Simeon Woods Richardson is on Fumes. Can He Refuel One More Time This Month?

[Matt Braun]

Close to concluding a tremendous rookie campaign, Simeon Woods Richardson has lost the magic that made him so effective—and it’s helping sink the Twins.

Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Simeon Woods Richardson’s last three starts have been dreadful. He’s walked more than he’s struck out; he hasn’t gone more than 4 ⅔ innings in any outing; and the velocity that occasionally shot up to the mid-90s is back in the gutters. Just one fastball over this recent stretch crossed the 95-MPH threshold. The Twins only won one of those games.

To some degree, Woods Richardson walked a thin line even when the going was good; his xERA, FIP, and xFIP—which are real stats, not leftover bureaucracies from Roosevelt’s New Deal—all treated him as more of an ordinary hurler, not the mid-to-low 3s ERA stud as which he masqueraded. He wasn’t one for swings and misses, and walked batters at an average rate. The batted-ball data was fine. Maybe there was some nebulous force guiding his success, but all signs pointed toward a decent dose of good fortune driving his best months, always ready to rescind its blessings at the drop of a pop-up or the strike of a pebble. So it goes.

But that downturn—be it regression or fatigue—puts the Twins in an awkward position. They’ve relied heavily on their youngster this year—likely far more than they wished—and this stumble mere steps before the end of the marathon stretches their already thin rotation to deli pastrami levels. They can’t do much more than hope he can crawl across the finish line, because the alternative is more of the 2024 Louie Varland experience. Hey, I guess Rich Hill is available again. 

Of course, that depth was only drained thanks to Joe Ryan’s injury, which in turn accentuated the foolishness of Minnesota’s financial overlords to restrict their front office at the trade deadline, but opening that can of worms only adds to the chorus of void-screaming that accomplishes nothing. Your time would be better spent recording an audiobook for your deaf neighbor. 

For the record, as far as Woods Richardson’s performance goes, I don’t see him falling off and succumbing to regression, as much as a young pitcher breaking down near the end of the heftiest workload he has had to face as a pro. His previous career high, set last year, was 118 ⅓ innings; he’s at 138 ⅓ so far in 2024. That’ll take a toll on any 23-year-old. 

The good news is that this is mainly a regular-season issue, which is becoming an ever-dwindling facet to strategize for. The postseason—which the Twins are still likely to make, despite their recent lethargic play—is for two starters and a cloud of dust, exactly the model Minnesota is perfectly built for. Pablo López and Bailey Ober are solid first options; who cares about the rest? The Rangers just won the World Series on the backs of Nathan Eovaldi, Jordan Montgomery, and a Voltron effort of whatever scraps and crumbs they could find sitting around. If you’re ever worried about Game 3, then you have other issues to solve.

Woods Richardson isn’t the main reason for Minnesota’s stall in performance, but he is one of them. Injury woes and an unreasonable payroll burden thrust the righty into the spotlight, and those same forces will keep him there, despite his fall-off. It’s symbolic, really: the Twins' young starting rotation—once a force of good—is now molding from the inside, morphing into a dilapidated version of itself with no immediate remedy. All we can do is hope the damage isn’t too great.

View full article

[Karbo]

SWR has been pretty good for most of the year, Surprising me. His recent track record gave me no confidence. But I'm thinking he's probably hit the wall, and turning back into a pumpkin.

[Doctor Gast]

SWR has pitched far beyond everybody's expectations & now you expect him to pitch well beyond his expected MLB innings & still maintain his previous performance? It's to be expected to have some fatigue that affects their performance from our rookies. It shouldn't take much to see that we'd desperately need help in the rotation in the offseason & that DeSclavani wasn't going to contribute much. The 3 rookies especially SWR have admirably stepped up but there is a limit to what they are able to do.

[Peter]

SWR has pitched great and quite honestly saved our season!!! This Pennet race will only make home better going forward along with our other rookies!!! Twins future looks bright!!! We are loaded with top prospects for years!!  

[Trov]

He very well may be running on fumes, but we would not be in the race without him.  Hopefully he can build off this year and be someone we can count on for year to come.  Also, hopefully we can get by like Rangers did.  Only way we do is if our offense picks it up, but that has been an issue too.  It just seems like the whole team is breaking down at the end of the season, not what you want to see, you want to see them going on strong. 

