The Baseball Tragedy of Matt Canterino

[Cody Christie]

In recent history, the righty has been one of the Twins' most electric pitching prospects. However, injuries have plagued his professional career, and it seems increasingly unlikely that there's a happy ending at the end of this prolonged trial.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

When the Minnesota Twins selected Matt Canterino in the second round of the 2019 MLB Draft, they envisioned a pitcher who could ascend rapidly through their system. However, Canterino's professional journey has been riddled with injuries, casting a shadow over his once-promising career.

Canterino's tenure at Rice University showcased his immense talent. He earned Conference USA Pitcher of the Year honors as a junior, boasting a 6-5 record with a 2.81 ERA and 121 strikeouts over 99 1/3 innings. However, Rice has garnered a reputation for heavy pitcher workloads, raising concerns about potential overuse. This pattern isn't new to the Twins, with former Rice standout Tyler Duffey, who faced similar risks tied to the program's approach. Canterino averaged 25 batters faced per start, even with a high strikeout rate and occasional bouts with shaky control. He pitched one complete game, twice more went eight innings, and often topped seven innings in starts in highly competitive environments, working past 100 pitches multiple times in single appearances at tender ages.

Flashes of Brilliance
The Twins quickly got Canterino acclimated to professional action after he signed by sending him to the Gulf Coast League Twins for two appearances before being moved to Cedar Rapids. In 25 innings, he combined for a 1.44 ERA with a 0.64 WHIP and 33.3 K%. After the pandemic canceled the 2020 minor-league season, Minnesota sent him back to Cedar Rapids, where he continued to put up video game numbers. In 23 innings, he posted a 0.78 ERA with a 0.61 WHIP and a 53.6 K%. Unfortunately, a right elbow strain ended his season.

In 2022, the Twins tried to manage Canterino’s workload, while also pushing him to Double-A. In 37 innings, he posted a 1.95 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and 34.8 K%. A nagging forearm injury sent him to the IL, and he was eventually forced to undergo Tommy John surgery in August. He would miss the entire 2023 season while recovering. The Twins were hoping for a healthy Canterino entering last spring, especially since the team added him to the 40-man roster. Instead, a rotator cuff strain suffered in spring training cost him the entire season. 

There were positive reports on Canterino’s stuff this spring, with the Twins believing he could “reclaim himself on the field.” The plan was for him to move to the bullpen so the club could better manage his workload. Unfortunately, the injury bug hit him again. 

“Last year, he had a fairly moderate right [subscapular] strain,” Twins trainer Nick Paparesta said. “This year it is a little bit of a milder subscap, with a more moderate strain of his teres major and latissimus dorsi, which seems to be the soup du jour if you read any MLB news on injuries lately with pitchers.”

Canterino is due to consult with surgeon Dr. Keith Meister this week. There's a very real chance that he'll require another season-ending operation.

The Road Ahead
The Twins had planned to transition Canterino to the bullpen to manage his workload and mitigate injury risks. This transition could make it easier for him to return to the mound this season, if the three-piece injury to his shoulder doesn't result in an operation. However, this latest setback casts further doubt on his future in the game, of which there was already plenty. While his talent is undeniable, the accumulation of injuries raises could eventually make it impossible to return to a professional-caliber level.

Even in the most optimistic scenario, Canterino is likely looking at another extended absence. Despite logging only 85 professional innings, his outstanding stats (1.48 ERA, 39.2% strikeout rate) showcase his potential—if he can remain healthy. As Canterino faces even more uncertainty, the Twins and their fans can only hope for a positive outcome, allowing this talented pitcher to finally break through.

---

What should the Twins expect from Canterino at this point in his career? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

View full article

[PatPfund]

I'd love to see the break-through happen, but it almost feels like it would have to be after he hangs it up, marries, has a kid, becomes a science teacher, coaches his team to a regional title, then goes to a tryout day. Though he probably does it for Tampa not the Twins. (Dennis Quaid's kid could play Canterino in the movie.)

[LambchoP]

My guess is he's looking at surgery and missing another season. I'm sure the Twins will give his 40 man spots to someone else. Maybe next year they bring him back on a minor league deal and see if there's any chance of him throwing again. He would have to pass through waivers at this point right? Too bad. So much potential, just can't stay healthy. Not everyone is able to handle the rigors of pitching.

[Rosterman]

Because it happened in spring training while on the roster, won't he have to go on the 60-man and collect a major league salary all season, if the Twins truly wish to clear a roster spot?

