The Table Setter, Jan. 22, 2024: Closer and Closers

[Matthew Trueblood]

There are no weekends left before Twins Fest. There are only three before pitchers and catchers report to Fort Myers. It's time to wake up now, baseball executives. You're going to be late for school.

Image courtesy of © Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Maybe that's unjustifiably unkind. The league isn't totally inert. Last Friday, the Astros signed Josh Hader to a five-year deal worth $95 million, and the Angels locked up Robert Stephenson on a three-year deal worth upward of $30 million shortly thereafter. It's just hard to figure out what anyone--including the Astros and Angels--is doing.

How Many Closers Do You Need?
For the Astros, the baffling thing is that Hader is a nigh-historic addition to a bullpen that simply didn't need him very much. Shortly before signing him, they did announce that they'd lost setup man Kendall Graveman to shoulder surgery, and that Graveman will miss the whole of 2024. In truth, though, Graveman himself was a luxury item. As the Twins remember only too well, the Astros' recent playoff success has been fueled in no small part by Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly. 

Since the start of 2022, Pressly has 139 strikeouts against 29 walks in 113 2/3 regular-season innings, plus 23 strikeouts and five walks in 17 scoreless frames in the postseason. Abreu, if possible, has been even better, with a sub-2.00 ERA in each of the last two seasons. He's punched out 188 batters in 132 1/3 frames in the regular season over that span, and has 33 strikeouts in 19 2/3 playoff innings, too.

The Astros are already committed to middle reliever Rafael Montero, too, and their development system churns out hurlers capable of joining the corps of those arms. Hader makes them better, but it all has a whiff of gilding the lily. To be sure, they're an even tougher out in the playoffs, now, but they might not be materially closer to getting there than they were four days ago. It's an irrational marketplace.

How Many Closers Do You Need?
The question of why the Angels signed the second-best reliever on the market is very different, even though you can say it in pretty much exactly the same words. The Angels are going to be terrible this year. Their best player now plays for their obnoxious big brother. Their second-best player is hurt all the time and turns 33 this summer. Their third-best player isn't even their third-best player anymore, and he's hurt all the time, and he turns 34 this summer, and he also hates baseball. Signing a reliever to an eight-figure deal is more like gilding a dandelion, in this case.

Again, though, we're seeing the irrationality of the market, and thus, why the Twins aren't yet being hurt much by the limitations resulting from the uncertainty about the future of their broadcast rights. They weren't going to be in on guys like Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto at the prices the Dodgers paid, even if the Pohlads had sold off some other arm of their empire and shoved all the cash into Derek Falvey's hands. It's not in line with the way the Falvey-led front office likes to do things. For the same reason, they were never going to be in on Hader or Stephenson.

Only now, with some of those big deals (and, realistically, overpays) off the board, is the phase of the offseason in which Falvey was ever going to be interested in participating beginning. The time it has taken for that to happen is to the Twins' advantage, not only because a bit more clarity about their TV money now seems to be on the horizon, but because they can start to use the calendar as a cudgel.

Joe All Day, Joe Every Day, Joe Today, Joe Tomorrow, Joe Forever
If you're sick of Joe Mauer Hall of Fame talk... tough. The Hall will announce its 2024 class tomorrow evening, and Joe Mauer is overwhelmingly likely to be part of it. We're going to have heavy coverage of the event, and further, we're going to spend considerable time over the next few days remembering and reexamining Mauer's career from a variety of angles. This is a special moment. If you do feel that urge to be too cool for it, or to linger in resentment about what he wasn't able to accomplish for the team, I want to plead with you: interrogate that urge, digest it, and then banish it. If you hold this particular moment at arm's length, you'll regret it later. When life offers you an opportunity to share in massive, uncomplicated celebration with people, never pass it up. We should do more of that, rather than less. We should be a little less cool, sometimes, in order to be a little more happy.

Which free agents and trade targets are you still feeling hopeful about? What will you remember most clearly about Mauer's career? Give yourself a break this morning and wade into some baseball talk.

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[Tiantwindup]

a little less cool…a little more happy

well said!!

[Riverbrian]

35 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

How Many Closers Do You Need?

You need your entire bullpen to get outs. 

If you can get outs... You are a closer. We need to stop thinking the last inning is special. Yes I understand that a blown lead in the 9th is game over on the road. I also understand that you only have one inning to come back from a blown lead at home. However... bases loaded nobody out in the 6th inning is a pretty big moment. The 8th is important, so is the 7th. 

Members of the Bullpen will need maintenance days making them unavailable. You can't hide members of your bullpen. It needs to be strong from front to back and back to front. If you have to hide bullpen guys because you don't trust them... you are not bullpen serious and it will bite you.  

The answer to your question that I singled out above is: 8

We need 8 closers it doesn't matter what inning they pitch.  

[Linus]

So not every team builds a bullpen by sifting through the waiver wire?  Who knew?

