Why Twins Fans May Want to Go To Target Field on Friday for Pablo Day

[Seth Stohs]

This weekend, the Twins will welcome the Baltimore Orioles to Target Field for the final series of the regular season. As disappointing as the past six weeks have been, there are several reasons to head to the ballpark for some Twins games this weekend. Maybe especially on Friday night. 

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

After such a major collapse, and a series loss to the Marlins at home, and arguably the worst loss of the season on Thursday night, I’m trying hard to think of reasons to get to the ballpark this weekend. 

The biggest reason, in my opinion, is because you won’t be able to watch the Twins again until spring training. That’s four-and-a-half months away. 

However, I have not been able to stop thinking that Friday night could be the last Pablo Day with the Twins. Am I overthinking this, or is this a realistic concern?

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Let’s go back and just remember Pablo Lopez’s time with the Twins. It started in January of 2023 when the Twins traded the popular Luis Arraez to the Marlins in exchange for Lopez (along with minor leaguers Jose Salas and Byron Chourio). 

Acquiring a potential top of the rotation starting pitcher was just what the Twins needed. Lopez got off to a strong start for the Twins and soon after the season started, he agreed to a four-year, $73 million contract extension to remain with the Twins through the 2027 season. Without that deal, he would be a free agent at the end of this season's World Series. 

Lopez made his first All Star game in 2023. He made 32 starts for the Twins and tossed 194 innings. He went 11-8 with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. He had 234 strikeouts which was 10.9 K/9, some of the biggest strikeout numbers since Johan Santana. 

After the regular season, he etched his name in Twins lore by ending their 0-for-18 playoff game losing streak, two decades in the making. Before Game 1 of the Wild Card series against the Toronto Blue Jays, Lopez walked into Target Field wearing a Johan Santana jersey, a tribute of sorts to the Twins Hall of Famer. More important, he tossed 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball on his way to the Win. Sonny Gray was strong in Game 2 and the Twins won their first series in more than 20 years. 

Twins fans were excited about the series win, and excited to have a true ace in Lopez.  But that took one further step when he threw seven shutout innings in Game 2 against the Houston Astros in the ALDS, improving to 2-0 in the playoffs. 

Then the two generations came together. Before Game 3 against the Astros, Johan Santana was set to throw out the ceremonial first pitch to Joe Mauer. The Twins asked Lopez to bring out the first-pitch ball and present it to Santana, his childhood hero. Before Lopez got to the mound, Santana stopped him, pulled off his jacket, and showed that he was wearing a Lopez jersey under it. 

That’s as far as it went for the Twins as they fell in four games to the Astros. 

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Early this season, the Twins and Lopez began Pablo Day. Every time Lopez makes a start at Target Field. Proceeds are spread between three local non-profits. They are Children’s Minnesota, Ruff Start Rescue, and Project Success. He is active with the University of Minnesota’s Children’s hospital and often visits patients facing childhood cancer. In other words, he has ingrained himself and given a lot back to the community. That’s why he is the Twins 2024 Roberto Clemente Award nominee.   

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Lopez hasn’t been quite as good in 2024 as he was last year, but he still had a really solid season. Coming into Friday night’s game, he is 15-9 with a 4.11 ERA (3.63 FIP) in 31 starts. In 179 2/3 innings, he has 190 strikeouts to just 38 walks. 

Last offseason, Twins fandom was at a high it hadn’t felt since probably 2002. It’s possible that the excitement level among Twins fans hadn’t been as high since 1991. The playoff losing streak was over. Pablo Lopez would be the anchor of the pitching staff, Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran were stalwarts in the bullpen. 

They have two $100 million players, and they have several high-ceiling young players (Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner) who were incredible down the stretch for the Twins. Larnach, Jeffers, Varland, Ryan, and Ober were continuing to show improvement. And Brooks Lee was looking ready. 

Spring Training. A time for excitement and belief. The grass is green and hope springs eternal. Except there was a cloud over everything. We heard that the Twins were hoping to cut $30 million in payroll from last year, but we kept wanting to believe that all it would take is Blake Snell being able to take a Correa-like deal and the Twins could jump on it. No. They didn’t.

And then came the Joe Pohlad interview with WCCO in which he insisted that they weren’t spending any more. “Right-sizing” is the term he used. They were not going to be adding Snell, or Bellinger, or really anyone else. 

The trade deadline illustrated that the Twins were not going to spend. That’s how you end up with Trevor Richards. And, the lone options at the point in bringing in more players was via waiver claims. That’s how you end up with Cole Irvin. 

