Playing Through Injury is Hurting Max Kepler and the Twins

[Doctor Gast]

If one's production is down & is hurting, you shut him down & fix it. IMO Keirsey should have been brought up after Kiriloff went down & give him some time to prove himself.

Thank you Kepler for your contribution to this team & wish you well.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Commenters on this site have every right to be skeptical of anything injury related that comes out. Honest communication about injuries in this organization is non-existent. 

Or, hear me out, medicine isn't math, and doesn't always go as expected? Why would we think they are lying?

[cmoss84]

Professional athletes, in any sport, generally do not last long. A lot of factors play into this...including competition and injuries. According to this article, a MLB player's average career is 2.7 years. Professional athletes who make it longer than that are beasts. 

https://www.princetonreview.com/careers/22/baseball-player

[chpettit19]

Max has been a solid enough player for the Twins for a long time now. Should've been a 6-9 hole hitter, but has played on so many bad teams he was forced to hit higher than he should've in lineups.

That being said, I'm not sure I'm willing to attribute his season long struggles to that foul ball. He went on the IL because of his left knee. That foul ball went off his right knee. He's on the IL from left patellar tendinitis, not right knee bone chip. Even if his struggles were because of that right knee, it isn't why they put him on the IL. The team didn't just realize Thursday that that knee was such a big problem he needed to go on the IL. The other knee became a problem and that's why he was ILed. 

Kepler is a little lower than his normal offensive performance, but not drastically so. Before his 2nd half outlier last year he was on a pretty steady downward trend. 109 OPS+ in 2020 (I'm find if you ignore that season), 98 OPS+ in 2021, 92 OPS+ in 2022, and he's at a 90 OPS+ this year. His sprint speeds have also been steadily declining. 28 in 2020. 27.4, 27.8, 27.4, 26.8. 79th percentile in 2020 to 61st, 64th, 51st and 36th. 90 ft times have gone 3.91 seconds in 2022, 3.92 in 2023, and 3.95 in 2024. 

If I'm a team looking at signing Max Kepler this offseason I'm not seeing a guy who had an injury ruin his season, I'm seeing a guy in decline. Who wasn't great offensively to start with. Expecting better than a 90 OPS+ from here on out for Max Kepler would be a pretty big bet. He's likely not fast enough to play CF anymore (not that he's done that lately anyways). It's not hard to see why the Twins, reportedly, had trouble finding teams who valued Max the way they did. Glove first corner out fielders who can't OPS+ above 90 are not exactly high on team's needs lists. The end appears to be speeding rapidly towards Max.

[big dog]

22 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

Professional athletes, in any sport, generally do not last long. A lot of factors play into this...including competition and injuries. According to this article, a MLB player's average career is 2.7 years. Professional athletes who make it longer than that are beasts. 

https://www.princetonreview.com/careers/22/baseball-player

And to some degree they are also lucky beasts. Mike Trout's certainly a beast, and he's lasted a lot longer than average...not very lucky, though.

Or is he just "soft"?

[Aggies7]

14 minutes ago, big dog said:

And to some degree they are also lucky beasts. Mike Trout's certainly a beast, and he's lasted a lot longer than average...not very lucky, though.

Or is he just "soft"?

Lol trout, who everyone chides for being often injured, played 159 games in a season twice and 157 games twice. He played at least 114 games in his first 8 full time seasons in the league. The last 5 years have been duds as he’d gotten older but he still managed 119 games in 2019. He’s cal Ripken jr compared to Byron 

 

[KirbyDome89]

39 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Or, hear me out, medicine isn't math, and doesn't always go as expected? Why would we think they are lying?

Lying and obscuring/withholding aren't the same thing, and I haven't seen anybody claim the former. People with real access to the Twins complain about the lack of info regarding injuries. The refusal of this franchise to provide clarity is pretty well documented. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Lying and obscuring/withholding aren't the same thing, and I haven't seen anybody claim the former. People with real access to the Twins complain about the lack of info regarding injuries. The refusal of this franchise to provide clarity is pretty well documented. 

"Honest communication about injuries in this organization is non-existent. "

that seems like "lying" to me?

[KirbyDome89]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

"Honest communication about injuries in this organization is non-existent. "

that seems like "lying" to me?

"Financial constraints didn't play a role in our decisions at the deadline....." - Falvey

Is he "lying," or are we not getting the whole truth? 

