Offseason Primer: The Guardians Have Some Question Marks Headed Into 2025

[Eric Blonigen]

The Guardians' season has come to an end, after a deep playoff run. What should Twins fans expect from this divisional rival during the offseason, and should Cleveland be seen as a legitimate threat to retain the division crown in 2025?

Image courtesy of © David Dermer-Imagn Images

The fact that the Guardians made it to late October is a bit surprising, given the underlying numbers they put up over the course of the season. Their hitters were 17th in baseball in wOBA and had an exactly-average 100 wRC+. They got negative value from baserunning. They were 13th in position player WAR. They walked less than an average team, though they also struck out at one of the lowest rates in the league. Beyond their hitting core of José Ramírez, Steven Kwan, Andrés Giménez, and Josh Naylor, their offense was a bit stagnant. Overall, they were clutch, and won perhaps 10 more regular-season games than their offense suggests they should have, based on batted-ball data and hit clustering.

The Guardians came into the season expecting more pitching dominance from Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Gavin Williams. That didn’t go according to plan. Bieber’s season was over after 12 innings. Williams went 3-10 in 16 starts, pitching to a 4.86 ERA (4.12 xFIP). McKenzie was a trainwreck, demoted to Triple A in June after giving up 19 home runs in 16 starts. He had an ERA north of 5.00, and his peripherals suggest even that was lucky. Allen was also demoted after a long stretch of shaky outings. Bibee was the only bright spot, worth 3.3 WAR while throwing 173 innings of 3.47 ERA ball. To compensate for their lackluster starting pitching, the Guardians signed Matthew Boyd and traded for Alex Cobb at the deadline.

Their relievers, however, were historic in their brilliance, with Emmanuel Clasé being perhaps the best closer in baseball and some great setup options behind him in Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis. Overall, on the pitching front, Cleveland was 19th in pitching WAR, but that undersells them significantly.

Their standout skill, as a team, was defense, where they ranked eighth in baseball. That's usually the sign of a young team, which they are, but it's rarely the sign of a team that can run it back and have identical success. What does the offseason look like for them? Let’s dig into payroll and roster decisions, team needs, and question marks.

Payroll
One of the biggest factors in the Guardians' offseason plans will be payroll. Like the Twins (and a number of other teams), the Guardians are impacted by the Diamond Sports RSN fiasco. In 2023, they made around $55 million from their TV deal. Also like the Twins, they re-upped on a worse, one-year deal for 2024. In 2025, their broadcasts will be distributed and produced by MLB. According to some napkin math on a recent Gleeman and the Geek episode, this may mean they will receive TV revenues of less than $10 million. Unlike the Twins, the Guardians will take in well over $10 million in playoff revenue, and it could be significantly higher based on the number of playoff games played. How much of that will be reinvested into next year's club, though, is an open question.

In 2024, the Guardians will finish with a $106-million payroll. In 2025, they'll have $43 million tied up in five players: Ramírez, Giménez, Clasé, Trevor Stephan, and Myles Straw. Should they keep all arbitration-eligible players, that will add about $36 million. Pre-arbitration salaries will add another $10 million. So, should they keep their payroll at a similar level, they may only have around $14 million to work with, but it’s unclear what figure they will target. They could pretty easily loosen up more money by non-tendering a few players, but the organization rarely makes big financial splashes in free agency, anyway.

Arbitration Decisions
With all that in mind, let's review the players who are arbitration-eligible: Josh Naylor ($12 million in estimated earnings, according to MLB Trade Rumors), Lane Thomas ($8.3 million), James Karinchack ($1.9 million), McKenzie ($2.4 million), Sam Hentges ($1.4 million), Nick Sandlin ($1.6M million), Eli Morgan ($1 million), Kwan ($4.3 million), and Ben Lively ($3.2 million).

Of these, only Naylor and Thomas are expensive. Cleveland needs offense, so keeping both likely makes sense. Both would also likely command more on the open market, so it’s possible they tender them and trade one or the other for surplus value. With Kyle Manzardo waiting in the wings at first base, trading Naylor might be the move. Of course, it’s not out of the question they non-tender even some of their cheaper guys, with marginal expected salaries but even more marginal utility. McKenzie and Hentges jump out as possibilities.

Free Agents
The Guardians are set to lose four players to free agency: Bieber, Cobb, Boyd, and catcher Austin Hedges. There is mutual interest in re-signing Bieber, though much might depend on how robust a market he finds coming off his surgery.

