Why the Twins Might Lock Up Their Top Prospects Before Their Debuts

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

You should go look at Wallner's upper minors numbers against lefties. He's very much shown he can hit lefties when give the chance. The reason there's only so many spaces for left-handed hitters with the Twins is because they force it to be that way. That is not a situation you're going to sell me on. He's never going to prove he can hit lefties if you constantly fill the roster with short-side platoon bats to avoid ever giving him the chance. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. 

Possibily true. I think for me with Wallner I’m just mostly nervous of his overall K rate generally. If this season he can show he can make it work as a full time regular, that’s a good thing.

This team does have a lot of talent overall, but at the same time they have a ton of guys who have really only been good for short amounts of time, not full seasons. I’d love to see some of their hitters put together a full/quality season together

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

They very well might, but it's not going to be one that is likely to hit better than any of the 3 guys we're discussing here. Santana isn't a better hitter overall or especially against righties. Goldschmidt is on his way out of the league. France hasn't been good in a couple years. Turner wasn't as good as Larnach last year and you'd expect him to be going down with Larnach still pointing up.

The Twins aren't shopping in the section of the free agent market that should have them trading cost controlled young players to open spots for 1 year vets.

Yes, but that is why they are looking at the trade market primarily no?

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Possibily true. I think for me with Wallner I’m just mostly nervous of his overall K rate generally. If this season he can show he can make it work as a full time regular, that’s a good thing.

This team does have a lot of talent overall, but at the same time they have a ton of guys who have really only been good for short amounts of time, not full seasons. I’d love to see some of their hitters put together a full/quality season together

Totally fair. They're in a very weird/tough spot. Much of which is of their own creation some of which has been bad luck. Wallner's K rate is likely never going to be pretty. But he's put up some pretty darn impressive numbers the last 2 years anyways. 

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Yes, but that is why they are looking at the trade market primarily no?

What cheap 1B/DH are they bringing in through trade who has a better track record than these guys and who are they trading to get them? I'm not saying it's not possible, but are you expecting them to trade some of their AAA pitching? Getting better hitters than they have without spending more money means trading some pretty significant prospects. I guess I'd be surprised if they did that.

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Totally fair. They're in a very weird/tough spot. Much of which is of their own creation some of which has been bad luck. Wallner's K rate is likely never going to be pretty. But he's put up some pretty darn impressive numbers the last 2 years anyways. 

Yeah I’m not pushing anyone out the door so to speak. But I do think when they say they are going to be creative and look at the trade market this offseason, that means everyone is on the table other than Correa, Buxton, Lewis, Lopez, Ryan and Jenkins. Buxton and Correa for no trade clauses, Lopez and Ryan for coming off a down and an injured season, and Jenkins for being such a high octane prospect. I’d also be surprised if they traded either Ober or Jax, but not shocked, because they have traded guys in the past coming off career seasons when their value is highest (Arraez is the obvious answer there.)

Everyone else should be potentially available for the right deal

[Otaknam]

It is tempting! But I would until they have proven their skills over a longer period of time. That may just mean a strong, if not sensational rookie season, where the team can see the potential and the player gets lifetime financial security. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What cheap 1B/DH are they bringing in through trade who has a better track record than these guys and who are they trading to get them? I'm not saying it's not possible, but are you expecting them to trade some of their AAA pitching? Getting better hitters than they have without spending more money means trading some pretty significant prospects. I guess I'd be surprised if they did that.

As a low octane move, Lamonte Wade would add a ton of on base percentage to the lineup, and he certainly wouldn’t cost a ton in prospects. That’s just one example, but there are many.

And I do think they can/should be open to trading an arm from the minors. Not multiple necessarily, but I can totally see it

[dxpavelka]

Not gonna happen before the ownership situation is resolved.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, arby58 said:

Chourio played 6 games in AAA.

Correct. He was in AAA because he earned his promotion to AAA in 560 AA plate appearances that season. It's not like he had an Emma season with 150 PA at AA, a bunch of warning flags, and then a promotion to AAA because the clock was ticking. Chourio had nothing left to prove below AAA.

