Let's Revisit the First Round of the 2019 MLB Draft

[bighat]

Last week the Twins released Keoni Cavaco, the #13 pick of the 2019 MLB Draft. At the time, MLB.com said of Cavaco: "He possesses an exciting package of tools, starting with his power-speed combination. He also fits the third-base profile to a T with his pop and strong arm".

Clearly everyone misjudged Cavaco. But just how bad was this pick? Let's take a look at the top 30 picks of the 2019 draft class and see whether or not they made it to "The Show". Anyone with "MLB" next to their name has played in the big leagues. Others are highlighted with their highest level of achievement next to their names: 

Adley Rutschman - MLB 
Bobby Witt Jr. - MLB 
Andrew Vaughn - MLB 
JJ Bleday - MLB 
Riley Greene - MLB
C.J. Abrams - MLB
Nick Lodolo - MLB
Josh Jung - MLB
Shea Langeliers - MLB
Hunter Bishop - AAA
Alek Manoah - MLB
Brett Baty - MLB
Keoni Cavaco - High A (Released)
Bryson Stott - MLB
Will Wilson - AA
Corbin Carroll - MLB
Jackson Rutledge - MLB
Quinn Priester - MLB
Zack Thompson - MLB
George Kirby - MLB
Braden Shewmake - MLB
Greg Jones - MLB
Michael Toglia - MLB
Daniel Espino - AAA
Kody Hoese - AAA
Blake Walston - MLB
Ryan Jensen - AAA
Ethan Small - MLB
Logan Davidson - AAA
Anthony Volpe - MLB
 

This confirms without a doubt that Cavaco was not only by far the worst pick of the 2019 Draft, but one of the worst first round picks in the history of baseball. He is the only player on the list who never even made it to Double-A ball, and is the only player on the list who has been released.

 

[Craig Arko]

Let’s not and say we did.

[dxpavelka]

Bad pick?  Yes.  Worst in this draft?  Yes.  Worst in the history of baseball? Do a deeper dive going back 50 plus years and get back to me.  I'll wait.

[FlyingFinn]

6 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Worst in the history of baseball? Do a deeper dive going back 50 plus years

Martin Cott, 1968, third overall pick of the Astros. He was a catcher and made it to Cavaco's level, A ball. The very next pick..................Thurman Munson.

[bighat]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

Bad pick?  Yes.  Worst in this draft?  Yes.  Worst in the history of baseball? Do a deeper dive going back 50 plus years and get back to me.  I'll wait.

I said "one of the worst first round picks in the history of baseball". 

I think that's accurate. 

[DJL44]

The Twins got Wallner, Varland, Julien, Steer, Canterino, Headrick, Gipson-Long and Legumina out of this draft but by all means keep complaining about Keoni Cavaco.

[bighat]

22 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins got Wallner, Varland, Julien, Steer, Canterino, Headrick, Gipson-Long and Legumina out of this draft but by all means keep complaining about Keoni Cavaco.

I'm sorry, this thread isn't about Wallner, Varland, Julien, and the rest of 'em (none of whom have contributed much value to the Twins for what it's worth).

If you'd like to make a post about them, you are welcome to do so. Just click "Forums" and then "Start New Topic". 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

5 hours ago, bighat said:

Last week the Twins released Keoni Cavaco, the #13 pick of the 2019 MLB Draft. At the time, MLB.com said of Cavaco: "He possesses an exciting package of tools, starting with his power-speed combination. He also fits the third-base profile to a T with his pop and strong arm".

Clearly everyone misjudged Cavaco. But just how bad was this pick? Let's take a look at the top 30 picks of the 2019 draft class and see whether or not they made it to "The Show". Anyone with "MLB" next to their name has played in the big leagues. Others are highlighted with their highest level of achievement next to their names: 

Adley Rutschman - MLB 
Bobby Witt Jr. - MLB 
Andrew Vaughn - MLB 
JJ Bleday - MLB 
Riley Greene - MLB
C.J. Abrams - MLB
Nick Lodolo - MLB
Josh Jung - MLB
Shea Langeliers - MLB
Hunter Bishop - AAA
Alek Manoah - MLB
Brett Baty - MLB
Keoni Cavaco - High A (Released)
Bryson Stott - MLB
Will Wilson - AA
Corbin Carroll - MLB
Jackson Rutledge - MLB
Quinn Priester - MLB
Zack Thompson - MLB
George Kirby - MLB
Braden Shewmake - MLB
Greg Jones - MLB
Michael Toglia - MLB
Daniel Espino - AAA
Kody Hoese - AAA
Blake Walston - MLB
Ryan Jensen - AAA
Ethan Small - MLB
Logan Davidson - AAA
Anthony Volpe - MLB
 

This confirms without a doubt that Cavaco was not only by far the worst pick of the 2019 Draft, but one of the worst first round picks in the history of baseball. He is the only player on the list who never even made it to Double-A ball, and is the only player on the list who has been released.

