If the Twins Get In, Can They Find the Right October Recipe?

IF Paddack is ready have him start game 1 using Festa or SWR for bulk relief. Between starter and reliever they could hopefully get thru the first 5 and hopefully keep it close and let the other guys finish it. If 3rd game is needed I would think Ober would go a day early. Afterall its do or die time!

Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober match up well against anybody? Lopez and Ober are good, but they're not great as a 1-2 punch. There are plenty of other rotations in the playoffs who have a significant advantage over Lopez and Ober as a 1-2, not to mention far more depth than the Twins after that.

The Twins have 2 potential opponents in in the Wild Card round. The Astros, who have a rotation which curb stomps Lopez, Ober and then everybody else we have 2x as hard after that, and the Orioles who lost their ace and #3 pitchers this year. In that instance, the Orioles do match up with the Twins top rotation options.

The Astros curb stomp the Twins' options.
The Royals curb stomp the Twins' options.
The Yankees are better than the Twins.
The Tigers are probably about on par with the Twins.
The Orioles are probably about on par with the Twins.
The Guardians are at a significant disadvantage on paper vs. the Twins.

Not to mention, the Twins have to score runs, and since 9/1, the Twins are the 26th ranked offense in MLB with a wRC+ of a miserable 78. Luckily, at least Kansas City is also terrible over that span as well. The Orioles haven't scored the runs, but their bats should have.
wRC+ by AL playoff teams since 9/1
Mariners = 133
Astros = 115
Guardians = 98
Yankees = 98
Tigers = 96
Orioles = 95
Twins = 78
Royals = 67

I'd like the Twins to win the World Series, but I just don't see this team as a legitimate threat to anybody right now. 

3 hours ago, NYCTK said:

In the AL, they actually do match up OK. Aside from the Astros, no one has a great top 2. Even the Yankees highly paid 1-2 punch of Cole and Rodon hasn't been that great this year. But, they have by far the advantage once you get into a 3rd or 4th starter. The potential playoff Mariners have a very good rotation as we all know, and they're breathing down the Twins necks, but again the Twins hold the tiebreaker on them. 

Now the NL, that's a different beast. The NL is so much better than the AL this year. 

 Yankees 8/1+
Gerrit Cole = 2.53 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 3.87 xFIP, 78% QS2 (pretty awful, indeed)
Clarke Schmidt* = 1.78 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 3.86 xFIP 78% QS2
Carlos Rodon = 3.10 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 3.57 xFIP, 67% QS2
Nestor Cortes = 2.62 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 4.15 xFIP, 63% QS2
*Went back 9 starts, was on IL after May 26 until his return Sept 7
Feel free to look at what the Twins are countering with again. I mean... the reigning unanimous Cy Young who averages like 5 WAR per season (30 WAR) for the last 7 years vs. a 3 WAR pitcher like Lopez (16 WAR)? After that, they've got Clark Schmidt who's been lights out recently and a resurgent Carlos Rodon. Cortes has been getting the results, too. Pick whomever you want. They're at least as good as Ober. Better ERA's and FIP's, just as consistent.

Royals 8/1+
Michael Wacha = 2.68 ERA, 2.79 FIP, 4.13 xFIP, 88% QS2
Cole Ragans = 2.94 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 3.78 xFIP, 78% QS2
Seth Lugo = 3.90 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 4.03 xFIP, 60% QS2
Michael Lorenzen = 1.85 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 5.00 xFIP, 60% QS2*
*Left 8/27's start with a hamstring injury. Had a rehab start on 9/16 in AAA
I'll take the Royals combo of Wacha and Ragans, and their depth is certainly much more reliable as well. 

Mariners 8/1+
George Kirby = 5.14 ERA, 4.92 FIP, 4.05 xFIP, 44% QS2
Logan Gilbert = 3.58 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 2.49 xFIP, 56% QS2
Bryce Miller = 1.86 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 3.56 xFIP, 70% QS2
Bryan Woo = 3.59 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 3.68 xFIP, 70% QS2
Kirby and Gilbert have struggled with consistency so they look vulnerable, but Gilbert looks to be a case of bad luck while Kirby looks like he might be putting things together. Certainly better depth than the Twins, but I wouldn't consider the top of the Mariners to be an advantage over Lopez/Ober at the exact moment. Tough to say where the Mariners would put Kirby.

Tigers 8/1+
Tarik Skubal = 2.78 ERA, 2.38 FIP, 2.93 xFIP, 78% QS2 - A top 3 Cy Young Favorite
Brant Hurter* = 2.61 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 3.13 xFIP, N/A
Reese Olson** = 3.59 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 3.67 xFIP, 44% QS2
Case Mize*** = 3.97 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 3.75 xFIP, 22% QS2
Keider Montero = 3.86 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 4.12 xFIP, 50% QS2
*Not typically a starter, though he often goes about 5.0 innings after an opener.
**Olson's been out with an injury until just recently. Used last 9 starts
***Mize rarely pitches deep into games, he's been out until recently, used last 9 starts.
While Skubal is hands down a favorite vs. Lopez, it's a toss up after that as the Tigers' starters have hardly been reliable this year. No idea how they'd deploy them against the Twins in the event the teams somehow met.

Again, the only team the Twins have a significant advantage over in terms of 1-2 punch or the rest of the options, is the Guardians. The Twins are a push against some teams, but are clearly outmatched by many.

Lopez (a back end #2) and Ober (who looks like maybe a #3 now?) are seriously overrated around here.

I decided to look ahead at probable starters/order. The Twins cannot hold anything back by skipping a start to restructure their preferred starters since their back is against the wall. Lopez and Ober likely start against the Orioles the last 2 games of the season... meaning the Twins playoff rotation looks like:

10/1 Wildcard Game 1 - Simeon Woods Richardson vs. Zach Eflin (@BAL) or Hunter Brown (@HOU)
10/2 Wildcard Game 2 - David Festa vs. Corbin Burnes (@BAL) or Framber Valdez (@HOU)
10/3 Wildcard Game 3 - Pablo Lopez vs. Cade Povich (@BAL) or Yusei Kikuchi (@HOU)

Doesn't look pretty.

Sadly, but predictably, none of this matters anymore, as their season will end at the conclusion of Sunday's game against the Orioles.  

It would be fitting if it was via walk-off loss and the bats utterly disappeared.