Also, top position player prospects generally don't play full seasons at AAA, and Chourio was a 19 year old with little left to prove in the minors which is why Chourio opened 2024 on the MLB roster as a starting outfielder.

[arby58]

57 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You should go look at Wallner's upper minors numbers against lefties. He's very much shown he can hit lefties when give the chance. The reason there's only so many spaces for left-handed hitters with the Twins is because they force it to be that way. That is not a situation you're going to sell me on. He's never going to prove he can hit lefties if you constantly fill the roster with short-side platoon bats to avoid ever giving him the chance. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. 

In MLB, he's got 108 PAs versus left handed pitching. He has a .144 BA, .510 OPS with 43 Ks. He hasn't shown any ability at the MLB level to perform against LHP. MiLB numbers don't mean anything until you prove it against big league pitching, and Wallner hasn't proven it.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Why would they trade either of them? Why wouldn't Rodriguez be the opening day LFer and soon to be CFer when Buxton gets hurt, Larnach the opening day DH, and Wallner the opening day RFer? Why would you trade either of those players if Rodriguez makes the opening day roster?

That is my preferred alignment.

[Jocko87]

I think the premise of this article is close but don’t think it applies to the Twins or pre-debut players nearly as much as presented. 

The recent baseball precedent that matters are named Shohei and Soto.  True free agency in players primes is going the way of the dodo.  Baseball just can’t afford billion dollar guaranteed contracts.  Witt will be the way.

There will certainly be more pre debut contracts passed out but the real market will be the sweet spot of major league extensions.  2nd year players are going to start getting a lot more extension interest.  To me, it’s the sweet spot of knowing if someone is worth the investment. Pre-debut deals are pretty risky.

It really highlights Falveys pitching and probably overall draft strategy.  The selection of college players makes sense for a lot of reasons but mainly because you control the prime years and cut them loose on the long side of 30.  Maybe a small extension to buy an extra year if it makes sense.  They don’t do a ton of international 16yo probably for the same reason.  When a Walker or Erod falls in your lap it’s a good problem but it’s a tough market to be deep in without deep pockets.  

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, arby58 said:

In MLB, he's got 108 PAs versus left handed pitching. He has a .144 BA, .510 OPS with 43 Ks. He hasn't shown any ability at the MLB level to perform against LHP. MiLB numbers don't mean anything until you prove it against big league pitching, and Wallner hasn't proven it.

108 scattered PAs is nothing. My point is he'll never prove it if he's never given the chance. If you don't let him play everyday you'll always have the excuse of him not having proved he can hit lefties. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. The Twins have to make a conscious decision to go into the season without a platoon for him. And to not start platooning him after 3 weeks if he struggles. 

Or they should be trading Rodriguez and Jenkins and we shouldn't be talking about extensions for them because if the only option for left handed hitters is to platoon them then none of them are worth extensions. If Wallner's minor league numbers don't earn him a shot at everyday PAs then Emma and Jenkins aren't going to earn them either and all the Twins are doing are producing platoon bats and those guys aren't worth the extension deals this article is about and they should be traded because their prospect worth is higher than their actual worth as part-time players. If you're not going to let any of them go the Gunnar Henderson route just trade them all for right handed hitters that you'll actually let play everyday.

[chpettit19]

4 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

As a low octane move, Lamonte Wade would add a ton of on base percentage to the lineup, and he certainly wouldn’t cost a ton in prospects. That’s just one example, but there are many.

And I do think they can/should be open to trading an arm from the minors. Not multiple necessarily, but I can totally see it

 

4 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Yeah I’m not pushing anyone out the door so to speak. But I do think when they say they are going to be creative and look at the trade market this offseason, that means everyone is on the table other than Correa, Buxton, Lewis, Lopez, Ryan and Jenkins. Buxton and Correa for no trade clauses, Lopez and Ryan for coming off a down and an injured season, and Jenkins for being such a high octane prospect. I’d also be surprised if they traded either Ober or Jax, but not shocked, because they have traded guys in the past coming off career seasons when their value is highest (Arraez is the obvious answer there.)