Clear Team Needs

1. Starting pitching will likely be the priority. With Bieber, Cobb, and Boyd all set to become free agents this offseason and shaky play from most of their internal options, the Guardians have to be feeling some nerves around building an effective rotation in 2025. While they have a strong farm system, their top prospects are nearly all hitters. Trading from those stores for pitching help might be necessary, though it would go against their usual grain.
2. At least one good left-handed hitter has to join the mix. In 2024, the Guardians put up a collective .685 against righties. That’s not great against the strong side. Manzardo figures to have a much larger role than he did this season, but that could come at the expense of Naylor--and even if not, there's room for upgrades from left-handed outfield options Daniel Schneeman and Will Brennan.
3. They'll need a center fielder, if they don't tender and keep Thomas. They could solve that problem from within, but gambling with what seems like a winning window and hoping prospects plug holes would seem a bit too conservative.

Other Question Marks

1. Will Manzardo, Brayan Rocchio, and Jhonkensy Noel take a step forward? Will the league adjust to them, and can they realize their potential?
2. This year's first overall pick, Travis Bazzana, is expected to move quickly up the system. Upon being drafted, there was some thought that he could reach the majors within a full season. His initial showing was strong, but will he continue to prove it?
3. Do the Guardians have faith in any of their pitchers who struggled this season? Have they identified injury or mechanical concerns with McKenzie, Allen, or Williams that they believe they can fix?

The Guardians have a lot of question marks. They need better starting pitching, they need to hit better, and they have an uncertain payroll picture. It’s possible they are forced to cut costs due to the TV situation. If so, anything is possible--even a sudden plunge back into mediocrity. Then again, they are the Guardians, and getting production out of guys you haven’t heard of is sort of their calling card. We'll soon see how real and foundational they think this semi-magical campaign was, based on how they behave once the World Series wraps.

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[Blyleven2011]

What Cleveland needs  sounds exactly what the twins need  ...

2025 ,  detroit and maybe Kansas City will be the team's to beat ...

World series is set , could be a very memorable world series with the Yankees and Dodgers ... 

The playoffs were the most exciting games of the year for me , I hope Baldelli was watching  for ideas on how to play a exciting game of baseball in 2025 , first year Cleveland manager Voit seems like a very capable manager in leading a team  ...

[LambchoP]

The difference between the Twins and the Guardians imo is that the Guards get the most out of each and every player. They play with passion and fire, where as the Twins look like they are asleep out there half the time and losing games just becomes business as usual. Big difference in management between the two teams. 

[tony&rodney]

The data is always worth looking at and every team evaluates their strengths and weaknesses to differing extents using data. Where the date fails is on how a team reacts to the batted ball. Cleveland catches the ball. When a pitcher makes a good pitch that winds up as a ground ball or a fly ball, it usually results in an out. Yes, some irony that Rocchio's errors made some difference versus the Yanks, but he is gobbling up balls that slide into the outfield routinely against the Twins defense.

Cleveland had a pile of problems this season with their starting pitchers. I don't expect that issue to repeat itself. The Guardians also have a number of good players in their system. Expect Cleveland to have another good year in 2025, somewhere from 84-94 wins.

[bean5302]

I wasn't concerned with the Guardians' rotation before the season began or for the last couple years, actually. I just wasn't impressed with what I'd seen in terms of their results. They were always projected to suddenly get better, but it felt like the kind of expectations Twins fans and analysts had for Fernando Romero a few years ago. Often those mystical "they're going to be good because they just have to be, right!?" projections don't turn out.

Cleveland has a dominant bullpen, a very solid core in their young, cost controlled position players, and more positional help close by with an outfielder in Chase DeLauter finishing the year at AAA. Oh, and they have a young shortstop who... now get this... doesn't boot balls around the infield and chuck throws into the stands?! What is this blasphemy? Baldelli and Falvey are surely throwing staplers at walls for the Guardians having the audacity to teach fielding techniques! How dare they? That's cheating! The Guardians probably have somewhere in the ballpark of $30-50MM of payroll room for next year. They'll be able to shore up some holes with that if they choose, but they're such a cheaply run franchise it's hard to say what they'll do.

In any case, the Guardians probably project to be competitive with the Twins. I expect them to be behind Detroit and Kansas City.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Eric Blonigen said:

At least one good left-handed hitter has to join the mix. In 2024, the Guardians put up a collective .685 against righties. That’s not great against the strong side. Manzardo figures to have a much larger role than he did this season, but that could come at the expense of Naylor--and even if not, there's room for upgrades from left-handed outfield options Daniel Schneeman and Will Brennan.

And yet... in 2024... Cleveland led the major leagues in plate appearances by left handed hitters.

3,984 of them. 

The Orioles were 2nd with 3602 of left handed PA's. The Blue Jays were last with 1,925. The Twins were 18th ranked with 2,588

Cleveland will roll out a lineup of L,L,S,L,R,L,L,L,S against right handed pitchers. The only R in that group is Lane Thomas acquired at the trade deadline.

