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The Trade Deadline : What Do We Need, Where Can We Get it, and What Will it Cost?


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Posted

The Trade Deadline will be upon us soon. My premise is that the Twins as constructed are not true contenders but are close; they could move into true contenders status with an upgrade or two. To me, that means it's time to seek a trade while being careful about the cost.

Let's start with what we need between the starting rotation, bullpen, and starting lineup:

What We Need

Starting Rotation - This is our biggest drop off from last season and the this is the area of our biggest need IMHO. The starting staff's current ERA is 4.67, with a 4.11 FIP. In 2023, the starting staff of the 3.82 ERA, and a 3.73 FIP. The primary differences are (1) we've replaced Gray (2.79 ERA/2.83 FIP) with Paddack (5.26 ERA/4.17 FIP) and Varland (9.18 ERA/7.65 FIP), and Pablo Lopez is not the same pitcher, at least so far, with his ERA going from 3.66 to to 5.45 and his FIP from 3.33 to 4.15. I would argue that we've actually improved in the fifth starter position with Woods – Richardson at a 2.84 ERA with a 3.55 FIP, as compared to Maeda's 4.26 ERA and 3.96 FIP. The 2024 Starters giving up basically .75 more runs a game is a real difference. 

Lineup - This is our secondary need. Our team BA, OBP, and SLG are all down, as is true across baseball. More importantly since the games are won and lost based on runs scored, the Twins have moved from 10th most runs scored in baseball to 16th, and the eye test tells me we are much less consistent in the order. We can certainly use another bat either from my minor-league promotion or in a trade. Given the offense of struggles around baseball, however, that is going to be expensive.

Bullpen - I actually think we're good here. This year's bullpen has a ERA/FIP/X FIP/line of 3.59/3.74/3.88 , as compared to last year's 3.95/4.14/4.19. This also seems to comport with the eye test. Now injuries could kill the current bullpen although I think we actually have more depth than last year and will have less of a need to give innings to washed up vets and unproven minor leaguers. Also, we could strengthen the bullpen even further if we pick up a starting pitcher and move Paddack bullpen and/or do what I think is inevitable for at least 2024 and move Varland to the bullpen.

Conclusion - What we really need is another starting pitcher and it would be very helpful although less essential to get another bat. The other thing we really need is for Pablo Lopez to pitch like the 2023 version instead of the 2024 version although that alone is not enough.

Who Can We Get and What Will It Cost

We now get into the realm of the truly subjective when projecting who is available and what the cost would be. What I'm doing here is only listing players that have been listed by more respected sources as being made available by their teams. This is always going to be subjective, but fun. I'm only listing players who have control past this year. NO rentals. I'm not interested in trading prospects for two months of anyone who isn't at least as good as Aaron Judge. This team isn't so close to a World Series title that it's worth trading for rental. I also have included anybody within over $15 million year contract since that's a hard pass for this front office. When you eliminate the rentals, the picture becomes a lot clearer. I'm interested in everyone's opinions. Who appears to be available:
 

Starting Pitchers -

Jesus Luzardo (Marlins) - 2.5 years of control through 2026, $5.5 million contract this year

Tyler Anderson (Angels) - signed through 2025, $13m a season in 2024 aand 2025

Patrick Sandoval (Angels) - controlled through 2026, $5.025 million contract this year

Trevor Williams (Nats) - $6m 2024, $7m 2025 (former reliever turned starter this year)

Erick Fedde (White Sox) - $6.5m 2024, $7.5m 2025

Lucas Erceg (As) - pre-arbitration, controlled through 2030

Bats - 

Taylor Ward (LF, Angels) - Controlled through 2026, $4.8 million contract this year -  (.247/.324/.431 (.754), 112 OPS+, 11 HRs, 34 RBIs in 239 Abs 

Randy Arozarena (LF, Rays) - controlled through 2026, it $8.1 million contract this year - (.179/.288/.326 (.614) in 2024, lifetime .780 OPS, 123 OPS+)

Luis Rengifo (2B, Angels) - controlled through 2025, $4.4 million contract this year - (.316/.367/.488 (.815), 130 OPS+)

Isaac Paredes (3B, Rays) - controlled through 2027, $3.4 million contract this year - (.288/.373/.482(.855), 146 OPS+)

