A Quick Update on Twins' Historic, Unique Usage of Christian Vázquez and Ryan Jeffers

[Matthew Trueblood]

One of the simplest innovations in player usage in decades has led the Twins to the precipice of making a very specific type of history with their catching tandem.

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel and Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

As I've assiduously documented over the last year or so, the Twins alternate Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vázquez in composing their daily starting lineups. They don't kind-of, sort-of alternate them, or play matchups or pair each with a subset of the starting rotation. The Twins believe so strongly in keeping their catchers on a one-on, one-off schedule that they've only deviated from a perfect alternating pattern between them six times all season--and all of those were because injuries forced the issue.

In half those instances, though, the injuries compelling a change to the pattern weren't even to the catchers. Hurt players elsewhere on the roster forced the team to start Vázquez at third base once and to slot Jeffers in as the DH a bit more often than they actually wanted to, earlier this year. With 41 games to play, Vázquez needs 16 games at catcher and 62 plate appearances to reach 80 and 300, respectively. Jeffers needs 18 turns behind the dish, and has already exceeded 300 trips to the plate.

If each player gets to each of those figures, it will be the second straight season in which they've done so. Should that happen, they'll become just the third pair of teammates ever to catch 80 or more games and come to bat 300 or more times in consecutive years. The first was Joe Azcue and Duke Sims, of the 1967-68 Cleveland club. The second was Buster Posey and Nick Hundley, of the 2017-18 Giants. All of the other 32 instances of two catchers sharing work that evenly in baseball history have been one-year things, either because one of the backstops got hurt in the surrounding seasons; because one of the two seized a more regular job and consigned the other to backup duty; or because the team lucky enough to be in possession of two solid backstops cashed one in via trade.

If Vázquez slides up in the order a bit the rest of the way (which wouldn't be out of line, given that he's hitting .288/.325/.523 since Jun. 1), he could even get to 325 plate appearances for the season. If he does so, he and Jeffers will become the first pair of teammates ever to have that many PAs and 80-plus games behind the dish in two straight years. There are only 12 such seasons in history as things stand, and last year's version of Jeffers and Vázquez is already the only one since 1996, when Ed Taubensee and Joe Oliver did it for the Reds.

The organization's fierce belief in the value of resting catchers between appearances has paid off to an extent even they probably couldn't have predicted. This arrangement won't last another year. The team needs to clear some money this winter to accommodate other needed moves, so they'll trade one of Vázquez and Jeffers. For two seasons, though, these two have been a great yin and yang, kept constantly in balance, bringing different but equally valuable things to the team on a daily basis. Keeping catchers healthy and fresh is almost as hard as doing the same with pitchers, but the Twins are doing it, just by making sure neither of their receivers ever takes his position in a state of greater fatigue than necessary.

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[DocBauer]

First of all, I don't believe Vazquez is going anywhere. In the grand scheme of things, his $10M isn't back breaking even for a team pinching pennies. There's also not an obvious replacement for him as a CATCHER, and what that implies, and they'd probably have to eat part of his deal in order to move him. They'd end up, probably, with negative value overall.

Vazquez is an excellent catcher, Jeffers a solid one. Jeffers is the better bat, Vazquez is what he is, an OK enough bat...generally...to balance his defensive value. 

Let's look at what this duo has done to date, with about 40 games left.

Jeffers has a .761 OPS despite highs and lows. That's not only above league average, it's WAY above average for the catcher position. Despite horrible lows and some recent highs, Vazquez has a .620 OPS. COMBINED, they have accounted for 22HR and 78 RBI.

Yes, some of Jeffers production comes from some DH appearances. But not enough to completely mess with the overall numbers.

If both simply keep producing at their current pace, with 40 games to go, they would project to 29HR and 103 RBI. That's AMAZING, even when you swipe away a couple HR and RBI from Jeffers spending some time at DH earlier in the first half.

What the Twins are getting, even with some hot and cold streaks from both catchers, is solid defense and game calling overall, and production from the catcher spot that few teams can probably come close to.

This works!

[Joe Schmitt]

I think it is possible that the Twins could trade Vazquez at the end of the year.  He is due to make $10M, and given his production, he's probably worth that - in other words, I expect that there are teams who would want to trade for him, a la Polanco last year.

