Byron Buxton and the Reverse Zoolander - Caretaker Exclusive

[Matthew Trueblood]

What happens to a center fielder if he ceases to be an ambi-turner?

Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

For as long as he's been a big-leaguer, Byron Buxton has been one of the best center fielders in baseball. Truthfully, he was probably one of the best in baseball long before he was a big-leaguer; his offensive issues and injury trouble just slowed him down. In the only thing anywhere near a full season he's ever played (2017), Buxton was worth 23 Defensive Runs Saved, according to Sports Info Solutions. From 2018-22, though he was only healthy enough to play the field in 269 games, he posted 43 DRS. We throw around the word 'elite' too lightly, these days, but that's truly the echelon on which Buxton's defense belonged for years.

Alas, that might be starting to change. After being confined to DH duty in 2023, Buxton was able to return to center in 2024, and he stayed relatively healthy. In 94 games, however, he was only worth 2 DRS—and digging deeper into the numbers reveals some systematic weaknesses.

Source: The Fielding Bible

Notice the extreme degradation of Buxton's performance on deep balls. Buxton was 38 plays better than an average center fielder on such batted balls from 2015-22, but when he came back last year, he didn't come all the way back. Suddenly, he was below-average when the ball was hit over his head.

Now 31 years old, Buxton has clearly lost a step—not in terms of top speed, but in the rapidity with which he can reach it. At times (and not unreasonably), it looked like Buxton was also thinking about self-preservation on balls hit back to the warning track or the wall. On a trio of balls hit deep to the gaps in unfamiliar NL West parks last summer, Buxton tried to make plays with a smoother attack and a bit of deceleration near the wall, and he couldn't come up with the ball.

You'd rather have Buxton not catch that ball (but hit the wall less hard, as he did) than risk the types of injuries (hip, shoulder, head, neck) he's suffered going just a bit faster and making such plays in the past. Still, it's jarring to see him not make plays like these.

Again, the difference between what he did here and what he would have done in the past is subtle, but it's crucial—in two ways. Going a bit harder into the barrier is a good way to get banged-up, or worse. However, it's also the best way to catch balls like these, as Buxton spent the first half-decade of his career proving. Without his fearlessness, he's a bit like a falcon with a clipped wing.

These were all examples drawn from parks where Buxton hasn't played much, though. Going back to the wall in such situations is always a bit of a nervous endeavor, and these few plays might be accounting for most of the difference you see above, in his numbers on deep balls.

Unfortunately, there's a related but separate issue about which we also have to talk, looking at things through a different lens and orienting his pursuit of the ball differently.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

This is a great article, as always. Thank you!

If he were to move to a corner outfield spot, my guess is he would be stronger in left with this information. Is that correct? Or would you prefer to see him in right field and play more right center than hugging the line?

[twinfan]

Cannot agree. Buxton is still one of the best CF in the game. But his tendency to get hurt almost every year kills the Twins. I've advocated trading him and will continue to do so. But to get the most value, we may have to let him start the season and, if not injured, then deal him before or at the deadline.

[bean5302]

OAA/DRS are poor metrics to use in a vacuum over a single season or less. Even UZR has issues under 1,000 innings. Buxton's sprint speed remains unchanged from his mid 20s, and his arm is still near elite. No reason to believe defensive metrics should have declined.

[RpR]

7 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

This is a great article, as always. Thank you!

If he were to move to a corner outfield spot, my guess is he would be stronger in left with this information. Is that correct? Or would you prefer to see him in right field and play more right center than hugging the line?

Leave him where he is; from left or right he would end up being a left by leftcenter  or right by rightcenter as no one can cover ground like he can.

[ashbury]

I didn't watch even half of Buxton's innings last season, and my "eye test" memory of his year was evidently missing quite a bit, which these video clips helped fill in.  I remembered seeing a few balls fall in for singles in front of him, that Jake Cave probably would have dived for and given up a triple or inside the park homer, but Byron himself of years ago would have corralled for outs.  The charts further demonstrate he's not the same elite guy in CF that he used to be.

I'd love to have similar AAA charts for Keirsey, to provide a frame of reference for what we have in the system as an alternative.  I recall watching only one challenging opportunity for Keirsey at Target Field in 2024, a difficult fly at the wall that he couldn't quite haul in.  The videos in this article remind me that Byron wasn't 100% on similar plays either; selective memory tells me he used to be.

[AceWrigley]

Byron's abilities might be the same, but I don't think his confidence is which hampers his performance on difficult plays. Pretty normal for a guy who has had serious run-ins with the wall out there.

[Schmoeman5]

Looking at the graph and the eye test I recall, more balls falling in front of Buxton than normal. Which can be attributed to his starting depth. 316 vs 325. He's playing deeper for the longer potential extra base hits. Or is there more to it than that? I vaguely remember him beating out an infield grounder at the end of the season where he was still running over 30' per second. So the elite speed is still there.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

So this takes him from ridiculous to merely good.  I would expect as much as he ages.  I like your analysis of an admittedly difficult subject to dissect.  A good deal of it is that he has figured out that it is a fool’s errand to go all out diving and running into things.  Otherworldly defense followed by injury doesn’t help the team nearly as much as being available.  Eventually he will likely move to left field, but that is probably as much dependent on Rodriguez and Jenkins as anything else.  Until then, I’m very happy to have him out there - JUST STAY HEALTHY!

[Jocko87]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

OAA/DRS are poor metrics to use in a vacuum over a single season or less. Even UZR has issues under 1,000 innings. Buxton's sprint speed remains unchanged from his mid 20s, and his arm is still near elite. No reason to believe defensive metrics should have declined.

I think this matches my eye test too.  When he needs to go get it, he still can.

The first three plays highlighted are the first thee I think of from last year because they make it very obvious he was committed to adjusting his approach to not risk everything every time.

All in unfamiliar national league parks, he's not trying play hero but maybe still a little tentative on playing the ball with time to think about it.  That should be better this year.

He's committed to adjusting to get more time on the field. More time on the field will pile up DRS with just normal (for him) plays.

If he hurts himself on the wall in the postseason, fine. That's the whole point. He can still own the wall batter than anyone, once or twice.

[DocBauer]

Just want to say that since I'm out of the normal market parameters, I'm able to watch the games on the ML package. While I have respect for defensive metrics, there's such a variance between who rates what in so many different ways, that I take it all with a grain of salt.

Buxton's speed appears to be largely intact. What I saw in 2024 was, mostly, the same old fleet of foot, good tracking Buxton with a great arm. But what i also saw, at times, was a veteran player who has learned that risking his body the way he used to doesn't benefit the team as much as staying healthy. He still made some amazing plays! But he might be playing a couple steps deeper these days, and letting an occasional hit fall in order to keep himself in the lineup, etc.

His knee isn't going to be perfect, but it appears to be "fixed" as well as it can be. I say again, if his hip is OK...a source of issues in the past while compensating for his knee...it's possible he's good for 120 games or so. I hope that's true. He makes a difference at the plate, but also in the field, even if he's less prone to abuse his body for tremendous plays as he did when younger. I don't care what defensive metrics say. I watched him in 2024 and he was still damn good in CF.

[ewen21]

He's a RESERVE Zoolander.  Cannot stay on the field.