[Parfigliano]

Maybe he should decide he's a relief pitcher.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Yes, it is indeed a lousy situation for Canterino and we all hope that he can get healthy and have a major league career.  Unfortunately the baseball gods don’t seem to want to let that happen. At this point he has rehabbed to the point where he might know the exercises to do without anyone telling him.  However, to call it a tragedy is probably a little over the top.  He was a highly drafted player that got a $1.1M signing bonus and even if he never pitches again, he has a really nice start financially for the rest of his life.  That’s not a bad situation for someone in his mid-20’s.  There are many (perhaps most) players drafted lower who would gladly take his outcome, as they may never make it to the majors (or even AAA) either. 

[Fatbat]

Likely another year of rehab. He will be fine next February… for a week or so…. I will patiently wait for his health to stick around. 

[Eris]

There are many Matt Canterino’s in baseball, unfortunately. It has become the nature of the game. 

[Trov]

I would never draft a Rice pitcher high.  I would never recommend a high school pitcher go to Rice.  The coaches there clearly care nothing about the future of their kids and have not problem burning them out over their 3 to 4 years.  Rice has been well known for this for years.  

The issue is Canterino offers such high upside if he could ever stay healthy, even as a possible pen arm.  He will continue to get chances as long as he wants to fight for them. One day he may actually stay healthy, but he will continue to bounce around because no one will want to put him on 40 man roster for long. 

[TopGunn#22]

This is a Twins prospect I just can't quit on.  We've seen how dominant Brock Stewart can be when he stays healthy.  Canterino could be something very similar, maybe even better.  But there comes a time in an organization just has to cut bait.  The Dodgers did it with Stewart and the Twins will have to give heavy consideration to Canterino as well.

I'm aligned with LambChop on this.  They may have to put him on waivers and then see if they can bring him back, basically pay him while he rehabs yet again.  But like I said, I just can't quit on this guy.  I'm still dreaming of him becoming a dominant bullpen piece even if it's just for 3-4 years at the most before he just simply can't overcome all the injuries. 

That's probably the absolute BEST outcome the Twins could hope for.  But every year new players are drafted and begin the process of moving up the ladder.  At some point, every players dream has to come to an end.  

[madtowntwin]

"This is a Twin's prospect I just can't quit on." Nor should any of us...But sometimes for whatever reason a player ends up trapped by an organizational vicious cycle. It may wise both for the player and said organization to help break that cycle and make a move. Eberson Castellano has gained reputation within the Phillies organization as a pitcher with a great deal of talent who struggles to throw strikes. It remains to be seen if new landscape and coaching staff can alter that scenario. Trade Canterino for Castellano for the sake of all involved. 

[gman]

Place him on the injured list and send him to the doctors/surgeons. As long as he wants to keep trying, there is no reason to give up on him.

[jorgenswest]

On 3/12/2025 at 9:09 AM, Cody Christie said:

However, Rice has garnered a reputation for heavy pitcher workloads, raising concerns about potential overuse. This pattern isn't new to the Twins, with former Rice standout Tyler Duffey, who faced similar risks tied to the program's approach

 

On 3/13/2025 at 6:17 AM, Trov said:

I would never draft a Rice pitcher high.  I would never recommend a high school pitcher go to Rice.  The coaches there clearly care nothing about the future of their kids and have not problem burning them out over their 3 to 4 years.  Rice has been well known for this for years

In 2004 three Rice pitchers were drafted among the top 8 players. All three needed surgery by 2006. Humber and Townsend had Tommy John. Niemann had shoulder surgery. The New York Times wrote a story about the three in 2006 and they backed Rice and their coach.

Quote

All three starters emphatically deny that they were overworked by Rice Coach Wayne Graham, who insists that they left the Rice campus healthy.

Even so it does seem reasonable that their workload led to their injuries. Those surgeries were in 2006. It gained attention because they were 3 of the top 8 picks in the 2004 draft. Duffey pitched for Rice 7 years after the 2004 trio. He threw 52 and 61 innings in his two years prior to being drafted. Canterino threw 96 and 94 innings in his two years at Rice. He did not lead his conference in innings pitched either year and threw what was typical for a college’s top starter in that conference. Canterino pitched for Rice thirteen years after Humber, Townsend and Niemann.

I don’t know if the workloads on the three contributed to their injuries. They claimed it didn’t at the time of their injuries. I don’t think a claim of higher injury risk as a result of pitching for Rice 7 or 13 years after the fact has any support. If you are going to make that claim it should come with support.

I did look for pitchers prior to the 2004 group. 1997 number 1 pick Matt Anderson went to Rice. He did suffer a major injury to his throwing arm in 2002. He suffered a rare teres major muscle tear (arm pit). His injury occurred on a day where he participated in a Tiger sponsored fan octopus throw where he tried to win Detroit Red Wing playoff tickets.

I don’t think there is any reason to recommend avoiding Rice University 21 years after the injured trio. I would recommend that pitchers avoid throwing an octopus as part of their pregame warm up.