[DJL44]

The walks and the drop in velocity are concerning. Pitching while fatigued can lead to injury due to breakdown in mechanics.

[Riverbrian]

Starting Pitching health has been good again this year. It's been Two years in a row of above normal health. Knock on Wood that we continue to have comparatively good health on the mound. Or should I say... knock on Woods Richardson that we continue. 

The Twins have utilized 10 starters this year. Make it 8 really if you take out the two opener starts by Okert and Henriquez. 

In comparison... the Brewers have utilized 17 different starters to get through the season and they have impressively gotten through the season. 

The pipeline that has produced SWR, Festa and Matthews is key to the survival of a franchise like the Twins  and it's the key to survival for teams like the Brewers. It's Key for the survival of the Dodgers. You can't just pick 5 at the start of the season and survive 162 games.  

SWR has done a nice job... He has thus far thrown 11 innings more than he threw last year. 3 more starts left for him with 17 games left on the schedule. Projects to maybe 26 to 29 innings over last year. They are supposed to increase work load year after year. 

Come playoff time... It's all hands on deck. Starters will work out of the pen if necessary. He's got a playoff roster spot at this moment. Let's see how he finishes. I have no reason to doubt him. 

I will take this opportunity to say this: This is why Buyers Buy at the deadline. 

  

 

[LambchoP]

Sim has basically saved this rotation from falling apart. He pitched better than anyone expected almost all year. He's worn down lately, but he's never pitched this many games. As long as they don't overuse him and cause an injury, I think he'll be a solid number 4 in the rotation next year.

[NYCTK]

A lot of fans are rightfully mocking of the thought that the Twins are exhausted late in the season, and I'm right there with them...with the exception of the pitching staff. Pitching is so damn tough on the arm, whether they're in the rotation or the bullpen, throwing consistently for 6 months is really quite a task. 

I don't hold against Simeon his recent struggles. I still think he's a solid arm, but asking him for anything more this season is hard to do.

If only this was entirely foreseeable and the team could have acquired backup at the trade deadline. Oh well! 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

SWR has pitched far beyond everybody's expectations & now you expect him to pitch well beyond his expected MLB innings & still maintain his previous performance? It's to be expected to have some fatigue that affects their performance from our rookies. It shouldn't take much to see that we'd desperately need help in the rotation in the offseason & that DeSclavani wasn't going to contribute much. The 3 rookies especially SWR have admirably stepped up but there is a limit to what they are able to do.

DeScalf contributed nothing.  Wasted payroll on a team that knew it was cutting payroll when they signed him.

[Parfigliano]

20 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

Sim has basically saved this rotation from falling apart. He pitched better than anyone expected almost all year. He's worn down lately, but he's never pitched this many games. As long as they don't overuse him and cause an injury, I think he'll be a solid number 4 in the rotation next year.

I can see SWR passing Ryan and being #3 next year.

[Road trip]

You had me at  his xERA, FIP, and xFIP—which are real stats, not leftover bureaucracies from Roosevelt’s New Deal

[JD-TWINS]

He’s done a nice job!

He’s 23 - younger than Festa.

His ERA jumped nearly half a run after his rough start v. the Mets. His innings, per the author, are up 20 innings over last year at this point……..20 innings over 23 starts isn't a big leap from one year to the next.

I’m hopeful he’ll hold together and give Team at least 4 decent innings per start from here through end of the month.

……………..

Lopez quietly 15-8 with ERA down to 3.88…….165 innings with 183 K’s. Ober is 12-6 with a 3.77 ERA and a WHIP under 1.00. These two can take up a bunch of slack in a playoff series.

………..

Zebby has got to give Team a chance in his last 3 starts!!!

[NYCTK]

13 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

DeScalf contributed nothing.  Wasted payroll on a team that knew it was cutting payroll when they signed him.

They didn't sign him. He was part of a salary reduction trade. 

