I Am Once Again Asking for a Ryan Mountcastle Trade

[tony&rodney]

Someone needs to explore or explain why the Twins would trade any of Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Festa, Woods Richardson, or Matthews. I'm not opposed to a deal but how is moving a SP of value going to make the team better?

Coby Mayo looks like he could be a really good player and i highly doubt the Orioles are even listening on him. Does he play first base or third base pushing Royce Lewis to first base? I'm interested in thoughts on this and wonder if any Baltimore fans would see a 1% chance of Mayo being traded.

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, gmwannabe said:

Ober and Duran for Basallo and Mountcastle. Long term catching solution (who can also play 1st when not catching) and 1st base solved. The money is about a wash. Now get Cease to replace Ober.

I would do this trade if the Cease deal was completed first. Both would be huge news. Put it at 100-1 odds.

[chpettit19]

38 minutes ago, gmwannabe said:

Ober and Duran for Basallo and Mountcastle. Long term catching solution (who can also play 1st when not catching) and 1st base solved. The money is about a wash. Now get Cease to replace Ober.

This is an intriguing idea. I may actually be on board with that even without Cease. I think Basallo has the chance to be the best all-around catching talent in baseball in a couple years. Rocket arm with average receiving and a bat good enough to DH in his off days is a heck of a weapon. It's also why Baltimore is unlikely to trade him. But that's a trade that looks pretty fair from both sides.

[sweetmusicviola16]

50 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Mayo and.......and....

My own thoughts were if we're talking Ober, sure Mountcastle as a throw in. But it starts with Mayo and Bassallo. Nothing less. 4 possible years of Ober, when you count the 3 and a QO year if accepted. Personally, now is not at all the time to talk a trade for Ober or Ryan. I'm of the opinion that after 2025 we might want to move one of them. If Matthews, Festa, Raya,Soto, etc have taken positive steps foreward.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I see Ober as a legitimate CY candidate this year. 

[weitz41]

I'd like Mountcastle on the team as well, just not at the cost of Ober. Paddack and a #15-#30 prospect then sign me up.

[TopGunn#22]

I'm only suggesting trading SWR because his value is at an all time high (19.9) and I think Festa, Matthews and Morris, maybe even Colby Lewis have more upside.  The appeal of SWR is that his floor is pretty solid but I see some regression for 2025.  If the Twins want to make a bigger move, guys like Paddack aren't going to get it done.

But the Orioles rotation is shaky and the BP could use a couple of "average" arms.  They really need pitching.

That's why a Paddack and maybe Henriquez for Mountcastle makes sense.  I don't have access to what Bassalo's value is, but it's going to take more than Paddack.  Guys like Festa, Matthews & SWR are DOUBLE the value of Mountcastle (and Baltimore still has Ryan O'Hearn plus all those young sluggers).  If you want a deal where Mountcastle is a throw in with Bassalo, we need a valuation on Bassalo.

I could see making a bigger deal if I had more information.  It sounds as if Bassalo is close to being major league ready, but he's blocked by Rutschman and Gary Sanchez.  If the Twins made a deal that brought Bassalo and Rutschman, they could probably make a pretty good trade involving Jeffers (16.2 value) but there is probably no market for Vasquez at this time.  Maybe Jeffers could be part of a Dylan Cease deal? 

[Blyleven2011]

8 hours ago, High heat said:

I have liked Mountcastle but he hasn’t been good at first and he hasn’t been an exceptionally good hitter at 1B either.  
 

I could see them moving Castro and Paddack for him, if they have confidence in Michael Helman playing the super utility role. (I don’t think they do)

 

I think a salary trade and a Rizzo signing is coming tho

Helman traded to cardinals this afternoon  ...

[thelanges5]

Paddack and Henriquez for Mountcastle. 

[Mike Sixel]

18 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Paddack and Henriquez for Mountcastle. 

I can't imagine why the other team would do this.

[thelanges5]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I can't imagine why the other team would do this.

Not sure they would but it is about all I would be willing to give up. Could throw in a low level prospect as well. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Not sure they would but it is about all I would be willing to give up. Could throw in a low level prospect as well. 

Fair. I'd give those two up, plus a 15-20 guy .....but then, that seems light? 

[twinstalker]

14 hours ago, Gamblerssoftball said:

Not if it includes one of our top four in the starting rotation. Pitching is too hard to come by.

Who would possibly suggest that?

[twinstalker]

I just read the article.  While RMC is not a bad target, you'd be insane to give up one of the Twins starters (Paddack, sure), inclusive of Matthews, Morris, Lewis, Culpepper, Bengard, and Soto.  Given them Raya.  RMC gets expensive and is perhaps not even an average player.  He's exactly the kind of player Baltimore's front office wants to get rid of.