The top 7 players ranked by plate appearances in 2024 were lefty or switch.  Against left handed pitching... the top 4 ranked by AB's were switch, left, left, left. 

 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

And yet... in 2024... Cleveland led the major leagues in plate appearances by left handed hitters.

3,984 of them. 

The Orioles were 2nd with 3602 of left handed PA's. The Blue Jays were last with 1,925. The Twins were 18th ranked with 2,588

Cleveland will roll out a lineup of L,L,S,L,R,L,L,L,S against right handed pitchers. The only R in that group is Lane Thomas acquired at the trade deadline.

The top 7 players ranked by plate appearances in 2024 were lefty or switch.  Against left handed pitching... the top 4 ranked by AB's were switch, left, left, left. 

 

Yep. The "Twins way" isn't the only or even possibly the best way. In fact, I think teams should construct lineups based on the name on the jersey (best players) rather than the spreadsheet which tells them which number hits from which side of the plate.
Ramirez (SHB) vs. RHP wRC+ 121
Kwan (LHB) vs. RHP wRC+ 125
J Naylor (LHB) vs. RHP wRC+ 124
Fry (RHB) vs. RHP wRC+ 94
Gimenez (LHB) vs. RHP wRC+ 90
B Naylor (LHB) vs. RHP wRC+ 78

Example. Despite being a righty, Jose Miranda has hit RHP much better than he's hit LHP over the years, but in 2024, despite raking against righties (wRC+ 142), and struggling against lefties (wRC+ 60), Baldelli continued to standard platoon Miranda.
Jose Miranda (RHB vs. RHP) wRC+ 113, career
Jose Miranda (RHB vs. LHP) wRC+ 91, career

[Riverbrian]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Yep. The "Twins way" isn't the only or even possibly the best way. In fact, I think teams should construct lineups based on the name on the jersey (best players) rather than the spreadsheet which tells them which number hits from which side of the plate.
Ramirez (SHB) vs. RHP wRC+ 121
Kwan (LHB) vs. RHP wRC+ 125
J Naylor (LHB) vs. RHP wRC+ 124
Fry (RHB) vs. RHP wRC+ 94
Gimenez (LHB) vs. RHP wRC+ 90
B Naylor (LHB) vs. RHP wRC+ 78

Example. Despite being a righty, Jose Miranda has hit RHP much better than he's hit LHP over the years, but in 2024, despite raking against righties (wRC+ 142), and struggling against lefties (wRC+ 60), Baldelli continued to standard platoon Miranda.
Jose Miranda (RHB vs. RHP) wRC+ 113, career
Jose Miranda (RHB vs. LHP) wRC+ 91, career

I've been singing this song for quite some time now. And I don't believe I will stop singing this song.  

75% of Pitching is right handed pitching. The Twins need to stop employing specialists like Margot and Farmer to face the 25% of left handed pitching just so Wallner doesn't have to face them. 

Especially when you consider the fact that our 3 best players (Correa, Buxton and Lewis) who will face both left and right are often injured and show no signs of not being often hurt. Because when they get hurt... it draws Margot and Farmer into the lineup against right handers. Both Margot and Farmer faced more right handers than left handers in 2024. With our injury luck we can't afford to waste roster spots on specialists. 

Get more left handed hitters or hitters that are better against the 75% and take your lumps against the left handed pitching. 

You mention Miranda... you are spot on. Miranda is still developing. Making him a short side specialist at this stage of his career will turn him into nothing of future value. 

 

  

[SD happy]

Hate to say it, but you have to give Cleveland a lot of credit this year. When Bieber went down early in the season, I thought whatever chance they had to win division was probably done. It goes to prove what timely hitting and exceptional bullpen will do for you. Also a couple of key additions at trade deadline….Boyd and Thomas

 

[nicksaviking]

34 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I've been singing this song for quite some time now. And I don't believe I will stop singing this song.  

75% of Pitching is right handed pitching. The Twins need to stop employing specialists like Margot and Farmer to face the 25% of left handed pitching just so Wallner doesn't have to face them. 

Especially when you consider the fact that our 3 best players (Correa, Buxton and Lewis) who will face both left and right are often injured and show no signs of not being often hurt. Because when they get hurt... it draws Margot and Farmer into the lineup against right handers. Both Margot and Farmer faced more right handers than left handers in 2024. With our injury luck we can't afford to waste roster spots on specialists. 

Get more left handed hitters or hitters that are better against the 75% and take your lumps against the left handed pitching. 

You mention Miranda... you are spot on. Miranda is still developing. Making him a short side specialist at this stage of his career will turn him into nothing of future value. 

 

  

The Twins are going to rue not using this lost season to let the young hitters get reps against same-handed pitching.