[BsuNemo]

Twins late September signing of Trevor Bauer for league minimum along with stellar performances from Lopez and Ober led them to their 2024 world series championsh....beep beep beep beep... damn alarm, time to get up and go to work....... 🤣😂🤣

[NYCTK]

2 minutes ago, BsuNemo said:

Twins late September signing of Trevor Bauer for league minimum along with stellar performances from Lopez and Ober led them to their 2024 world series championsh....beep beep beep beep... damn alarm, time to get up and go to work....... 🤣😂🤣

Ew. Why would anyone want to associate with that POS? That'd be a good way to make sure I drop the Twins for good. 

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, Matt Braun said:

His previous career high, set last year, was 118 ⅓ innings; he’s at 138 ⅓ so far in 2024. That’ll take a toll on any 23-year-old. 

 

 

Two things:

1. SWR has been in professional baseball since 2018. First full season in 2019. Seems to me a career high IP of 118.1 isn't a good plan for preparing someone to pitch in MLB.

2. That said, the current 20 IP increase doesn't seem like it should have someone "on fumes."

 

[Brandon]

We could bring up Morris for a few starts or do. Couple bullpen game and let Woods-Richardson and Festa piggy back each other for 3-4 innings each on a start to help limit innings.  Both seem to be good for that long each game.  It’s only for a few starts and the playoffs.  Could be a game changer as we try to hold on for the Wild Card spot.

Buxton where are you.  If it’s not debilitating get on the field 

[bean5302]

Woods Richardson's first 5 starts. 93.1mph.
Woods Richardson's last 5 starts. 93.1mph.

Baldelli has thrown that real quick hook out there on Sim lately. It inflates the bad numbers. Especially Sim's last outing where he gets charged with an earned run allowed by Sands. SWR was basically cruising until running into trouble in the 5th, and considering he'd allowed 0 runs in the first 4 innings, you'd think he'd get a little leash.
1. 8 pitch at bat, missed strike call on pitch 2 and SWR jusssst missed what may have been called strike 3 by a centimeter.
2. Fermin 96mph line drive single.
3. Grounder 90mph single.
4. Sac Fly
5. 6 pitch walk.
Yank, Sands comes in, lets an inherited base runner scores

Score? 1-0.
Pitches? 70
Last Fastball? 95.1mph

[Dantes929]

 

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Woods Richardson's first 5 starts. 93.1mph.
Woods Richardson's last 5 starts. 93.1mph.

Baldelli has thrown that real quick hook out there on Sim lately. It inflates the bad numbers. Especially Sim's last outing where he gets charged with an earned run allowed by Sands. SWR was basically cruising until running into trouble in the 5th, and considering he'd allowed 0 runs in the first 4 innings, you'd think he'd get a little leash.
1. 8 pitch at bat, missed strike call on pitch 2 and SWR jusssst missed what may have been called strike 3 by a centimeter.
2. Fermin 96mph line drive single.
3. Grounder 90mph single.
4. Sac Fly
5. 6 pitch walk.
Yank, Sands comes in, lets an inherited base runner scores

Score? 1-0.
Pitches? 70
Last Fastball? 95.1mph

  I've never been a big believer in that building up innings thing.    Hey, he threw 110 innings last year so now he can throw 120 innings the following year and 130 innings the year after that and ends up with the same amount of surgeries as the guy they just let throw 160 innings in the first place.   By the age of 23 Blyleven had already had 4 seasons throwing over 270 innings.      This is a different thing than having Guerrier throw in 79 games in a season.   Ask Sim how he feels.   Maybe have him skip a start.   He is as likely to hurt his arm in the first 20 innings next year as he is in his last 20 innings this year.

[LambchoP]

16 hours ago, Dantes929 said:

 

  I've never been a big believer in that building up innings thing.    Hey, he threw 110 innings last year so now he can throw 120 innings the following year and 130 innings the year after that and ends up with the same amount of surgeries as the guy they just let throw 160 innings in the first place.   By the age of 23 Blyleven had already had 4 seasons throwing over 270 innings.      This is a different thing than having Guerrier throw in 79 games in a season.   Ask Sim how he feels.   Maybe have him skip a start.   He is as likely to hurt his arm in the first 20 innings next year as he is in his last 20 innings this year.

Remember good ole Matt Guerrero?!