Everyone else should be potentially available for the right deal

Wade is an interesting idea. I like it if you're not going to put Emma on the opening day roster (and they're very likely not). But If Emma can OBP .380 himself then I'd prefer to keep the extra years of control of our hitters than move pieces for him, but certainly don't think it's an outlandish idea.

I hope everyone is on the table. Including Buxton and Correa (no trades are waived all the time for the right situation) if it makes the team better. I think it's hard to make the team better by trading Correa, though (Buxton is a weird case with his injuries). I think the pen is the most likely place to see a trade. Duran or Jax could fetch a pretty big return and we know they like to go pen by committee and believe they can replace people by cycling through enough arms.

To bring us back to the Emma and Jenkins topic, I'd prefer they just run Rodriguez out there on opening day and trust their youngsters. Fully. Don't pull the plug after 2 weeks. Tell him LF is his for the year. Injuries and poor performance means you can still bring in a Wade type as we know Buxton won't play all year and ABs will open up, but I want to go young. The budget is giving them more reason to do it. Answer the questions about everyone. Let 2025 be the make or break year for this roster setup. Can this offensive core be the answer? Find out by handing them the reins and seeing what they can do. You don't need to extend Emma to do that, but I hope they're not afraid to hand him a whole bunch of ABs along the way as they find out what they have in this roster.

[Cory Engelhardt]

37 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

 

Wade is an interesting idea. I like it if you're not going to put Emma on the opening day roster (and they're very likely not). But If Emma can OBP .380 himself then I'd prefer to keep the extra years of control of our hitters than move pieces for him, but certainly don't think it's an outlandish idea.

I hope everyone is on the table. Including Buxton and Correa (no trades are waived all the time for the right situation) if it makes the team better. I think it's hard to make the team better by trading Correa, though (Buxton is a weird case with his injuries). I think the pen is the most likely place to see a trade. Duran or Jax could fetch a pretty big return and we know they like to go pen by committee and believe they can replace people by cycling through enough arms.

To bring us back to the Emma and Jenkins topic, I'd prefer they just run Rodriguez out there on opening day and trust their youngsters. Fully. Don't pull the plug after 2 weeks. Tell him LF is his for the year. Injuries and poor performance means you can still bring in a Wade type as we know Buxton won't play all year and ABs will open up, but I want to go young. The budget is giving them more reason to do it. Answer the questions about everyone. Let 2025 be the make or break year for this roster setup. Can this offensive core be the answer? Find out by handing them the reins and seeing what they can do. You don't need to extend Emma to do that, but I hope they're not afraid to hand him a whole bunch of ABs along the way as they find out what they have in this roster.

I’m with this. I’ll go even one (crazy) step forward. I’d be ok with shifting Buxton to left and having Rodriguez in cf. Maybe that doesn’t happen opening day, but I can see that happening at some point

[arby58]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

108 scattered PAs is nothing. My point is he'll never prove it if he's never given the chance. If you don't let him play everyday you'll always have the excuse of him not having proved he can hit lefties. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. The Twins have to make a conscious decision to go into the season without a platoon for him. And to not start platooning him after 3 weeks if he struggles. 

You'll always have more at bats against right handed pitchers, as there are more of them. 108 at bats over what are parts of two seasons isn't 'scattered' - it is 20 percent of his at bats to date. Why do you think he will get any better at it? Larnach hasn't, and he's had far more at bats.

[chpettit19]

50 minutes ago, arby58 said:

You'll always have more at bats against right handed pitchers, as there are more of them. 108 at bats over what are parts of two seasons isn't 'scattered' - it is 20 percent of his at bats to date. Why do you think he will get any better at it? Larnach hasn't, and he's had far more at bats.

Larnach wasn't good against them in the upper minors either. Its why I didn't mention him. 