[USAFChief]

43 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

You need your entire bullpen to get outs. 

If you can get outs... You are a closer. We need to stop thinking the last inning is special. Yes I understand that a blown lead in the 9th is game over on the road. I also understand that you only have one inning to come back from a blown lead at home. However... bases loaded nobody out in the 6th inning is a pretty big moment. The 8th is important, so is the 7th. 

Members of the Bullpen will need maintenance days making them unavailable. You can't hide members of your bullpen. It needs to be strong from front to back and back to front. If you have to hide bullpen guys because you don't trust them... you are not bullpen serious and it will bite you.  

The answer to your question that I singled out above is: 8

We need 8 closers it doesn't matter what inning they pitch.  

This.

Bullpens are important. And getting more important with each passing season as starters pitch fewer and fewer innings. 

I dont know how many times this needs to be said: There are no "low leverage" relievers.

Adding a Josh Hader would be a great idea even if you had 7 Mariano Riveras.

 

 

[Nashvilletwin]

The Astros get it: combine making it through five or six innings giving up 3 or less runs with a complete shutdown bullpen and you have a recipe for lots of wins.

Think about it. What percentage of games will a team win giving up three or fewer runs?  A lot.  How much do “ace” relievers cost vs. “ace” starters? A lot less.  How many starters are out there who can deliver 5-6 innings per start allowing up to three runs (i.e. an average ERA over 4,50). A lot, and a starter fitting that description is not very expensive.

So, for any team, but certainly one on more of a fixed budget, the model of getting one - two top starters (i.e. expensive) with three - four #4 types (i.e. cheap) to go along with three to four top “closer” type bullpen arms (i.e. moderately expensive) is certainly a possible strategy for success.

If we had our choice between an expensive #2 starter (many TDers are clamouring for Snell or Montgomery) or Pressly, Hader and Abreu, which makes the most sense?

Houston is well run.

[Fatbat]

Well the twins need 2 more closers. So Im too lazy to check but is Neris still a FA? Anyone want to see him in a Twins uniform? 

[chpettit19]

35 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The Astros get it: combine making it through five or six innings giving up 3 or less runs with a complete shutdown bullpen and you have a recipe for lots of wins.

Think about it. What percentage of games will a team win giving up three or fewer runs?  A lot.  How much do “ace” relievers cost vs. “ace” starters? A lot less.  How many starters are out there who can deliver 5-6 innings per start allowing up to three runs (i.e. an average ERA over 4,50). A lot, and a starter fitting that description is not very expensive.

So, for any team, but certainly one on more of a fixed budget, the model of getting one - two top starters (i.e. expensive) with three - four #4 types (i.e. cheap) to go along with three to four top “closer” type bullpen arms (i.e. moderately expensive) is certainly a possible strategy for success.

If we had our choice between an expensive #2 starter (many TDers are clamouring for Snell or Montgomery) or Pressly, Hader and Abreu, which makes the most sense?

Houston is well run.

While I agree with the general idea here, "ace" relievers don't cost that much less than "ace" starters. Hader is getting 19 per year guaranteed with a chance at an extra mil every season if he wins the best reliever award. Starting in 2025 Pablo Lopez is going to be making 21.5 mil per year.

Edwin Diaz is getting 20.4 per year. Kenley Jansen is 16. Ryan Pressly is 15. Shoot, washed up Craig Kimbrel is getting 13. Relievers are not so cheap anymore. The Astros top 3 reliever contracts will run them 45.5 million in 2024. Hader at 19, Pressly at 15, and Montero at 11.5. That's not exactly cheap. Add in 8 for Graveman who won't pitch at all, 3.6 for Stanek, and 1.75 for Abreu and that's 6 guys making a combined 58.85 mil for 5 roster spots. Give me Snell and Montgomery for the same amount over 5 pen pieces.

[sweetmusicviola16]

57 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Well the twins need 2 more closers. So Im too lazy to check but is Neris still a FA? Anyone want to see him in a Twins uniform? 

I would like him and he is still available. But I don't see us ponying up the 20-22 mil that he is going to get. After all we have signed Staumont already for 950k.

I am not saying that we should have shelled out 95mil for Hader. I get it the Twins are limited in some things they can do compared to other teams. But Houston signing Hader was not a waste or a dumb thing to do. It made them better,and who knows may have opened the door for other moves down the road. Houston gets it and made a good move.

Edit: 20-22 mil for 2 seasons.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Aroldis Chapman to the Pirates on a 1/10.5 deal. Nice get for Pittsburgh. Team friendly deal and they'll have a good trade piece at the deadline if their season stalls out. They are also putting together a very good Pen. While the Twins sign Josh Staumont. 

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[Doctor Wu]

11 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Aroldis Chapman to the Pirates on a 1/10.5 deal. Nice get for Pittsburgh. Team friendly deal and they'll have a good trade piece at the deadline if their season stalls out. They are also putting together a very good Pen. While the Twins sign Josh Staumont. 

