If the Twins Get In, Can They Find the Right October Recipe?

[Cody Christie]

Baseball’s grueling 162-game schedule culminates in a sprint to the finish line during the postseason. If the Twins get in, do they have the right recipe to make a run in October?

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

There are no dominant teams in baseball this season as it is on pace to be the first season since 2014 where no club will finish with 100 wins. The last season without a 100-win team saw the Giants and Royals face off in the World Series, and both teams failed to win 90 games in the regular season. Only six 100-win teams have won the World Series since 1995. Last season, the Rangers scuffled their way into the playoffs and found a way to get hot at the right time. Baseball is different in October, and some teams built for regular season success don’t have the recipe to win when the postseason begins.   

MLB’s playoff format lends itself to parity, especially with more Wild Card spots. Baseball is a game of individual match-ups disguised as a team sport. In other major sports, one superstar player can carry a team to postseason success. Baseball doesn’t fit that mold. The Angels had three inner-circle Hall of Fame members in recent seasons (Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and Albert Pujols) and failed to find any postseason success. The Twins need to find a way to qualify for October, and then they need to ensure their recipe for success can be optimized. 

Starting Pitching Recipe
Minnesota’s top two starting pitchers, Pablo López and Bailey Ober, match up well against any opponent's top rotation options. Things get murky for the Twins, especially with Joe Ryan out of the picture. Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa would be the team’s other starting options, and both have produced inconsistent performances in the season’s final month. It’s also important to note that the Twins' free fall in recent weeks puts them at a disadvantage. Some teams will be able to line up their best pitchers for a potential Wild Card Series, but the Twins might need to use their top arms to qualify for the postseason over the final weekend.

Ober is scheduled to start on Tuesday against Miami, which lines him up to pitch the season’s final game on Sunday versus Baltimore. The Twins will likely need to win both of those games. López started on Sunday, making him available again for Friday’s game against the Orioles. In this scenario, López and Ober would be unavailable for Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. López could start Game 2 on regular rest, but Ober would be on short rest for Game 3 if he pitches on Sunday. 

Offensive Recipe
Minnesota’s offense has scuffled in recent weeks to the point where the Twins rank among the league’s worst-hitting groups. Since August 1st, the Twins have the AL’s third-lowest wRC+ (78), with only the White Sox and Royals rankings lower. Over that same stretch, Minnesota’s power disappeared, with an SLG, OPS, and wOBA ranking 28th overall. The Twins have scored three runs or fewer in ten of the 21 games played this month. It has been painful to watch, especially on nights when the pitching staff has held the opposition to three runs or fewer (eight times). 

Playoff baseball is a different animal compared to what batters see in the regular season. Home runs become critical as teams rely on their top starting pitchers and relievers. There are rarely innings where a team can string three or four hits to score a run. Instead, teams must get a bloop and a blast to push across multiple runs. Despite some September struggles, the Twins offense is hitting the ball hard with 37% of the time, ranking 17th in MLB. Minnesota also continues to pull the ball at a 43.0% rate, the fourth-highest total in the AL during September. The team's ability to hit the ball hard to the pull side might result in more luck in October. 

Bullpen Recipe
Twins manager Rocco Baldelli has gotten plenty of criticism for his bullpen usage in the season’s second half. However, he has few levers to pull in an untrustworthy group. Fans witnessed the bullpen cough up multiple leads in Cleveland before using nine pitchers for a 12-inning marathon win in Boston. Griffin Jax has been the team’s best reliever this season and has shown some vulnerabilities in the second half. Jhoan Durán and Cole Sands have also played important roles, but a playoff team needs more than three relief options. 

Minnesota has relied on Jax for most of the season, and he might be showing signs of depleting down the stretch. His -0.28 WPA is the third-lowest total this month, with only Ronny Henriquez and Cole Irvin ranking lower. Some of that negative WPA results from the Twins forcing him into challenging situations in recent weeks. Duran (0.57 WPA) and Sands (0.31 WPA) are joined by Scott Blewett (0.34 WPA) as the trio of relievers with a positive WPA this month. Relievers work in small sample sizes, so reading too much into the bullpen’s September struggles is tough. There is some hope that Chris Paddack and Justin Topa will rejoin the team this week, but the team is running out of games for those upgrades to make an impact. 

