Next Man Up: Silver Linings of Some Bad End-of-Camp Injury News for the Twins

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

[Narrator voice] We hit a ground ball right to the spot where both the 5'11" first baseman playing second base and the 6'6" outfielder playing shortstop could get to it. Let's see what happens.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Julien out-hit Castro, Lee, and Martin in spring training. The only 2B contender he didn't out-perform in spring training was Gasper. (not counting Keaschall, since he's still on the recovery train) Spring training stats aren't all that meaningful, but Julien did fine. He did look nervous and indecisive defensively, however.

If you had read the 1st part, that you omitted. Everybody'd see that Julien was terrible defensively it doesn't matter if he was a little bit better offensively if he's a liability defensively. & as I stated before that defense is very important if you ignore it (especially up the middle) it'll come & bite you in the end. it cost NYY the WS.

[tony&rodney]

Just now, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

the 6'6" outfielder playing shortstop

Brandon Winokur can play centerfield, true, but he is the second best shortstop (behind Carlos Correa) in the Twins system. Winokur has a ways to go with his bat but his athleticism is off the charts and he has the highest ceiling of any player in the organization. He is very inexperienced at this point in time but one to watch.

Announcers from opposing teams have raved about his quickness, smooth fielding, and huge arm in 3 Spring Training games this March.

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, Doctor Gast said:

If you had read the 1st part, that you omitted. Everybody'd see that Julien was terrible defensively it doesn't matter if he was a little bit better offensively if he's a liability defensively. & as I stated before that defense is very important. it cost NYY the WS.

Crusading doesn't change much in reality. While Julien is a poor defender, he is much better than Gasper and has better range than either Castro or Lee despite Eddie's bobbles and poor throws. If he was as bad as you suggest the Twins should have released him in the offseason. The Twins Plan is not focused on defense. We don't get a say in that. Trying to promote one bad defender above another is futile.

[Fatbat]

I just read that Gasper and Kiersey are making the opening day roster!! I'm definitely rooting for these two underdogs!! Lets find that last RP for the roster and get to kickin butt in St. Louis!!

[jorgenswest]

33 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Brandon Winokur can play centerfield, true, but he is the second best shortstop (behind Carlos Correa) in the Twins system. Winokur has a ways to go with his bat but his athleticism is off the charts and he has the highest ceiling of any player in the organization. He is very inexperienced at this point in time but one to watch.

Announcers from opposing teams have raved about his quickness, smooth fielding, and huge arm in 3 Spring Training games this March.

It was also his ball with his momentum going towards first. Gasper shouldn’t have been there.

[Doctor Gast]

32 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Crusading doesn't change much in reality. While Julien is a poor defender, he is much better than Gasper and has better range than either Castro or Lee despite Eddie's bobbles and poor throws. If he was as bad as you suggest the Twins should have released him in the offseason. The Twins Plan is not focused on defense. We don't get a say in that. Trying to promote one bad defender above another is futile.

I don't trust defensive stats dealing with range because I see too many GBs bleed through the INF when Julien is playing 2B. There are many things that the Twins should have done with players that they emotionally select but don't. I've advocated to trade Julien the last 2 yrs. but that won't happen so my only hope is moving Julien to 1B. If you think Julien is better than Castro & Lee, IMO even the Twins would start both ahead of Julien. But both Lee & Castro are not stable 2Bmen because they move around a lot & Lee's chronic back. Gasper hasn't impressed me at 2B but I haven't seen enough from him to say if he's better or worse than Julien.  

My main point isn't about if Julien is better or worse than those you mentioned we need a better 2Bman than Julien. But we need a good stable 2Bman & IMO is that Martin could be that guy if given a proper chance & I'm not suggesting 4+ years that they've given Julien. 

Yes, it seems futile to crusade about things with plenty of push back. I crusaded for years for the Twins to give up on Cave to be Buck's CF sub. To move Polanco off SS but eventually they did it.

[Old Twins Hat]

I would not read too much into the opening day roster.

I think, for example, they sent Martin down so that he could play every day, starting next week?, rather than being a late-inning defensive replacement/pinch-hitter/runner.

One more injury on the infield and Martin will be playing full-time 2B at AAA before rejoining the parent club.

[Mike Sixel]

when is Kiersey even going to play? I guess as a PH for Bader if Larnarch or Wallner is DHing? A late inning defensive sub? It's hard to see him playing much, but I'm super happy he's getting a shot!

[tony&rodney]

19 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I don't trust defensive stats dealing with range

My sources include zero defensive statistics. Julien is not a good fielder, period. The others are not either.

[Linus]

21 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

It was also his ball with his momentum going towards first. Gasper shouldn’t have been there.

