Extension Tied to Bailey Ober in More Than One Way

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota Twins starter Bailey Ober is in a much different place this spring than last year. So, how do projection models view the starter, and would a contract extension before Opening Day make sense?

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Last spring, Bailey Ober entered camp knowing he was the odd man out. The Twins had five starters ahead of him on the depth chart, and he was likely heading to Triple-A to begin the year. It was a tough spot, especially since Ober had proved himself a big-league-caliber starter. He took everything in stride, and the Twins needed to call him up shortly after the season began to take over a spot in the rotation.

The lanky right-handed hurler made 26 starts for the parent club, and posted a 3.43 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP in 144 innings. He combined for a 146-to-29 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a career-high 125 ERA+. There have been questions about Ober’s workload early in his career as he entered last year with only one professional season of more than 100 combined innings pitched. Between the Saints and the Twins, Ober combined for 167 innings in 2023, with his eyes set on a higher total this season. So, did Ober feel weary after throwing those innings?

“Physically, no. Mentally, yeah, it gets hard towards the end [of the season] because you have to be locked in for the entire year,” he said to Twins Daily co-founder John Bonnes.

Reviewing the 2023 campaign, one might think that Ober would've seen a drop in his velocity at the end of the season, because of his workload. Reality is a bit messier. He saw a velocity sag in the middle of last season, and bounced back at the end of the year. In September, Ober posted a 2.08 ERA with a 0.69 WHIP, while holding opponents to a .476 OPS. Below is a comparison of the team’s top four starters last season. The dots are individual starts, and the line is a five-game rolling average. 

While his performance peaked in September, there might have been signs of fatigue. His release point trended upward, which can signify fatigue for a tall pitcher throwing from a low slot. Also, Ober’s extension trended downward as the season wore on. Those are both mechanical adjustments that he can be aware of during the upcoming season, especially with the goals he has set for innings pitched.

“Honestly, I think since I threw a total of like 170 innings, I feel like I should be able to push that margin and hopefully try to get to 200,” Ober said,

So, what do projection models say about Ober reaching his lofty goals? ZiPS projects Ober to toss 144 innings with a 3.98 ERA and a 141-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Baseball Reference has him throwing even fewer innings (137), with a 3.81 ERA and a 137-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio. To reach 200 innings, Ober must overshoot his projections by quite a wide margin, but that can be expected when models look at his recent track record. There were also only five MLB pitchers to throw 200 innings during the 2023 season.

Ober is entering a critical juncture regarding the team approaching him about a possible contract extension. Since he was a 12th-round pick, he didn’t receive a high signing bonus out of college. He is also one year away from being arbitration-eligible, so he has yet to make life-changing money at any point in his career. It's more important than ever for the Twins to be opportunistic in this way, too, if they truly intend to "right-size" their payroll.

Could the Twins work out a contract extension similar to what the Brewers gave to Aaron Ashby? He signed a five-year, $20.5-million extension in July 2022, with team options for 2028 ($9 million) and 2029 ($13 million). Minnesota would likely need to have more guaranteed money, because Ober has more service time than Ashby had, but it gives an idea of a potential starting point.

There are multiple reasons why the 2024 season is critical for Ober and his long-term role with the team. Offering an extension to him might help calm some of the fans upset by the team’s lack of spending this winter. If he pitches close to 200 innings, the price tag on a potential extension will shoot up leading into his first arbitration season.

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Should the Twins approach Ober with an extension? How much should the team be willing to pay? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[TwinsDr2021]

Why would Ober sign a deal like Ashby? wouldn't he get more in the next three years of Arb? Why would the Twins do a 5 year deal when they have him for 4 more?

Also will be 26 shortly and Ober will be 29, not sure they are the best comparisons, there has to be better doesn't there? 

But if the twins can buy out 1 year of free agency and though age 32 season for cheap I guess why not. If I was running the Twins I wouldn't do it and would be looking more into trading him prior to 26 and Ryan prior to 27, because Festa, SWR, Raya and others better be there to replace them.

[sweetmusicviola16]

First of all,forget about 200 IP Bailey. Give us 165 solid IP again and that is plenty enough. Get us to the WS and you'll add another 25 or so on top of that.

As for Ashby that is a very poor comp imo. Bailey has actually been good an has pitched. Ashby has not. I would venture to say that Ober will reach 20 million in his 3 years of arb alone. As for buying out 2-4 years of FA, he knows that meh SP are getting 12-14 mil per season, like Ashby. I doubt that he would sell those off too cheaply though. 7/75

[Ricky Vaughn]

Bailey has been good for the most part since making his debut. He added volume last year, and believes in himself. I think an extension would take a lot more money than your talking.