The Twins have a large task facing them this week, with their playoff spot out of their own control. Thankfully, there are some positive signs among the team’s core group even as the losses have compiled. Minnesota’s recipe might not be fully functional in the regular season, but the playoffs offer a chance for a fresh start. 

If the Twins get in, can they find the right recipe to win in October? Does it help that there are no dominant teams in 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[chpettit19]

That rainout on Saturday was actually pretty brutal for their playoff rotation. If Lopez had started Saturday he'd have been good to go Thursday on normal rest and then again for game 1 on normal rest. Instead they're either going to have to lock a playoff spot up early (highly unlikely) or they're going bullpen game for game 1 and may see their season end without Ober throwing a playoff pitch.

[BH67]

"MLB’s playoff format lends itself to parity, especially with more Wild Card spots. Baseball is a game of individual matchups in the context of a team sport. In other major sports, one superstar player can carry a team to postseason success. By and large, baseball doesn’t fit that mold, although it becomes a bit more plausible in a tournament setting."

Yep...and the only two factors that seem to ensure a greater likelihood of success are 1) Bruce Bochy, and 2) a good bullpen with Cleveland's depth. I think that Falvine is trying to build the latter in-house, but it's taking longer than we all hope, with dire implications when plugging holes via free agency. It's a crapshoot otherwise.

I note that the 1987 Twins entered the ALCS on a 5-game losing streak. Of course, they had clinched the West title before that started.

[Karbo]

IF Paddack is ready have him start game 1 using Festa or SWR for bulk relief. Between starter and reliever they could hopefully get thru the first 5 and hopefully keep it close and let the other guys finish it. If 3rd game is needed I would think Ober would go a day early. Afterall its do or die time!

[DJL44]

26 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

they're going bullpen game for game 1

Which I hope means Matthews / Festa / Woods-Richardson instead of the actual bullpen.

[bean5302]

Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober match up well against anybody? Lopez and Ober are good, but they're not great as a 1-2 punch. There are plenty of other rotations in the playoffs who have a significant advantage over Lopez and Ober as a 1-2, not to mention far more depth than the Twins after that.

The Twins have 2 potential opponents in in the Wild Card round. The Astros, who have a rotation which curb stomps Lopez, Ober and then everybody else we have 2x as hard after that, and the Orioles who lost their ace and #3 pitchers this year. In that instance, the Orioles do match up with the Twins top rotation options.

The Astros curb stomp the Twins' options.
The Royals curb stomp the Twins' options.
The Yankees are better than the Twins.
The Tigers are probably about on par with the Twins.
The Orioles are probably about on par with the Twins.
The Guardians are at a significant disadvantage on paper vs. the Twins.

Not to mention, the Twins have to score runs, and since 9/1, the Twins are the 26th ranked offense in MLB with a wRC+ of a miserable 78. Luckily, at least Kansas City is also terrible over that span as well. The Orioles haven't scored the runs, but their bats should have.
wRC+ by AL playoff teams since 9/1
Mariners = 133
Astros = 115
Guardians = 98
Yankees = 98
Tigers = 96
Orioles = 95
Twins = 78
Royals = 67

[bean5302]

I'd like the Twins to win the World Series, but I just don't see this team as a legitimate threat to anybody right now. 

[howeda7]

48 minutes ago, Karbo said:

IF Paddack is ready have him start game 1 using Festa or SWR for bulk relief. Between starter and reliever they could hopefully get thru the first 5 and hopefully keep it close and let the other guys finish it. If 3rd game is needed I would think Ober would go a day early. Afterall its do or die time!

Good lord no. Paddack wasn't good when healthy so we're going to run him out there with 3 months of rust? Festa would have to start game 1 if they stay on the current rotation. It likely doesn't matter.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober match up well against anybody? Lopez and Ober are good, but they're not great as a 1-2 punch. There are plenty of other rotations in the playoffs who have a significant advantage over Lopez and Ober as a 1-2, not to mention far more depth than the Twins after that.
 

