Why Twins Fans May Want to Go To Target Field on Friday for Pablo Day

After such a major collapse, and a series loss to the Marlins at home, and arguably the worst loss of the season on Thursday night, I’m trying hard to think of reasons to get to the ballpark this weekend. 

The biggest reason, in my opinion, is because you won’t be able to watch the Twins again until spring training. That’s four-and-a-half months away. 

However, I have not been able to stop thinking that Friday night could be the last Pablo Day with the Twins. Am I overthinking this, or is this a realistic concern?

Let’s go back and just remember Pablo Lopez’s time with the Twins. It started in January of 2023 when the Twins traded the popular Luis Arraez to the Marlins in exchange for Lopez (along with minor leaguers Jose Salas and Byron Chourio). 

Acquiring a potential top of the rotation starting pitcher was just what the Twins needed. Lopez got off to a strong start for the Twins and soon after the season started, he agreed to a four-year, $73 million contract extension to remain with the Twins through the 2027 season. Without that deal, he would be a free agent at the end of this season's World Series. 

Lopez made his first All Star game in 2023. He made 32 starts for the Twins and tossed 194 innings. He went 11-8 with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. He had 234 strikeouts which was 10.9 K/9, some of the biggest strikeout numbers since Johan Santana. 

After the regular season, he etched his name in Twins lore by ending their 0-for-18 playoff game losing streak, two decades in the making. Before Game 1 of the Wild Card series against the Toronto Blue Jays, Lopez walked into Target Field wearing a Johan Santana jersey, a tribute of sorts to the Twins Hall of Famer. More important, he tossed 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball on his way to the Win. Sonny Gray was strong in Game 2 and the Twins won their first series in more than 20 years. 

Twins fans were excited about the series win, and excited to have a true ace in Lopez.  But that took one further step when he threw seven shutout innings in Game 2 against the Houston Astros in the ALDS, improving to 2-0 in the playoffs. 

Then the two generations came together. Before Game 3 against the Astros, Johan Santana was set to throw out the ceremonial first pitch to Joe Mauer. The Twins asked Lopez to bring out the first-pitch ball and present it to Santana, his childhood hero. Before Lopez got to the mound, Santana stopped him, pulled off his jacket, and showed that he was wearing a Lopez jersey under it. 

That’s as far as it went for the Twins as they fell in four games to the Astros. 

Early this season, the Twins and Lopez began Pablo Day. Every time Lopez makes a start at Target Field. Proceeds are spread between three local non-profits. They are Children’s Minnesota, Ruff Start Rescue, and Project Success. He is active with the University of Minnesota’s Children’s hospital and often visits patients facing childhood cancer. In other words, he has ingrained himself and given a lot back to the community. That’s why he is the Twins 2024 Roberto Clemente Award nominee.   

Lopez hasn’t been quite as good in 2024 as he was last year, but he still had a really solid season. Coming into Friday night’s game, he is 15-9 with a 4.11 ERA (3.63 FIP) in 31 starts. In 179 2/3 innings, he has 190 strikeouts to just 38 walks. 

Last offseason, Twins fandom was at a high it hadn’t felt since probably 2002. It’s possible that the excitement level among Twins fans hadn’t been as high since 1991. The playoff losing streak was over. Pablo Lopez would be the anchor of the pitching staff, Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran were stalwarts in the bullpen. 

They have two $100 million players, and they have several high-ceiling young players (Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner) who were incredible down the stretch for the Twins. Larnach, Jeffers, Varland, Ryan, and Ober were continuing to show improvement. And Brooks Lee was looking ready. 

Spring Training. A time for excitement and belief. The grass is green and hope springs eternal. Except there was a cloud over everything. We heard that the Twins were hoping to cut $30 million in payroll from last year, but we kept wanting to believe that all it would take is Blake Snell being able to take a Correa-like deal and the Twins could jump on it. No. They didn’t.

And then came the Joe Pohlad interview with WCCO in which he insisted that they weren’t spending any more. “Right-sizing” is the term he used. They were not going to be adding Snell, or Bellinger, or really anyone else. 

The trade deadline illustrated that the Twins were not going to spend. That’s how you end up with Trevor Richards. And, the lone options at the point in bringing in more players was via waiver claims. That’s how you end up with Cole Irvin. 

And now as this frustrating season is coming to an end, we are already hearing that payroll will be about what it was last year, maybe even a little less. There are questions around their TV contract again. I believe radio rights are up for grabs again. The team went from being one of the top teams in baseball from mid-April until mid-August, but the complete collapse down the stretch meant that attendance stayed down all year. A little thinking tells us that means that revenues will end up being lower, and that will potentially tell ownership that payroll should maybe come down again. 

So it is going to be a very interesting offseason. Sure, Max Kepler and his $10 million 2024 contract will come off the budget. Carlos Santana, Manuel Margot, and Kyle Farmer might mean another $15-16 million off the books.  

But then we start going the other way. Alex Kirilloff ($1.7M), Willi Castro ($5M), Ryan Jeffers ($5M), Jorge Alcala ($1.8M), Justin Topa ($1.6M), and Michael Tonkin will all be arbitration-eligible again. Certainly Castro, Jeffers, and Alcala are due for decent raises. 

In addition, Joe Ryan ($3M), Brock Stewart ($1M), Griffin Jax ($2.5M), Jhoan Duran ($2.75M), Bailey Ober ($3M), and Trevor Larnach ($2.25M) will be first-time arbitration-eligible players. And, Royce Lewis ($3.2M) is likely to be a Super-2 arbitration case this offseason. Jose Miranda will be close, but I would guess he’ll fall just short of Super-2 eligibility. 

By my very rough calculations, the Twins will likely offer 2025 contracts to 11 of these players and their increase from nearly-league minimum to Year 1 arbitration and the other arbitration eligibles will be about $20 million. In other words, losing Kepler, Santana and Margot from the books will basically be offset by these arbitration increases. 

Which brings me back to reasons for going to Target Field on Friday night? Is it possible that it will mark the final Twins start of Pablo Lopez’s career? 

I want to say No. I want to think that Lopez is a building block that they would want to keep around for a number of reasons. 

However, after making $8 million in 2024. Lopez is scheduled to receive $21.5 million each of the next three seasons. That’s a $13.5 million increase in salary. Can the Twins afford to keep Lopez with his contract while maintaining the same payroll? What about a small decrease to the payroll? 

The Twins front office has their work cut out for them this offseason. It should be interesting to see what the plan might be and if Lopez fits into that plan. 

But for Friday night, the Twins have not been officially eliminated, and they are sending their best pitcher to the mound against the Orioles. Don’t spread the word, but depending on where the Twins set their 2025 payroll and what their offseason needs are, it’s very possible that Pablo Lopez will be making his final start in a Twins uniform on Friday night. 

But let’s hope not.