But I hope they don't trade him - I don't see a replacement right now, and he's crucially important for multiple reasons (keeping Jeffers fresh and healthy, managing the pitching staff, and providing decent offense).

[yeahyabetcha]

If the Twins have to trade one of the two this offseason, I would lean towards Jeffers.  

[pierre75275]

I don't necessarily believe that one of these guys will be traded for sure. Will the team do it's due diligence? Sure. But I think both guys ultimately end up being here.

Interesting thought. The Twins could sign the Rockies catcher, Diaz, to a minor league deal and then stash him at AAA and put Vazquez on waivers and see if anyone claims him 

But I think Vazquez means more to this team than we realize.

[LambchoP]

I like the idea of grabbing Diaz off waivers. Put him in AAA and see how he does. Probably more of a viable starter right now than Camargo, and he'd be a solid backup catcher if we trade Vasquez for salary relief.

[bean5302]

Vazquez isn't hitting particularly well, he's regressing to expected values.
Before 6/1 = .165/.184/.202. 1.7% BB, 25.0% K. BABIP .210. Exit Velo 90.1mph. 3.6% Brl, 35.7% Hard
From 6/1 = .288/.325/.523. 5.7% BB, 14.8% K. BABIP .292. Exit Velo 86.8mph. 6.2% Brl, 34.0% Hard

His average exit velocity has dropped down to the basement of MLB hitters since 6/1 and his hard hit rate has even declined. On the plus side, he's barreled a few more balls up despite still being a pretty poor value, and he's converted some K's to BBs and contact. His rolling xwOBA has remained under MLB average the entire season, including even now so there shouldn't be any expectation Vazquez has become a good hitter, just that he's getting some good luck to offset his bad luck to start the year.

[Fatbat]

Barring injury, this will be 3 years straight.  Consistency at C is having a great impact on our young pitching staff and both of these guys (Combined) is legendary.  When it becomes a reality just over 12 months from now,  we will celebrate.  History will not repeat this tandem for a long time. Get used to it. We are only 60% there. 

[nova_twins]

Camargo has a 66 RC+ in AAA so it's hard for me to see what the Twins can do to replace either one. 

If they could move all of Vazquez' salary, they may well do it, but even with this hot streak I'm not sure how likely that is. 

They could trade for a catcher but I'm skeptical that's the position they would use surplus to target. Maybe.

[IndianaTwin]

Add me to those thinking they won't trade either. As others have noted, there's nothing in the mix in terms of backups and anything they trade for/sign is going to be a wash financially with trading one of these. 

Though it would be unpopular, I think it's much more likely they trade Castro than either catcher.  

[USAFChief]

4 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Add me to those thinking they won't trade either. As others have noted, there's nothing in the mix in terms of backups and anything they trade for/sign is going to be a wash financially with trading one of these. 

Though it would be unpopular, I think it's much more likely they trade Castro than either catcher.  

Concur on all counts.

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I want so badly to believe they won't move Vazquez this offseason.  However, if current trends continue, saving money will be more important than on-field success.

[Matthew Trueblood]

On 8/17/2024 at 7:35 AM, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Earlier this year I would have been all for trading Vazquez as he was pretty much an automatic out.  For whatever reason he has come on and now I think we may want to keep this tandem together for one more year.  If it ain't broke, don't fix it.  Maybe they both stay healthy next year and break that record for consecutive years at 80/300.

Saw several comments saying a version of this, and I get it! But:

1. In baseball, especially when it comes to a catcher on the long-toothed side of 30, you can't just assume that what happened last is what will happen next. This tandem has worked quite well for two years, but I wouldn't bet very big on it working for a third straight time. And

2. To whatever extent you DO project it to work, this arrangement is a luxury. When you're tightening your belt and trimming your budget, you cut back on luxuries. I hope I'm firmly on record saying the Twins doing that tightening and trimming is stupid! But if it's happening, paying more than $15 million for the catcher spot is a luxury they will not be able to indulge. Either Jeffers will be dealt for a quality prospect, Vázquez will be dealt for a minimal return (though I strongly disagree with those who think they would have to attach a prospect TO him), or they will unexpectedly increase their payroll by a significant amount next season. One of those three things HAS to happen.