August 27 2024 Matt Wallner

[Riverbrian]

100 AB's to qualify has been chosen by me not to cherry pick but in order to include Matt Wallner with 129 AB's.  

With players over 100 AB's Matt Wallner currently ranks third in OPS. 

Here is the company that he keeps: 

Aaron Judge - 1.167

Juan Soto - 1.027

Matt Wallner - 1.015

Bobby Witt - - 1.014

Shohei Ohtani - .993

That's pretty good company. 

I'm still willing to bet that a guy who produces over 1.000 against right handers would still produce a pretty good OPS against left handers while still probably less than. I don't believe a .700 OPS difference would remain in tact if he were allowed to face them. If it's still .300 points less vs LH... that isn't that bad.  

I understand that facing left handers would probably drop him out of the top 5. Maybe even the top 10.

The only problem is that I will have no opportunity to confirm my suspicion unless he is allowed to confirm or not. I just don't believe that a player can be .700 points different facing one hand compared to the other.    

 

[Mike Sixel]

Yelling into the storm, I see. Good luck!

[Road trip]

I'll add here, Ohtani's OPS is nearly 300 points lower vs left handers this year.  The Dodgers have him in the lineup every day anyway....seems like its working out for them.

[USAFChief]

After last night, Wallner in 20 PAs vs LH Pitching:

.235/.350/.529

 

 

[Riverbrian]

With Matt Wallner going 0-2 vs. the left handed Sale last night (Including a rocket to the 1B).

His OPS vs LHP has fallen to .792

Using 100 AB's as a qualifier - His current OPS overall (vs. both arms) is 1.011 which is tied for third in Baseball with Juan Soto. 

He is top 3 in baseball despite starting the season 2 for 25 before being sent down back in April.

He has been 36 for 113 (.318) since his return. 23 of those 36 hits for extra bases. 9 of the 23 extra base hits were home runs. 

I remain of the opinion that Matt Wallner should play every single day.

I'm starting to think that Wallner and Lewis belong in the same conversation. 

[Linus]

His at bats against Sale last night were very good. He didn’t really chase and he competed hard - the 97 under the hands didn’t seem to bother him. Give him a shot at playing every day. This lineup needs a jolt and this is one of the few moves they have to achieve said jolt. 

[USAFChief]

This is such a no brainer. 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 8/27/2024 at 12:43 PM, USAFChief said:

After last night, Wallner in 20 PAs vs LH Pitching:

.235/.350/.529

 

 

Which is better than Farmer’s 96 pas against righties this season

.157/.250/.277 

[ashbury]

Wallner leads all major leaguers who have at least 100 PA in this illuminating statistic: Batting Average on Balls in Play, at .418.  This is masking his 36% strikeout rate.  When the unsustainable level of balls missing gloves ends, the crash isn't going to be pretty.

[Riverbrian]

33 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Wallner leads all major leaguers who have at least 100 PA in this illuminating statistic: Batting Average on Balls in Play, at .418.  This is masking his 36% strikeout rate.  When the unsustainable level of balls missing gloves ends, the crash isn't going to be pretty.

I agree his BABIP is not sustainable so it is bound to come down. However... If his hard hit rate continues it just may not come down far enough to cause a crash. Sometimes high BABIP is simply hitting the ball hard. He's not blooping the ball and finding green...  He's lining rockets into the gap and off the wall. Not to mention the ones that clear the wall at a pace of every 14 AB's.

He's at the 488 PA Mark of his young career. Career BABIP is still high at .361 so he's holding his ground pretty good. Line Drive rate is trending up. 

I would like to see that K rate improved. If that goes up... he just might flash like Joey Gallo did as a youngster. .

For now... I'm enjoying the tattoos that he is putting on the baseball. 

At the very least... For Pete's sake ... play him while he is getting lucky if that is what BABIP signifies. 😉

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

8 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree his BABIP is not sustainable so it is bound to come down. However... If his hard hit rate continues it just may not come down far enough to cause a crash. Sometimes high BABIP is simply hitting the ball hard. He's not blooping the ball and finding green...  He's lining rockets into the gap and off the wall. Not to mention the ones that clear the wall at a pace of every 14 AB's.

He's at the 488 PA Mark of his young career. Career BABIP is still high at .361 so he's holding his ground pretty good. Line Drive rate is trending up. 

I would like to see that K rate improved. If that goes up... he just might flash like Joey Gallo did as a youngster. .

For now... I'm enjoying the tattoos that he is putting on the baseball. 

At the very least... For Pete's sake ... play him while he is getting lucky if that is what BABIP signifies. 😉

 

Agreed, and while regression to the mean will catch up to him, likely not all at once. There’s 5 weeks left of the season. He may not end the season at .418 BABIP, but he likely won’t end it at .300 BABIP either.

