understand others see plays differently but pitchers must tear their hair out at times. Maybe not the Twins pitchers though because they throw the ball around pretty commonly.

Oh well, let's get those bats going and score 6-10 runs per night.

[silverslugger]

To summarize, we're good...when we're not busy being terribly horrible.😉

[D.C Twins]

As a unit...which is how they should be judged in relationship to their benefit to the team.... just bad. 

You should talk to Cody though... you are both in the bargaining phase of grief... you could be good for each other!

[Sjoski]

Good article. 

Many Bullpen pen stats in MLB are totally jacked. 

A reliever can enter a game with a 6-1 lead. He gets two outs, surrenders 4 runs and gets credited with a HOLD. 

A stat system should reward relievers who actually protect leads, not just those who pitch during them.

 

 

 

 

[FargoFanMan]

Stats are great. They make baseball the ultimate numbers game. The fact of the matter is though did you hold the lead or lose the lead. The eye test/ traditional scouting tells you exactly what happened. Our “Aces” have been giving up leads and the lower end guys have been preserving leads/keeping them in the game. Plain and simple. No stats needed. Your eyes tell you the whole story.

[Fatbat]

Throw Paddack in the pen. Throw Alcala away. Then put Festa and Matthews in the starting rotation.  
 

bring up Headrick, oh wait. He is a yankee with 0.00 era and a 0.56 whip in 5.1 innings. Yeah small sample size….

[MGX]

I'm not saying Saves are everything, but after 15 games our bullpen is 0-3 in Save situations & that is last in MLB. The only other team without a Save are the White Sox - 0-2. Like Nick mentioned the hitting has been terrible & deserves plenty of blame for the 4-11 start, but the bullpen hasn't helped at all.

[DocBauer]

I wish I had an answer. A little over 2 weeks in and I've seen this team lose games in more ways that even seem possible. 

Some numbers say the pen is actually performing well. Some say they have been awful. But a dozen or so games in, do we have an accurate read? EVERY reliever has bad games. Period. Right now, those bad games are being magnified. There have been more than a few games where the pen has been excellent, but the offense was ridiculously poor, or the starter had a bad game. But who ever expected Jax to lose a game because of an errant toss to 1B? Alcala looks good, gets hit on the arm, and falls apart. If I'm not mistaken, I believe he was solid his next turn? But then he got hammered a couple games ago in a loss. 

When games are this tight, and the line for winning or losing is 1 run, are the relievers getting wound up too tight? Or do we blame an offense that is good for about 1 inning a game?

As bad as thus early season has been, just a couple clutch hits would make a difference. Pitchers not throwing the ball away probably ensures 2 more wins.

It's been beyond crazy and disappointing. I don't think generally solid performances from the #8 guys in the pen should be undersold, however. And im still confused by roster construction that has Canterinoon the 40 man instead of the 60 man because they don't want to pay him a little more and start his service clock too early? Unfortunately, its likely he never throws a single pitch at the ML level. And if he does, we're worried about his service time clock at this point? 

Anyway, the numbers from the pen are so varied at this point after only 15 games that I'm not worried AT THIS POINT. It really is too early to pass judgment. Look again May 1st and I might have a different opinion.