And now as this frustrating season is coming to an end, we are already hearing that payroll will be about what it was last year, maybe even a little less. There are questions around their TV contract again. I believe radio rights are up for grabs again. The team went from being one of the top teams in baseball from mid-April until mid-August, but the complete collapse down the stretch meant that attendance stayed down all year. A little thinking tells us that means that revenues will end up being lower, and that will potentially tell ownership that payroll should maybe come down again. 

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So it is going to be a very interesting offseason. Sure, Max Kepler and his $10 million 2024 contract will come off the budget. Carlos Santana, Manuel Margot, and Kyle Farmer might mean another $15-16 million off the books.  

But then we start going the other way. Alex Kirilloff ($1.7M), Willi Castro ($5M), Ryan Jeffers ($5M), Jorge Alcala ($1.8M), Justin Topa ($1.6M), and Michael Tonkin will all be arbitration-eligible again. Certainly Castro, Jeffers, and Alcala are due for decent raises. 

In addition, Joe Ryan ($3M), Brock Stewart ($1M), Griffin Jax ($2.5M), Jhoan Duran ($2.75M), Bailey Ober ($3M), and Trevor Larnach ($2.25M) will be first-time arbitration-eligible players. And, Royce Lewis ($3.2M) is likely to be a Super-2 arbitration case this offseason. Jose Miranda will be close, but I would guess he’ll fall just short of Super-2 eligibility. 

By my very rough calculations, the Twins will likely offer 2025 contracts to 11 of these players and their increase from nearly-league minimum to Year 1 arbitration and the other arbitration eligibles will be about $20 million. In other words, losing Kepler, Santana and Margot from the books will basically be offset by these arbitration increases. 

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Which brings me back to reasons for going to Target Field on Friday night? Is it possible that it will mark the final Twins start of Pablo Lopez’s career? 

I want to say No. I want to think that Lopez is a building block that they would want to keep around for a number of reasons. 

However, after making $8 million in 2024. Lopez is scheduled to receive $21.5 million each of the next three seasons. That’s a $13.5 million increase in salary. Can the Twins afford to keep Lopez with his contract while maintaining the same payroll? What about a small decrease to the payroll? 

The Twins front office has their work cut out for them this offseason. It should be interesting to see what the plan might be and if Lopez fits into that plan. 

But for Friday night, the Twins have not been officially eliminated, and they are sending their best pitcher to the mound against the Orioles. Don’t spread the word, but depending on where the Twins set their 2025 payroll and what their offseason needs are, it’s very possible that Pablo Lopez will be making his final start in a Twins uniform on Friday night. 

But let’s hope not. 

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[Mike Sixel]

I'm betting he's traded to Boston or Baltimore. 

[Craig Arko]

That would be a sad thing. I also wonder about Correa wanting out.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Craig Arko said:

That would be a sad thing. I also wonder about Correa wanting out.

If they can deal him, they will. It's all about money at this point, I'd guess. 

[Craig Arko]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

If they can deal him, they will. It's all about money at this point, I'd guess. 

Welcome to America, I guess.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

Welcome to America, I guess.

We're both guessing ... I'm much more confident Lopez is dealt, but that would make CC likely to ask to be dealt. 

[Schmoeman5]

Dealing Lopez? That would be a real good sign to Twins players and fans. Can you say mutiny? 

[Parfigliano]

They trade Lopez and this years attendance will tower over next years.  

[DJL44]

If they "can't afford" Pablo Lopez then they will never be able to compete and I have no idea why they signed Carlos Correa (or Christian Vazquez).

If they absolutely need to dump $20M in salary the players to move are Vazquez and Paddack.

The reason to go Friday is the weather is terrific, Pablo is fun to root for and baseball is almost gone for months. Go out and enjoy a night at the ballpark.

[bean5302]

 

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

If they "can't afford" Pablo Lopez then they will never be able to compete and I have no idea why they signed Carlos Correa (or Christian Vazquez).

If they absolutely need to dump $20M in salary the players to move are Vazquez and Paddack.

The reason to go Friday is the weather is terrific, Pablo is fun to root for and baseball is almost gone for months. Go out and enjoy a night at the ballpark.

This is why ownership's 180* about-face in regard to "right sizing" and comparing themselves to other teams they didn't even research (Like AZ and BAL) was infuriating. Ownership accepted a long term approach, then wanted out of their investment.

[bean5302]

Lopez is the easiest way to temporarily relieve the payroll crunch, though his value isn't going to be as high as people might think. He'll bring back a top 50 prospect or an average org top 3 and a org top 5-10 or something like that. Maybe less considering how poorly he pitched for the first half of the season considering his $22MM salary coming in.

The biggest issue is the fact the Twins will no longer have a #1 or #2 caliber pitcher on the roster after doing so. It'd cost an enormous amount of capital to make up for that.