[Riverbrian]

59 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Agreed, and while regression to the mean will catch up to him, likely not all at once. There’s 5 weeks left of the season. He may not end the season at .418 BABIP, but he likely won’t end it at .300 BABIP either.

PA's 169

HR 10

BB 18

K 62

Adds up to 90

Dinosaur Bones has been hit by a pitch an astounding 12 times to take 102 of his 169 PA's away from BABIP consideration. 

13 Singles 

14 Doubles

1 Triple

67 PA's that can only be used for this stat is small enough to fluctuate significantly. 

[tony&rodney]

Last season I defended Wallner's game, which displayed physical talent and inexperience. He needs a full season of 500 PA before we know how Matt adapts to pitching. Right now, until something major interrupts, Wallner needs to be in the middle of the lineup every game. The Twins need offense.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

5 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

PA's 169

HR 10

BB 18

K 62

Adds up to 90

Dinosaur Bones has been hit by a pitch an astounding 12 times to take 102 of his 169 PA's away from BABIP consideration. 

13 Singles 

14 Doubles

1 Triple

67 PA's that can only be used for this stat is small enough to fluctuate significantly. 

There’s 29 games rest of season, if he starts 25 of them and his K, BB and HPB numbers stay the same (getting HBP 6 more times would be insane) that would be 100 plate appearances 37 Ks, 11bbs, 5 hpb, 2 hr and go 8 hits for 19 (36 for opportunities to maintain .418 BABIP. If he goes. 0 for 19, he ends the season with .326 BABIP. Likely he’ll be somewhere in the middle ending .360 to .372 BABIP.

36	86	0.418605
35	86	0.406977
34	86	0.395349
33	86	0.383721
32	86	0.372093
31	86	0.360465
30	86	0.348837
29	86	0.337209
28	86	0.325581

 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

There’s 29 games rest of season, if he starts 25 of them and his K, BB and HPB numbers stay the same (getting HBP 6 more times would be insane) that would be 100 plate appearances 37 Ks, 11bbs, 5 hpb, 2 hr and go 8 hits for 19 (36 for opportunities to maintain .418 BABIP. If he goes. 0 for 19, he ends the season with .326 BABIP. Likely he’ll be somewhere in the middle ending .360 to .372 BABIP.

36	86	0.418605
35	86	0.406977
34	86	0.395349
33	86	0.383721
32	86	0.372093
31	86	0.360465
30	86	0.348837
29	86	0.337209
28	86	0.325581

 

Which would be around his career total. So... Good Gravy... Let's hope he doesn't go 0 for 19!!! 😄

[Road trip]

On 8/29/2024 at 8:07 AM, USAFChief said:

This is such a no brainer. 

 

Y'now, you would think an analytically minded team like the Twins would figure this out.  Wallner is 5th on the team in WAR, and hit that mark in fewer than 150 at bats.  #1 and #2 are injured (Correa and Buxton).  #3 is Jax.  That leaves a single available position player doing better... and they can't find room in the lineup for Wallner every day?  And regularly pinch hit for him?  Madness...

I really don't care if BABIP rates say he's been lucky.  The Twins need ride some luck.  It's about time to sacrifice a chicken or something to Jobu so they can wake up everyone else's bats.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

Y'now, you would think an analytically minded team like the Twins would figure this out.  Wallner is 5th on the team in WAR, and hit that mark in fewer than 150 at bats. 

They might respond by saying he's done this through the usage they devised.

[big dog]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

They might respond by saying he's done this through the usage they devised.

So if we used him more maybe he would only be seventh. I’ll settle for that. 
Especially if it means I don’t have to see Margot pinch hit ever again. 

[ashbury]

1 minute ago, big dog said:

So if we used him more maybe he would only be seventh. I’ll settle for that. 
Especially if it means I don’t have to see Margot pinch hit ever again. 

It could be that everything they ask of him beyond what he's giving them now would be sub-Margot.

I'm not especially advocating one way or the other, actually.  It's just that one big difference between 10-year old Ashbury and the one you're talking to now doesn't believe that the stats on the back of a player's bubble gum card define him.

[cmoss84]

My comp for him has always been Carlos Pena. Which isn't bad. And...YES! Have him in the lineup every day! 

[big dog]

6 hours ago, ashbury said:

It could be that everything they ask of him beyond what he's giving them now would be sub-Margot.

I'm not especially advocating one way or the other, actually.  It's just that one big difference between 10-year old Ashbury and the one you're talking to now doesn't believe that the stats on the back of a player's bubble gum card define him.

Anything is possible. But I'd bet the over vs. the Margot Line.