Twins Trade Candidate Breakdown: Chris Paddack

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Hard to get innings out of guys who were just successfully returning from TJ (deGrom and Mahle) and rookies before their call up. Context matters.

Jacob deGrom has made 35 total starts since the 2021 season began. He made 3 starts last year. 6 the year before. And 11 the year before that. You know this. Pointing to Jacob deGrom as a reason a team wouldn't be looking for pitching is nonsense. He hasn't thrown even half a season's worth of starts in 4 years. Hasn't thrown 100 innings in over 5 years (2020 not being his fault, obviously). It's just flat out hard to get innings out of deGrom.

And Jon Gray wasn't a rookie so not sure what context that has to do with the 3 pitchers named.

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Hard to get innings out of guys who were just successfully returning from TJ (deGrom and Mahle) and rookies before their call up. Context matters.

deGrom has averaged 53 innings pitched per season over the last 5 seasons. He pitched 10 innings last year. Do you think he's going to pitch 150 innings in 2025? Less than 1% chance of that happening.

Tyler Mahle has never been durable - one season above 120 innings over the last 5. He pitched 12-2/3 innings in 2024. He's had multiple shoulder injuries over the past 5 seasons in addition to the torn elbow ligament. He's also very unlikely to give the Rangers 150 innings.

These guys are a lot like Paddack as far as durability. Would you bet the over on 160 innings combined from deGrom and Mahle? I wouldn't.

Then there's Jon Gray who was injured several times and ended the season in the IL. Kumar Rocker pitched less than 50 innings. Bradford pitched 82 innings.

I would estimate the Rangers need to cover an additional 300-400 innings out of their rotation (assuming they don't trade Jon Gray).

[bean5302]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

deGrom has averaged 53 innings pitched per season over the last 5 seasons. He pitched 10 innings last year. Do you think he's going to pitch 150 innings in 2025? Less than 1% chance of that happening.

Tyler Mahle has never been durable - one season above 120 innings over the last 5. He pitched 12-2/3 innings in 2024. He's had multiple shoulder injuries over the past 5 seasons in addition to the torn elbow ligament. He's also very unlikely to give the Rangers 150 innings.

These guys are a lot like Paddack as far as durability. Would you bet the over on 160 innings combined from deGrom and Mahle? I wouldn't.

Then there's Jon Gray who was injured several times and ended the season in the IL. Kumar Rocker pitched less than 50 innings. Bradford pitched 82 innings.

I would estimate the Rangers need to cover an additional 300-400 innings out of their rotation (assuming they don't trade Jon Gray).

First off, pitchers are unreliable in general.

In general, there are about 150 pitchers per year with 70 innings pitched. If we extrapolate that out to pitchers with 300+ innings over the past 4 years, you get 133 (of course some weren't good enough to stick/retired/etc) 
There are 12 pitchers in all of MLB who've averaged 175 innings over the past 4 years. 1 in 11.
There are 18 pitchers in all of MLB who've averaged 163 innings over the past 4 years. 1 in 7.
There are 32 pitchers in all of MLB who've averaged 150 innings over the past 4 years. 1 in 4.

In 2023, the Twins had the best rotation they've fielded since 2006. The rotation was expected to be Gray, Lopez, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan with first depth as Ober. 5/6 of the Twins top starters were considered injury prone with only Ryan being reliable.

While Texas is certainly going to be looking for depth, desperate is still not a word I'd use. Their top 5 starters all look solid for performance.

[HerbieFan]

Given that the club was acting like a mid-market one, the signing of Correa was a HUGE win.  In hind sight, acquiring Paddock made sense given the extreme cost of starting pitching....if you get 10-15 starts for $7 million is cost-effective. 

Unfortunately, Joe Pohlad decided to "right-size" the payroll before putting the team up for sale.  Now, the FO is stuck trying to adjust on the fly.  So we get Correa trade rumors.  Rather than simply put Paddock in the bullpen (a place that I think he could be very productive and MAYBE stay healthier), they're stuck trying to move him (a move that will likely cost them a prospect in the 20-25 range).

Thanks Joe.

[tony&rodney]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Lets ignore the 6 year veteran's innings. Here are his actual results on the mound in ERA.
2019 - 3.33 <-- young pitcher with upside! This guy could be great!
2020 - 4.73 <--- promising young pitcher got hurt, but it happens
2021 - 5.07 <--- it's just a small sample size!
2022 - 4.03 <--- okay so there might be a ceiling here.
2023 - 5.40 <--- huh, I thought he was better than this
2024 - 4.99 <--- oh, this is who he is.

Last winter I put this same information out in discussions where people wrote Paddack into the rotation. I suggested that 90 innings would be a possibility and that 120 innings were outside of reality. Paddack may still be a useful arm in the bullpen, an argument I also made last winter. The question is if $7.5 million is too much for a #6-8 guy in the pen. 

My belief is that Paddack can be traded for a dart (player not on any team's top 40 prospects list). CP can also be included in a trade as well with other players. Falvey has been all in on Chris Paddack since 2019 though.