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Yeah, I doubt he lasts the entire season with the Pirates, but as you noted, he most likely will be a valuable trade piece (once again!) when July rolls around. The Pirates have added a few interesting players this off-season. Meanwhile, back in Minnesota ... 

[jmlease1]

I this the "stocking up on closers" issue is complicated. The position of "closer" has been a bit overrated, a fancy word for what became "ninth inning save guy". Saves aren't the greatest stat to evaluate how good a reliever is. A lot of relievers are pretty fungible: good one year, just another guy the next. There are a lot of MLB relievers who vacillate between middle relief to set-up man to closer during their career, and it's not predictably linear.

The elite guys matter. Hader has certainly been one of those, and if you can stack 2-3 of those in the back of your bullpen you can definitely shorten the game for your team, especially in the playoffs. It's a pretty big investment, but if your starters are relatively affordable and the 3rd guy in that group is still pre-arb then it can balance out. 

I think where it goes poorly more often is dropping $7-$10M for 2-3 set-up guys and spending $15-$20M on your closer. You're better off scratching two of those set up guys for an elite reliever at $15-M20M and finding your way with failed starters and so forth, because having 2 or 3 Pagans in your bullpen doesn't really get you the result you need. Most teams are still going to be better off trying to develop their relief corps internally.

Houston has some money invested in their rotation with Javier, McCullers, and Verlander (but they're only spending about $40M between Verlander and Javier, because the Mets are picking up $25M of Verlander's deal this season) but they have a payroll up over $200M. They have the room to spend on the elite guys.

Really the only thing they have to worry about is whether or not they can keep their rotation healthy enough to get to the playoffs and make sure their best two relievers don't get into a pissing match over who gets the save opportunities.

[JD-TWINS]

On 1/22/2024 at 10:07 AM, Riverbrian said:

You need your entire bullpen to get outs. 

If you can get outs... You are a closer. We need to stop thinking the last inning is special. Yes I understand that a blown lead in the 9th is game over on the road. I also understand that you only have one inning to come back from a blown lead at home. However... bases loaded nobody out in the 6th inning is a pretty big moment. The 8th is important, so is the 7th. 

Members of the Bullpen will need maintenance days making them unavailable. You can't hide members of your bullpen. It needs to be strong from front to back and back to front. If you have to hide bullpen guys because you don't trust them... you are not bullpen serious and it will bite you.  

The answer to your question that I singled out above is: 8

We need 8 closers it doesn't matter what inning they pitch.  

Sounds great - not realistic. It’s like demanding 5 guys as good as Sandy Koufax as starters or else!

All innings are important, obviously.

Losing games in the late innings in which your team has spent 2 plus hours getting a lead, hurts your Win/Loss% but it can screw everyone up mentally and create a cloud for a day or 5.

I appreciate the need for a solid Pen, agreed! 27 outs every day is the need, typically at a minimum. Winning 92 & losing 70 out of 162 isn’t a good record because it’s an easy game and we just need 8 “closers” to get it done.

[JD-TWINS]

On 1/22/2024 at 10:42 AM, USAFChief said:

This.

Bullpens are important. And getting more important with each passing season as starters pitch fewer and fewer innings. 

I dont know how many times this needs to be said: There are no "low leverage" relievers.

Adding a Josh Hader would be a great idea even if you had 7 Mariano Riveras.

 

 

I’m all for trading for Devin Williams with 2 years of control at $7.25M …….tremendous improvement to Twins Pen!

[Riverbrian]

4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Sounds great - not realistic. It’s like demanding 5 guys as good as Sandy Koufax as starters or else!

All innings are important, obviously.

Losing games in the late innings in which your team has spent 2 plus hours getting a lead, hurts your Win/Loss% but it can screw everyone up mentally and create a cloud for a day or 5.

I appreciate the need for a solid Pen, agreed! 27 outs every day is the need, typically at a minimum. Winning 92 & losing 70 out of 162 isn’t a good record because it’s an easy game and we just need 8 “closers” to get it done.

Demanding 5 starters as good as Sandy Koufax is absolutely not realistic. 

Taking the suggestion to that level is what makes it not realistic. 

What I'm saying is absolutely realistic. 

You appreciate the need for a solid pen... We agree

Tthe Astros for example... the best bullpen in baseball last year. 

They had Pressly, Abreu, Graveman, Montero, Stanek, Maton - Any of those guys could close a game if needed.

The Rays on a budget built a stable of bullpen arms throwing 97 plus. Any of those guys could close a game if needed. 

The Twins look pretty good this year... I think they have 5 guys who could close games if needed. Duran, Jax, Stewart, Thielbar and Funderburk. 

Bottom Line... What started this conversation is this: Just cause you got Pressly doesn't mean you can't sign Hader.