The Twins Should Swing Big

[Rod Carews Birthday]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Pretty sure they meant save the money on Farmer and Vazquez..... And spend it otherwise.

Point taken, but it also means that they have to sign the “right” guys to make a difference.  That’s a long ways from a sure thing, plus you do have to sign another catcher.  I’m not defending the (lack of) moves at all, but it’s not an easy fix.

[Linus]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Emma + Festa + lower prospect or 2 for Skubal. Sign me up all day.

Me too in a heartbeat. Which probably means it’s not enough. 

[thelanges5]

Maybe the Dobber is coming up so that some other trade can take place? 
 

 

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Sorry dude but as soon as you wrote that Jenkins, Rodriguez, Lee & Matthews should be in play you lost all credibility.  You don't get better when your best players play for other teams.  Or your best prospects.  Some lines can't be crossed. End of story.

 

Brooks Lee's bat has been on par with Kyle Farmer's, and he's the only guy who is or is likely to be on the 26 man from your list. If you're aiming for .500 baseball for the next 5 years, keep all your prospects. If you're aiming for playoff relevance for the next year or two, you move them in the right scenario.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Maybe the Dobber is coming up so that some other trade can take place? 
 

 

If so, that means the Twins are trading a SP......either Festa or someone else....

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

That's 2 top-100 prospects plus others. I don't think that's a riot worthy proposal. 

Soto and Bell brought back 3 top-100 prospects plus others. 2 top-100 guys is a pretty reasonable starting point I think.

Skubal looks like a top 5 pitcher in MLB. I don't see how you can get away without offering Jenkins. 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I would be very reluctant to trade Jenkins, but for Skubal?

Yes. All day. 

 

 

Even Jenkins would barely get the ball rolling for Skubal. Baseballtradevalues. Jenkins is about 60. Skubal is 104. Skubal is one of the most valuable players in all MLB. He's basically what Chris Sale was when he was traded to Boston.

Ober + Jenkins + Festa + Keaschall would likely get it done.

[Cap'n Piranha]

36 minutes ago, Heiny said:

Whether it's the FO or ownership doesn't matter at all to me.  But there were many possible sighnings the Twins could have made during the off season and did nothing, and there were many possible trades they could have made prior to the deadline and didn't (the best possibilities are gone).  This is a real thing, well I think it's real, ok, maybe not real, but it is a thing.  Everything is a thing, well maybe not everything.  Where was I going with this?  I get lost when I have to think a little.  Kinda like the Twins when they have to think about maybe trying to get a WS.

What are the possible signings the Twins could have made this offseason?  To match last year's payroll, they would have had $28M available, but keep in mind their revenue is absolutely down.  Also keep in mind that the team is already at $90M for 2025, across only 5 players, and will have to give significant raises through arbitration to Jeffers, Lewis, Castro, Larnach, Ober, Ryan, Stewart, Jax, and Duran.  If those players average $3M each, now the payroll is at $117M, leaving the Twins only $33M to pay 12 players, an impossibility if they committed $25M beyond 2024.

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

If so, that means the Twins are trading a SP......either Festa or someone else....

Or SWR is going to spend a couple weeks on the IL with "arm fatigue".

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

Even Jenkins would barely get the ball rolling for Skubal. Baseballtradevalues. Jenkins is about 60. Skubal is 104. Skubal is one of the most valuable players in all MLB. He's basically what Chris Sale was when he was traded to Boston.

Ober + Jenkins + Festa + Keaschall would likely get it done.

If the Tigers are trading Skubal (indicating they don't intend to compete next year, and potentially not in 2026 either), why would they want Ober, who has only one more year of team control than Skubal?  You're much more likely to have to give them Matthews or Rodriguez.

[bean5302]

Just now, Cap'n Piranha said:

If the Tigers are trading Skubal (indicating they don't intend to compete next year, and potentially not in 2026 either), why would they want Ober, who has only one more year of team control than Skubal?  You're much more likely to have to give them Matthews or Rodriguez.

Because the Tigers want to remain relevant immediately. They're not in rebuild mode. They'd trade Skubal if blown away, not because they want to. They're building and aiming for the playoffs, even potentially this year. They want guys they can use now or next year. Jenkins probably isn't that desirable as a headliner because he's so far away.

