How Long Will Minnesota Twins Be Without Injured Ace Pablo López?

[Matthew Trueblood]

The team's rotation anchor left his start Tuesday with a hamstring injury. Given what we've learned, how long should fans expect him to be out of their mix?

Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

After he had to leave in the fifth inning of his latest start against the Kansas City Royals, Pablo López is ticketed for the injured list. An MRI revealed a mild strain in his right hamstring. According to Dan Hayes of The Athletic, the team hopes for a minimum stay on the injured list. Given the early date on the calendar and the cold weather in which the team will continue to work for several weeks, they have to err on the side of caution. Maybe, if this were a later stage of the season, we would even see López remain active and miss just one start.

However, while the strain is mild, even such minor variations of this injury can flare up or heal more slowly than expected.

 

I analyzed all hamstring strains with which big-league pitchers have missed time since the start of the 2016 season, when Baseball Prospectus's Return to Play Dashboard begins. There have been 126 such documented cases, and because the implications might be supposed to be different for the processes of both recovery and performance, I broke them down by whether the injury was to a hurler's push-off leg (the same one as the hand with which they throw) or their landing leg.

Here's a snapshot of some of those injuries, with the most severe cases filtered out for the purposes of estimating the likely timeline on a return.

I found that injuries to a pitcher's push-off leg (like López's) are notably less common. There were 70 hamstring strains in the landing leg that cost pitchers time over this span, but just 56 to the push-off leg. Strains of the push-off leg tend a bit more toward extremes, which (since this seems to be on the mild end of the spectrum) is good news for López. I found that 46.2% of hurlers who strained their post leg's hamstring came back within 20 days, whereas only 43.9% of those who strained the muscle in their landing legs returned that soon. If the Twins' initial read of this injury is accurate, the prognosis is good. López could well be back by the end of April. On average, though, the non-extreme versions of this injury still tend to keep pitchers on the shelf for 25 days, whichever leg is affected.

Alas, not all the news is good. One pattern that turned up in this analysis is the high rate of re-injury. If a pitcher suffers one hamstring injury, they have about a 25% chance of suffering a second one. The 126 injuries I studied were suffered by 100 pitchers, and 21 of them suffered at least two strains. Once you correct for the hurlers for whom the first strain coincided with or closely preceded the end of their career, it's over a one-in-four shot that a guy who suffers one strain will suffer another. The Twins themselves have dealt with this recently: Both Sonny Gray and Caleb Thielbar suffered multiple hamstring strains during their Twins tenures.

The Twins need their ace starter back as soon as possible, but they'll have to be cautious in bringing him along, to minimize that risk of re-injury and ensure that he's ramped back up when he returns. Expect López to miss something in the neighborhood of three weeks. In the meantime, the good news is that the team has good depth options at Triple-A St. Paul. Once López does assume his place in the rotation again, they could be stronger than ever for briefly having been without him. Unfortunately, from now on, we'll have to keep in mind that there's a meaningful chance of this happening to him again.

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[Patzky]

Thanks for the breakdown. Zebby by merit and schedule seems to be the obvious replacement player. And Paddack just got a little more leeway to get things righted. 

[thelanges5]

Welcome back Zebulon! Not the way I wanted him to get back. Paddack to the pen will open the door long term. 

[Mike Sixel]

Great research. Thanks.

[thelanges5]

Posted by Matthew Leach of mlb.com

Twins game notes list TBA tomorrow, Paddack Saturday, SWR Sunday. If you're doing the math at home, that would probably lead you to deduce that Festa is a pretty strong candidate to take Lopez's roster spot, since he last pitched on Sunday of last weekend and would be on turn for tomorrow night.

[jorgenswest]

3 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Posted by Matthew Leach of mlb.com

Twins game notes list TBA tomorrow, Paddack Saturday, SWR Sunday. If you're doing the math at home, that would probably lead you to deduce that Festa is a pretty strong candidate to take Lopez's roster spot, since he last pitched on Sunday of last weekend and would be on turn for tomorrow night.

The Friday starter will also start Wednesday. Pushing Paddack back to Saturday gives them the opportunity to skip his next start in the rotation with both a Thursday and Monday off. The next time he would be needed is April 26. By then Pablo is eligible to come back.

I am not suggesting this is what the Twins are doing. It is what I would do if they bring up Festa. If Paddack fails again Saturday I would send him to the bullpen and hope Lopez is ready on the 26th.

I would also support pitching Matthews on Sunday instead of Festa Friday but that wouldn’t push Paddack into a spot where he could be skipped.

 

[Blyleven2011]

Just stating ...

With the twins bad luck , it wouldn't surprise me if Pablo has a set back in his rehab or he pulls it again during tge season , last night's injury shouldn't be blamed on tge temperature ...

Just stating , if it wasn't for bad luck , the twins wouldn't have any luck at all ...

why cant we get these players from injuring themselves ..

[h2oface]

He’s not the ace. Just another #2 or 3. 

[tony&rodney]

Festa is pretty good and looked fine in his last start. The Twins think an extra day helps both Paddack and Woods Richardson, so it will be Festa tomorrow instead of Matthews on Sunday. I guess we shall see how this plays out, but we are wondering quite a bit lately. Still haven't heard any notion of why Ober was pulled in the middle of his game today. Is he injured? You do not replace a dominant pitcher after 73 pitches unless there are weather or injury concerns.

Personally it seems like a change may be warranted but then one has to realize it is early April. There is a huge pile of baseball left in 2025. The sluggish start to the long campaign doesn't necessarily require dire actions. One might say there is not any reason to get all crazy and nervous before June. How many teams replace their front office and manager in early April? Still, the jogging on the bases is a definite cringe. Sure hope Detroit brings in some pitchers who throw the Twins batting practice. Maybe we get to see Zebby Matthews next Monday.

[wavedog]

Silver lining to the injury is we get to see Matthews and Festa pitching - not that it makes a difference in the won/loss column - we won't support them with hitting, fielding or relief pitching.  Maybe helps them out in the long run.  

[USAFChief]

Paddack and SWR need a extra day of rest? In April? After (checks BBR) a combined 4 starts and 17 IP?

Holy cow

[Patzky]

6 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Paddack and SWR need a extra day of rest? In April? After (checks BBR) a combined 4 starts and 17 IP?

Holy cow

Piggyback them into one glorious game. Kisses and sheriffs.

[LambchoP]

Festa got LIT UP in his last start. Something like 10 hits in 3+ innings. It is only April, why should our pitchers need an extra day of rest after only two starts? I would rather they stay on the same schedule and when Lopez's turn comes up, give it to Zebby. He is lined up perfectly anyways. I'd also give Paddack one, maybe two more starts to prove he can get it together. If he can't, send him to the pen and give Morris or Festa their shot. I knew we'd be tapping into our highly touted pitching pipeline this year, just didn't know it would be in the first two weeks of the season. Not a good sign.....