Brent Rooker (OF/DH, As) - controlled through 2027, $750,000 contract this year - (.270/.356/.541 (.897), 159 OPS+

Jazz Chisholm (2B/CF, Marlins) - controlled through 2026, $2.625 million contract this year - (.249/.316/.429 (.745), 107 OPS+)

Jo Adell (Corner OF, Angels) -  controlled through 2027, $770,000 contract this year (.189/.253/.426 (.679). 88 OPS+

This leaves me with three ways to go. First is to trade for Jesus Lusardo, probably the best starter of the bunch. He will cost us a top 100 prospect and Gabriel Gonzalez will not be enough. The second would be to trade for combination of Taylor Ward or Luis Rengifo and Tyler Anderson from the Angels. We might be able to get away without a top 100 prospect or Gonzalez being that prospect as part of a package. The third would be the trade for our old friend Brent Rooker. Hard to believe he will be 30 years old in November. You have to think he will cost 2 or 3 B/B+ level prospects. 

Here are my thoughts in a couple of packages - 

Option 1:

Twins get: Tyler Anderson and Taylor Ward

Angels get: Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner, Luke Keaschall or Tanner Scholbel,  and Marco Raya or Corey Lewis, plus A ball guy

Option 2:

Twins get: Tyler Anderson, Luis Rengifo

Angels get: Edouard Julien, 2 of Louie Varland, Zebby Matthews, Jaylen Nowlin, Either Varland and Nowlin, or Matthews, Nowlin, and a decent non-pitching prospect like Schobel or Rosario. 

Option 3:

Twins get; Jesus Luzardo and Jazz Chisholm

Marlins get;  Brooks Lee, Louie Varland, Luke Keaschall

Option 4:

Twins get: Brent Rooker

As get: Marco Raya, Tanner Schobel

What does everyone think? Are there good trade targets out there that I'm missing that are controllable beyond 2024? Remember, I'm assuming were not interested in rental since there isn't one guy out there that would take us over the top, not even Pete Alonso. Am I overpaying for any of these guys? Inquiring minds want to know . . .

 

 

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
On 6/10/2024 at 6:31 PM, LA VIkes Fan said:

The Trade Deadline will be upon us soon. My premise is that the Twins as constructed are not true contenders but are close; they could move into true contenders status with an upgrade or two. To me, that means it's time to seek a trade while being careful about the cost.

Let's start with what we need between the starting rotation, bullpen, and starting lineup:

What We Need

Starting Rotation - This is our biggest drop off from last season and the this is the area of our biggest need IMHO. The starting staff's current ERA is 4.67, with a 4.11 FIP. In 2023, the starting staff of the 3.82 ERA, and a 3.73 FIP. The primary differences are (1) we've replaced Gray (2.79 ERA/2.83 FIP) with Paddack (5.26 ERA/4.17 FIP) and Varland (9.18 ERA/7.65 FIP), and Pablo Lopez is not the same pitcher, at least so far, with his ERA going from 3.66 to to 5.45 and his FIP from 3.33 to 4.15. I would argue that we've actually improved in the fifth starter position with Woods – Richardson at a 2.84 ERA with a 3.55 FIP, as compared to Maeda's 4.26 ERA and 3.96 FIP. The 2024 Starters giving up basically .75 more runs a game is a real difference. 

Lineup - This is our secondary need. Our team BA, OBP, and SLG are all down, as is true across baseball. More importantly since the games are won and lost based on runs scored, the Twins have moved from 10th most runs scored in baseball to 16th, and the eye test tells me we are much less consistent in the order. We can certainly use another bat either from my minor-league promotion or in a trade. Given the offense of struggles around baseball, however, that is going to be expensive.

Bullpen - I actually think we're good here. This year's bullpen has a ERA/FIP/X FIP/line of 3.59/3.74/3.88 , as compared to last year's 3.95/4.14/4.19. This also seems to comport with the eye test. Now injuries could kill the current bullpen although I think we actually have more depth than last year and will have less of a need to give innings to washed up vets and unproven minor leaguers. Also, we could strengthen the bullpen even further if we pick up a starting pitcher and move Paddack bullpen and/or do what I think is inevitable for at least 2024 and move Varland to the bullpen.