Ober = 30ish, Jenkins = 60ish, Festa = 12ish, Keaschall = 20ish. = 122 total, and typically, you have to overpay when combining multiple pieces to trade for a single piece.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Just now, bean5302 said:

Because the Tigers want to remain relevant immediately. They're not in rebuild mode. They'd trade Skubal if blown away, not because they want to. They're building and aiming for the playoffs, even potentially this year. They want guys they can use now or next year. Jenkins probably isn't that desirable as a headliner because he's so far away.

Ober = 30ish, Jenkins = 60ish, Festa = 12ish, Keaschall = 20ish. = 122 total, and typically, you have to overpay when combining multiple pieces to trade for a single piece.

The Tigers want to remain relevant, and they're going to do that by trading away a top 5 starter in MLB under team control for 2 more years for one established but nowhere-near-as-good starter, and 3 prospects?  Keep in mind the Tigers only have $52M in payroll commitments next year, and under $30M in 2026 and 2027 (most of which is Baez, which ends after 2027).  If the Tigers actually want to remain relevant as you claim, I imagine they would much prefer to extend the sure(ish) thing in Skubal for say 6/$200M, buying out his last 2 years of arbitration.

[bean5302]

Don't agree Baltimore has rotation issues. They have a pretty solid playoff rotation even as of today.
ERA/FIP
1) Corbin Burnes 2.45/3.48
2) Grayson Rodriguez 3.82/3.63
3) Albert Suarez 3.62/3.69
4) Zach Eflin 4.11/3.63
5) Kremer 4.20/4.88.

Word is they're in on Flaherty hard, too. If they land Flaherty, that rotation is likely going to be a real force to be reckoned with.

[bean5302]

3 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

The Tigers want to remain relevant, and they're going to do that by trading away a top 5 starter in MLB under team control for 2 more years for one established but nowhere-near-as-good starter, and 3 prospects?  Keep in mind the Tigers only have $52M in payroll commitments next year, and under $30M in 2026 and 2027 (most of which is Baez, which ends after 2027).  If the Tigers actually want to remain relevant as you claim, I imagine they would much prefer to extend the sure(ish) thing in Skubal for say 6/$200M, buying out his last 2 years of arbitration.

So you're saying it's not possible for the Tigers to acquire an ace, say like Corbin Burnes or Blake Snell in this offseason free agency? It's not honestly debatable the Tigers are looking to compete immediately, I don't think.

[chpettit19]

42 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Skubal looks like a top 5 pitcher in MLB. I don't see how you can get away without offering Jenkins. 

That's fair. I'm sure that's who they'd ask for. But if they see Emma as a top 30 or 40 global guy who's ready to join their team next year he's an awfully close replacement. Closer to the majors may give a boost. But certainly may take Jenkins.

[Cap'n Piranha]

11 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

So you're saying it's not possible for the Tigers to acquire an ace, say like Corbin Burnes or Blake Snell in this offseason free agency? It's not honestly debatable the Tigers are looking to compete immediately, I don't think.

It's possible they could acquire Burnes or Snell, but it's far from guaranteed, and a much worse option than just keeping Skubal (who is also a superior pitcher to either Burnes or Snell)

Burnes will have the QO on him, meaning the Tigers are giving up draft picks/international bonus money if they sign him, neither of which is the case if they simply keep/extend Skubal.  They also have to negotiate against everyone, including teams with deeper pockets, like the Yankees, Mets, and Dodgers.  They'll also have competition from teams that want to compete that have payroll space like the Orioles, the Nationals, and the Cardinals.

For Snell, there's no guarantee he's even available.  He has an option in excess of $38M for next year, after which he can hit UFA with no QO attached.  Is a guy who spent a good part of the year injured, and currently sporting an ERA north of 5 really going to say no to almost $40M?  Even if he does, he's 4 years older than Skubal, and is so injury-prone he makes Royce Lewis look durable.  Again, if the Tigers want to compete, why would they want to get older, worse, and more injury-prone?

I'm also not debating if the Tigers want to compete immediately.  I'm saying no team that wants to remain competitive is trading Skubal, unless they're getting a package along the lines of Henderson and Rutschman in return.  As such, Skubal's movement is a litmus test for how the Tigers view their future; if they want to compete, he'll stay in the Old English D.  Therefore, if he is traded, the Tigers aren't trying to compete in 2024 or 2025.