Yea my immediate reaction was please don’t hurt Winokur.  Kid has a chance to be special.

[HerbieFan]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Naturally, you must also be aware that 1B is even worse and LF/RF are also below average. I guess the Twins could use the backup CF in a corner OF spot.

Given that a first baseman is involved in more plays than elsewhere in the infield, we can rest easy knowing that 2B is not the worst problem in the infield. Brooks Lee is the best option at 3B but Miranda is not worse than Lewis at 3B. Rest easy, stay calm, everything is under control.

Was thinking more of Julien trying to play 2B.  Miranda will be...ok(ish)

[tony&rodney]

5 minutes ago, HerbieFan said:

Was thinking more of Julien trying to play 2B.  Miranda will be...ok(ish)

Rest easy on Julien because that is all the Twins have. If Julien doesn't hit he is off the team and the Twins finish fourth. Unless a healed Keaschall or Eeles steps in magically. I see Julien as among the least of the Twins concerns, probably down around #10 of possible issues.

[bean5302]

59 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I don't trust defensive stats dealing with range because I see too many GBs bleed through the INF when Julien is playing 2B...

The reason why metrics are used is because the eye test can be emotionally biased and based on a limited number of plays vs. analyzing all of the plays.

Not saying Julien is a good fielder, btw. I've seen him make terrible plays and impressive plays. I honestly don't believe the Twins' coaches are capable of developing plus defensive players. 

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

If you had read the 1st part, that you omitted. Everybody'd see that Julien was terrible defensively it doesn't matter if he was a little bit better offensively if he's a liability defensively. & as I stated before that defense is very important if you ignore it (especially up the middle) it'll come & bite you in the end. it cost NYY the WS.

I read the first part, but it wasn't relevant to my comment which was about his offense. He wasn't a disappointment offensively in spring training, which you were using to pile on to his less than great defense. He's not a great defender. This is not news.

Defense is important, but it's not more important than offense. The Twins have strong defenders up the middle at SS, C, and CF; while it would be preferable to have a strong defender at 2B as well (and I think Lee would be), I don't think this lineup can afford to have a bad hitter at 2B right now.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

The reason why metrics are used is because the eye test can be emotionally biased and based on a limited number of plays vs. analyzing all of the plays.

Not saying Julien is a good fielder, btw. I've seen him make terrible plays and impressive plays. I honestly don't believe the Twins' coaches are capable of developing plus defensive players. 

I don’t think it is a matter is developing. I think it is a matter of priorities. They give a lot more weight to the hit tool. When you draft a college second baseman or corner player the chance of that player being an average defender somewhere in the major leagues is pretty small. The best they might hope is that college 2B/3B like Julien can progress to passable.

[jorgenswest]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

when is Kiersey even going to play? I guess as a PH for Bader if Larnarch or Wallner is DHing? A late inning defensive sub? It's hard to see him playing much, but I'm super happy he's getting a shot!

I would start him once or twice a series against right handed pitching. Play him in LF and DH Larnach or give Buxton a day of rest. With Larnach at DH put Castro is on the bench or at 3B with France or Miranda getting a day off against a right handed pitcher. All it takes is Castro, France and Miranda getting a day off once a week against right handed pitching and he has three starts.

I am not trying to guess what the Twins will do. We will find out soon enough.

[Fatbat]

My take on 2B is that we are perpetually drafting SS’s, trading for prospects or signing FA’s in the hope that one turns out to be an allstar 2B man.  Its been decades of this and we have never really hit on one.  The next man up thru the draft is Luke Keaschall. The immediate placeholders are Julien/Gasper. Martin already has been sent to AAA to learn more OF. 
The long play this season is LK. He has more solid potential in all 5 tools than any other current infielder except C4 but we know he won’t be playing 2B. Bet on LK. He is going to be fun to watch. 

[bean5302]

29 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I don’t think it is a matter is developing. I think it is a matter of priorities. They give a lot more weight to the hit tool. When you draft a college second baseman or corner player the chance of that player being an average defender somewhere in the major leagues is pretty small. The best they might hope is that college 2B/3B like Julien can progress to passable.

If we look at the defensive philosophy, deployment and drafting/development, it's hard to find an infield prospect who doesn't boot balls around like they're playing soccer. It's practically become a hallmark of Twins defenders to have lousy fielding percentages, even if they have the athletic tools.

Is it really a matter of priorities when guys can't throw or catch balls?

[jmlease1]

20 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

My take on 2B is that we are perpetually drafting SS’s, trading for prospects or signing FA’s in the hope that one turns out to be an allstar 2B man.  Its been decades of this and we have never really hit on one.  The next man up thru the draft is Luke Keaschall. The immediate placeholders are Julien/Gasper. Martin already has been sent to AAA to learn more OF. 

