The Twins' Slow Start Shows Things Aren't Different Enough

[mluebker]

19 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

We generally can't speak to the value of any coach and how they "good" they are.  We see decisions that may be questionable, but we do not know the reasoning for most of the decisions.

Well, then let’s just get rid of the manager and coaches and let artificial intelligence run the team. It can figure out who’s hot and who’s not and make the line-ups, rotate players through the positions, and base every in-game decision on statistics, analytics, and odds.

[JDubs]

I dunno, I just finished listening to this Twins podcast by these two guys who kept reminding everyone that it's only a small handful of games and it's silly to draw any conclusions from what has happened so far. Can't remember the name, but whoever wrote this should check it out, might help them calm down a bit.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

20 minutes ago, mluebker said:

Well, then let’s just get rid of the manager and coaches and let artificial intelligence run the team. It can figure out who’s hot and who’s not and make the line-ups, rotate players through the positions, and base every in-game decision on statistics, analytics, and odds.

You obviously misunderstand and have never coached before.  X's and O's during game situations are a very miniscule part of a coaches job.  At the professional level, coaches and managers help with game planning, but also sooth egos, balance morale, judge effort, deal with personnel issues and a thousand other things we as fans have absolutely no idea of.

I am not a Rocco apologist, but I am also not naive enough to blame the manager and coaching staff for the slow start when the only information I have is what I see on television or read as a third-hand comment from an unknown clubhouse source.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, Bodie said:

The problem with this Twins team is shockingly simple.  The solution less so.

The vast majority of current Twins are, by execution, simply one-dimenional players.  Not by skills or abilities, but in what they actually do on the field.

Swing from the heels no matter what.  High launch angel, no matter the player and his strengths and weaknesses especially.  "Go full Dave Kingman, so when you hit it it goes far".

Buxton would have a similar average if he bunted every AB.  His actual speed would beat out nearly a hit a game if he literally did nothing else. That doesn't count the times he gets on due to his potential speed - defenders botching makable plays trying to be perfect to get speedy Byron. 

You can count the number of bunt attempts from last season on one hand.  For the team.  Buxton ought to drop a bunt once a series, minimum. Move the IFs in half a step, and the angles move in the hitters favor.  

Twins opponents know that the Twins won't ever bunt, sacrifice or apply consistent pressure on the bases.  And that when they try, they will look like little leaguers in the execution. 

 

Ask Terry Fracona which iteration of the Twins is easier- the Kingman-esque slugging Twins of last year (as a specific example) or an earlier version where any player might be called on to drop down a bunt.  Or run the bases both aggressively and intelligently.

 

Instead we take a Roy Smalley type player (good/plus contact, "good gap power" and acceptable (but consistent) defense) and focus on power to the exclusion of anything else.  Instead of a .270 13 80 line, we are treated to a .240ish 18 65 line and little to no effort on defense or baserunning.  "We maximized his power." will be the rallying cry, while ignoring the fact that if that player doesn't hit a homer in that game he has almost zero chance of providing any positive at all.  Why?  Because it has never been emphasized in their pro career that there is more than one way to skin that proverbial cat.

The Twins approach to said cat has been very simple - sledgehammer to the head.  Very effective when done right.  Very messy and unappealing when botched!

This isn't going to be fixed with a new hitting coach hyping a new and improved cat skinning method. The guys coming up (not to mention those already here) have been immersed in the "max effort swing = good results" ethos their entire career.  It got 'em to the Bigs.  Why change now, especially if a .170 average with a homer every 10 games will get you regular playing time. (see Joey whose name we shall not mention)

That’s a league-wide trend

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/sports/bunt-hits-declining-mlb-rcna157571

[Bodie]

3 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

That’s a league-wide trend

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/sports/bunt-hits-declining-mlb-rcna157571

Mom always told me "everybody does it" is not an excuse.  Only laziness.

[theBOMisthebomb]

On 4/5/2025 at 2:50 PM, PatPfund said:

I get it. Long drab offseason, ST injuries, slow start. Worse there is some history to show fears "are" justified. Except they are just that, fears. Fears over-extrapolating a slow start.

Things to maybe note as well: After 6 games, the Twins were tied for first place. Only one SP has had a second chance to show his skill, and Lopez dominated in that show. Cleveland also had a (longer) rough start last year and won the division. I didn't see the second Saints game last night, but Festa, Matthews, and Morris all threw five shutout efficient innings to start the year.

