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Here's a fact that might surprise you if you've been following the Twins' dreadful 4-9 start to the season: Their bullpen ranks second in the American League with a 2.38 ERA, second only the Cleveland Guardians. That's not a luck-driven mirage either, as their 3.25 FIP ranks fourth. In this regard, the Twins relief corps is living up to its lofty preseason billing.
But like I said, if you're paying any attention to this slumping ballclub, the numbers don't compute. Anyone can recognize that the offense is more responsible than the pitching staff for Minnesota's struggles, but the bullpen has been far from adequate in answering the call when needed.
That's expressed by this statistic, which far better matches up to what we've seen: The Twins bullpen ranks 13th out of 15 AL teams in Win Probability Added (WPA), which measures how much a player’s actions increase or decrease their team’s chances of winning, based on the game situation before and after each play.
On Thursday, we watched Cole Sands enter in the seventh inning with a one-run lead and surrender it almost immediately. Two nights earlier, on Tuesday, theoretical bullpen ace Griffin Jax came on in the eighth inning of a 1-1 game and handed Kansas City the lead with a devastating error. Already Jax had given up two costly homers in his first three appearances. There was also the game during the opening homestand where Jorge Alcala entered in the 6th inning of a 1-1 game and combined with Louie Varland to make it 4-1. That's a lot of lapses in this early slate of games.
Again, let me be clear: the languishing lineup deserves a much larger share of blame here. The Twins have shown minimal ability to build leads or bounce back from deficits, which is a massive problem. And while I expect it will get somewhat better, I'm losing hope that this offense has potential to become consistent or much better than average overall. In order to turn things around and start winning, Minnesota needs its bullpen to step up and deliver when it counts.
In that regard, they've been coming up woefully short for quite a while now. Dating back to August 18th last year, when Alcala's implosion in Texas set off this nightmarish stretch, the Twins bullpen ranks 29th out of 30 MLB teams in WPA, ahead of only (you guessed it) the White Sox.
So yes, they do have a nice shiny ERA this year, thanks in large part to garbage-time contributions from Randy Dobnak and Darren McCaughan, who are now both off the 40-man roster but — quite tellingly — are tied for second in relief innings pitched for the Twins, with 5 ⅓ innings apiece of one-run ball. The reality is that in terms of affecting games, this bullpen has been just about the worst in baseball for an extended time, and in order to succeed this team needs the exact opposite.
So where does that leave us? Despite the rocky moments and another discouraging start, there is reason to believe this bullpen can be part of the solution rather than the problem. Pitching performance — especially when backed by a strong FIP and elite ERA — tends to stabilize over time, unlike the more volatile nature of situational stats like Win Probability Added. The underlying talent is real, and reinforcements like Brock Stewart could be back soon to bolster the group’s late-inning credibility.
But none of that changes what the Twins are facing right now. They've dug themselves an early hole, and the margin for error is rapidly narrowing. A bullpen that keeps its composure and executes in leverage spots isn’t a luxury at this point — it’s a vital necessity. Until that shows up with consistency, it’s hard to have full confidence in this team’s ability to claw back into contention.
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- DannySD, DocBauer, nclahammer and 2 others
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