[nicksaviking]

I wouldn't be opposed to an extension, but as it stands now he'll be nearly 33-years-old before he reaches free agency. If he accepts a deal to add an extra year of control for the Twins, he'll be about Sonny Gray's age before he gets to test the market, and Sonny Gray had to have a career year just to get a three year deal. If I were Ober, any years the team buys out, would need to be for a significant dollar amount.

[Doctor Gast]

30 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

First of all,forget about 200 IP Bailey. Give us 165 solid IP again and that is plenty enough. Get us to the WS and you'll add another 25 or so on top of that.

As for Ashby that is a very poor comp imo. Bailey has actually been good an has pitched. Ashby has not. I would venture to say that Ober will reach 20 million in his 3 years of arb alone. As for buying out 2-4 years of FA, he knows that meh SP are getting 12-14 mil per season, like Ashby. I doubt that he would sell those off too cheaply though. 7/75

My thoughts too. 200 IP is very ambitious. But having a pitcher that's hungry to go more is good. Not wasting his bullets in AAA this year should help his #s. 165+ of even higher-quality innings is what I expect. At Ober's age I don't know how big of an extension really matters.

[tony&rodney]

The little thing that separates Ober from most other pitchers is size; he is big. Taller pitchers take more time, on average, to reach their potential and then are able to sustain their effectiveness for a longer period of time, if they are able to refine those long levers. Ober is a big dude. He can pitch 200 innings as easily as any pitcher in baseball now that he seems to have managed those limbs. Like he said, physically he doesn't get tired or worn out. It has taken a couple of years for Ober to function comfortably with the mental side of the game, but if you watched him pitch physically tired wasn't a part of the equation. 

One cannot place Bailey Ober at the front of a rotation because he does not possess the type of velocity and stuff to blow hitters away like a Gerrit Cole or even Pablo Lopez. What Ober can do is take the ball every fifth day for an entire season and give the team 5-8 innings of solid pitching. 

The Twins are unlikely to be locking up middle rotation pitchers to long term high value contracts for now. Bailey will make a ton of money by the time his career is completed.

[nova_twins]

This is pretty straightforward, the twins can't generate enough surplus value by extending Ober because he's an injury risk already under team control. The numbers just don't work.

[Karbo]

With the additions to the pen and if the pen is anywhere near as good as the projections, no way does he or probably any of the starters, get near 200 IP.

[Jocko87]

First, signing an extension to calm fans upset by having an affordable contender isn't really a thing. 

As for an Ober extension, or a Ryan deal for that matter, they are roughly the same age as Pablo.  I had to double check because it wasn't front of mind, Paddack is the same age as well.  I just don't see this team spending anything on pitchers in their 32-33's as they believe in their development abilities and they will be valuable assets for 4 years plus either trade or QO possibilities.  32/33 is probably around the general cut off age for position players as well.

Its also an artifact of their general pitching philosophy and I wouldn't be surprised if it was a conscious decision to control costs.  I believe they are set up to only extend a pitcher in the most, most, most ideal of circumstances.  By focusing on college pitchers they can develop it also sets those careers up to hit the major league window at the optimum ages so they run out of control at an age they wouldn't be interested in signing them anyway.  Taking Pablo to age 31 is about the most optimal situation. 

Ober, Ryan, Varland, Canterino, Prhilepp etc will likely never see an extension with the Twins, no matter how good they are.  It just doesn't fit their model.  A Raya or Soto might have a chance but everything would have to go perfectly to make sense.  Any college pitcher has to move very quickly though the minors and have immediate success to work out but working in the middle rounds with moldable clay makes that unlikely as well.

Cost control doesn't matter much in this model either.  If a player is good enough to break the arbitration bank it will be worth it in on-field performance and trade/QO value.  In the more likely scenario that they are just solid pitchers the money might be less than a contract signed.  

[tony&rodney]

56 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

First, signing an extension to calm fans upset by having an affordable contender isn't really a thing. 

As for an Ober extension, or a Ryan deal for that matter, they are roughly the same age as Pablo.  I had to double check because it wasn't front of mind, Paddack is the same age as well.  I just don't see this team spending anything on pitchers in their 32-33's as they believe in their development abilities and they will be valuable assets for 4 years plus either trade or QO possibilities.  32/33 is probably around the general cut off age for position players as well.

Its also an artifact of their general pitching philosophy and I wouldn't be surprised if it was a conscious decision to control costs.  I believe they are set up to only extend a pitcher in the most, most, most ideal of circumstances.  By focusing on college pitchers they can develop it also sets those careers up to hit the major league window at the optimum ages so they run out of control at an age they wouldn't be interested in signing them anyway.  Taking Pablo to age 31 is about the most optimal situation. 

