5 Reasons to Trust Jhoan Durán as Minnesota Twins Closer in 2025

[Cody Christie]

The Twins' closer dealt with a drop in temperature on his signature heat last season, impacting his overall performance. Entering 2025, though, fans should still have confidence in him.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

In Jhoan Durán, the Minnesota Twins have one of baseball's most electric relievers. While some might have concerns after his 2024 campaign, there are plenty of reasons to believe he will be just fine in 2025. FanGraphs projects the Twins' bullpen to be the best in baseball, and Durán remains a key piece of that equation. Let's consider why fans shouldn't worry about the Twins' flamethrowing closer this season.

1. Underlying Metrics Suggest He Was Unlucky
Durán's 3.64 ERA last season was higher than expected, but a deeper dive suggests he may have been the victim of some bad luck. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) sat at 2.85, indicating that his ERA might have been inflated due to factors beyond his control, such as defensive miscues or unfortunate batted-ball luck. Advanced metrics like FIP can often provide a clearer picture of a pitcher's actual effectiveness, and they can point to better days ahead in Durán's case.

“The numbers I didn’t like too much,” Duran told reporters about his 2024 season. “I didn’t have a really good offseason because when I was doing my prep work for the regular season, I’d go to the Dominican for two weeks and go back and forth. I want to be the same pitcher I was in 2023.”

2. Elite Projections for 2025
Even with a perceived dip in performance last year, projection systems remain high on Durán. The ZiPS model projects him to be tied with Cleveland’s Emmanuel Clase for the league lead among relievers with 1.4 fWAR, while FanGraphs's Depth Charts list him as the second-best reliever in baseball with a 1.9 WAR. The Athletics’ Mason Miller is the only reliever to rank ahead of him. These projections consider his track record and his dominant stuff, reinforcing that he remains one of the game's premier bullpen arms.

3. Velocity Is Trending Up
One of the biggest talking points about Durán last season was a slight dip in velocity. While he averaged 102 mph on his fastball as recently as 2023, last year saw him fight to reach triple digits most of the time. However, this spring, he's already been clocked at 101 mph, signaling that his velocity is rebounding. Given his overall arsenal, he doesn’t need to sit at 102+ mph every outing to be dominant, but knowing that his velocity remains elite is reassuring.

"I focus more on my mechanics and my pitches' movement," Duran said recently. "I don't need to throw really hard right now. Maybe in the [regular season] I throw harder, or maybe not."

4. A Full Year of Adjustments
Last season, Durán was adjusting to a new pitch mix on the fly. He should be more comfortable and confident in 2025, with an entire offseason to refine his approach. His best pitch isn't his fastball, and as he continues to rely on his devastating splinker and curveball, hitters will have an even more challenging time making solid contact. Now that he has had a season to settle into this version of himself, expect a more consistent and refined performance.

5. Continued Pitch Development
One intriguing storyline this spring is Durán’s work on developing a truer changeup. While it may not become a primary offering, having another weapon in his arsenal can only help keep hitters off-balance. His splinker and curveball were already seeing increased usage last season, and if he can mix in a changeup periodically, it could give him another advantage late in games.

Every reliever has ups and downs, especially when dealing with small samples. The 2024 season wasn’t a flawless season for Jhoan Durán. However, the signs point to a bounce-back year. With elite projections, improving velocity, and another year of refining his pitch mix, he’s poised to remain one of baseball’s best relievers in 2025. Twins fans should feel confident that when the game is on the line, Durán will be ready to deliver.

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Are the projections correct about Durán? Can he return to his previous form? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Karbo]

As I remember he was hurt at the beginning of the season last year and probably didn't get the work and conditioning he should have,

[LambchoP]

Duran will be just fine. He was hurt last year and was misused a bit by Rocco. Letting him go out there and let it fly in save situations will have Duran back to all-star form in no time. It was cool to see him hitting 101-102 in a spring game the other day, he looked real sharp 

[Guest]

Location, location, location.  Duran ran into issues last year when he started his breaking pitches too far up in the zone.  Fix this and it's 2023 all over again.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Good, fact-based, optimistic article. Thanks Cody.

[Fatbat]

Duran will have his best season in’25. You heard it here second.

[TopGunn#22]

I have no doubts what so ever in Duran's STUFF.  Where my confidence wavers is in how Rocco UESES HIM.  Rocco likes to use Duran in the 7th inning in a high leverage situation.  I'm a big believer in using your closer as a CLOSER.  Clase does not come in in the 7th.  Nor does Josh Hader, Edwin Diaz, Ryan Helsley etc...

Someone on TD wrote last year in an article examining Duran's struggles, that the data clearly shows Duran is lights out when he's closing a game.  Not so much when pitching in the 7th inning.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

Location, location, location.  Duran ran into issues last year when he started his breaking pitches too far up in the zone.  Fix this and it's 2023 all over again.

One more location to add....which inning Rocco decides to use him.

[Danchat]

Feels like Twins Daily is always due for an article titled like this to jinx something later in the day a few times every year. 😉

[mike8791]

Cody, do you even look at ST games?  50-50 chance this guy is on a downhill slide.  Stats matter, but results matter more in the real world!

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, mike8791 said:

Cody, do you even look at ST games?  50-50 chance this guy is on a downhill slide.  Stats matter, but results matter more in the real world!

Couldn't throw strikes

[thelanges5]

Durán working on a new pitch?

 

[h2oface]

I trust that didn't age well. He even came in in the 9th with a save opportunity!

Granted, he left with the bases loaded and one out after giving up a lead off ground out, a walk, single, and was pulled after an 11 pitch walk and 24 pitches total. Duran didn't let any runs score on his watch, right? Bosiokovic (who?) bailed him out by immediately by giving up a walk and a Jeferson Morales error let the other two runners in. Even unknown ST bullpen pitchers are good at letting inherited runners score! 4-5 today with Varland letting 1 of 2 in. The thing that has happened to Duran is that batters don't swing and miss like they used to. Even last year. The 11 pitch walk had 6 fouls by Thayron Liranzo (who?). With a first pitch called strike, he touched every pitch he swung at. No swing and miss stuff.

[Blyleven2011]

As stated by other post , what concerns me is how Rocco utilizes Duran  , we are suppose to have high leverage arms to put the fire out in crucial situations  , Duran definitely faired better as a ninth inning save situation pitcher  , not in the 7th or 8th inning against the other teams best hitters ..

[Whitey333]

Great article.  Very upbeat and positive.  Twins will need a much better season from Duran than last season.  I too believe Rocco needs to use him better.  The only part of your article I don't agree with is trying to blame hus down season in part to bad luck.  He lost 9 games in relief.  His ERA was 3.64.  Your " closer" has to do better.  Using the new analytics to twist a poor season into bad luck is not helpful.  He didn't pitch well last season.  It happens.  I hope he is back on top in 2025

[Vanimal46]

18 hours ago, Danchat said:

Feels like Twins Daily is always due for an article titled like this to jinx something later in the day a few times every year. 😉

That didn’t take long!

[jkcarew]

I’m perfectly fine with the lost 2-3 mph off the fastball if it resulted in better command of the pitch. It hasn’t. Not so far.

Meanwhile, despite the “stuff”, he’s never commanded his off-speed pitches consistently well, either.

So….I guess we’ll see where this goes.