Conclusion - What we really need is another starting pitcher and it would be very helpful although less essential to get another bat. The other thing we really need is for Pablo Lopez to pitch like the 2023 version instead of the 2024 version although that alone is not enough.

Who Can We Get and What Will It Cost

We now get into the realm of the truly subjective when projecting who is available and what the cost would be. What I'm doing here is only listing players that have been listed by more respected sources as being made available by their teams. This is always going to be subjective, but fun. I'm only listing players who have control past this year. NO rentals. I'm not interested in trading prospects for two months of anyone who isn't at least as good as Aaron Judge. This team isn't so close to a World Series title that it's worth trading for rental. I also have included anybody within over $15 million year contract since that's a hard pass for this front office. When you eliminate the rentals, the picture becomes a lot clearer. I'm interested in everyone's opinions. Who appears to be available:
 

Starting Pitchers -

Jesus Luzardo (Marlins) - 2.5 years of control through 2026, $5.5 million contract this year

Tyler Anderson (Angels) - signed through 2025, $13m a season in 2024 aand 2025

Patrick Sandoval (Angels) - controlled through 2026, $5.025 million contract this year

Trevor Williams (Nats) - $6m 2024, $7m 2025 (former reliever turned starter this year)

Erick Fedde (White Sox) - $6.5m 2024, $7.5m 2025

Lucas Erceg (As) - pre-arbitration, controlled through 2030

Bats - 

Taylor Ward (LF, Angels) - Controlled through 2026, $4.8 million contract this year -  (.247/.324/.431 (.754), 112 OPS+, 11 HRs, 34 RBIs in 239 Abs 

Randy Arozarena (LF, Rays) - controlled through 2026, it $8.1 million contract this year - (.179/.288/.326 (.614) in 2024, lifetime .780 OPS, 123 OPS+)

Luis Rengifo (2B, Angels) - controlled through 2025, $4.4 million contract this year - (.316/.367/.488 (.815), 130 OPS+)

Isaac Paredes (3B, Rays) - controlled through 2027, $3.4 million contract this year - (.288/.373/.482(.855), 146 OPS+)

Brent Rooker (OF/DH, As) - controlled through 2027, $750,000 contract this year - (.270/.356/.541 (.897), 159 OPS+

Jazz Chisholm (2B/CF, Marlins) - controlled through 2026, $2.625 million contract this year - (.249/.316/.429 (.745), 107 OPS+)

Jo Adell (Corner OF, Angels) -  controlled through 2027, $770,000 contract this year (.189/.253/.426 (.679). 88 OPS+

This leaves me with three ways to go. First is to trade for Jesus Lusardo, probably the best starter of the bunch. He will cost us a top 100 prospect and Gabriel Gonzalez will not be enough. The second would be to trade for combination of Taylor Ward or Luis Rengifo and Tyler Anderson from the Angels. We might be able to get away without a top 100 prospect or Gonzalez being that prospect as part of a package. The third would be the trade for our old friend Brent Rooker. Hard to believe he will be 30 years old in November. You have to think he will cost 2 or 3 B/B+ level prospects. 

Here are my thoughts in a couple of packages - 

Option 1:

Twins get: Tyler Anderson and Taylor Ward

Angels get: Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner, Luke Keaschall or Tanner Scholbel,  and Marco Raya or Corey Lewis, plus A ball guy

Option 2:

Twins get: Tyler Anderson, Luis Rengifo

Angels get: Edouard Julien, 2 of Louie Varland, Zebby Matthews, Jaylen Nowlin, Either Varland and Nowlin, or Matthews, Nowlin, and a decent non-pitching prospect like Schobel or Rosario. 

Option 3:

Twins get; Jesus Luzardo and Jazz Chisholm

Marlins get;  Brooks Lee, Louie Varland, Luke Keaschall

Option 4:

Twins get: Brent Rooker

As get: Marco Raya, Tanner Schobel

What does everyone think? Are there good trade targets out there that I'm missing that are controllable beyond 2024? Remember, I'm assuming were not interested in rental since there isn't one guy out there that would take us over the top, not even Pete Alonso. Am I overpaying for any of these guys? Inquiring minds want to know . . .