Ober, Ryan, Varland, Canterino, Prhilepp etc will likely never see an extension with the Twins, no matter how good they are.  It just doesn't fit their model.  A Raya or Soto might have a chance but everything would have to go perfectly to make sense.  Any college pitcher has to move very quickly though the minors and have immediate success to work out but working in the middle rounds with moldable clay makes that unlikely as well.

Cost control doesn't matter much in this model either.  If a player is good enough to break the arbitration bank it will be worth it in on-field performance and trade/QO value.  In the more likely scenario that they are just solid pitchers the money might be less than a contract signed.  

This is a good summary of what the Twins are attempting to accomplish. The talk of development is still a work in progress though with only Ober among the starting five right now as a player drafted and developed by the Twins.

I still want Varland, another guy drafted and developed, to be the #4 starting pitcher despite the presence of DeSclafani and the 97% of Twins Daily opposed to Varland.

I do believe that if the Twins were to make another gamble trade for a top starting pitcher in the next year there would be an openness to signing that guy to a long term deal.

[Jocko87]

6 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

This is a good summary of what the Twins are attempting to accomplish. The talk of development is still a work in progress though with only Ober among the starting five right now as a player drafted and developed by the Twins.

I still want Varland, another guy drafted and developed, to be the #4 starting pitcher despite the presence of DeSclafani and the 97% of Twins Daily opposed to Varland.

I do believe that if the Twins were to make another gamble trade for a top starting pitcher in the next year there would be an openness to signing that guy to a long term deal.

They don't have to be drafted to be developed.  Another source for pitchers that fit this model is high schoolers drafted by others that they can trade for cheap.

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

They don't have to be drafted to be developed.  Another source for pitchers that fit this model is high schoolers drafted by others that they can trade for cheap.

Sure, agree. I can't think of any teenagers that the Twins have traded for, but SWR was young and is being developed.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The little thing that separates Ober from most other pitchers is size; he is big. Taller pitchers take more time, on average, to reach their potential and then are able to sustain their effectiveness for a longer period of time, if they are able to refine those long levers. Ober is a big dude. He can pitch 200 innings as easily as any pitcher in baseball now that he seems to have managed those limbs. Like he said, physically he doesn't get tired or worn out. It has taken a couple of years for Ober to function comfortably with the mental side of the game, but if you watched him pitch physically tired wasn't a part of the equation. 

One cannot place Bailey Ober at the front of a rotation because he does not possess the type of velocity and stuff to blow hitters away like a Gerrit Cole or even Pablo Lopez. What Ober can do is take the ball every fifth day for an entire season and give the team 5-8 innings of solid pitching. 

The Twins are unlikely to be locking up middle rotation pitchers to long term high value contracts for now. Bailey will make a ton of money by the time his career is completed.

The evidence says otherwise… he was really good last year. Front of a mediocre rotation good, at very minimum.

[tony&rodney]

Just now, Richie the Rally Goat said:

The evidence says otherwise… he was really good last year. Front of a mediocre rotation good, at very minimum.

Sorry if I made it sound as if Ober was not a really good pitcher. I would not label him an ace though and there is always opportunities to trade for an ace if a team is willing to make a big gamble. I do think Ober is outstanding and base my opinions on exactly that chart which I had looked at recently. 

Thanks for putting that up for people to see.

[DocBauer]

I'm a big believer in Ober. And I've said previously I'm still not sure we've seen the best of him. Still think he can take his consistency up a notch. And while I'm a believer, I think I might want to wait until after 2024 to see him toss 160-170 innings yet again. Juuuuuust to make sure.

With his age and control, I could be convinced to sign an extension with him, and buy out his first couple of seasons of FA. But that signs him through what, age 33? He's a smart enough guy that he might want to take the guaranteed $ that buys out those years. But he's also very confident in his ability, so he might want to take that FA "risk". I think an extension through 33yo works if the Twins and he can come to an agreeable, "fair" balance of raises each of those years for Ober without leaping in to the $20M range. Not sure exactly what those numbers would be, but surely they are smart enough to come up with a formula based on expected arbitration numbers and expected, potential offers beyond that, right?

It also might make him more tradeable when...as hoped and expected...the other young arms in the system are arriving to push for a spot. 

[JD-TWINS]

First, the 200 innings comment is just that, a comment. The number of innings he mentioned when interviewed has nothing to do with whether he should be extended. No real reason to debate how many innings he may pitch - a good total would be 160 plus anything IMO. Not very many guys are throwing 200 innings in the 2020’s.

Suggested in the article that Ober might sign for 4-5 years, like A. Ashby, at a rate of $20M. If Ober performs he will be getting more than $20M over the 3 years of arbitration! Seems to me that $30-$32M for 5 years extended past ‘24 is fair. Maybe this isn’t prudent but it seems fair…..he gets security and the Twins may save $20M or more.