Worked out ok with Dozier. (who should have been a multiple all-star player, but had the misfortune to be playing in the same league as Cano and Altuve in their primes) Drafted as a SS, didn't become a primary 2B until he was in MLB.

It'd be great if we could lock someone into the job for 5-7 years again a la Knoblauch/Dozier, but not easy to find those guys.

[jorgenswest]

10 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

If we look at the defensive philosophy, deployment and drafting/development, it's hard to find an infield prospect who doesn't boot balls around like they're playing soccer. It's practically become a hallmark of Twins defenders to have lousy fielding percentages, even if they have the athletic tools.

Is it really a matter of priorities when guys can't throw or catch balls?

I object to extremity of your last question but I do think it is a matter of priorities and they could have their priorities in the right place. 

I am not sure anyone is developing Julien or Steer or Martin or Encarnacion-Strand into anything more than a passable defender. How often do college second and third basemen have the tools to be an average or plus defender in the majors? I also think they showed how much they prioritize defense when they traded Miller to the Dodgers.

I would assume those priorities also bleed into where they spend their time working with the players also.

[tony&rodney]

A legitimate question would be - How many ground balls do Twins infielders take each day in ST? How many each week during the season? 

The same question could be asked on pop ups and fly balls. 

Fairness would require an answer to the same questions from other MLB teams?

However, I don't believe a player like Carlos Correa (or Byron Buxton) needs the same number of repetitions as all of the other Twins position players.

[Fatbat]

54 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Worked out ok with Dozier. (who should have been a multiple all-star player, but had the misfortune to be playing in the same league as Cano and Altuve in their primes) Drafted as a SS, didn't become a primary 2B until he was in MLB.

It'd be great if we could lock someone into the job for 5-7 years again a la Knoblauch/Dozier, but not easy to find those guys.

Yup. 6.5 years of Dozier was not enough. Those 2 are really the only Twins to hold down 2B for a lengthy time. I miss that. 

[jmlease1]

13 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Yup. 6.5 years of Dozier was not enough. Those 2 are really the only Twins to hold down 2B for a lengthy time. I miss that. 

pretty much for the past 30 years. several years of Rivas (who was bad), several years of Casilla (who was a good utility guy miscast as a starter), but only Dozier has put up good results over several seasons since Knoblauch and locked the position down. but this isn't unusual, and until Correa came in we had as much if not more trouble filling SS on a consistent basis.

It would be great if someone could seize the job and not let go. Julien took a hold of it and let it slip through his fingers. Lee hasn't been healthy enough to claim it as his own...yet. Maybe Keaschall will make it impossible to keep him out as he's able to to throw and field again...maybe. but it would be great to pencil in the same guy for the next 4-5 years.

[shimrod]

22 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Varland will suddenly be the new Liam Hendrix

You can't be the next Liam Hendrix while with the Twins. Once Varland is traded or released he will be eligible to become the next Liam Hendrix.

[shimrod]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I honestly don't believe the Twins' coaches are capable of developing plus defensive players. 

Twins defense has steadily gone downhill since TK left. It aggravated me during the Gardenhire years when Twins announcers praised the Twins defense as elite and described every defensive error or baserunning blunder as a one-off. Multiple times a game in many cases. 

Rocco has brought us to new depths, but the lack of minor league development is the true culprit. If there was any emphasis on defense in our development process at least one prospect would be able to play it, that's just the law of averages. 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Yup. 6.5 years of Dozier was not enough. Those 2 are really the only Twins to hold down 2B for a lengthy time. I miss that. 

Longest tenures:

Rod Carew 12 years - Brian Dozier and Chuck Knobloch - Alex Casilla  7 years - Rob Wilfong 6 years - Bernie Allen 5 years.

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Maybe Keaschall will make it impossible to keep him out as he's able to to throw and field again...maybe. but it would be great to pencil in the same guy for the next 4-5 years.

That would be awesome! Maybe we will get lucky and he will end up like one of the greatest twin (Rod Carew) wishful thinking!

 Was just catching some highlights from todays game…Samuel Perez, a 25 yo RP for the CR Kernals might be a guy to watch this season. He has some stuff and might be more than just pipeline filler.

[Danchat]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I am not sure anyone is developing Julien or Steer or Martin or Encarnacion-Strand into anything more than a passable defender.

I think this is the root of the problem... they're drafting bat-first players and their plan to develop their defensive skills are questionable. Then they reach the majors and it's then we figure out, oh hey, Julien can't handle 2B or turns out Steer isn't gonna be a 3B, so on and so on.