 

 

I like the idea of getting Jesus Luzardo, but giving up Brooks Lee is a steep price IMO.

Posted

I like the idea of trying to improve the team by trades, but I think that in each one of those trade scenarios that you outline, the Twins are giving up too many quality prospects for players that really may not make much of a difference to our overall ability to win more games. Many people seem enchanted with Luzardo but he's never really shown much consistency. And outside of trying for him, not much else moves the needle for me. Yeah, I think our starting pitching needs some sort of help, seeing as how Lopez and Paddack haven't performed as expected this season, but I'd be VERY reluctant to trade away good prospects like Marco Raya and Zebby Matthews for someone like Rooker or Jo Adell. 

Posted

Thanks for the detail. You listed many intriguing options.

I hope they get a long enough second look at Wallner and Julien before any deadline decisions. I would do that before making any moves now. They also have Lee and Rodriguez as options.

I wonder if there will be an opportunity to look at David Festa also. Stewart is throwing from the mound. Will we see him in July?

It is never too early to deal for an everyday hitter that you put in the middle of the line up or a starter that fits in at the top of the rotation. I think it is too early to make a deal for the players that aren’t as impactful. They need to give an opportunity to their in house options first.

Posted

I agree with that approach jorgenswest, I'm just not in complete agreement on who should get that look. We need another starting pitcher, a middle of the order bat, and a late inning reliever. I think the three key players to get an extended run at the MLB level are Brooks Lee and Louie Varland (first in the rotation, then the bullpen), with Festa getting at least a 2 to 3 start look in the rotation. Not only that, I think the opportunity to do so is here without disrupting clubhouse chemistry by releasing or a DFA of someone.

Kepler had neck spasms in last night's game and bunted his last time up because he couldn't swing the bat. That doesn't seem like something that will clear in a day or two, more like at least a week. He's slumping as well. I would put him on the 10 day IL right now and call up Lee. I know Lee is an infielder not an outfielder, but the good news is Castro becomes the regular RF for now with Martin the primary LF, and Larnach and Margot in reserve or platoon roles. Also, Lee is a switch hitter so he replaces the left-handed bat against right-handed pitching. I say we bring up Lee and essentially give him the 2B role almost every day with Farmer playing only against left-handed pitching.

On the pitching side, I would call up Varland and find a good reason to put Paddack on the 15 day IL after his start this weekend in Oakland. He's going to need the rest at some point this season and he looks like he's out of gas for now. Give Varland two or three starts and then keep him in the bullpen at the MLB level. I would also try to find a way to shoehorn in two or three starts for Festa. The idea is that when we get to mid July, we have a sense for whether we have internal options that will fill any of our needs before paying inflated prices at the midseason trade market.

What about Wallner and Julien, you ask? Unfortunately, neither has shown enough in AAA to really get another shot yet. Wallner has hit well lately but against the bad pitching staffs in that league. The problem with projecting is that in AAA they play an entire week against the same team so stats get inflated against bad teams, and even against good teams you see the same relievers multiple times. It's easier to go on a hot streak in AAA. If Wallner can keep it up when they start playing the better pitching staffs, then maybe it's worth a shot. Julien has not yet had that hot streak. I think were at least three weeks to a month away from knowing whether it's worth giving either player a shot to see if they are the answer to our questions.

Posted

I'm in on Luzardo and Yandy Diaz.

Lee and lower prospects for Luzardo. Or 4-5 prospects in the 10-20 range. Was going to add Kirilloff but I don't think anyone touches him at this point. 

Gabriel Gonzalez and Raya for Diaz.

Fill out OF and RP through our pipeline. 

Posted

I do think we could use another good starting pitcher. I've long liked Luzardo, but I worry a bit about him as I see a slight drop in his average fastball velocity over the last month or so, and his 5/9 is lower than it has been in many years. 

IF Brooks Lee can come up and cover 2b (which I think he can, and I think he's not that far away) then I think Willi Castro could still be a full time player in a corner spot, and that could mitigate the need for a bat potentially. If not, I'd look hard at the corner outfield options closer to the end of July and see where we are at. That wouldn't be as much of a need today as it is when we know how healthy we are playing come that time.