Max Kepler is the lone exception to the team's don't-let-lefties-hit-against-lefties rule because he was given the chance to take his lumps against them early in his career.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I wasn't concerned with the Guardians' rotation before the season began or for the last couple years, actually. I just wasn't impressed with what I'd seen in terms of their results. They were always projected to suddenly get better, but it felt like the kind of expectations Twins fans and analysts had for Fernando Romero a few years ago. Often those mystical "they're going to be good because they just have to be, right!?" projections don't turn out.

Just looking over Clevelands team for the last decade or so they do a pretty good job of developing decent starter pitching prospects into quality/decent starters in their mid 20's but in reality few turn out to be studs for many years. (Bieber is kind of an exception but only twice has pitched more than 128 innings in the majors) Which based on history it isn't much of a surprise.

[Riverbrian]

20 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

The Twins are going to rue not using this lost season to let the young hitters get reps against same-handed pitching.

Max Kepler is the lone exception to the team's don't-let-lefties-hit-against-lefties rule because he was given the chance to take his lumps against them early in his career.

Yep... They will rue the day. Some of us may not notice the specific rue but yes they will. It's almost guaranteed. 

The consequence... the "rue".... the bill that will have to be paid in the future is:

1. They will have to limit the amount of lefthanders on the roster just to execute the strategy because you are limited on how many you can protect.

2. They will eventually have to face left handers because there are more lefties than they can protect and if they need to face left handers all of sudden... two years will have been wasted... when they all of sudden have no choice. 

3. Aging vets will need to occupy roster space or worse yet... Young prospects from the right side of the plate will be utilized for short side duty.  

Even Kepler went through a significant stretch of time this season being protected against left handers. It happened when Julien was sent down and all of sudden they were light on lefties and heavy on right handed specialists. Margot was here to play against right handers so Kepler would sit so Margot could play. It became necessary to justify the existence of Margot. Kepler faced lefties when we had 4 lefties... once you lose a lefty to injury or poor play and go down to 3. Kepler has to fill the role just to keep the process intact. 

The Twins worked real hard just to keep this platoon strategy in tact throughout injuries and poor play. The commitment to the bit was impressive but sad. 

They will rue the day. I'm already ruing. 

[Schmoeman5]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Yep... They will rue the day. Some of us may not notice the specific rue but yes they will. It's almost guaranteed. 

The consequence... the "rue".... the bill that will have to be paid in the future is:

1. They will have to limit the amount of lefthanders on the roster just to execute the strategy because you are limited on how many you can protect.

2. They will eventually have to face left handers because there are more lefties than they can protect and if they need to face left handers all of sudden... two years will have been wasted... when they all of sudden have no choice. 

3. Aging vets will need to occupy roster space or worse yet... Young prospects from the right side of the plate will be utilized for short side duty.  

Even Kepler went through a significant stretch of time this season being protected against left handers. It happened when Julien was sent down and all of sudden they were light on lefties and heavy on right handed specialists. Margot was here to play against right handers so Kepler would sit so Margot could play. It became necessary to justify the existence of Margot. Kepler faced lefties when we had 4 lefties... once you lose a lefty to injury or poor play and go down to 3. Kepler has to fill the role just to keep the process intact. 

The Twins worked real hard just to keep this platoon strategy in tact throughout injuries and poor play. The commitment to the bit was impressive but sad. 

They will rue the day. I'm already ruing. 

? Do you think they will change their MO moving forward or are you expecting things to stay the same? I expect there will be no dramatic change other than the names on the back of the jersey.

[Riverbrian]

4 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

? Do you think they will change their MO moving forward or are you expecting things to stay the same? I expect there will be no dramatic change other than the names on the back of the jersey.

They have been so heavy on this course since Julien and the Young Lefties (Great Band) hit the scene. I'd be shocked if they reversed course. However... they were heavy on the third time through the order thing with the starting pitching and pulled back on that so I still have hope that they are capable of getting closer to a normal application of the platoon split. 

While they were doing the third time through the order thing they took it to a new level. Kind of like drinking 4 bottles of wine a night when a glass of wine is good for you. Now they have taken the lefty vs lefty thing to 5 bottles of wine a night.   

I'm hoping that Margot and Farmer facing more right handers than left handers this year showed them the issues with the strategy. 

I'm hoping that injuries we suffered at the top of the pile and will suffer again showed the need for a deeper roster with less specialty on it because we will need them to be more than what they are. 

I'm hoping that injuries we suffered showed that at some point the plan is not sustainable through the course of 162 games and that they realize the need to use games earlier in the year to prepare for suddenly needing your left hander to hit left handed pitching in September because the right handed hitters are on the DL. 

I'm hoping that they realize that Castro and Santana leading the team in AB's is not ideal. 