In the AL, they actually do match up OK. Aside from the Astros, no one has a great top 2. Even the Yankees highly paid 1-2 punch of Cole and Rodon hasn't been that great this year. But, they have by far the advantage once you get into a 3rd or 4th starter. The potential playoff Mariners have a very good rotation as we all know, and they're breathing down the Twins necks, but again the Twins hold the tiebreaker on them. 

Now the NL, that's a different beast. The NL is so much better than the AL this year. 

[BH67]

Many of us (myself included) are feeding our inner Veruca Salt in the comments. I want the Twins' malaise fixed, right now, no matter how amorphous the malaise. Like snowflakes, our individual remedies are unique even if they look alike.

At this stage the only path forward is triage, not utopia. It's not glittery but it's the only way to achieve a desirable end result in 2024. For now the focus is simple: get in the playoffs. We can concern ourselves with options beyond that once the focus is realized.

[DJL44]

They really want to have a spot locked up before the final game so they can bump Ober to Game 1. Then you would see Ober / Lopez / rookie.

[minman1982]

52 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They really want to have a spot locked up before the final game so they can bump Ober to Game 1. Then you would see Ober / Lopez / rookie.

Hopefully, the offense can get it together so that we could see Ober/Lopez/days off.

[minman1982]

I am not confident that this team is going to even get in the playoffs. I would give the Tigers the inside track to get one of the two remaining playoff spot, they get the privilege of hosting the AAAA team from Chicago for their last three games and have been playing better than either the Twins or Royals down the stretch.

Both the Twins and Royals have stunk the last few weeks. Schedule wise, the Twins might have a slightly more favorable schedule since they get a pretty bad Marlins team and than an Orioles team that should have punched their ticket to the playoffs by that point. The Royals have the Nats (who are doing better than the Marlins) and the Braves who may still be contending for their own playoff spot.

I would bet the Tigers get in and then it is a coin flip between the Twins and Royals. I said last week that the Twins needed a series win in Boston to stay in the race. I did not predict the Royals getting swept over the weekend. The reality is that neither the Twins nor the Royals have played baseball that makes them playoff worthy over the last few weeks.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, NYCTK said:

In the AL, they actually do match up OK. Aside from the Astros, no one has a great top 2. Even the Yankees highly paid 1-2 punch of Cole and Rodon hasn't been that great this year. But, they have by far the advantage once you get into a 3rd or 4th starter. The potential playoff Mariners have a very good rotation as we all know, and they're breathing down the Twins necks, but again the Twins hold the tiebreaker on them. 

Now the NL, that's a different beast. The NL is so much better than the AL this year. 

 Yankees 8/1+
Gerrit Cole = 2.53 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 3.87 xFIP, 78% QS2 (pretty awful, indeed)
Clarke Schmidt* = 1.78 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 3.86 xFIP 78% QS2
Carlos Rodon = 3.10 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 3.57 xFIP, 67% QS2
Nestor Cortes = 2.62 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 4.15 xFIP, 63% QS2
*Went back 9 starts, was on IL after May 26 until his return Sept 7
Feel free to look at what the Twins are countering with again. I mean... the reigning unanimous Cy Young who averages like 5 WAR per season (30 WAR) for the last 7 years vs. a 3 WAR pitcher like Lopez (16 WAR)? After that, they've got Clark Schmidt who's been lights out recently and a resurgent Carlos Rodon. Cortes has been getting the results, too. Pick whomever you want. They're at least as good as Ober. Better ERA's and FIP's, just as consistent.

Royals 8/1+
Michael Wacha = 2.68 ERA, 2.79 FIP, 4.13 xFIP, 88% QS2
Cole Ragans = 2.94 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 3.78 xFIP, 78% QS2
Seth Lugo = 3.90 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 4.03 xFIP, 60% QS2
Michael Lorenzen = 1.85 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 5.00 xFIP, 60% QS2*
*Left 8/27's start with a hamstring injury. Had a rehab start on 9/16 in AAA
I'll take the Royals combo of Wacha and Ragans, and their depth is certainly much more reliable as well. 