18 PAs in 2022, 46 in 2023, and 44 in 2024 is absolutely scattered. You shouldn't be making any decisions based on those sample sizes. Especially when you never know when the ABs are going to come because the expectation is you're going to be pulled anytime a lefty comes into a game.

I think he has a realistic chance of getting better against them because he put up a .911 OPS across AA/AAA/MLB against them in 185 PAs in 2022 and an .848 OPS against them between AAA and MLB in 129 PAs in 2023. Is he going to OPS .850 against them in the majors? Not likely. But could he OPS .750+ against them? It's possible. 18.6% of his major league PAs have come against lefties compared to 29.2% of his total PAs in 2022 and 22.6% in 2023. So he's seeing them far more in the minors and succeeding at extreme rates. It's almost like playing everyday and seeing them regularly has lead to more success.

It's not realistic to platoon every lefty unless you plan to only roster 3 lefties at any given time. But they've deprived all of their young lefties of MLB experience against lefties so when they are forced to rely on them against lefties they predictably struggle and then people like you point to it and say "see, can't trust them." Self-fulfilling prophecy which leads to more Margots on the roster OPSing .540 against righties to ensure Wallner doesn't face a lefty. It's an awful strategy that has lead to them not knowing if Wallner can hit lefties. Just like you'd expect a young/inexperienced hitter who destroyed the upper minors to improve in general with more MLB experience you should expect a young/inexperience hitter who destroyed the upper minors lefties to improve against MLB lefties with more experience. And Wallner destroyed the lefties the upper minors threw at him.

If the Twins are going to treat Emma and Jenkins the same way they treat Wallner then they absolutely should not be looking to extend them and should instead be looking to trade them. If you're going to force your possible superstars to be part-time players you shouldn't pay them like superstars you should trade them for superstar returns.

[mnfireman]

28 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If the Twins are going to treat Emma and Jenkins the same way they treat Wallner then they absolutely should not be looking to extend them and should instead be looking to trade them. If you're going to force your possible superstars to be part-time players you shouldn't pay them like superstars you should trade them for superstar returns.

Agree 100%. Your best players do not sit, give them a chance against same-handed pitching.

[twinstalker]

16 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

...I can’t see it happening at all with Jenkins, if I understand his agent to be Scott Boras...

Articles and comments on this site simply ignore this, even though it's almost the only thing that matters.

Beyond that and for players who actually could be locked up, foremost why would you give someone a six-year deal?  Emmanuel Rodriguez stands a good chance at flaming out with his minors strikeout rate.  Tell me why you give him a deal when you have control over him anyway?  Afraid of paying too much for that last arbitration year?  That's silly.

The Twins, if they are ever lucky enough to have a Jackson Chourio who isn't a Boras client might have reason to sign him for as long as possible, but six years hardly makes sense.  

Another note:  even if Jenkins weren't represented by Boras, he's still not in the class of players who have been signed to the extra long, big contracts (Chourio, Franco).  Those guys were just about guaranteed superstars, though one of them will never get his money.

But Jenkins will never sign a "good for team" contract that delays free agency, and E. Rodriguez is very possibly a flameout candidate.  This topic makes no sense, imo.  It might make sense to identify non-Boras guys and sign them to post-FA contracts, but I have zero confidence in the front office to identify good hitters or make strong offers at the right time even if they do.

My take is that while I wouldn't sign EmRod to an 8 yr contract because we have no idea whether he'll be good or not, I would sign Luke Keaschall to an 8 yr contract on the eve of his major league debut.  The cost won't be much, and he'll be worth it.  That's because Keaschall is a better prospect.  He doesn't strike out in the minors at nearly the rate Rodriguez does.  MLB pitchers might get torched by EmRod initially, but they'll figure out how to get him out, just like they did Julien.  If EmRod has two full years of great production, sign him up for two past FA, but I think we'll hear the phrase "sophomore slump" as if it has nothing to do with the issues Rodriguez has now.