I'm hoping that they realize that signing Margot's every year to keep the integrity of it in place is not good strategy. 

I'm hoping that they realize that nothing is more important than the development of our cheap talent and that hiding them from the certain aspects of the game of baseball is not helpful in their development. 

I'm hoping that the playoff teams that were heavy lefty showed success without it and I'm hoping that the success of the Detroit Tigers with a roster made of youth shows them that youth isn't scary... crappy playing veterans is much more scary.     

I'm guessing of course... However... if they are going to adjustments... I assume it would have to be a little on the dramatic side given assumed financial limitations. If Payroll is going to limit possibilities... they pretty much have to roll with the majority of the 40 man already in place. Leaving multiple trades to free up money as the only option. 

Unless they surprise me... I expect the majority of the current 26 man and the 40 man to be in place.  

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I've been singing this song for quite some time now. And I don't believe I will stop singing this song.  

75% of Pitching is right handed pitching. The Twins need to stop employing specialists like Margot and Farmer to face the 25% of left handed pitching just so Wallner doesn't have to face them. 

Especially when you consider the fact that our 3 best players (Correa, Buxton and Lewis) who will face both left and right are often injured and show no signs of not being often hurt. Because when they get hurt... it draws Margot and Farmer into the lineup against right handers. Both Margot and Farmer faced more right handers than left handers in 2024. With our injury luck we can't afford to waste roster spots on specialists. 

Get more left handed hitters or hitters that are better against the 75% and take your lumps against the left handed pitching. 

You mention Miranda... you are spot on. Miranda is still developing. Making him a short side specialist at this stage of his career will turn him into nothing of future value. 

 

  

Are the playoff teams just taking their lumps or are they utilizing match-ups?

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

The Twins are going to rue not using this lost season to let the young hitters get reps against same-handed pitching.

Max Kepler is the lone exception to the team's don't-let-lefties-hit-against-lefties rule because he was given the chance to take his lumps against them early in his career.

Actually, if you look at Kepler since Baldelli took over as the manager, it's clear the Twins were platooning him more and more. His ratio of PA per game vs. lefties and righties started shifting. Since Kepler was a veteran, he seems to have gotten some leeway.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Are the playoff teams just taking their lumps or are they utilizing match-ups?

Are you asking in the playoffs or during the season? Because those are TWO HUGELY different questions.

[Major League Ready]

28 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Are you asking in the playoffs or during the season? Because those are TWO HUGELY different questions.

During the playoffs but not so hugely different because Riverbrian is saying he would not roster these players.  How could playoff teams have players for match-ups if they didn't have them on the roster?

[Doctor Gast]

"getting production out of guys you haven’t heard of is sort of their calling card"

Many analytics called CLE lucky because they hit in the clutch in close games. IMO clutch hitting is an art form that can be acquired & CLE has acquired it, there's no luck involved unless you don't help develop it.

CLE knows how to develop & manage their players. Except for their constant abuse of overusing their elite BP. It has amazed me that they held together throughout the season w/o major injuries. much less the postseason. It was evident that they were gassed during the postseason which stymied their advancement in the postseason.

 It seems to me that nothing much changed with the Twins so I expect CLE, DET & KC will be a handful and will be harder to play against than this year. Unless somebody falls into Falvey's lap, I expect the same result.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Are you asking in the playoffs or during the season? Because those are TWO HUGELY different questions.

They are two hugely different things.

In the playoffs... Platoon all you want.

You'll have a season worth of data to help you with who to lean on in the playoffs. 

 

[Blyleven2011]

13 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

They have been so heavy on this course since Julien and the Young Lefties (Great Band) hit the scene. I'd be shocked if they reversed course. However... they were heavy on the third time through the order thing with the starting pitching and pulled back on that so I still have hope that they are capable of getting closer to a normal application of the platoon split. 

While they were doing the third time through the order thing they took it to a new level. Kind of like drinking 4 bottles of wine a night when a glass of wine is good for you. Now they have taken the lefty vs lefty thing to 5 bottles of wine a night.   

I'm hoping that Margot and Farmer facing more right handers than left handers this year showed them the issues with the strategy. 

I'm hoping that injuries we suffered at the top of the pile and will suffer again showed the need for a deeper roster with less specialty on it because we will need them to be more than what they are. 

I'm hoping that injuries we suffered showed that at some point the plan is not sustainable through the course of 162 games and that they realize the need to use games earlier in the year to prepare for suddenly needing your left hander to hit left handed pitching in September because the right handed hitters are on the DL. 

I'm hoping that they realize that Castro and Santana leading the team in AB's is not ideal. 

I'm hoping that they realize that signing Margot's every year to keep the integrity of it in place is not good strategy. 

I'm hoping that they realize that nothing is more important than the development of our cheap talent and that hiding them from the certain aspects of the game of baseball is not helpful in their development. 