This team has issues, but it also has two platinum glove starters, two cheap pickups who look great (yeah, I was a Bader hater, but so far...), top young talent at AAA, and the depth to fix pitching woes if they occur. Breath deep, it's a long season.

Let's check in at Memorial Day and see how things look. Right now, it's too soon. 

[USAFChief]

It'd be nice if the starters were prepared to start the season, for one thing. 

Three series, only one starter has thrown a pitch in the 6th inning. Only one start that even reached 90 pitches. 

April is not supposed to be a continuation of spring training. 

They (and most of baseball, to be fair) continues to ask less and less of starters. 

And, low and behold, they get exactly that. Less and less.

[LA Vikes Fan]

On 4/5/2025 at 3:41 PM, RpR said:

France, Bader, and Gasper, are NOT the problem.

Slight nit - Gaspar and France aren't THE problem but they are part of THE problem. Both went 0-2 again today and are hitting .111 and .188 respectively. Yes, you can add in Miranda and the slow starts from Correa and Buxton.  The difference is those 3 have track records of production in the recent past. Gaspar and France do not. Bader is meh at the plate, but that's exactly what we expected from him - very good defense, meh offense. 

Time to shift things up for the trip. Gaspar DFA/Option, Keaschall up. Julien goes to 1B/DH full time including starting in the field over France. Keaschall plays 2B 5 days a week until he either wins the job or shows us he needs to go back. At least a 2 week run.  At this point, no reason not to give it a try.  

[RpR]

34 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Slight nit - Gaspar and France aren't THE problem but they are part of THE problem. Both went 0-2 again today and are hitting .111 and .188 respectively. Yes, you can add in Miranda and the slow starts from Correa and Buxton.  The difference is those 3 have track records of production in the recent past. Gaspar and France do not. Bader is meh at the plate, but that's exactly what we expected from him - very good defense, meh offense. 

Time to shift things up for the trip. Gaspar DFA/Option, Keaschall up. Julien goes to 1B/DH full time including starting in the field over France. Keaschall plays 2B 5 days a week until he either wins the job or shows us he needs to go back. At least a 2 week run.  At this point, no reason not to give it a try.  

Hmmm, the Twins are 3-6, so this is a good time to see if another rookie stinks. LOL,

Bader has the highest OPS on the team, followed by Wallner and Castro, so if he is meh, the rest of the team is just plain awful.

Buxton has shown spells of being really bad recently also.

Castro, never was a good fielder and it really shows this year.

[KirbyDome89]

On 4/5/2025 at 2:22 PM, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Let me get this straight:
Batters choose when to swing and what they swing at
Pitchers have to execute on the mound
Rocco is to blame.

Nobody here has enough information to really say if Rocco is the right fit for this team. We generally can't speak to the value of any coach and how they "good" they are.  We see decisions that may be questionable, but we do not know the reasoning for most of the decisions.

How about we start holding the players accountable instead of blaming everyone but the players?

Hasn't it always started there? Is anybody actually making the argument that this is some insanely talented club that's being sabotaged by the manager? 

Our ignorance of the minutiae with regard to decision making doesn't preclude anyone from constructing an informed opinion. The results speak for themselves. Also, Rocco and FO have every opportunity to explain their reasoning. 

I think the issue(s) start above Rocco Baldelli's head. I feel the same way about him as I did about the last few hitting coaches, or strength coaches, or pitching coaches, ect; these guys are deck chairs on the Titanic. This club has put together a few good months of baseball in the last 4+ seasons during what's supposed to be a window of contention. I think it's ok to start questioning whether the poor performance on the field is a symptom of a larger issue. 

[KirbyDome89]

On 4/5/2025 at 11:10 AM, Woof Bronzer said:

What's more realistic, that this start isn't reflective of the team's potential...or that 2023 was the outlier, and the 21, 22, 24, and 25 versions are more representative of an organization, which, friendly reminder, has one ALDS victory in 35 years?  

  

2023 is the outlier in the sense that they made the postseason and won a couple games, but they were painfully mediocre/bad for a lot of that season. That fact gets papered over because of the aforementioned Ws, but that 2023 squad was below .500 and had their brains beat in heading into the AS break. They were essentially rescued by some young players breaking out and the rest of the ALC being even more s*** than usual. That team doesn't sniff the postseason in either the East or West division that year.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

12 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Hasn't it always started there? Is anybody actually making the argument that this is some insanely talented club that's being sabotaged by the manager? 