Bullpen, I'd be open to looking for a good lefty setup man, or at least someone who can get lefties out consistently. 

 

 

Posted
On 6/19/2024 at 7:46 AM, laloesch said:

I like the idea of getting Jesus Luzardo, but giving up Brooks Lee is a steep price IMO.

No Lee for Luzardo.

Posted
2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

...What about Wallner and Julien, you ask? Unfortunately, neither has shown enough in AAA to really get another shot yet. Wallner has hit well lately but against the bad pitching staffs in that league...

Not sure what you want from Wallner. OPS 5.000 or bust? He was one of the best hitters in all MLB last year, in a not insignificant sample size of 254 plate appearances so you'd think that would earn him a little leeway.

Wallner's last 20 games he has 14 games with a wRC+ of 135+ while reaching base in 18 of 20 games owning a .333/.409/.821 OPS 1.230 wRC+ 202. But, let's go ahead and test your theory. Here are the starter ERAs after Wallner hit against them. For reference, median ERA in the International League right now is 4.90 for pitchers with 40+ innings.
5/29 = 5.03
5/30 = 3.75, promoted to MLB
5/31 = 6.22
6/1 = 6.15
6/2 = 5.64
6/5 = 2.97 wRC+ 143
6/6 = 7.29
6/6(2) = 7.46
6/7 = 3.86 wRC+ -4
6/8 = 3.86 (journeyman MLB) wRC+ -100
6/9 = 3.65 combined (1.0-2.0 innings 5 pitchers) wRC+ 40
6/11 = 3.66 wRC+ 143
6/12 = 3.86 (journeyman MLB) wRC+ 135
6/13 = 7.74 (0.1 IP), next 5.2 IP = 2.28 ERA wRC+ 492
6/14 = 9.85
6/15 = 4.50 wRC+ 631
6/16 = 4.26 wRC+ 380

6/18 = 4.79 (journeyman MLB)
6/19 = 5.77
6/20 = 3.95 (came in with 3.26...) wRC+ 192

10 of the 15 starters he's seen with an ERA of 4.50 or lower over the past couple weeks, and Wallner has performed well in 7 of those games. Of course, I'd imagine some of Wallner's stats have come from relievers, too, but whatever.

I can't wait to see the next odd theory people propose as to why Wallner is no good. 

Posted

Can't understand why you want an aging #5 starter like Tyler Anderson on a $13MM contract for this and next year or why you think the Twins should/would give up anything of value to get him. It's like extending Desclafani to a $13MM deal...

Career = 4.18 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 4.54 xFIP
2024 = 2.48 ERA, 4.55 FIP, 5.09 xFIP

One of these things doesn't fit the rest...

Posted
18 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

No Lee for Luzardo.

This may be recency bias, but I've soured on the idea of trading Lee at all. I'd rather he was up with the major-league club. I'm starting to think he may be thee hitter we need to pair with Lewis.

Posted
14 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Not sure what you want from Wallner. OPS 5.000 or bust? He was one of the best hitters in all MLB last year, in a not insignificant sample size of 254 plate appearances so you'd think that would earn him a little leeway.

Wallner's last 20 games he has 14 games with a wRC+ of 135+ while reaching base in 18 of 20 games owning a .333/.409/.821 OPS 1.230 wRC+ 202. But, let's go ahead and test your theory. Here are the starter ERAs after Wallner hit against them. For reference, median ERA in the International League right now is 4.90 for pitchers with 40+ innings.
5/29 = 5.03
5/30 = 3.75, promoted to MLB
5/31 = 6.22
6/1 = 6.15
6/2 = 5.64
6/5 = 2.97 wRC+ 143
6/6 = 7.29
6/6(2) = 7.46
6/7 = 3.86 wRC+ -4
6/8 = 3.86 (journeyman MLB) wRC+ -100
6/9 = 3.65 combined (1.0-2.0 innings 5 pitchers) wRC+ 40
6/11 = 3.66 wRC+ 143
6/12 = 3.86 (journeyman MLB) wRC+ 135
6/13 = 7.74 (0.1 IP), next 5.2 IP = 2.28 ERA wRC+ 492
6/14 = 9.85
6/15 = 4.50 wRC+ 631
6/16 = 4.26 wRC+ 380

6/18 = 4.79 (journeyman MLB)
6/19 = 5.77
6/20 = 3.95 (came in with 3.26...) wRC+ 192

10 of the 15 starters he's seen with an ERA of 4.50 or lower over the past couple weeks, and Wallner has performed well in 7 of those games. Of course, I'd imagine some of Wallner's stats have come from relievers, too, but whatever.