I'm hoping that the playoff teams that were heavy lefty showed success without it and I'm hoping that the success of the Detroit Tigers with a roster made of youth shows them that youth isn't scary... crappy playing veterans is much more scary.     

I'm guessing of course... However... if they are going to adjustments... I assume it would have to be a little on the dramatic side given assumed financial limitations. If Payroll is going to limit possibilities... they pretty much have to roll with the majority of the 40 man already in place. Leaving multiple trades to free up money as the only option. 

Unless they surprise me... I expect the majority of the current 26 man and the 40 man to be in place.  

I'm hoping that they realize every win matters starting in April  , I'm tired of hearing tomorrow's another game to straighten it out ...

[Major League Ready]

10 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

They are two hugely different things.

In the playoffs... Platoon all you want.

You'll have a season worth of data to help you with who to lean on in the playoffs. 

 

You have said over and over you would only roster players that were good against RHP because they represent 75% of IPs.  (It's actual 72%) and take your lumps against LHP.  So, how do you not roster these players yet have them to platoon in the playoffs?

Your strategy assumes you can accumulate 13 starter caliber LHH players.  That's the first failed assumption.  It' shard enough to get 8 that are league average or above.  Most bench players are bench players because they are not above average against RHP.  

Ideally you have LHH that hit LHP but when you don't, giving a decided advantage away 28% of the time is a really poor strategy.   The only way this gap is bridged is if you have a lot of injuries to your best LHHs and guess what, a lot of injuries is very likely to derail any team.

Even if the Twins spend like they did last year, the total is $6m per player for 26 players.  The Dodgers or the Yankees can spend.  $6M on 20 players and fill all their holes with $30M AAV players.  Even the Dodgers and Yankees utilize match-ups.  Expecting to construct a team of all above average players against RHP, especially with below average revenue is fantasy baseball.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I'm hoping that they realize every win matters starting in April  , I'm tired of hearing tomorrow's another game to straighten it out ...

Over the course of 162 games. We lost 4 more games than the Royals and Tigers did. 1 more loss every 40 games, The margins are pretty thin. Too thin for games not to matter. 

On the other hand... The Yankees lost 68 games last year. They had some straightening out. 

[Riverbrian]

29 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

You have said over and over you would only roster players that were good against RHP because they represent 75% of IPs.  (It's actual 72%) and take your lumps against LHP.  So, how do you not roster these players yet have them to platoon in the playoffs?

Your strategy assumes you can accumulate 13 starter caliber LHH players.  That's the first failed assumption.  It' shard enough to get 8 that are league average or above.  Most bench players are bench players because they are not above average against RHP.  

Ideally you have LHH that hit LHP but when you don't, giving a decided advantage away 28% of the time is a really poor strategy.   The only way this gap is bridged is if you have a lot of injuries to your best LHHs and guess what, a lot of injuries is very likely to derail any team.

Even if the Twins spend like they did last year, the total is $6m per player for 26 players.  The Dodgers or the Yankees can spend.  $6M on 20 players and fill all their holes with $30M AAV players.  Even the Dodgers and Yankees utilize match-ups.  Expecting to construct a team of all above average players against RHP, especially with below average revenue is fantasy baseball.

You are still on ignore and you will remain on ignore.

The assumptions of mine that you list are not my assumptions. They are once again distortions of my positions. 

Once again.. you don't understand and you don't understand belligerently. 

I ask kindly that you refrain from interpretation of my thoughts. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

No reason to concede anything in the AL Central. The Guardians, Tigers, and Royals have as many flaws as the Twins do. The primary difference in 2024 was health. If Correa doesn't miss 2 months, the Twins would have been in the post-season. Admittedly, there's no guarantees or even confidence that Correa can stay on the field in 2025...but even so, injuries sometimes have a way of evening out and the Guards especially had a pretty charmed life in that regard.

I for one don't think Cleveland's bullpen is going to pitch at the same level in 2025 and that alone will bring them back to the pack. If Clase's post-season hiccups were a sign of the league adjusting to whatever made him unhittable, then the Guards are in trouble.

[Major League Ready]

54 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

You are still on ignore and you will remain on ignore.

The assumptions of mine that you list are not my assumptions. They are once again distortions of my positions. 

Once again.. you don't understand and you don't understand belligerently. 

I ask kindly that you refrain from interpretation of my thoughts. 

So instead of whining, state your interpretation.  In other words, defend your position by explaining how you don't roster a certain kind of player yet have that type of player to match-up in the playoffs.  That would have more value than complaining that I would have the nerve to challenge your position.   

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

So instead of whining, state your interpretation.  In other words, defend your position by explaining how you don't roster a certain kind of player yet have that type of player to match-up in the playoffs.  That would have more value than complaining that I would have the nerve to challenge your position.   