[jud6312]

2 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

It's so obviously tongue in cheek. Dobnak is a silly guy, if the handlebar weren't enough of a clue in. You're taking this much more seriously than he is. 

I admitted it was tongue in cheek, but that doesn't matter I think it's stupid and unfunny ... much like his dreadful 'stache. However, I prefer his "sense of humor" and awful facial hair over his pitching. 

[cmoss84]

For those of you who are Gollum-esque on our prospects...I just read that 79% of prospects in trades don't even make the bigs.

Orioles are debating whether to give up Holliday to get Skubal. Jenkins + would get it done for us, but doubt Detroit trades him within division. 

Ownership not going to spend money...just reality. But there are plenty of really good players out there who are cost efficient...if FO is willing to part ways with their precious. 

[jud6312]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Happily.

Jenkins is a high quality prospect. 

Skubal is a high quality MLB starter. 

2.3 years, not 2, by the way, if I can't extend him.

And unless the CBA changes, a draft pick compensation if he departs as a FA in 2027.

 

 

 

Sorry, Captain Math. I guess 2.3 is WAY bigger than 2.

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, jud6312 said:

Sorry, Captain Math. I guess 2.3 is WAY bigger than 2.

Well since the .3 is the current season in which the Twins are 1.5 games from missing the postseason, it seems important. 

[jud6312]

Just now, USAFChief said:

Well since the .3 is the current season in which the Twins are 1.5 games from missing the postseason, it seems important. 

Unless that .3 includes a World Series trophy, it doesn't matter. I don't think there's any way Skubal alone makes them a World Series team. They can coast into their Wild Card spot without giving up the farm for Skubal.

 

And honestly I'm not sure whey we're even discussing him ... unless they find takers for every bad contract on this team, there's no way Pohlad is signing off on paying an actual ace.

[USAFChief]

18 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

 (Snell) has an option in excess of $38M for next year, after which he can hit UFA with no QO attached.  Is a guy who spent a good part of the year injured, and currently sporting an ERA north of 5 really going to say no to almost $40M?  

This part is all false.

As has been explained multiple times, if Snell exercises his option, it's for $15M in 2025, $15M in 2027. Not $38M in 2025.

And why would there be no QO?

I do agree the Tigers have no reason to trade Skubal though.

[USAFChief]

4 minutes ago, jud6312 said:

Unless that .3 includes a World Series trophy, it doesn't matter. I don't think there's any way Skubal alone makes them a World Series team. They can coast into their Wild Card spot without giving up the farm for Skubal.

 

And honestly I'm not sure whey we're even discussing him ... unless they find takers for every bad contract on this team, there's no way Pohlad is signing off on paying an actual ace.

I think you have me confused with someone who thinks the Tigers will trade Skubal.

I don't.

I simply said if they did, I'd happily include Jenkins as the major part of the return.

 

 

 

[bean5302]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

I think you have me confused with someone who thinks the Tigers will trade Skubal.

I don't.

I simply said if they did, I'd happily include Jenkins as the major part of the return.

 

 

 

Exactly. Nobody thinks the Tigers will trade Skubal, but if the Twins did trade for him, Jenkins is the only piece they have which is valuable enough to start the conversation.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Red Sox picked up Lucas Sims from the Reds. Waiting on the return, but doubt it was much. Better than Okert and Thielbar. This is the kind of move that you make. People will shrug and say, who is Lucas Sims? Or, they'll say it doesn't move the needle. Until the Twins are winning 3-2 in the 7th inning and Rocco hands the ball to Okert or Thielbar to get a couple of lefties out.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Added context: Red Sox gave up their 29th best prospect.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Rogers supposedly close to being dealt...Padres?

[jud6312]

1 minute ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Red Sox picked up Lucas Sims from the Reds. Waiting on the return, but doubt it was much. Better than Okert and Thielbar. This is the kind of move that you make. People will shrug and say, who is Lucas Sims? Or, they'll say it doesn't move the needle. Until the Twins are winning 3-2 in the 7th inning and Rocco hands the ball to Okert or Thielbar to get a couple of lefties out.

But Lucas Sims is a righty. Is he especially good against lefties?

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Just now, jud6312 said:

But Lucas Sims is a righty. Is he especially good against lefties?

He is a righty, yes but is good against lefties for his career. Okert and Thielbar are the two most obvious spots to upgrade, IMHO. Doesn't necessarily have to be a lefty.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Rogers to the Orioles.