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The fact that the Guardians made it to late October is a bit surprising, given the underlying numbers they put up over the course of the season. Their hitters were 17th in baseball in wOBA and had an exactly-average 100 wRC+. They got negative value from baserunning. They were 13th in position player WAR. They walked less than an average team, though they also struck out at one of the lowest rates in the league. Beyond their hitting core of José Ramírez, Steven Kwan, Andrés Giménez, and Josh Naylor, their offense was a bit stagnant. Overall, they were clutch, and won perhaps 10 more regular-season games than their offense suggests they should have, based on batted-ball data and hit clustering.
The Guardians came into the season expecting more pitching dominance from Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Gavin Williams. That didn’t go according to plan. Bieber’s season was over after 12 innings. Williams went 3-10 in 16 starts, pitching to a 4.86 ERA (4.12 xFIP). McKenzie was a trainwreck, demoted to Triple A in June after giving up 19 home runs in 16 starts. He had an ERA north of 5.00, and his peripherals suggest even that was lucky. Allen was also demoted after a long stretch of shaky outings. Bibee was the only bright spot, worth 3.3 WAR while throwing 173 innings of 3.47 ERA ball. To compensate for their lackluster starting pitching, the Guardians signed Matthew Boyd and traded for Alex Cobb at the deadline.
Their relievers, however, were historic in their brilliance, with Emmanuel Clasé being perhaps the best closer in baseball and some great setup options behind him in Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis. Overall, on the pitching front, Cleveland was 19th in pitching WAR, but that undersells them significantly.
Their standout skill, as a team, was defense, where they ranked eighth in baseball. That's usually the sign of a young team, which they are, but it's rarely the sign of a team that can run it back and have identical success. What does the offseason look like for them? Let’s dig into payroll and roster decisions, team needs, and question marks.
Payroll
One of the biggest factors in the Guardians' offseason plans will be payroll. Like the Twins (and a number of other teams), the Guardians are impacted by the Diamond Sports RSN fiasco. In 2023, they made around $55 million from their TV deal. Also like the Twins, they re-upped on a worse, one-year deal for 2024. In 2025, their broadcasts will be distributed and produced by MLB. According to some napkin math on a recent Gleeman and the Geek episode, this may mean they will receive TV revenues of less than $10 million. Unlike the Twins, the Guardians will take in well over $10 million in playoff revenue, and it could be significantly higher based on the number of playoff games played. How much of that will be reinvested into next year's club, though, is an open question.
In 2024, the Guardians will finish with a $106-million payroll. In 2025, they'll have $43 million tied up in five players: Ramírez, Giménez, Clasé, Trevor Stephan, and Myles Straw. Should they keep all arbitration-eligible players, that will add about $36 million. Pre-arbitration salaries will add another $10 million. So, should they keep their payroll at a similar level, they may only have around $14 million to work with, but it’s unclear what figure they will target. They could pretty easily loosen up more money by non-tendering a few players, but the organization rarely makes big financial splashes in free agency, anyway.
Arbitration Decisions
With all that in mind, let's review the players who are arbitration-eligible: Josh Naylor ($12 million in estimated earnings, according to MLB Trade Rumors), Lane Thomas ($8.3 million), James Karinchack ($1.9 million), McKenzie ($2.4 million), Sam Hentges ($1.4 million), Nick Sandlin ($1.6M million), Eli Morgan ($1 million), Kwan ($4.3 million), and Ben Lively ($3.2 million).
Of these, only Naylor and Thomas are expensive. Cleveland needs offense, so keeping both likely makes sense. Both would also likely command more on the open market, so it’s possible they tender them and trade one or the other for surplus value. With Kyle Manzardo waiting in the wings at first base, trading Naylor might be the move. Of course, it’s not out of the question they non-tender even some of their cheaper guys, with marginal expected salaries but even more marginal utility. McKenzie and Hentges jump out as possibilities.
Free Agents
The Guardians are set to lose four players to free agency: Bieber, Cobb, Boyd, and catcher Austin Hedges. There is mutual interest in re-signing Bieber, though much might depend on how robust a market he finds coming off his surgery.
Clear Team Needs
- Starting pitching will likely be the priority. With Bieber, Cobb, and Boyd all set to become free agents this offseason and shaky play from most of their internal options, the Guardians have to be feeling some nerves around building an effective rotation in 2025. While they have a strong farm system, their top prospects are nearly all hitters. Trading from those stores for pitching help might be necessary, though it would go against their usual grain.
- At least one good left-handed hitter has to join the mix. In 2024, the Guardians put up a collective .685 against righties. That’s not great against the strong side. Manzardo figures to have a much larger role than he did this season, but that could come at the expense of Naylor--and even if not, there's room for upgrades from left-handed outfield options Daniel Schneeman and Will Brennan.
- They'll need a center fielder, if they don't tender and keep Thomas. They could solve that problem from within, but gambling with what seems like a winning window and hoping prospects plug holes would seem a bit too conservative.
Other Question Marks
- Will Manzardo, Brayan Rocchio, and Jhonkensy Noel take a step forward? Will the league adjust to them, and can they realize their potential?
- This year's first overall pick, Travis Bazzana, is expected to move quickly up the system. Upon being drafted, there was some thought that he could reach the majors within a full season. His initial showing was strong, but will he continue to prove it?
- Do the Guardians have faith in any of their pitchers who struggled this season? Have they identified injury or mechanical concerns with McKenzie, Allen, or Williams that they believe they can fix?
The Guardians have a lot of question marks. They need better starting pitching, they need to hit better, and they have an uncertain payroll picture. It’s possible they are forced to cut costs due to the TV situation. If so, anything is possible--even a sudden plunge back into mediocrity. Then again, they are the Guardians, and getting production out of guys you haven’t heard of is sort of their calling card. We'll soon see how real and foundational they think this semi-magical campaign was, based on how they behave once the World Series wraps.
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