An aside ... Is it an unknown (possible) that Levine was responsible for all player decisions and the divorce signifies a change in direction regarding player acquisition? 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, David Maro said:

Don't see a offer for him until teams see him pitch in ST. You can't expect a team to take his contract without seeing if he can take a mound and show something. This situation is and has been a problem with Falvey trying to build pitching with tired,weak arm and shoulder pitchers. They saw it with the BP as well,just look at Stewart who couldn't even get out of ST. They need to do better at drafting and develop pitching like Cleveland does.

Build a rotation? Add 1 guy that is injured each year. 1.  I mean, this is a rotation almost completely built from within, other than Lopez. 

It's not even close to "build pitching" by acquiring weak armed pitchers. 

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

If they're going to struggle moving Paddack, moving Dobnak as well will be a huge effort. Both have negative value.

I don’t think that Paddack has negative value at all.  I don’t think it will be hard to trade him at all.  

[jmlease1]

7 hours ago, Jeff K said:

I was with you until you mentioned Dobnak!  

He's 7th on the list. Still probably better than some of the veteran retreads that we and others have tried before like Shoemaker. I'm hardly counting on him, but he has been successful before in MLB.

[Jocko87]

It's a timing question really.  Innings must be ate, as well.

Doubt they can get a decent value for him in this offseason so off we go to the deadline.  A healthy Paddack at the deadline has real value and he would have ate many innings on the way.

If the worst case is that he lives the second half in the pen, it's not the worst outcome except kinda expensive.  Other than more IL time that is.

I might look to trade in season but earlier than the deadline.  

[TopGunn#22]

The value of pitching year to year just seems to accelerate.  Each year, pitchers in various tiers are projected to make "X" on the free agent market and they almost always exceed the projection.  MLB radio this morning was speculating if the Mariners would trade Luis Castillo to the Orioles for young talent to open up a bigger pot of gold to offer Juan Soto.  Teams don't generally trade away solid SP's like Luis Castillo.

Because of the need for pitching for every team in MLB, Paddack probably has a little more value than we think.  Not a LOT more, but a bit.  For the Twins, under the "right size my budget" Pohlad regime there is no way the Twins can pay $7.5 million to a bullpen arm who is NOT the closer.  Heck, if the Twins had to pay $7.5 million to Duran or Jax they would probably get traded.

But there are teams who could look at Paddack as a worthy $7.5 million back of the rotation SP, long reliever or a swing pitcher of sorts.  The primary objective in trading Paddack is not necessarily to bring back a good prospect, it's to dump his salary, freeing up $7.5 million that could be better used somewhere else.  

But the time to trade Paddack is NOW, not at the deadline, hoping he somehow increases his value.  The Twins need that salary relief NOW.  Not in July or August.  Take what you can get for him and off load the $7.5 million.  There are bigger spending teams that won't look at that as an astronomical salary.

 

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

The value of pitching year to year just seems to accelerate.  Each year, pitchers in various tiers are projected to make "X" on the free agent market and they almost always exceed the projection.  MLB radio this morning was speculating if the Mariners would trade Luis Castillo to the Orioles for young talent to open up a bigger pot of gold to offer Juan Soto.  Teams don't generally trade away solid SP's like Luis Castillo.

Because of the need for pitching for every team in MLB, Paddack probably has a little more value than we think.  Not a LOT more, but a bit.  For the Twins, under the "right size my budget" Pohlad regime there is no way the Twins can pay $7.5 million to a bullpen arm who is NOT the closer.  Heck, if the Twins had to pay $7.5 million to Duran or Jax they would probably get traded.

But there are teams who could look at Paddack as a worthy $7.5 million back of the rotation SP, long reliever or a swing pitcher of sorts.  The primary objective in trading Paddack is not necessarily to bring back a good prospect, it's to dump his salary, freeing up $7.5 million that could be better used somewhere else.  

But the time to trade Paddack is NOW, not at the deadline, hoping he somehow increases his value.  The Twins need that salary relief NOW.  Not in July or August.  Take what you can get for him and off load the $7.5 million.  There are bigger spending teams that won't look at that as an astronomical salary.

 

I wholeheartedly agree with you. The concern for me is not any return at all - I would trade CP for a PTBNL. Looking at this from the perspective of another team, however, why trade for an oft injured player who is likely to peter out at 75 innings of 4.80 ERA at a best case scenario. On the other hand, some team is likely to believe that $7.5M may be a worthwhile gamble considering their needs. The Twins need to act fast.

[David Maro]

For those who say the rotation is built thru the draft is out of touch. The only SP in the rotation coming out of the draft is Ober.

Lopez for Arraez 

Ryan for Cruz

SWR for Berrios 

Paddack for Rogers 

And bringing Varland up in this conversation,how can anyone think he can ever figure out how to go beyond 3 innings. Festa is the only pitcher that is maybe ready for #5. Zebby needs to be in St.Paul to start the season. If I'm missing someone then why didn't they come up ahead of SWR or Festa and or Zebby.