 

Bad pick but that draft was still very very good,  

1st round - Matt Wallner  AAA, MLB

2nd round - Centerino - AAA (talent, can't stay healthy,  last really chance here later this year into next year)

3rd - Spencer Steer- MLB

5th - Will Holland -  AAA  (hit tool finally coming around could be MLB bound soon)

6th -  Sawyer  Gipson Long - MLB tigers

7th - Anthony Prato - AAA  (down this year, otherwise looked like top 2-3 options to go to MLB with injuries) 

8th - Casey Legumina - MLB

9th - Brent Headrick - AAA, MLB  see where he is once healthy

15th - Louie Varland - AAA, MLB - looked like a player struggling this year

18th - Edouard Julien - AAA, MLB -  looked like top 50 player last year,  still solid this year, but need to improve hit tool

 

 

 

 

 

[Parfigliano]

Baseball's tough.  Draft picks are funny...Cavaco 1st round huge bust...Piazza last round all-star.

[Road trip]

2 hours ago, bighat said:

I said "one of the worst first round picks in the history of baseball". 

I think that's accurate. 

It's a really bad pick, but probably doesn't qualify as an all time bad pick due to the following players who were picked first overall, not just a first-rounder:

2014 - Astros - Brady Aiken
1991 - Yankees - Brien Taylor
1966 - Mets - Steve Chilcott

None of these 3 saw MLB time.  I could list several other first overall picks that had very short MLB careers.  Former Twin Danny Goodwin is worth a mention.  Drafted overall #1 out of both high school and college by the Sox and then the Angels, he managed an inglorious -1.7 WAR in a couple hundred games.

Being picked #13 overall as Cavoca was intuitively seems like it isn't that big a drop from #1 overall pick, but it actually is.  The history of #13 overall picks is littered with guys who never made the majors... roughly a third of them never made it.  See https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=13&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick

So, yeah, terrible pick that the Twins would like to do over, but not historically bad.  Back in the day they've had several that were worse including:

Adam Johnson, #2 overall, 2000
BJ Garbe, #5 overall, 1999
Ryan Mills, #6 overall, 1998

That era was a really disastrous stretch of drafts...
 

[bean5302]

27 minutes ago, Road trip said:

It's a really bad pick, but probably doesn't qualify as an all time bad pick due to the following players who were picked first overall, not just a first-rounder:

2014 - Astros - Brady Aiken
1991 - Yankees - Brien Taylor
1966 - Mets - Steve Chilcott

None of these 3 saw MLB time.  I could list several other first overall picks that had very short MLB careers.  Former Twin Danny Goodwin is worth a mention.  Drafted overall #1 out of both high school and college by the Sox and then the Angels, he managed an inglorious -1.7 WAR in a couple hundred games.

Being picked #13 overall as Cavoca was intuitively seems like it isn't that big a drop from #1 overall pick, but it actually is.  The history of #13 overall picks is littered with guys who never made the majors... roughly a third of them never made it.  See https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=13&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick

So, yeah, terrible pick that the Twins would like to do over, but not historically bad.  Back in the day they've had several that were worse including:

Adam Johnson, #2 overall, 2000
BJ Garbe, #5 overall, 1999
Ryan Mills, #6 overall, 1998

That era was a really disastrous stretch of drafts...
 

Let's not forget Houston's bungle the year before Aiken, either. Two 1st overall picks, back to back, that were total and complete busts. At least the Astros traded Appel off.

As you point out, mid first rounders aren't much different than late first rounders in terms of the studies of success rates.

[SF Twins Fan]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins got Wallner, Varland, Julien, Steer, Canterino, Headrick, Gipson-Long and Legumina out of this draft but by all means keep complaining about Keoni Cavaco.

Just think how good that draft had been if the Twins had drafted Corbin Carroll, who was drafted 3 picks after Cavaco.