Whining? This is you being belligerent once again and why you will remain on ignore. 

I will respond one more time and then leave you alone forever because this thread will be derailed by continueing the discussion. 

"State your interpretation". I have purchased more real estate on the subject than anyone on this site. I have typed more column inches than anyone on the site. I have stated my position over and over again. I have approached it comprehensively. You still condense and distort it, don't understand it and you do so belligerently.

This is a pet subject of mine much like revenue is a pet subject of yours. My opinions are posted.  

Let me simplify it for you since everything that I've typed thus far has gone over your head and you are asking for interpretation.  

Don't roster short siders. Especially when you spend 10 million dollars of very limited revenue on them. I'd rather spend the limited amount of money available on a player or players who hit better against right handed pitchers. 

They will end up facing more right handers than left handers which will cancel out the limited gain their presence on the roster might provide.   

I never typed that I want 13 left handers in the lineup. You said that I did. This is a distortion and this is what you consistently and belligerently do... therefore I have no interest in discussing anything with you.  

I am not anti-platoon,.. I recognize the splits as historically real. I am anti the extreme version of the platoon that we deploy.

Almost every team platoons. The Guardians (the subject of this thread) platoon pretty heavy. I wouldn't starve a young left handed hitter like Kyle Manzardo vs left handers much like the Twins do with our young left handed hitters. I think it's bad for development but almost every team platoons.

The difference is that Cleveland did not spend 10 million on short siders. They have rostered more left handed hitters than right handed hitters. They didn't yank out the left handed hitters in the 5th inning in May. They spent the minimum on each of the players that they utilized from the right side of the plate and they still get their playing time against right handed pitching despite having an overwhelming left handed roster. David Fry has 206 AB's vs RH and 129 AB's vs LH. Noel has 122 vs RH and 57 vs LH.

Compare that to the Twins: Margot had 159 AB's vs RH and 156 vs LH. Farmer had 108 AB's vs RH and 107 AB's vs LH. Due to talent... the Twins had to manage their short siders much steeper and still couldn't shield them from RHP and they paid 10 million for it. 

Fry and Noel did a little more to earn their place on the 26 man roster than our short siders. Fry produced a .804 OPS overall and Noel produced a .774 compared to Farmer producing .646 OPS overall and Margot producing a .626 overall.

This was what we got for 10 million. Nearly a 50-50 split with RH and LH AB's so the gains were cancelled out. While Cleveland got closer to a 2 to 1 ratio of RH/LH for the league minimum and better production. 

The Yankees didn't platoon much at all during the regular season. Now that the playoffs are here they have went to a Rizzo/Berti platoon. They got a season worth of data to make that decision... regardless if the decision is right or wrong or some place in between.  

There are multiple reasons why I feel the way I do. I have typed all of the reasons over the course of time.  You still belligerently misrepresent my opinions. No matter how many words I type and I have typed a lot of words on it... you still manage to reduce/condense the tons of what I've said... into something that I didn't say and then act like a jerk about it. 

I kindly ask that you quit trying to interpret my points. You and I have no reason to ever discuss anything ever.  

[Major League Ready]

50 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Whining? This is you being belligerent once again and why you will remain on ignore. 

I will respond one more time and then leave you alone forever because this thread will be derailed by continueing the discussion. 

"State your interpretation". I have purchased more real estate on the subject than anyone on this site. I have typed more column inches than anyone on the site. I have stated my position over and over again. I have approached it comprehensively. You still condense and distort it, don't understand it and you do so belligerently.

This is a pet subject of mine much like revenue is a pet subject of yours. My opinions are posted.  

Let me simplify it for you since everything that I've typed thus far has gone over your head and you are asking for interpretation.  

Don't roster short siders. Especially when you spend 10 million dollars of very limited revenue on them. I'd rather spend the limited amount of money available on a player or players who hit better against right handed pitchers. 

They will end up facing more right handers than left handers which will cancel out the limited gain their presence on the roster might provide.   

I never typed that I want 13 left handers in the lineup. You said that I did. This is a distortion and this is what you consistently and belligerently do... therefore I have no interest in discussing anything with you.  

I am not anti-platoon,.. I recognize the splits as historically real. I am anti the extreme version of the platoon that we deploy.

Almost every team platoons. The Guardians (the subject of this thread) platoon pretty heavy. I wouldn't starve a young left handed hitter like Kyle Manzardo vs left handers much like the Twins do with our young left handed hitters. I think it's bad for development but almost every team platoons.