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Something else I've noticed is how slowly Royce Lewis coasts down the first base line after hitting a groundball.  It's REALLY noticeable when you see how hard other guys motor down the line.  I believe the team is telling him to take it easy, not a lack of hustle on the part of Lewis.  It has not been addressed by Cory Provus while calling the games but if you haven't noticed it, check it out the next time Lewis hits a groundball.   

It was painfully noticeable the other day. Lewis turned what should've been an easy error and subsequent runner on base into an easy out. The Rays SS bobbled the grounder, dropped it, picked it up, and threw to 1B and Lewis wasn't even in the picture. I get that the dude might not be 100% but there has to be a point where "protecting," somebody becomes self-defeating. If you can't sprint 90 feet I'd argue we might be there. 

[chpettit19]

24 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Lying and obscuring/withholding aren't the same thing, and I haven't seen anybody claim the former. People with real access to the Twins complain about the lack of info regarding injuries. The refusal of this franchise to provide clarity is pretty well documented. 

Honest question, what pro sports teams provide significantly better injury information than the Twins? Different leagues require different information be provided (NFL injury reports for example), but even those reports are as misleading as the teams can make them. Doubtful, questionable, etc. I can't think of any teams that are out there providing exact injury news, and are never, or rarely, wrong about timelines. Do people have examples of this ideal injury information access? Are the Twins really some outlier that are communicating differently than other teams?

[David Maro]

He has no contract for next year,so DFA him.If the team had interest in him after this season they would be talking to his agent.It is known by everyone that they cutting payroll.All the younger players under team control will be in the outfield.

It is time to cut bait with the medical and training staffs.This team has far too many injuries and lost time on the field.The training staff needs to be less focused on body building and more on flexibility.And the medical staff seems to let injuries go to long before putting the player on IL.

The Buxton situation is a problem all its own.The FO signed him to a so called club friendly deal.It is now become a huge issue because center field is a musical chairs problem.The teams that will be making noise in the playoffs don't use 6 or 7 different players in the outfield.

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, David Maro said:

He has no contract for next year,so DFA him.If the team had interest in him after this season they would be talking to his agent.It is known by everyone that they cutting payroll.All the younger players under team control will be in the outfield.

It is time to cut bait with the medical and training staffs.This team has far too many injuries and lost time on the field.The training staff needs to be less focused on body building and more on flexibility.And the medical staff seems to let injuries go to long before putting the player on IL.

The Buxton situation is a problem all its own.The FO signed him to a so called club friendly deal.It is now become a huge issue because center field is a musical chairs problem.The teams that will be making noise in the playoffs don't use 6 or 7 different players in the outfield.

They just did cut bait with medical and training personnel. They hired Nick Paparesta after the 2022 nightmare. He lead a training staff that was named "Major League Athletic Training Staff of the Year." I never understand this idea that medical and training staffs of professional sports teams don't know what to focus on. I'd also suggest you go look up other teams situations before claiming they "don't use 6 or 7 different players in the outfield."

Dodgers: 12
Phillies: 11
Brewers: 9
Orioles: 11
Guardians: 12
Yankees: 10
Padres: 7
Diamondbacks: 7
Braves: 12
Twins: 9

That's how many guys have stepped to the plate as an outfielder for the top 10 teams in baseball. You'll notice the Twins are tied for 3rd fewest outfielders used this season.

[KirbyDome89]

27 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Honest question, what pro sports teams provide significantly better injury information than the Twins? Different leagues require different information be provided (NFL injury reports for example), but even those reports are as misleading as the teams can make them. Doubtful, questionable, etc. I can't think of any teams that are out there providing exact injury news, and are never, or rarely, wrong about timelines. Do people have examples of this ideal injury information access? Are the Twins really some outlier that are communicating differently than other teams?

No clue, and I don't know where the Twins stand in the hierarchy. I don't really care and tbh it's irrelevant. The point of the originally quoted post was that fans have every right to be skeptical of the breadcrumbs they're given regarding injuries. That doesn't seem like an unreasonable opinion to hold. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Anybody complaining about the Twins lack of "public" information regarding injuries really needs to stop. (By public, I mean I could know about it).

Every team in every sport is not completely honest about injuries.  All exaggerate, most obfuscate, many probably flat out lie.  Any information that might give an opposing team an edge will be hidden.

Imagine the vitriol of Rocco came out and said "Royce has a slight quad pull, but we don't feel it warrants a stop on the IL, nor do we have anyone else we trust to fill his spot in the minors.  We are telling him to only give it about 80% on the basepaths while we try to let him heal."