Our ignorance of the minutiae with regard to decision making doesn't preclude anyone from constructing an informed opinion. The results speak for themselves. Also, Rocco and FO have every opportunity to explain their reasoning. 

I think the issue(s) start above Rocco Baldelli's head. I feel the same way about him as I did about the last few hitting coaches, or strength coaches, or pitching coaches, ect; these guys are deck chairs on the Titanic. This club has put together a few good months of baseball in the last 4+ seasons during what's supposed to be a window of contention. I think it's ok to start questioning whether the poor performance on the field is a symptom of a larger issue. 

If you read through the comments on these articles, I would bet the comments call out Rocco/FO over the players at least 2:1. Many people are blaming the Rocco for the slow start without discussing how the players are failing in their given opportunities.

If you believe any Coach is going to publicly throw players under the bus, you too do not understand what it is to manage or coach a team. That is why it is such big news when a manager publicly calls out a player. Good or bad, managers and coaches are under no obligation to publicize their reasoning.  To do so would potentially give away their decision making process and give advantages to other teams.

I have no problem with people forming opinions.  Heck, I am doing it right now. But constantly blaming Rocco without all the information... I don't think I would call those informed opinions.

Also, if I am not mistaken, this team has either met or exceeded preseason win expectations almost every year with Rocco.  Considering the amount of injuries the Twins have had, there is something to be said about that.

IMO, the larger issue you are referring to is ownership. Their unwillingness to push this team to the next level is having a trickle-down effect on the entire organization. You could argue the FO is a main issue here too, except we do not know how many things they are trying to do get shot down.

[Linus]

They brought back essentially the same lineup so it can’t be shocking that things look the same. I’m assuming the players are trying their best. Perhaps they just aren’t good enough. If that is true then this is on Falvey and ownership. 

[USAFChief]

49 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

If you read through the comments on these articles, I would bet the comments call out Rocco/FO over the players at least 2:1. Many people are blaming the Rocco for the slow start without discussing how the players are failing in their given opportunities.

People discuss player's shortcomings every game. And players who have good games. Every day. 

But it's generally different players each game. Nobody gets 3 hits every day, or makes game changing errors every day. No pitcher gets everyone out every time they pitch.

And there are talent limitations that limit player performance 

But a manager doing the same things day after day after day? Making the.same flawed decisions? It took till THIS YEAR of Rocco's managing career for him to expect players to take BP. Taking infield is STILL optional.

Why wouldn't that management get called out every day,  when its shown to be flawed every day? 

 

[Woof Bronzer]

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

If you read through the comments on these articles, I would bet the comments call out Rocco/FO over the players at least 2:1. Many people are blaming the Rocco for the slow start without discussing how the players are failing in their given opportunities.

Personally I blame Rocco, the FO, ownership, and the players.  A "total system failure" if you will.  

However, I'd encourage you to consider that maybe these players are simply not very good, and are in fact performing to their abilities.  

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

If you read through the comments on these articles, I would bet the comments call out Rocco/FO over the players at least 2:1. Many people are blaming the Rocco for the slow start without discussing how the players are failing in their given opportunities.

If you believe any Coach is going to publicly throw players under the bus, you too do not understand what it is to manage or coach a team. That is why it is such big news when a manager publicly calls out a player. Good or bad, managers and coaches are under no obligation to publicize their reasoning.  To do so would potentially give away their decision making process and give advantages to other teams.

I have no problem with people forming opinions.  Heck, I am doing it right now. But constantly blaming Rocco without all the information... I don't think I would call those informed opinions.

Also, if I am not mistaken, this team has either met or exceeded preseason win expectations almost every year with Rocco.  Considering the amount of injuries the Twins have had, there is something to be said about that.

IMO, the larger issue you are referring to is ownership. Their unwillingness to push this team to the next level is having a trickle-down effect on the entire organization. You could argue the FO is a main issue here too, except we do not know how many things they are trying to do get shot down.

It has always started with the players, they're first in the line of fire. The Rocco/FO chatter has picked up as the on field product has underwhelmed over time. 