I can't wait to see the next odd theory people propose as to why Wallner is no good. 

No one is saying that Waller is no good, at least I'm not. But you can't cherry pick the stats either. Waller has struck out 79 times in 240 AAA plate appearances, almost exactly a 33% strikeout rate in AAA. The strikeout rate was over 50% in MLB before he was sent down. Waller was bad in the playoffs last year, bad in Spring Training, and bad in April. He was bad when he first got to AAA for about three weeks. He is definitely been hitting better over the last three weeks after having that very slow start in AAA. Still, the strikeout rate has to improve the before he can return to the MLB level absent a need to bring them up as an injury replacement.

I think Wallner has a chance to be back with the Twins after the All Star break if he continues to hit like this. He is not the first call up though. Brooks Lee is hitting better, striking out less, and fielding better; he is just playing better overall. He is the next call up from AAA on the hitting side. It doesn't matter whether you call up an infielder or an outfielder because Castro can play either in the grass or on the dirt. That gives the Twins the luxury of calling up the best player next and that's Brooks Lee. Walter could be back but he's going to need to show improvement in the strikeout rate and continue to hit for an extended period before he's going to get another shot IMO. He was very bad for an extended period so we shouldn't just have him jump up back into the majors absent showing that he solved his problems for an extended period.

 

Posted
2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

IF Brooks Lee can come up and cover 2b (which I think he can, and I think he's not that far away) then I think Willi Castro could still be a full time player in a corner spot, and that could mitigate the need for a bat potentially.

Brooks Lee is a long-term play, not a deadline addition to the lineup. He's most likely going to be inconsistent as weaknesses get exposed and he makes adjustments.

Posted
57 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

No one is saying that Waller is no good, at least I'm not. But you can't cherry pick the stats either. Waller has struck out 79 times in 240 AAA plate appearances, almost exactly a 33% strikeout rate in AAA. The strikeout rate was over 50% in MLB before he was sent down. Waller was bad in the playoffs last year, bad in Spring Training, and bad in April. He was bad when he first got to AAA for about three weeks...

 

...when you shamelessly cherry pick your stats while talking about cherry picking being a problem.

Posted
1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Brooks Lee is a long-term play, not a deadline addition to the lineup. He's most likely going to be inconsistent as weaknesses get exposed and he makes adjustments.

Maybe, but can he outproduce what 2b mostly has been so far this year already? I think so. 

Playoff level starting pitcher is the goal for me by the deadline for sure. But what position would you (barring health) want them to add via trade on the position player side?

Posted
5 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Maybe, but can he outproduce what 2b mostly has been so far this year already? I think so. 

Playoff level starting pitcher is the goal for me by the deadline for sure. But what position would you (barring health) want them to add via trade on the position player side?

Willi Castro has been quite good this year. Brooks Lee is unlikely to post an OPS+ > 125.

Posted
8 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Willi Castro has been quite good this year. Brooks Lee is unlikely to post an OPS+ > 125.

I agree. He has been a stud this year. He also has played 3b and the outfield more than he has 2b, which has only been 15 games for him so far. 
I am not at all saying Castro is going anywhere. Frankly I could see him becoming either our primary left fielder this season or continuing in a utility role and play everywhere. 

Posted

I think if we go big we should go after a player like JD Martinez.  He is on a 1 year 12 million contract and is a great hitter.  I don't think he is a great OF by any means but could play 20-30 games there maybe 10 at 1B and the rest at DH.  If we can include Margot in the trade. we offset more of the salary.  If we could include both farmer and Margot the salary gain would be so minimal.  I wonder what we would have to give the Mets to get him?  In the second half of the season he could hit .280/.350/.520 with 15-20 HRs which would be a nice addition to the lineup.  (and he is actually hitting around that so far this season)  

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