The difference is that Cleveland did not spend 10 million on short siders. They have rostered more left handed hitters than right handed hitters. They didn't yank out the left handed hitters in the 5th inning in May. They spent the minimum on each of the players that they utilized from the right side of the plate and they still get their playing time against right handed pitching despite having an overwhelming left handed roster. David Fry has 206 AB's vs RH and 129 AB's vs LH. Noel has 122 vs RH and 57 vs LH.

Compare that to the Twins: Margot had 159 AB's vs RH and 156 vs LH. Farmer had 108 AB's vs RH and 107 AB's vs LH. Due to talent... the Twins had to manage their short siders much steeper and still couldn't shield them from RHP and they paid 10 million for it. 

Fry and Noel did a little more to earn their place on the 26 man roster than our short siders. Fry produced a .804 OPS overall and Noel produced a .774 compared to Farmer producing .646 OPS overall and Margot producing a .626 overall.

This was what we got for 10 million. Nearly a 50-50 split with RH and LH AB's so the gains were cancelled out. While Cleveland got closer to a 2 to 1 ratio of RH/LH for the league minimum and better production. 

The Yankees didn't platoon much at all during the regular season. Now that the playoffs are here they have went to a Rizzo/Berti platoon. They got a season worth of data to make that decision... regardless if the decision is right or wrong or some place in between.  

There are multiple reasons why I feel the way I do. I have typed all of the reasons over the course of time.  You still belligerently misrepresent my opinions. No matter how many words I type and I have typed a lot of words on it... you still manage to reduce/condense the tons of what I've said... into something that I didn't say and then act like a jerk about it. 

I kindly ask that you quit trying to interpret my points. You and I have no reason to ever discuss anything ever.  

My question was pretty simple.  Do these match-ups exist in the playoffs?  Of course they do!  If these players are not rostered, why don't the teams just play the "best" 8 guys + DH?   The Twins have an entire analytics department and a front office that disagrees with you.  Go ahead and believe the problem is they don't understand the situation as well as you.

[Riverbrian]

On 10/22/2024 at 10:27 AM, Major League Ready said:

My question was pretty simple.  Do these match-ups exist in the playoffs?  Of course they do!  If these players are not rostered, why don't the teams just play the "best" 8 guys + DH?   The Twins have an entire analytics department and a front office that disagrees with you.  Go ahead and believe the problem is they don't understand the situation as well as you.

Yes... These matchups exist in the playoffs. Are we done now? Did you just win the argument?

Do you honestly believe that I don't understand that these matchups exist in the playoffs. ESPECIALLY WHEN I JUST ACKNOWLEDGED THAT PLATOONING EXISTS ON ALMOST ALL 29 TEAMS DURING THE REGULAR SEASON.  Why do you ignore what I say... in order to make a point that I'm not saying? 

Do you think these playoff matchups as you call them WERE PUT TOGETHER IN MARCH when you are putting the roster together and spending the budget? Do you think that entire analytics team gets it 100% right? I don't claim to be 100% right. Still got my opinions that you are ignoring just so you can put opinions that I'm not making in my mouth. STOP DOING THAT!!! 

Do you think that I don't know that the Twins have an ENTIRE ANALYTICS DEPARTMENT? Yet... you want to play that card with me. Might as well just shut down the forums. None of us... INCLUDING YOU have a leg to stand on in that regard. 

Do you think that I don't know that the other 29 teams have an ENTIRE ANALYTICS DEPARTMENT? Do you think the analytics compiled by all 30 teams are that much different from the other teams? Do you think they decide what they prioritize? Yet the Twins platoon more severely than any other team. They set their roster to prioritize protecting the left handed hitter. Is their data special? Are the other 29 teams doing it wrong? I can be ridiculous with you just like you are being with me? 

What else have you got for me? Do you want to bring up how revenue strapped clubs like the Twins need to survive even though I've never asked for a high priced free agent or complained about payroll?

I know you like how Cleveland has built their roster because you use them as an example of how markets of our ILK must operate. Why do they have 7 left handed hitters and two switch hitters on their roster if the ENTIRE TWINS Analytics department has concluded that left handed hitters must be kept from left handed pitching. Don't answer the question. I'm really not interested in anything you have to say. 

What other point that I haven't made do you want to claim I've made? 

I again ask... Less Kindly this time. Quit trying to interpret my thoughts. You are horrible at it. 

 

[tony&rodney]

The Guardians suffered an abnormal number of injuries to their starting position depth this year. Some of these pitchers could return effectively. Not all of Daniel Espino, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, Joey Cantillo, Tristan McKenzie, or anyone else will fade into oblivion. Without spending too much time looking or thinking about this, I expect the Guards to have better starting pitching next season. FWIW, they also have some good young relievers coming on, such as  Andrew Walters.

Are people aware that the fielding focused, astute base running Cleveland team also hit more home runs than the power focused Minnesota Twins?