[jorgenswest]

Jenkins will be a parallel with Chourio after another season in the minors. He needs to dominate in AA/AAA next year.

Rodriguez is not in the same prospect class as Robert or Chourio. He is more similar to Singleton.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins are not in any position to sign players to long term contracts and the players aren't going to sign unless the terms are crazy in their favor. 

On Wallner .... if the Twins don't see value in him getting 600+ plate appearances per year (if healthy), there is an easy solution. Pittsburgh is in dire need of a right fielder and would trade Jared Jones for Wallner right now. Both have terrific upside and questions. Jones throws a little too straight and Wallner strikes out. I would just plop Wallner in right field and in the 3 or 4 hole in the batting order. Baldelli might disagree, as might others. Jones would be a really good addition to the pitching staff and allow for the Twins to be more creative in their trades.

The real question remains the same. Do the Twins believe they already have their team?

[TopGunn#22]

I like the "idea" of signing promising young players to long term, team friendly contracts.  The Braves have done a GREAT job doing this, primarily with position players.  They don't take the risk on pitchers.  The other idea that is the elephant in the room is "who is the kids agent?"  If it's Scott Boras the opportunity to do something that could favor the team diminishes greatly.  Royce Lewis is "exhibit A."  

The other undeniable obstacle to this is our current ownership situation.  Signing anybody to this type of contract has an immediate impact on the current payroll.  If we are currently at $142 million with a mandate to get down to $130 million this makes the idea dead in the water. 

You could explore it after this season, once an ownership change has occurred.  That would also get you an additional year to track the progress of Jenkins, E-Rod and Keaschall.  It's never going to happen under the Pohlad regime.  It has a chance under the Ishbia brothers.  This is a topic better revisited after the team is sold and we've had more time to track the progress of Jenkins, E-Rod and Keaschall.  

[DJL44]

On 12/19/2024 at 11:21 PM, twinstalker said:

My take is that while I wouldn't sign EmRod to an 8 yr contract because we have no idea whether he'll be good or not, I would sign Luke Keaschall to an 8 yr contract on the eve of his major league debut.  The cost won't be much, and he'll be worth it.  That's because Keaschall is a better prospect.  He doesn't strike out in the minors at nearly the rate Rodriguez does.  MLB pitchers might get torched by EmRod initially, but they'll figure out how to get him out, just like they did Julien.  If EmRod has two full years of great production, sign him up for two past FA, but I think we'll hear the phrase "sophomore slump" as if it has nothing to do with the issues Rodriguez has now.

I have a good feeling that Rodriguez can field his position and I don't for Keaschall.

[tony&rodney]

10 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I have a good feeling that Rodriguez can field his position and I don't for Keaschall.

Keaschall may not be a 2B/3B player and we already know he is not a SS. Left field is a position he might be really good at in a few years. I would say he has more of a likelihood of being average out there than what the Twins have been using in the recent past. First base is also a consideration. Either way, I believe we shall get the answer this year and his bat may force the Twins to find a position for him.

Emmanuel is MLB ready with the glove and his bat will either thrive or curse him. Put him in coach, he's ready to play.

[DJL44]

39 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Keaschall may not be a 2B/3B player and we already know he is not a SS. Left field is a position he might be really good at in a few years. I would say he has more of a likelihood of being average out there than what the Twins have been using in the recent past. First base is also a consideration. Either way, I believe we shall get the answer this year and his bat may force the Twins to find a position for him.

Emmanuel is MLB ready with the glove and his bat will either thrive or curse him. Put him in coach, he's ready to play.

I'm with you on Keaschall. There is no reason to lock up an average LF/1B with a pre-debut contract.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I'm with you on Keaschall. There is no reason to lock up an average LF/1B with a pre-debut contract.

The Twins don't have a direction now, so no long term contracts. I don't think anyone knows yet what the Twins have in any of Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, or Luke Keaschall. At this point they are prospects and the Twins are in limbo on money.

[dxpavelka]

"historically" limited payroll?