I'm not asking Rocco to throw anybody under the bus. You can provide reasoning without doing that. You're right Rocco or Falvey are under no obligation to discuss decision making, but you're going to lose the benefit of the doubt faster if you're leaving decision making open to interpretation. As far as playing things close to the vest is concerned, we watched opposing teams goad the Twins into removing better hitters midway through numerous games simply by bringing in a LHP. It was possibly the most obvious move in baseball. I don't think the Twins are protecting some master strategy by not giving a reason for in game decision making. 

We'll never have all the info. That's an impossible bar to clear. IMO you don't need every tidbit to make a solid case. 

They've missed the postseason 3 of the last 4 years in what is supposed to be a contention window. The one year they made it, they borderline backed their way in. I have no clue what projection systems they did or did not beat/match, and to be honest, I don't give a f*** about preseason win expectations. They mean nothing. 

I'd rather see this FO go than Rocco if I only was allowed to choose one. Ownership is their own problem, but they don't meddle in the baseball ops department. 

[Battle ur tail off]

On 4/5/2025 at 6:45 AM, John Bonnes said:

 

That’s the question the team and its fans are wrestling with: were we wrong about this team?

---

 

 

No, I think most rational people expected the Twins to struggle this year. Media maybe pegged them as being a favorite in the Central and they might be. But fan attendance and apathy tells you that most people didn't think they would be very good this year. So far, they are right. 

[TheLeviathan]

The manager discussion on this site is not worth having.  It might be worth having on a larger scale and I respect how people ultimately feel on the issue.  I think MLB managers are mostly irrelevant and I don't see Baldelli as even 20% of the issue.  Others feel different....fine.  As the last season or so has indicated, rationality has left that conversation here at TD.  I don't see why anyone continues to grouse or pick a fight that no one wants to have in any kind of an interesting, insightful, or conversational way.  Let that horse die.

However, I don't know how anyone - feelings on Rocco aside - can look at the available guys we have to play in the field every day and think we have a chance.  This is simply not a contending group of position players.  They don't hit well enough to offset their mediocre defense and plodding foot speed.  They don't do anything particularly well with any consistency.  

Who's to blame?  I think the FO definitely has some blame there considering the degree to which they've failed to develop well-rounded guys.  Draft picks haven't resulted in dynamic players.

But.....man, it's hard to do anything other than put this on ownership.  They squeezed the payroll to Ty France levels and we're getting what we paid for.  Until they go, my optimism is just sapped.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Agree with you on the quality of the lineup. This just isn't a very good team on offense or, outside of Correa, Buxton, and Bader, on defense. We have a group of guys who should be hitting 5, 6 or 7, hitting 2, 3 and 4.  Maybe Lewis would help if he's really the 2023 Lewis, not the second half of 2024 Lewis. Maybe Wallner will OPS over .900 and be moved to the middle of the lineup. Maybe France becomes his 2021 or even 2022 self again (or maybe I can meet and bed a supermodel).  

It's tough because it's hard to see from where the needed offensive improvement is going to come from. I know it's very early. It's just hard to see any light at the end of this tunnel. Hope I'm wrong. 

[Woof Bronzer]

On 4/6/2025 at 2:58 PM, Bodie said:

Mom always told me "everybody does it" is not an excuse.  Only laziness.

Analytics used to be about finding and exploiting competitive advantages.  Now it's about doing the same thing as everyone else.  

[The Great Hambino]

Poking around BBRef to see how they're stacking up against the rest of the AL.

Not surprisingly, they have the lowest oWAR in the league.  They're also last or next-to-last in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS+ (they're only third-last in OPS).  They also have only one more HR and one more BB than the last place teams, but ties technically keep them out of the bottom two.

The only major category where they're even top half?  K avoidance, where they vault all the way up to 7th.  

This profiles less like a team swinging for the fences and more like a team selling out for contact of any kind regardless of quality.  

 

A couple other things I noticed:

The Twins could put out up a full lineup currently playing at replacement level or worse

3 of their top 11 in WAR (McCaughan, Dobnak, Blewett) are riding the DFA merry-go-round

I know the Twins hitters have been bad, but what the hell is going on in Arlington?

[mluebker]

On 4/6/2025 at 9:01 AM, Fire Dan Gladden said:

You obviously misunderstand and have never coached before. 

First off, you missed that I was being sarcastic. Second, I coached my three kids for 13 years and ran a rec league up in Michigan for five. So don’t make the mistake of assuming something just because you and I look at the same set of circumstances and reach different conclusions, even ones intending to be exaggerated.