Mariners 8/1+
George Kirby = 5.14 ERA, 4.92 FIP, 4.05 xFIP, 44% QS2
Logan Gilbert = 3.58 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 2.49 xFIP, 56% QS2
Bryce Miller = 1.86 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 3.56 xFIP, 70% QS2
Bryan Woo = 3.59 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 3.68 xFIP, 70% QS2
Kirby and Gilbert have struggled with consistency so they look vulnerable, but Gilbert looks to be a case of bad luck while Kirby looks like he might be putting things together. Certainly better depth than the Twins, but I wouldn't consider the top of the Mariners to be an advantage over Lopez/Ober at the exact moment. Tough to say where the Mariners would put Kirby.

Tigers 8/1+
Tarik Skubal = 2.78 ERA, 2.38 FIP, 2.93 xFIP, 78% QS2 - A top 3 Cy Young Favorite
Brant Hurter* = 2.61 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 3.13 xFIP, N/A
Reese Olson** = 3.59 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 3.67 xFIP, 44% QS2
Case Mize*** = 3.97 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 3.75 xFIP, 22% QS2
Keider Montero = 3.86 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 4.12 xFIP, 50% QS2
*Not typically a starter, though he often goes about 5.0 innings after an opener.
**Olson's been out with an injury until just recently. Used last 9 starts
***Mize rarely pitches deep into games, he's been out until recently, used last 9 starts.
While Skubal is hands down a favorite vs. Lopez, it's a toss up after that as the Tigers' starters have hardly been reliable this year. No idea how they'd deploy them against the Twins in the event the teams somehow met.

Again, the only team the Twins have a significant advantage over in terms of 1-2 punch or the rest of the options, is the Guardians. The Twins are a push against some teams, but are clearly outmatched by many.

Lopez (a back end #2) and Ober (who looks like maybe a #3 now?) are seriously overrated around here.

[D.C Twins]

This article won't age well 

[mikelink45]

Not a good day for this speculation. There is still a chance so we have to keep followings. It really doesn't matter who we play. It would just be nice to play someone, but at this point finishing the season isn't something that is making us consider what comes next in the playoffs. The first game against the Marlins was really disappointing and seeing both Ober and Lopez fail is really a shot in the gut. 

I don't see a lot of positive in the comments how about finishing in the playoffs as much as I do about changes that everybody would like to see for next year and beyond.  

[Aerodeliria]

I'm guessing that the best recipe for October for the Twins is going to be Pumpkin Spice Lattes in the clubhouse after playing 9...holes that is--not innings...

[h2oface]

A lot of words spent on what is not going to happen. No playoffs this year, even though they were 17 games above .500 on August 18. Hell, if they finish above .500, it will now be a win. Call me negative if you like, but when the prediction turns out right, well...... reality is not to be afraid of.

[Trov]

Only way we could is if the offense learns to hit with RISP, or start hitting a ton of HR.  Hard to score if you do neither, which is what they have been doing.  We get hits to get guys on and never score them lately.  By not scoring at all, we put too much pressure on the pitching.  They know if they give up 1 run odds of us winning are almost 0. 

[bean5302]

I decided to look ahead at probable starters/order. The Twins cannot hold anything back by skipping a start to restructure their preferred starters since their back is against the wall. Lopez and Ober likely start against the Orioles the last 2 games of the season... meaning the Twins playoff rotation looks like:

10/1 Wildcard Game 1 - Simeon Woods Richardson vs. Zach Eflin (@BAL) or Hunter Brown (@HOU)
10/2 Wildcard Game 2 - David Festa vs. Corbin Burnes (@BAL) or Framber Valdez (@HOU)
10/3 Wildcard Game 3 - Pablo Lopez vs. Cade Povich (@BAL) or Yusei Kikuchi (@HOU)

Doesn't look pretty.

[IndyTwinsFan]

Sadly, but predictably, none of this matters anymore, as their season will end at the conclusion of Sunday's game against the Orioles.  

It would be fitting if it was via walk-off loss and the bats utterly disappeared.