[NYCTK]

10 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Lopez is the easiest way to temporarily relieve the payroll crunch, though his value isn't going to be as high as people might think.

This is sadly correct. Lopez's contract is 3 years $65 mil. Not bad at all. But not really far off what he would get in free agency. Sonny Gray got 3 yrs $75 mil and was arguably the better pitcher each of the last two seasons So...that $10 million difference isn't all that indefensible. 

[Ctwink]

Well if they trade Correa away, as someone suggested above, they would certainly lessen the infield crunch.  Have Miranda at first, Willi at 2nd, Lee at short, and Rolls Royce at third - and shade Lee towards third to make up for Royce's deficiency in the field.  Then you sign a cheap UI who can play third half the season when Royce is out and wait for another infield prospect to coming knocking on the door.

[RpR]

[bean5302]

7 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

This is sadly correct. Lopez's contract is 3 years $65 mil. Not bad at all. But not really far off what he would get in free agency. Sonny Gray got 3 yrs $75 mil and was arguably the better pitcher each of the last two seasons So...that $10 million difference isn't all that indefensible. 

I think Lopez would get around his current AAV and his current years in FA, but probably an extra year for 4 at $80MMish. He's comparable to Eduardo Rodriguez IMHO. 
 

[bean5302]

10 minutes ago, Ctwink said:

Well if they trade Correa away, as someone suggested above, they would certainly lessen the infield crunch.  Have Miranda at first, Willi at 2nd, Lee at short, and Rolls Royce at third - and shade Lee towards third to make up for Royce's deficiency in the field.  Then you sign a cheap UI who can play third half the season when Royce is out and wait for another infield prospect to coming knocking on the door.

Correa has a full no trade clause and the Twins would have to eat a substantial portion of his salary to make it happen, IF Correa was willing to go to one of the 5 teams in MLB who might be interested.

[NYCTK]

27 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Correa has a full no trade clause and the Twins would have to eat a substantial portion of his salary to make it happen, IF Correa was willing to go to one of the 5 teams in MLB who might be interested.

The Yankees could use a 3B/2B, and the Braves could use a SS. I bet this is explored.  

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, NYCTK said:

The Yankees could use a 3B/2B, and the Braves could use a SS. I bet this is explored.  

The Giants need a SS

[rv78]

I'd much rather see them ask Correa if he'd waive his no trade clause and move him verses Lopez. Even if you only consider Lopez a #2 verses an Ace he would be much more difficult to replace and his contract is $10-15M less than Correa's. They have more options at SS than they do at #2 pitcher and if they look at Free Agency or a trade, acquiring a SS will be cheaper than a pitcher of Lopez's caliber.

[NYCTK]

8 minutes ago, rv78 said:

I'd much rather see them ask Correa if he'd waive his no trade clause and move him verses Lopez. Even if you only consider Lopez a #2 verses an Ace he would be much more difficult to replace and his contract is $10-15M less than Correa's. They have more options at SS than they do at #2 pitcher and if they look at Free Agency or a trade, acquiring a SS will be cheaper than a pitcher of Lopez's caliber.

He'd be a LOT harder to move. Whereas Pablo's contract isn't bad, just a pretty decent slightly below market contract that a lot of teams would happily take on, Correa's is an overpay. I don't think anyone thinks he'd get $130 mil / 4 years on the open market today. 

[rv78]

The top spending teams that need a SS might bite if he'd agree to go there. He's not going to win anything if he stays with the Twins. We've seen that for 3 years now and if ownership is going to keep cutting payroll there's nothing that is going to happen in the last 4 years of his contract that will take this team to the next level. His contract is a waste of resources that could be spent better elsewhere. 

[RpR]

Get rid of Correa, good way to replace Chicago at the bottom of the pack.

[mikelink45]

Ask Oakland how plans like those discussed work out. 

[NYCTK]

8 minutes ago, RpR said:

Get rid of Correa, good way to replace Chicago at the bottom of the pack.

Ironically, the White Sox outdrew the Twins this week. 

[LewFordLives]

Even with a healthy Joe Ryan the Twins only have three proven starters. If they move Lopez they'd essentially be raising the white flag before the season even starts (see White Sox). I think this is a very unlikely scenario.

[Whitey333]

Full no trade contracts mean very little.  They can easily be bought out.  I hope we keep Lopez but I have to admit that all options should be open this off season.  I would expect payroll to decline again next year.  Kind of shows some very poor planning.  Like why sign Correa and Buxton and Lopez to long term expensive deals if right sizing was going to be in the cards.  We found out a lot of the young "prospects" aren't ready and may never be ready for MLB.  Interesting off season ahead.  Before that we will receive the normal laundry list of excuses from the Twins organization for the epic collapse.  The soft soap has already begun.

 

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