Why do you think NHL doesn't specify injuries?  They call them lower body, upper body... They know specifics will be targeted by opposing teams.  It is the way of the world.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

33 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

They just did cut bait with medical and training personnel. They hired Nick Paparesta after the 2022 nightmare. He lead a training staff that was named "Major League Athletic Training Staff of the Year." I never understand this idea that medical and training staffs of professional sports teams don't know what to focus on. I'd also suggest you go look up other teams situations before claiming they "don't use 6 or 7 different players in the outfield."

Dodgers: 12
Phillies: 11
Brewers: 9
Orioles: 11
Guardians: 12
Yankees: 10
Padres: 7
Diamondbacks: 7
Braves: 12
Twins: 9

That's how many guys have stepped to the plate as an outfielder for the top 10 teams in baseball. You'll notice the Twins are tied for 3rd fewest outfielders used this season.

I believe a better indicator of this would be IL lost days for each team.  Believe it or not, the Twins are only 9th this year...
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/injured/_/year/2024/view/team

Probably not a coincidence that Cleveland and KC are among the healthy teams

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

No clue, and I don't know where the Twins stand in the hierarchy. I don't really care and tbh it's irrelevant. The point of the originally quoted post was that fans have every right to be skeptical of the breadcrumbs they're given regarding injuries. That doesn't seem like an unreasonable opinion to hold. 

Fair. I don't disagree that they should be skeptical. Not just because the team should be actively giving out as little detail as possible (there's a reason leagues have to force teams and players to talk), but also because injuries are hard to predict sometimes. "We think this should be a 2 to 4 week injury" could be 100% honest the day they put the guy on the IL, and 6 weeks later it could be 100% honest that it's now looking at a 4 month thing.

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I believe a better indicator of this would be IL lost days for each team.  Believe it or not, the Twins are only 9th this year...
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/injured/_/year/2024/view/team

Probably not a coincidence that Cleveland and KC are among the healthy teams

Yep, lots of ways to look at injuries. Not all days on the IL are created equal, either. But Atlanta has had it worse than the Twins without question. Every team has injuries. The Royals just lose Vinnie for the year (most likely). Many fans don't follow the league as a whole closely enough (it being so regional is part of MLB's problem, but that's a talk for another time) to know that the Twins aren't some outlier. As it turns out playing professional sports can be bad for your body.

[Riverbrian]

36 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Not all days on the IL are created equal

So True... Sometimes injuries actually make your team better. 

 

[S Bart]

Realistically, Kepler will not be playing for the Twins next season. Sporting News has put out an article about the Twins moving on from Santana next year also. I know there are Buxton fans out there, but the Twins need to think about a good replacement next season due to his repetitive injury prone modus operandi. I understand that they cannot dump him due to the salary, but a PLAN B must be developed. One only needs to examine his past history.  It would be foolish to think that they could depend on him to be healthy next year. Several players have had to fill in for him this year due to there not being a Michael Taylor in place.

[S Bart]

3 hours ago, S Bart said:

Realistically, Kepler will not be playing for the Twins next season. Sporting News has put out an article about the Twins moving on from Santana next year also. I know there are Buxton fans out there, but the Twins need to think about a good replacement next season due to his repetitive injury prone modus operandi. I understand that they cannot dump him due to the salary, but a PLAN B must be developed. One only needs to examine his past history.  It would be foolish to think that they could depend on him to be healthy next year. Several players have had to fill in for him this year due to there not being a Michael Taylor in place.

 

[TopGunn#22]

My wife's favorite player is Max Kepler.  I like him a lot too.  I'm sure we will be pulling for him no matter if it's for a team NOT called the Twins...(unless he's playing for Cleveland)  :)

Big Dog is exactly right regarding Tony-O.  It was painful watching him try to run in his 3 seasons of DH'ing in 1973, 1974 and 1975.  But he could still swing the bat.  On one leg, he hit .291  Imagine that, in a pitching dominated era like the 1970's.  

I agree that this is a chance to get a peek at 2025.  This is an extended audition for Wallner, Larnach, Martin, Kiersey and Helman.  It's just too bad that Kirilloff can't be a part of this either. 

In regards to next season and a continued lowering of our payroll:  I'd like to think we have enough offense with young bats like Lewis,  Wallner, Larnach, Miranda, Lee and Julien.  Especially with Emmanuel Rodriguez a possible addition after the All Star break.  But I'd like to see them try to get one established veteran SP rather than head into next season relying on 3 2nd year SP's (Festa, Matthews and SWR).  They all have potential, but expecting all three of them to succeed in 2025 is unrealistic.