[bean5302]

Quote

Perhaps no hitter on the team was more cursed by the Orioles’ horrid left-field wall botch job, often called a “modification.” A dead-pull hitter by nature, Mountcastle shifted his approach to favor democracy because, frankly, even Harmon Killebrew would find hitting into a wall as big and distant as the one deemed sufficient to separate Berlin a frustrating task.

What's fun about these types of excuses for player performance is we can test it a bit by using Statcast Metrics in Fangraphs and BaseballSavant.

Mountcastle hit 13 HR last year playing 1/2 his games in Oriole Park. If he played all his games at Target Field, he'd literally have hit 15 HR. As far as changing his approach to use more of the field, I don't see compelling evidence of that. Since the Orioles are rolling back changes to their left field which should help Mountcastle a bit, but unless Mountcastle fixes his swing to reduce the grounders, I don't think he's due for a big positive swing up. He's a wRC+ 110 kind of hitter, heavily limited by his inability to take walks. He's honestly very similar to Jose Miranda IMHO.

Now, in regard to what it would cost to get a guy who isn't likely to outhit Jose Miranda, BTV says +9.2 MM in value so a relatively low value package should get the job done. Jose Miranda is +16ish in value for reference.

[jorgenswest]

On 2/6/2025 at 6:37 AM, Matt Braun said:

A dead-pull hitter by nature, Mountcastle shifted his approach to favor democracy because, frankly, even Harmon Killebrew would find hitting into a wall as big and distant as the one deemed sufficient to separate Berlin a frustrating task. In response, his numbers have been merely fine, not overwhelming for a slugger; his career wRC+ is 112. 

I had to wonder about his splits.

He was better at home than on the road last year. His wRC+ was 103 on the road which is very close to his career wRC+ on the road of 105.

I would stick with Miranda and Julien. A wRC+ of 105 for a DH/1B is closer to DFA level than worthy of giving up assets.

[Linus]

Why wouldn’t just let Miranda play first?

[RpR]

31 minutes ago, Linus said:

Why wouldn’t just let Miranda play first?

Probably because in 2022 when he played there he was not very good.

[DocBauer]

Here's MY take as of today, sorry to repeat what I've stated in another post.

The Pohlad's, Joe i guess, have allowed extra $ for the FO to spend, something I conjectured MIGHT happen weeks ago. It's either a good will gesture, or a simple understanding they stop writing checks by midseason anyway, or some combination.

1] Miranda is the primary 1B as of TODAY. His bat plays at 1B if he's healthy. A bad back supposedly held him back the 2nd half of 2024. He worked hard to go from a mediocre/below average 3B to an acceptable/average 3B. Experience and additional hard work should, IMO, allow him to be an acceptable/average 1B. (I mean, the Twins had Arraez at 1B a couple years ago on the fly). 

2] Reports are the Twins could move Paddack if wanted/needed, but Falvey doesn't just want to unload his contract, he's looking for return value. But it's an important note to consider.

3] The Twins are a better team in 2025 if they can SET 1B and have Miranda as a part time 1B...still growing in to the spot...while being able to DH and fill in at 3B.

The Orioles have the bats to replace Mountcastle, and need arms. Mountcastle is a solid 1B that's not expensive, and has upside, but is on a 3yr downturn in production, LF wall excuse or not. The Twins trade Paddack and Morris/Raya and maybe a 3rd arm such as LH Macleod, for example, to get a "not exactly on an upswing" but solid Mountcastle. They get an immediate arm, a soon to be ready arm, and a 3rd not quite ready arm. Neither side gives up TOO MUCH, but both sides get what they need.

But let's move on from the OP for a moment and extend the Twins options.

Diaz is older than Mountcastle, and while he has a $16M team option, he's going to cost around $12-13M for 2025. Diaz is getting too expensive for the Rays, and they want prospects for him. But in reality, he's still on the final year of his deal. So the Twins offer up a couple solid prospects, ONE top 10 arm like Morris or Raya, and another top 20-ish like Culpepper and Mercedes for example. Maybe the Rays want a 20-ish arm instead of an OF, whatever. The Twins then move Paddack's $7.5M for WHATEVER they can get back in what is primarily a salary dump to appease the Pohlad's and the future owners. At most, Diaz is another $5-6M after Paddack is moved. 

In EITHER scenario, the total payroll for 2025 is less than $150M. The Pohlads are only responsible for a portion of the season's worth of checks written, new owners are handed a better overall product, a remaining payroll not out of bounds, the SYSTEM and the immediate roster aren't damaged, and the TEAM suddenly gets better and deeper.

Mountcastle and Diaz are both solid 1B. Mountcastle is younger, cheaper, and offers upside some upside/rebound. Diaz is not overly expensive in 2026 if his option is picked up. But he can also be let go if the new owners want to move in a different direction.

SUDDENLY, a potentially weak bench constitutes Castro, Bader, Vazquez, and Miranda with ONE spot open TBD. 

That's what I call BEING CREATIVE.

Beats the hell out of adding another journeyman veteran fill in player for a team with talent and aspirations of competing.