[bighat]

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

It's a really bad pick, but probably doesn't qualify as an all time bad pick due to the following players who were picked first overall, not just a first-rounder:

2014 - Astros - Brady Aiken
1991 - Yankees - Brien Taylor
1966 - Mets - Steve Chilcott

None of these 3 saw MLB time.  I could list several other first overall picks that had very short MLB careers.  Former Twin Danny Goodwin is worth a mention.  Drafted overall #1 out of both high school and college by the Sox and then the Angels, he managed an inglorious -1.7 WAR in a couple hundred games.

Being picked #13 overall as Cavoca was intuitively seems like it isn't that big a drop from #1 overall pick, but it actually is.  The history of #13 overall picks is littered with guys who never made the majors... roughly a third of them never made it.  See https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=13&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick

So, yeah, terrible pick that the Twins would like to do over, but not historically bad.  Back in the day they've had several that were worse including:

Adam Johnson, #2 overall, 2000
BJ Garbe, #5 overall, 1999
Ryan Mills, #6 overall, 1998

That era was a really disastrous stretch of drafts...
 

Well said, and well written - thanks for sharing this info! 

[bighat]

Just now, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Did anybody claim him?

I don't think so. Status just says "released" on his MiLB page: https://www.milb.com/player/keoni-cavaco-686577

[DJL44]

41 minutes ago, SF Twins Fan said:

Just think how good that draft had been if the Twins had drafted Corbin Carroll, who was drafted 3 picks after Cavaco.

Just think how good every draft would be if you could do it over with 5 years of hindsight.

[Roaddog]

On 6/24/2024 at 11:05 AM, Road trip said:

It's a really bad pick, but probably doesn't qualify as an all time bad pick due to the following players who were picked first overall, not just a first-rounder:

2014 - Astros - Brady Aiken
1991 - Yankees - Brien Taylor
1966 - Mets - Steve Chilcott

None of these 3 saw MLB time.  I could list several other first overall picks that had very short MLB careers.  Former Twin Danny Goodwin is worth a mention.  Drafted overall #1 out of both high school and college by the Sox and then the Angels, he managed an inglorious -1.7 WAR in a couple hundred games.

Being picked #13 overall as Cavoca was intuitively seems like it isn't that big a drop from #1 overall pick, but it actually is.  The history of #13 overall picks is littered with guys who never made the majors... roughly a third of them never made it.  See https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=13&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick

So, yeah, terrible pick that the Twins would like to do over, but not historically bad.  Back in the day they've had several that were worse including:

Adam Johnson, #2 overall, 2000
BJ Garbe, #5 overall, 1999
Ryan Mills, #6 overall, 1998

That era was a really disastrous stretch of drafts...
 

I remember Mills. Everyone thought he was gonna be good. He got shelled in the College World Series right before getting drafted.. I was reading and there far worse picks. Detroit drafted 2 busts back to back in the same draft

[Road trip]

On 6/24/2024 at 12:04 PM, SF Twins Fan said:

Just think how good that draft had been if the Twins had drafted Corbin Carroll, who was drafted 3 picks after Cavaco.

Nah, can't use Carroll, Twins would have him languishing in AAA and the fan base would've turned on him.

Three players, 2024 slash lines, try to pick out Carroll:

.207/.309/.367
.201/.270/.384
.211/.305/.313

 

*Hint* the other two are young Twins who had prior success, although not quite at Carroll's 2023 level.

Of course, Arizona is playing the long game and letting Carroll work things out.  They know they have limited resources, so young players are their future.  

Players 1 and 2 above are Julien and Kirilloff, Carroll is player 3, worst OPS of the bunch.

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Nah, can't use Carroll, Twins would have him languishing in AAA and the fan base would've turned on him.

Three players, 2024 slash lines, try to pick out Carroll:

.207/.309/.367
.201/.270/.384
.211/.305/.313

 

*Hint* the other two are young Twins who had prior success, although not quite at Carroll's 2023 level.

Of course, Arizona is playing the long game and letting Carroll work things out.  They know they have limited resources, so young players are their future.  

Players 1 and 2 above are Julien and Kirilloff, Carroll is player 3, worst OPS of the bunch.

To be fair, Arizona is 2 games under .500, Pavin Smith and Jorge Barrosa are the 2 outfielders on their 40-man they could replace him with, and they don't have any other big time young outfielders close to the majors. Not all rosters are created equal. 

The Twins have better options to replace Julien and Kirilloff than the Diamondbacks have to replace Carroll.